Technical Analysis:Technical Analysis:Stock

Technical Analysis Technical analysis is a method of evaluating

securities by analyzing the statistics generated bymarket activity, such as past prices and volume.

Technical analysts do not attempt to measure a Technical analysts do not attempt to measure asecurity's intrinsic value, but instead use charts andother tools to identify patterns that can suggestfuture activity.

Volume The number of shares or contracts traded in a security

or an entire market during a given period of time.

It is simply the amount of shares that trade hands fromsellers to buyers as a measure of activity.sellers to buyers as a measure of activity.

If a buyer of a stock purchases 100 shares from a seller,then the volume for that period increases by 100 sharesbased on that transaction.

Intrinsic value The actual value of a company or an asset based on an underlying

perception of its true value including all aspects of the business,.

This value may or may not be the same as the current market value.

For call options, this is the difference between the underlying stock'sprice and the strike price. For put options, it is the difference betweenthe strike price and the underlying stock's price. In the case of both putsthe strike price and the underlying stock's price. In the case of both putsand calls, if the respective difference value is negative, the intrinsic valueis given as zero.

For example, value investors that follow fundamental analysis look atboth qualitative (business model, governance, target market factors etc.)and quantitative (ratios, financial statement analysis, etc.) aspects of abusiness to see if the business is currently out of favor with the marketand is really worth much more than its current valuation.

Assumption of technical analysis The field of technical analysis is based on three

assumptions:

1. The Market Discounts Everything A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only

considers price movement, ignoring the fundamental A major criticism of technical analysis is that it only

considers price movement, ignoring the fundamentalfactors of the company.

Technical analysis assumes that, at any given time, astock's price reflects everything that has or couldaffect the company - including fundamental factors.

2. Price Moves in Trends In technical analysis, price movements are believed to follow

trends. This means that after a trend has been established, the future

price movement is more likely to be in the same direction as thetrend than to be against it. Most technical trading strategies arebased on this assumption.

3. History Tends To Repeat Itself Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends Another important idea in technical analysis is that history tends

to repeat itself, mainly in terms of price movement. The repetitive nature of price movements is attributed to market

psychology; in other words, market participants tend to provide aconsistent reaction to similar market stimuli over time.

Technical analysis uses chart patterns to analyze marketmovements and understand trends. Although many of thesecharts have been used for more than 100 years, they are stillbelieved to be relevant because they illustrate patterns in pricemovements that often repeat themselves.

Candle StickUSING CANDLE STICK TO ANALYZE STOCK MOVEMENT

Candle Stick Grafik lilin atau dalam istilah asing dikenal dengan

candlestick chart merupakan grafik yang paling banyakdigunakan pada saat ini untuk mempresentasikanpergerakan nilai saham.

Candlestick umumnya digunakan untuk trading jangka Candlestick umumnya digunakan untuk trading jangkapendek. Kelebihan candlestick ini adalah mampumenampilkan psikologi pasar.

Tidak seperti grafik garis yang hanya memperlihatkan satunilai saja, candlestick dapat memperlihatkan empat nilaisekaligus, yaitu opening price (harga pembukaan), closingprice (harga penutupan), highest price (harga tertinggi) danlowest price (harga terendah) dalam suatu periode waktutertentu.

Gambar candlestick:

digunakan warna hijau (putih), merah (biru)

Contoh:

Moving AverageSMOOTHING METHOD: SIMPLE MOVING AVERAGE, WEIGHTED MOVING AVEERAGE,EXPONENTIAL MOVING AVERAGE

Moving Average Moving Average (selanjutnya disebut MA), adalah

sebuah metode sederhana yang sangat penting dalamanalisis teknikal.

Dikatakan sederhana, karena MA pada dasarnya hanya Dikatakan sederhana, karena MA pada dasarnya hanyapengembangan dari metode rata-rata yang sudahdikenal, namun metode ini sangat penting danaplikasinya sangatlah luas. Beberapa variasi MA yangsering digunakan antara lain Simple Moving Average(MA/SMA), Weighted Moving Average (WMA), danExponential Moving Average (EMA).

Simple Moving Average (SMA) SMA dibentuk oleh nilai rata-rata dari n periode

terakhir.

Rumus dari SMA orde-n padawaktu t adalahsebagai berikut:sebagai berikut:

n = panjang periode

Xt = harga penutupan periode ke-t

1 ( 1)

t;n

...MA

t t t nX X X

n

Simple Moving Average (SMA)

Contoh:

10;10

110.93 105.98 ... 103.46MA

10

104.0559

No Date Closing SMA-10

1 11/7/2007 110.93

2 11/8/2007 105.98

3 11/9/2007 100.24

4 11/12/2007 101.2094 11/12/2007 101.209

5 12/13/2007 105.27

6 12/14/2007 103

7 12/15/2007 103.65

8 12/16/2001 104.62

9 12/19/2007 102.2

10 12/20/2007 103.46 104.0559

11 12/21/2007 102.05 103.1679

12 12/23/2007 103.9 102.9599

13 12/26/2007 101.78 103.1139

11;10

105.98 100.24 ... 102.05MA

10

103.1679

Weighted Moving Average (WMA) Pembobotan nilai pada WMA tergantung dari

period yang kita tentukan, semakin besar periodmaka semakin pesar pembobotan nilaiperhitungannya.

WMA bisa dihitung menggunakan rumus berikut

1 ( 1)t;n

1 ...1WMA

( 1) ... 1

t t t nnX n X X

n n

Weighted Moving Average (WMA)No Date Closing WMA-10

1 11/7/2007 110.93

2 11/8/2007 105.98

3 11/9/2007 100.24

4 11/12/2007 101.209

5 12/13/2007 105.27

6 12/14/2007 1036 12/14/2007 103

7 12/15/2007 103.65

8 12/16/2001 104.62

9 12/19/2007 102.2

10 12/20/2007 103.46 103.4492

11 12/21/2007 102.05 103.08449

12 12/23/2007 103.9 103.2176

13 12/26/2007 101.78 103.00307

10;10

110.93 2*105.98 ... 10*103.46WMA 104.0559

10

Dari 2 jenis moving average di atas mana yangpaling akurat untuk digunakan dalam memprediksitrend atau harga di masa mendatang ?

Jawabannya tergantung dari pengguna. EMA atau Jawabannya tergantung dari pengguna. EMA atauWMA lebih cepat memberikan signal perubahantrend, sehingga cocok untuk digunakan dalamperdagangan jangka pendek. Untuk pedagangjangka panjang, anda bias menggunakan SMA untukmengurangi false signal.

Exponential Moving Average (EMA) Pemberian bobot pada EMA sama seperti juga pada

WMA, melibatkan periode.

Rumus EMA:

2

Dengan nilai awal EMA diambildarinilai MAsederhana.

t;n prev prev2

EMA EMA EMA1

tXn

Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

No Date Closing SMA-10 EMA-10

1 11/7/2007 110.93

2 11/8/2007 105.98

3 11/9/2007 100.24

4 11/12/2007 101.2094 11/12/2007 101.209

5 12/13/2007 105.27

6 12/14/2007 103

7 12/15/2007 103.65

8 12/16/2001 104.62

9 12/19/2007 102.2

10 12/20/2007 103.46 104.0559 103.947611 12/21/2007 102.05 103.1679 102.964612 12/23/2007 103.9 102.9599 103.130813 12/26/2007 101.78 103.1139 102.8714

Analisis Menggunakan MA MA digunakan untuk memprediksi tren harga

saham.

Agar dalam memprediksikan trend harga lebihakurat, biasanya investor menggunakan kombinasiakurat, biasanya investor menggunakan kombinasidua MA priode yang berbeda, yaitu periode pendekdan panjang. Berikut ini ilustrasi penggunaanMoving Average periode periode pendek (gariswarna biru, MA 5) dan panjang (garis warnamagenta, menggunakan MA 50).

Keterangan dan Keputusan: 1 = MA periode pendek memotong MA periode panjang dari bawah,

perubahan trend menuju kondisi bullish/trend naik. 2 = MA periode pendek memotong MA periode panjang dari atas,

perubahan trend menuju kondisi bearish/trend menurun. 3 = MA dengan periode pendek berada di atas MA berperiode panjang,

kondisi bullish/trend naik. 4 = MA dengan periode pendek berada di bawah MA berperiode

panjang, kondisi bearish/trend menurun

Reference http://www.investopedia.com/university/technical/

techanalysis1.asp

Technical Analysis: StockTechnical AnalysisVolumeIntrinsic valueAssumption of technical analysisSlide Number 6Candle StickCandle StickSlide Number 9Slide Number 10Moving AverageMoving AverageSimple Moving Average (SMA)Simple Moving Average (SMA)Weighted Moving Average (WMA)Weighted Moving Average (WMA)Slide Number 17Exponential Moving Average (EMA)Exponential Moving Average (EMA)Analisis Menggunakan MASlide Number 21Reference