technical analysis of ultratech

7/31/2019 Technical Analysis of UltraTech

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NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

DURGAPUR

(DEEM ED UNIVERSITY)

DEPARTM ENT OF M AN AGEM ENT STUDIES

TECHN ICAL AN ALYSIS OF ULTRATECH CEM EN T

(SECURITY AN ALYSIS AND PORTFOLIO M AN AGEM ENT)

SU B M I T TED T O

Pro f. A VIJAN DUTTA

B Y

BANHI GUHA (0 7 / M B A / 4 7 )

OCTOBER, 2008


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TECHN ICAL AN ALYSIS OF U LTRATECH CEM EN T LTD.

Page 2 o f 55

INDEX

1. INTRODUCTION....3

2. TREND LINES3

3. M OVING AVERAGES..6

a. SIM PLE M OV IN G AVERAGE.... .. ... .. .. ..6

b . EXPON ENTIAL M OVIN G AVERAGE...13

4. M OV IN G AVERAGES CON VERGENCE/ DIV ERGENCE (M ACD)..20

5. BO LLINGER BA NDS...27

6. %K & %D..34

7. RSI...41

8. PORTFOLIO...48

9. PROFIT FROM DIFFERENT M ETHODS.. .. .5 3


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Page 3 o f 55

INTRODUCTION

Technical Analysis of Ult raTech is based on sto ck price of Sensex dat a from 24 t h August 2004

(when the com pany w as l isted) t i l l 12 t h Septem ber 2008.

TREND LINES

Technical Analysis is based on past behavior and is used to predict the future. One of most

common and easy way of predict ion of future is by t rend l ines which is done ei ther by taking

dai ly data or w eekly data or m ont hly data (here m ont hly data are taken) and candle st ick type

char t are drawn to understand the past behavior and help to predict the future and helps in

decision m aking when t o buy a par t icu lar stock and w hen t o sell the same stock or to ho ld the

same.

The t able below is the m ont hly open, h igh, low and close pr ice of Ul t raTech Cem ent Ltd

Date OpenPrice

HighPrice

LowPrice

ClosePrice

Date OpenPrice

HighPrice

LowPrice

ClosePrice

Aug-04 305 338.7 249 265.95 Sep-06 773.8 921.4 762 891.15

Sep-04 267.5 283 254 266.6 Oct-06 890 919.75 860 880.5

Oct-04 269.5 353 264 303.75 Nov-06 871 936.5 860 898.75

Nov-04 303 310 276 295.2 Dec-06 902 1,155.00 895 1,096.90

Dec-04 295 351 294 340.3 Jan-07 1,108.00 1,204.95 985 993.7

Jan-05 342 360 311 343.75 Feb-07 991 1,140.05 820 891.1

Feb-05 346 391 338 372.25 Mar-07 900 928 715 770.45

Mar-05 360 392.9 338 354.55 Apr-07 742.5 860 662 820.3

Apr-05 356.8 377.85 331 333.4 M ay-07 837.95 859.95 790 827

May-05 341 367 315 324.9 Jun-07 829.5 916.2 779 900.05

Jun-05 325.2 358.5 314 352.45 Jul-07 902 1,004.00 851 932.15Jul-05 348 430 348 380.75 Aug-07 901.1 950 808 920.5

Aug-05 384.85 448.4 375 439.05 Sep-07 922 1,090.00 922 1,042.55

Sep-05 442.9 495 406 466.3 Oct-07 1,048.00 1,165.00 969 999.15

Oct-05 475 475 381 398.15 Nov-07 1,010.00 1,070.00 870 987.4

Nov-05 403 477.05 403 450 Dec-07 1,005.00 1,050.00 926 1,014.50

Dec-05 455.95 464.5 415 427.15 Jan-08 1,040.00 1,040.00 731 860.6

Jan-06 434.5 539.9 421 518.55 Feb-08 865 925 785 911.35

Feb-06 528.95 565 498 560.5 Mar-08 890 940 750 779.85

Mar-06 565 689 563 684.45 Apr-08 780 843 755 761.05

Apr-06 690 885 690 859.65 M ay-08 779 779 625 650.25

May-06 811.25 883.9 585 605.45 Jun-08 655 660 538 544.85

Jun-06 611 751.85 501 749.95 Jul-08 538 598 500 574.15Jul-06 750 761 599 722.1 Aug-08 567 650 552 590.3

Aug-06 699 78 1.4 699 769 Sep-08 595.95 613 557 565.5

The graph in next page show s the candle st ick of t he above data w i th support and resistance

line.


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TECHN ICAL ANA LYSIS OF ULTRA TECH CEM ENT LTD.

Page 4 o f 55

0

20 0

40 0

60 0

80 0

1000

1200

1400

Support l ines

support at 260

support at 315

support at 350

support at 400

support at 425 support at 600

support at 500 support at 715

support at 660

support at 550

resistance at 885

resistance at 390

support at 730

support at 500

resistance at 390 resistance at 495

resistance at 475 resistance at 880

resistance at 650

resistance at 104 0

resistance at 1165resistance at 1140resistance at 1200

Resistance l ines


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Page 5 o f 55

0

20 0

40 0

60 0

80 0

1000

1200

Bearish Trend

Bull ish Trend

The g raph is d rawn w i th thehelp of c lose pr ice wi t h

month l y da ta


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Page 6 o f 55

M OVING AVERAGES

M oving averages are one of t he m ost popular and easy t o use tools avai lable to t he t echnical

analyst . They smooth a data ser ies and make i t easier to spot t rends, something that is

especia l ly helpfu l in volat i le markets. They also form the bui ld ing b locks for many other

techn ical indicator s and over lays.

The tw o m ost popu lar types of mo ving averages are the Sim ple M oving Average (SM A) and the

Exponent ia l M oving Average (EM A). They are descr ibed in m ore det ai l below.

A) SIM PLE M OVIN G AVERAGE (SM A)

A sim ple m oving average is form ed by com put ing the average (m ean) pr ice of a secur i ty ( in t h is

case UltraTech stock price is taken) over a specif ied number of periods. While i t is possible to

create moving averages f rom the Open, the High, and the Low data points, most moving

averages are created using the closing price.

For Ult raTech 200 Days & 5 Days SM A are taken 2 00 Days can be t aken fo r long ru n and 5Days

is taken for shor t run.

A 200 Day sim ple m oving average is calculated by add ing the closing prices for t he last 200 Days

and div id ing the t ota l by 200.

The calculat ion is repeated for each price bar on the chart. The averages are then joined to

form a sm oot h curving l ine - the mov ing average l ine fo r next SM A new per iod w ou ld be added

and the o ldest d ay, w ould be d ropped . As new days are added, the o ld days wi l l be subt racted

and the m ov ing average w i ll con t inue to m ove over t ime.

(The f i rst par t of th e table and the last par t of t he table is been show n here)

Sl

No

Date Close

Price

200 D

SM A

5 Days

SM A

Sl

No

Date Close

Price

200 D

SM A

5 Days

SM A

1 24-Aug-04 260.35 15 13-Sep-04 260.2 260.68

2 25-Aug-04 255.8 16 14-Sep-04 261.55 259.96

3 26-Aug-04 270.15 17 15-Sep-04 263.85 260.02

4 27-Aug-04 262.7 18 16-Sep-04 265.25 261.95

5 30-Aug-04 266 263 19 17-Sep-04 271.25 264.42

6 31-Aug-04 265.95 264.12 20 20-Sep-04 277.7 267.92

7 01-Sep-04 267.35 266.43 21 21-Sep-04 277.45 271.1

8 02-Sep-04 263.15 265.03 22 22-Sep-04 279.3 274.19

9 03-Sep-04 262.8 265.05 23 23-Sep-04 269.55 275.05

10 06-Sep-04 265.55 264.96 24 24-Sep-04 270.35 274.87

11 07-Sep-04 265.15 264.8 25 27-Sep-04 272.85 273.9

12 08-Sep-04 263.55 264.04 26 28-Sep-04 266.05 271.62

13 09-Sep-04 255.6 262.53 27 29-Sep-04 264.2 268.6

14 10-Sep-04 258.9 261.75 28 30-Sep-04 266.6 268.01


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Page 7 o f 55

Sl

No

Date Close

Price

200 D

SM A

5 Days

SM A

Sl N o Date Close

Price

200 D

SM A

5 Days

SM A

And t he last part of t he table is show n below , the complet e table is been don e in M S-Excel

95 2 12-Jun-08 638.3 893.90 630.7 98 4 28-Ju l-08 560.4 824.10 553.2

95 3 13-Jun-08 632 892.69 629.4 98 5 29-Ju l-08 548.6 821.40 554.94

95 4 16-Jun-08 621.95 891.28 629.6 98 6 30-Ju l-08 556.6 818.69 551.93

95 5 17-Jun-08 628.25 889.87 632.1 98 7 31-Ju l-08 574.1 816.02 558.06

95 6 18-Jun-08 632.1 888.43 630.5 98 8 01-Aug-08 566.5 813.15 561.27

95 7 19-Jun-08 626.5 886.94 628.1 98 9 04-Aug-08 574.7 810.45 564.14

95 8 20-Jun-08 592.4 885.30 620.2 99 0 05-Aug-08 612.3 807.89 576.89

95 9 23-Jun-08 574.2 883.44 610.6 99 1 06-Aug-08 632.6 805.84 592.08

96 0 24-Jun-08 562.7 881.36 597.5 99 2 07-Aug-08 633.7 803.98 603.99

96 1 25-Jun-08 569.9 879.30 585.1 99 3 08-Aug-08 631.3 802.04 616.94

96 2 26-Jun-08 592.9 877.26 578.4 99 4 11-Aug-08 634.6 800.10 628.92

96 3 27-Jun-08 568.0 875.11 573.5 99 5 12-Aug-08 634.5 798.19 633.35

96 4 30-Jun-08 544.8 872.91 567.6 99 6 13-Aug-08 633.1 796.41 633.45

96 5 01-Ju l-08 522.3 870.65 559.6 99 7 14-Aug-08 617.3 794.44 630.18

96 6 02-Ju l-08 541.3 868.45 553.9 99 8 18-Aug-08 610.3 792.34 625.99

96 7 03-Ju l-08 534.2 866.15 542.1 99 9 19-Aug-08 610 790.40 621.06

96 8 04-Ju l-08 537.5 863.97 536.0 1000 20-Aug-08 608.6 788.45 615.89

96 9 07-Ju l-08 552.2 861.86 537.5 1001 21-Aug-08 592.0 786.46 607.68

97 0 08-Ju l-08 555.9 859.74 544.2 1002 22-Aug-08 585 784.52 601.21

97 1 09-Ju l-08 566.5 857.58 549.2 1003 25-Aug-08 594.2 782.61 597.9997 2 10-Ju l-08 554.6 855.29 553.3 1004 26-Aug-08 591.0 780.65 594.2

97 3 11-Ju l-08 551.35 852.80 556.1 1005 27-Aug-08 594.8 778.71 591.43

97 4 14-Ju l-08 541.5 850.25 553.9 1006 28-Aug-08 590.4 776.77 591.1

97 5 15-Ju l-08 529.85 847.60 548.7 1007 29-Aug-08 590.3 774.86 592.16

97 6 16-Ju l-08 530.2 844.84 541.5 1008 01-Sep-08 598.0 773.06 592.92

97 7 17-Ju l-08 520.15 842.25 534.6 1009 02-Sep-08 608.4 771.18 596.4

97 8 18-Ju l-08 539.85 839.74 532.3 1010 04-Sep-08 605.0 769.06 598.45

97 9 21-Ju l-08 538.65 837.13 531.7 1011 05-Sep-08 588.9 766.94 598.16

98 0 22-Ju l-08 539.9 834.31 533.7 1012 08-Sep-08 581 764.84 596.3

98 1 23-Ju l-08 571.7 831.70 542.0 1013 09-Sep-08 582.8 762.57 593.25

98 2 24-Ju l-08 543.5 829.00 546.7 1014 10-Sep-08 588.2 760.32 589.2

98 3 25-Ju l-08 550.5 826.58 548.8 1015 11-Sep-08 584.3 758.27 585.06

And below are the graphs show ing the s imple m oving averages of 200D & 5 D of SM A w ith c lose

pr ice to get t he buy and sel l signal ei ther fo r long or shor t term according to SM A taken.


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Page 8 o f 55

25 0

26 0

27 0

28 0

29 0

30 0

31 0

32 0

33 0

34 0

35 0

01-Aug-04 21-Aug-04 10-Sep-04 30-Sep-04 20-Oct -04 09-No v-04 29-Nov-04 19-Dec-04 08-Jan-05

Close Pr ice 200 Days M A 5 Days M A

Sel l at 263 on 2nd Sep

Buy a t 302 on 7 th Dec

Buy at 260 on 13th Sep

Sel l at 295 on 3rd Dec

2004

Buy at 286 on 25th OctBuy a t 265 on 5 th Oct

Sel l a t 270 o n 23rd Sep

Sel l at 316 on 21 Dec

Sel l at 300 on 4th Nov

Sel l at 304 on 11th Oct

Buy a t 308 on 23 DecBuy a t 280 on 24 th Nov


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Page 9 o f 55

30 0

32 0

34 0

36 0

38 0

40 0

42 0

44 0

46 0

48 0

50 0

29-Dec-04 17-Feb-05 08-Apr -05 28-M ay-05 17-Ju l-05 05-Sep-05 25-Oct -05 14-Dec-05


Sel l at 370 on 16th Feb

Buy at 325 on 27th JanBuy at 360 on 24th Feb

Sel l at 340 on 10th Jan

Se l la t 374 on 14 th Mar

Buy a t 353 on 4 th May

Se l la t 348 on 11 th May

Sel l at 360 on 20th Apr

Buy a t 410 on 01st Nov


Buy a t 355 on 31 th M ar

Sel l at 459 on 23rd Nov

Sel l at 374 on 15th July

Buy at 361 on 22nd July

Sel l a t 418 on 19th Aug

Buy a t 407 on 25 th Aug


Long Term Buy at 410 on 20th Jun

Sel l at 441 on 21st Dec


2005


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Page 10 o f 55

35 0

45 0

55 0

65 0

75 0

85 0

95 0

1050

29-Dec-05 17-Feb -06 08-Apr -06 28-M ay-06 17-Ju l-06 05-Sep-06 25-Oct -06 14-Dec-06

Clo se Pr ice 200 Days M A 5 Days M A

Sel l at 727 on 14t h Jul

Buy at 436 on 3rd Jan

Se l la t 837 on 2nd M ay

Buy at 651 on 26th JulBuy at 631 on 15th Jun

Sel l at 764 on 23rd Aug

Buy a t 769 on 31st Aug

2006


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Page 11 o f 55

650.00

750.00

850.00

950.00

1,050.00

1,150.00


Clo se Pr ice 200 Days M A 5 Days M A

Long Term Buy at 904 on 27th Aug



Buy a t 852 on 22nd Aug


Buy a t 693 on 5st Apr

Sel l a t 967 on 24th Jul

Buy a t 753 on 14 th Mar


Long Term Sel l at 812 on 5th M ar

Buy at 1060 on 1st Feb

Sel l at 788 on 23rd Mar

Buy a t 984 on 13 th Nov

Buy at 1071 on 12th Jan

2007


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Page 12 o f 55

50 0

60 0

70 0

80 0

90 0

1000

29-Dec-07 17-Feb-08 07-Apr -08 27-M ay-08 16-Ju l-08 04-Sep-08


Long Term Sel l at 871 on 16nd Jan



Buy at 863 on 14th Feb


Buy at 539 on 18th Jul


2008


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Page 13 o f 55

B) EXPON ENTIAL M OVING AVERAGE (EM A)

In order t o redu ce the lag in sim ple m oving averages, technicians of ten use exponent ial m oving

averages (also called exponent ial ly w eighted m oving averages). EM A's reduce th e lag by

apply ing more weight to recent pr ices re lat ive to o lder pr ices. The weight ing appl ied to the

most recent pr ice depends on the speci f ied per iod of the moving average. The shor ter the

EM A's per iod, the m ore w eight w i l l be appl ied to the m ost recent p r ice.

Exponent ia l M oving Average Form ula

EM A (curren t) = {(Pr ice (current ) EM A (previous) } x M ult ip l ier) + EM A(previous)

M ult ip l ier = {2 / (Time per iods + 1)}

N O T E: Th e s im p l e m o v i n g a v e r a g e i s u s ed f o r t h e f i r s t c a l cu l a t i o n o n l y . A f t e r t h a t t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d ' s

EM A i s u s e d .


Sl

No

Date Close

Price

200 D

EM A

5 Days

EM A

Sl

No

Date Close

Price

200

DEM A

5 Days

EM A

1 24-Aug-04 260.35 FIRST VA LUE 23 23-Sep-04 269.55 272.93

2 25-Aug-04 255.8 322.03 263 24 24-Sep-04 270.35 272.07

3 26-Aug-04 270.15 M ULTIPLIER 25 27-Sep-04 272.85 272.33

4 27-Aug-04 262.7 0.0099 0.3333 26 28-Sep-04 266.05 270.23

5 30-Aug-04 266 27 29-Sep-04 264.2 268.22

6 31-Aug-04 265.95 263.98 28 30-Sep-04 266.6 267.68

7 01-Sep-04 267.35 265.10 29 01-Oct -04 265.05 266.80

8 02-Sep-04 263.15 264.45 30 04-Oct -04 269.15 267.58

9 03-Sep-04 262.8 263.90 31 05-Oct -04 265.7 266.9510 06-Sep-04 265.55 264.45 32 06-Oct -04 295.25 276.38

11 07-Sep-04 265.15 264.68 33 07-Oct -04 316.25 289.67

12 08-Sep-04 263.55 264.30 34 08-Oct -04 319.2 299.51

13 09-Sep-04 255.6 261.40 35 09-Oct -04 314.95 304.66

14 10-Sep-04 258.9 260.56 36 11-Oct -04 304.2 304.50

15 13-Sep-04 260.2 260.44 37 12-Oct -04 301.15 303.38

16 14-Sep-04 261.55 260.81 38 14-Oct -04 288.6 298.45

17 15-Sep-04 263.85 261.82 39 15-Oct -04 289.9 295.60

18 16-Sep-04 265.25 262.96 40 18-Oct -04 286.2 292.47

19 17-Sep-04 271.25 265.72 41 19-Oct -04 286.4 290.44

20 20-Sep-04 277.7 269.71 42 20-Oct -04 285.6 288.83

21 21-Sep-04 277.45 272.29 43 21-Oct -04 291.05 289.57

22 22-Sep-04 279.3 274.63 44 25-Oct -04 286.65 288.59


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Page 14 o f 55

Sl

No

Date Close

Price

200 D

EM A

5 Days

EM A

Sl N o Date Close

Price

200 D

EM A

5 Days

EM A


95 2 12-Jun-08 638.3 831.26 552.27 98 4 28-Ju l-08 560.4 757.33 552.27

95 3 13-Jun-08 632 829.28 551.05 98 5 29-Ju l-08 548.6 755.25 551.05

95 4 16-Jun-08 621.95 827.22 552.91 98 6 30-Ju l-08 556.6 753.28 552.91

95 5 17-Jun-08 628.25 825.24 559.99 98 7 31-Ju l-08 574.1 751.49 559.99

95 6 18-Jun-08 632.1 823.32 562.17 98 8 01-Aug-08 566.5 749.65 562.17

95 7 19-Jun-08 626.5 821.36 566.36 98 9 04-Aug-08 574.7 747.91 566.36

95 8 20-Jun-08 592.4 819.08 581.69 99 0 05-Aug-08 612.3 746.56 581.69

95 9 23-Jun-08 574.2 816.64 598.66 99 1 06-Aug-08 632.6 745.43 598.66

96 0 24-Jun-08 562.7 814.12 610.34 99 2 07-Aug-08 633.7 744.32 610.34

96 1 25-Jun-08 569.9 811.69 617.32 99 3 08-Aug-08 631.3 743.19 617.32

96 2 26-Jun-08 592.9 809.51 623.10 99 4 11-Aug-08 634.6 742.11 623.10

96 3 27-Jun-08 568.0 807.11 626.90 99 5 12-Aug-08 634.5 741.04 626.9096 4 30-Jun-08 544.8 804.50 628.96 99 6 13-Aug-08 633.1 739.97 628.96

96 5 01-Ju l-08 522.3 801.69 625.09 99 7 14-Aug-08 617.3 738.75 625.09

96 6 02-Ju l-08 541.3 799.10 620.18 99 8 18-Aug-08 610.3 737.47 620.18

96 7 03-Ju l-08 534.2 796.46 616.78 99 9 19-Aug-08 610 736.20 616.78

96 8 04-Ju l-08 537.5 793.89 614.07 1000 20-Aug-08 608.6 734.93 614.07

96 9 07-Ju l-08 552.2 791.48 606.73 1001 21-Aug-08 592.0 733.51 606.73

97 0 08-Ju l-08 555.9 789.14 599.48 1002 22-Aug-08 585 732.03 599.48

97 1 09-Ju l-08 566.5 786.92 597.74 1003 25-Aug-08 594.2 730.66 597.74

97 2 10-Ju l-08 554.6 784.61 595.51 1004 26-Aug-08 591.0 729.27 595.51

97 3 11-Ju l-08 551.35 782.29 595.27 1005 27-Aug-08 594.8 727.94 595.2797 4 14-Ju l-08 541.5 779.89 593.64 1006 28-Aug-08 590.4 726.57 593.64

97 5 15-Ju l-08 529.85 777.41 592.53 1007 29-Aug-08 590.3 725.21 592.53

97 6 16-Ju l-08 530.2 774.95 594.37 1008 01-Sep-08 598.0 723.95 594.37

97 7 17-Ju l-08 520.15 772.41 599.06 1009 02-Sep-08 608.4 722.80 599.06

97 8 18-Ju l-08 539.85 770.10 601.05 1010 04-Sep-08 605.0 721.62 601.05

97 9 21-Ju l-08 538.65 767.79 597.02 1011 05-Sep-08 588.9 720.30 597.02

98 0 22-Ju l-08 539.9 765.53 591.68 1012 08-Sep-08 581 718.92 591.68

98 1 23-Ju l-08 571.7 763.60 588.72 1013 09-Sep-08 582.8 717.56 588.72

98 2 24-Ju l-08 543.5 761.41 588.54 1014 10-Sep-08 588.2 716.28 588.54

98 3 25-Ju l-08 550.5 759.31 587.14 1015 11-Sep-08 584.3 714.96 587.14


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Page 15 o f 55

25 0

26 0

27 0

28 0

29 0

30 0

31 0

32 0

33 0

34 0

21-Aug-04 10-Sep-04 30-Sep-04 20-Oct -04 09-Nov-04 29-Nov-04 19-Dec-04

Close Pr ice 200 Days EM A 5 Days EM A

Sell at 267 on 1st Sep


Sel l at 269 on 23th Sep

Buy a t 265 on 5 th Oct

Sel l a t 304 on 11th Oct


Sel l a t 300 on 4th Nov


2004


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Page 16 o f 55

30 0

32 0

34 0

36 0

38 0

40 0

42 0

44 0

46 0

48 0

50 0

01-Jan-05 20-Feb-05 11-Apr -05 31-M ay-05 20-Ju l-05 08-Sep-05 28-Oct -05 17-Dec-05



2005


2005





Buy a t 329 on 3 rd M ay

Se l l a t 350 on 13 th May

Buy at 325 on 20th Jun

Sel l at 465 on 3rd Oct




Sel l at 438 on 22th Dec


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Page 18 o f 55

650.00

750.00

850.00

950.00

1,050.00

1,150.00



2007Sel l at 1130 on 19th Jan

Buy at 1060 on 1st Feb


Buy a t 693 on 5 t h Apr

Sel l a t 967 on 24th Jul

Buy a t 867 on 23rd Aug



Long Term Sel l at 883 on 2nd M ar



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Page 19 o f 55

45 0

55 0

65 0

75 0

85 0

95 0

29-Dec-07 17-Feb-08 07-Ap r-08 27-M ay-08 16-Ju l-08 04-Sep-08


2008

Long Term Sell at 909 on 11th Jan









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Page 20 o f 55

M OV ING AV ERAGES CON VERGENCE / DIV ERGENCE (M ACD)

I t is a techn ical analysis indicato r created b y Gerald Appel in t he 196 0s. I t show s th e dif fere nce

betw een a f ast and s low exponent ia l m oving average (EM A) of c losing pr ices. Dur ing the 1980s

M ACD proved to be a valuable tool for any t r ader . W ith t he emergence of com put er ized

analysis, it h as becom e highly unreliable in th e mo dern er a, and standard M ACD based tr adeexecut ion n ow prod uces a greater d ist r ibut ion of losing t rades, som e addi t ions have been m ade

to M ACD over the years but even w i th t he addi t ion of t he M ACD histo gram, i t remains a lagging

indicator . I t has of ten been cr i t icized for f a i l ing to respond in m i ld/volat i le market condi t ions.

M ost st rat egies no longer recom m end using M ACD as the p r imary m ethod of analysis, but

instead bel ieve, i t should be used as a moni tor ing tool only. I t is prone to whipsaw, and i f a

trader is not careful i t is possible that they might suffer substantial loss, especial ly i f they are

leveraged or t rading opt ion s. The standard per iods recomm ended b ack in t he 1960s by Gerald

Appel are 12 and 26 d ays:

M ACD Form ula

M ACD = EM A 26 Day EM A 12 Day

Signal = EM A 9 Day of M ACD

A signal l ine (or t r igger l ine) is then form ed by smo ot hing th is wi t h a fur t her EM A. The standardperio d fo r th is is 9 days; the signal l ine crossing is th e usual trading rule. This is to bu y w hen t he

M ACD crosses up t hro ugh t he s ignal l ine, or sell w hen i t crosses down thro ugh th e s ignal l ine.

These crossings m ay occur to o frequ ent ly, and o th er tests m ay have to be app lied. A crossing of

the M ACD l ine up thr ough zero is in terp reted as bul l ish, or dow n th rough zero as bear ish.


Sl

No

Date Close Price 26 D EM A 12 D EM A 9 D EM A of

M ACD (SignalLine)

Difference

(M ACD)

1 24-Aug-04 260.35 First Valu e

2 25-Aug-04 255.8 2 6 6 .0 9 0 4 2 6 4 .0 4 1 7 -4 .6 7 9 9 3 4

3 26-Aug-04 270.15 Mul t ip l ie r

4 27-Aug-04 262.7 0 .0 7 4 0 7 4 0 .1 5 3 8 4 6 0 .2

5 30-Aug-04 266

6 31-Aug-04 265.95

7 01-Sep-04 267.35

8 02-Sep-04 263.15

9 03-Sep-04 262.8

10 06-Sep-04 265.55

11 07-Sep-04 265.15

12 08-Sep-04 263.55

13 09-Sep-04 255.6 262.7429

14 10-Sep-04 258.9 262.1517


21/55


Page 21 o f 55

Sl No Date Close

Price

26 D EM A 12 D EM A 9 D EM A

of M ACD

(Signal

Line)

Difference

(M ACD)


98 4 28-Ju l-08 560.4 561.4802 549.0779 18.6147 12.40227

98 5 29-Ju l-08 548.6 560.5261 549.0044 17.1961 11.52171

98 6 30-Ju l-08 556.6 560.239 550.1806 15.7685 10.05834

98 7 31-Ju l-08 574.1 561.2694 553.8682 14.0950 7.401189

98 8 01-Aug-08 566.5 561.6606 555.8193 12.4443 5.8413

98 9 04-Aug-08 574.7 562.6301 558.7317 10.7351 3.898466

99 0 05-Aug-08 612.3 566.3131 566.9807 8.45461 -0.66755

99 1 06-Aug-08 632.6 571.2232 577.0759 5.59315 -5.8527

99 2 07-Aug-08 633.7 575.8511 585.7873 2.48728 -9.9361899 3 08-Aug-08 631.3 579.9585 592.7893 -0.5763 -12.8308

99 4 11-Aug-08 634.6 584.0097 599.2294 -3.5050 -15.2197

99 5 12-Aug-08 634.5 587.7497 604.6556 -6.18519 -16.9059

99 6 13-Aug-08 633.1 591.109 609.0317 -8.5326 -17.9227

99 7 14-Aug-08 617.3 593.0528 610.3114 -10.277 -17.2587

99 8 18-Aug-08 610.3 594.334 610.3174 -11.418 -15.9833

99 9 19-Aug-08 610 595.4945 610.2685 -12.089 -14.774

1000 20-Aug-08 608.6 596.469 610.0195 -12.3821 -13.5506

1001 21-Aug-08 592.0 596.1416 607.255 -12.128 -11.1133

1002 22-Aug-08 585 595.3163 603.8311 -11.405 -8.51481

1003 25-Aug-08 594.2 595.2373 602.3571 -10.548 -7.11978

1004 26-Aug-08 591.0 594.9272 600.6176 -9.5768 -5.69039

1005 27-Aug-08 594.8 594.9178 599.7226 -8.6224 -4.8048

1006 28-Aug-08 590.4 594.5831 598.2883 -7.6389 -3.70521

1007 29-Aug-08 590.3 594.2658 597.0593 -6.6699 -2.79351

1008 01-Sep-08 598.0 594.5461 597.2118 -5.8690 -2.66561

1009 02-Sep-08 608.4 595.5761 598.9407 -5.36816 -3.36465

1010 04-Sep-08 605.0 596.2778 599.8806 -5.01508 -3.60277

1011 05-Sep-08 588.9 595.735 598.199 -4.50485 -2.463941012 08-Sep-08 581 594.6435 595.553 -3.78577 -0.90943

1013 09-Sep-08 582.8 593.7662 593.591 -2.99356 0.175267

1014 10-Sep-08 588.2 593.3539 592.7616 -2.27638 0.592334

1015 11-Sep-08 584.3 592.687 591.4675 -1.57721 1.219468


22/55


Page 22 o f 55

-1 2

-1 0

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

10

-O

ct

-04

20

-O

ct

-04

30

-O

ct

-04

09

-N

ov

-04

19

-N

ov

-04

29

-N

ov

-04

09

-D

ec

-04

19

-D

ec

-04

29

-D

ec

-04

M ACD 9 D EM A o f M ACD

2004

BULLISH TREND


Sel l a t 305 on 28th Oct



BEARISH TREND


23/55


Page 23 o f 55

-2 0

-1 5

-1 0

-5

0

5

10

15

29

-D

ec

-04

17

-F

eb

-05

08

-A

pr

-05

28

-M

ay

-05

17

-J

ul-05

05

-S

ep

-05

25

-O

ct

-05

14

-D

ec

-05


2005

BULLISH TREND




Se l la t 364 on 6 th May

BEARISH TREND

BULLISH TREND

Buy a t 336 on 17 th M ay


Buy a t 345 on 26 th Apr

Sel l a t 329 on 9th Jun

BEARISH TREND



Se l la t 431 on 7 th Nov


24/55


Page 24 o f 55

-6 0

-4 0

-2 0

0

20

40

29

-D

ec

-05

17

-F

eb

-06

08

-A

pr

-06

28

-M

ay

-06

17

-J

ul-06

05

-S

ep

-06

25

-O

ct

-06

14

-D

ec

-06


2006

BULLISH TREND




Sel l at 631 on 15th Jun

BEARISH TREND


Sel l a t 916 on 01st Dec

Sel l at 738 on 28th Jul


25/55


Page 25 o f 55

-5 0

-3 0

-1 0

10

30

50

70

29

-D

ec

-06

17

-F

eb

-07

08

-A

pr

-07

28

-M

ay

-07

17

-J

ul-07

05

-S

ep

-07

25

-O

ct

-07

14

-D

ec

-07


2007

BULLISH TREND


Buy at 1111 on 22nd Jan


Sel l at 1120on 7th Feb

BEARISH TREND

Buy a t 1062 on 9 th Feb

Buy at 929 on 26st Jul

Se l l a t 797 on 20 th Mar

Sel l at 1030 on 14st Nov

Buy at 1044 on 18st Oct

Sel l a t 919 on 29st Aug


26/55


Page 26 o f 55

-2 0

-1 0

0

10

20

30

40

50

29

-D

ec

-07

17

-F

eb

-08

07

-A

pr

-08

27

-M

ay

-08

1

6-

Ju

l-08

04

-S

ep

-08


2008

BULLISH TRENDSel l at 809 on 3rd Apr

Buy a t 761 on 30 th AprBuy at 970 on 8th Jan

Sel l at 644 on 3rd Jun

BEARISH TREND


Buy at 574 on 23rd Jun





27/55


Page 27 o f 55

B0LLINGER BAND S

Boll inger Bands are a technical trading tool created by John Boll inger in the early 1980s. They

arose f rom the need for adapt ive t rading bands and the observat ion that volat i l i ty was

dynam ic, not stat ic as w as w idely bel ieved at the t ime.

The purp ose of Bol l inger Bands is to p rovide a re lat ive def in i t ion of h igh and low . By def in i t ion

pr ices are h igh at the u pper band and low at t he low er band. This def in i t ion can aid in r igorous

pat t ern recogni t ion and is useful in com par ing pr ice act ion to the act ion o f indicators to arr iveat system atic tr ading decisions.

Boll inger Bands consist of a set o f th ree curves draw n in relat ion to securit ies pr ices. The m idd leband is a measure of the intermediate- term t rend, usual ly a s imple moving average, which

serves as the base for the up per and low er bands. The interval betw een the u pper and low er

bands and t he m iddle band is determ ined by volat i l i ty , typical ly the standard deviat ion of the

same data that were used for the average. The defaul t parameters, 20 per iods and two

standard deviat ions, may b e adjusted t o sui t p urpo ses.FORM ULA FOR BOLLINGER BAN D

M iddle Bol l inger Band = 2 0-per iod s im ple m oving average

Upper Bol l inger Band = M iddle Bol l inger Band + 2 * 20-per iod standard deviat ion

Low er Bol l inger Band = M iddle Bol l inger Band - 2 * 20-per iod standard deviat ion


Sl

No

Date Close

Price

20 D SM A 20 D SD M BB (20 D

SM A)

UBB LBB

1 24-Aug-04 260.35

20 20-Sep-04 277.7 264.14 5.01821 264.14 274.1764 254.1036

21 21-Sep-04 277.45 264.995 5.70885 264.995 276.4127 253.5773

22 22-Sep-04 279.3 266.17 6.10038 266.17 278.3708 253.9692

23 23-Sep-04 269.55 266.14 6.08218 266.14 278.3044 253.9756

24 24-Sep-04 270.35 266.5225 6.09435 266.5225 278.7112 254.3338

25 27-Sep-04 272.85 266.865 6.24596 266.865 279.3569 254.3731

26 28-Sep-04 266.05 266.87 6.24527 266.87 279.3605 254.3795

27 29-Sep-04 264.2 266.7125 6.27084 266.7125 279.2542 254.1708

28 30-Sep-04 266.6 266.885 6.2177 266.885 279.3204 254.4496

29 01-Oct -04 265.05 266.9975 6.16288 266.9975 279.3233 254.6717

30 04-Oct -04 269.15 267.1775 6.17054 267.1775 279.5186 254.8364

31 05-Oct -04 265.7 267.205 6.16267 267.205 279.5303 254.8797


28/55


Page 28 o f 55

Sl N o Date Close

Price

20 D SM A 20 D SD M BB (20 D

SM A)

UBB LBB


98 4 28-Ju l-08 560.4 544.11 13.4224 544.11 570.9549 517.265198 5 29-Ju l-08 548.6 545.4225 12.4809 545.4225 570.3843 520.4607

98 6 30-Ju l-08 556.6 546.1875 12.6752 546.1875 571.5379 520.8371

98 7 31-Ju l-08 574.1 548.185 13.7325 548.185 575.6499 520.7201

98 8 01-Aug-08 566.5 549.6375 14.058 549.6375 577.7534 521.5216

98 9 04-Aug-08 574.7 550.7625 15.0848 550.7625 580.9321 520.5929

99 0 05-Aug-08 612.3 553.585 20.1969 553.585 593.9789 513.1911

99 1 06-Aug-08 632.6 556.89 26.473 556.89 609.8361 503.9439

99 2 07-Aug-08 633.7 560.845 31.3035 560.845 623.4519 498.2381

99 3 08-Aug-08 631.3 564.8425 34.7507 564.8425 634.344 495.34199 4 11-Aug-08 634.6 569.5 37.4477 569.5 644.3955 494.6045

99 5 12-Aug-08 634.5 574.7325 38.8278 574.7325 652.3881 497.0769

99 6 13-Aug-08 633.1 579.8775 39.3993 579.8775 658.6762 501.0788

99 7 14-Aug-08 617.3 584.7375 37.6899 584.7375 660.1173 509.3577

99 8 18-Aug-08 610.3 588.2625 36.6082 588.2625 661.4788 515.0462

99 9 19-Aug-08 610 591.83 35.0426 591.83 661.9153 521.7447

1000 20-Aug-08 608.6 595.2675 33.098 595.2675 661.4636 529.0714

1001 21-Aug-08 592.0 596.285 32.6679 596.285 661.6208 530.9492

1002 22-Aug-08 585 598.36 30.4949 598.36 659.3498 537.3702

1003 25-Aug-08 594.2 600.5475 28.4863 600.5475 657.5201 543.5749

1004 26-Aug-08 591.0 602.08 27.0747 602.08 656.2295 547.9305

1005 27-Aug-08 594.8 604.39 24.2353 604.39 652.8606 555.9194

1006 28-Aug-08 590.4 606.0775 21.9165 606.0775 649.9105 562.2445

1007 29-Aug-08 590.3 606.885 21.0038 606.885 648.8925 564.8775

1008 01-Sep-08 598.0 608.46 19.0062 608.46 646.4724 570.4476

1009 02-Sep-08 608.4 610.145 17.366 610.145 644.877 575.413

1010 04-Sep-08 605.0 609.78 17.3925 609.78 644.565 574.995

1011 05-Sep-08 588.9 607.5975 17.1287 607.5975 641.8549 573.3401

1012 08-Sep-08 581 604.9625 16.9633 604.9625 638.8891 571.0359

1013 09-Sep-08 582.8 602.5375 16.4848 602.5375 635.5071 569.5679

1014 10-Sep-08 588.2 600.215 15.0024 600.215 630.2198 570.2102

1015 11-Sep-08 584.3 597.7075 13.1376 597.7075 623.9827 571.4323


29/55


Page 29 o f 55

24 0

26 0

28 0

30 0

32 0

34 0

05-Sep-04 25-Sep-04 15-Oct -04 04-Nov-04 24-Nov-04 14-Dec-04 03-Jan-05

UBB M BB Close Pr ice LBB

2004

Buy a t 278 on 22nd Nov


Sel l a t 316 on 21st Dec


30/55


Page 30 o f 55

25 0

30 0

35 0

40 0

45 0

50 0

29-Dec-04 17-Feb -05 08-Apr -05 28-M ay-05 17-Ju l-05 05-Sep-05 25-Oct -05 14-Dec-05


2005




Buy a t 338 on 28 th AprBuy a t 437 on 13 th Oct




31/55


Page 31 o f 55

35 0

45 0

55 0

65 0

75 0

85 0

95 0

1050

24-Dec-05 12-Feb-06 03-Apr -06 23-M ay-06 12-Ju l-06 31-Aug-06 20-Oct -06 09-Dec-06


2006


Buy a t 720 on 12 th MayBuy at 659 on 19th Jul

Sel l a t 826 on 14th Sep



32/55


Page 32 o f 55

65 0

75 0

85 0

95 0

1050

1150

29-Dec-06 17-Feb-07 08-Apr -07 28-M ay-07 17-Ju l-07 05-Sep -07 25-Oct -07 14-Dec-07


2007

Sel l at 809 on 23rd Apr

Buy at 1059 on 23rd Jan


Buy at 796 on 12th JunBuy a t 867 on 23rd Aug

Sel l at 946 on 3rd Sep





33/55


Page 33 o f 55

45 0

55 0

65 0

75 0

85 0

95 0

1050

24-Dec-07 12-Feb-08 02-Apr -08 22-M ay-08 11-Ju l-08 30-Aug-08


2008

Buy at 565 on 12rd Sep

Sel l at 817 on 23rd Apr

Buy a t 761 on 30 th Apr



34/55


Page 34 o f 55

%K AND %D

Stochast ic system is one of the most widely used indicators among the future t raders. The

indicator has caught the fancy of short-term and day traders because it is a very fast indicator

w hich can bounce f rom th e overbought t o the oversold region in a b l ink.

For com putat ion t he system , we have to calculate t he %K f i rst

STEPS OF CALCULATION OF %K

1. Find the lowest low fo rm ed by the Scr ip t in N num ber o f days (Say 5)

2 . Deduct t he l owest l ow f r om today s c lose .

3 . Find the h ighest h igh in N number o f days (Say 5)

4 . Take the d i f fe rence between t he h ighest h igh and the lowest low . th is is the range o f N

days (in t his case it is 5)5 . Divide the resu l t ob ta in in step 2 by the resu l t ob ta ined in step 4 and mul t ip ly the end

resul t b y hun dred. This percentage w i l l indicate by h ow m uch percentage todays c lose

is placed vis--vis the r ange.

Next step is to calculate %D, which is three p er iod average of %K. These tw o com ponent s make

up t he Fast Sto chastic system . The Fast Stochastic is an ext rem ely volat i le in dicator ; hen ce it is

d i f f icu lt t o der ive any w or thw hi le assum pt ions f rom i t . In o rder t o do aw ay wi th t h is p rob lem a

furt her sm oot henin g is incorpo rate d w hich is refer red as Slow Sto chastic. The Fast %D is taken

as Slow %K and a t hree-per iod average of t he same is taken as t he Slow %D.

(The f i rst par t of t he table and th e last par t of t he t able is been shown here)

Sl

No

Date High

Price

Low

Price

Close

Price

Highest

High

Lowest

LowFast

%K

Fast

%D

Slow

%K

Slow

%D

1 24-Aug-04 338.7 254 260.35

2 25-Aug-04 263.4 248.9 255.8

3 26-Aug-04 272 254 270.15

4 27-Aug-04 272.7 261 262.7

5 30-Aug-04 269 263 266 248.9 338.7 19.04

6 31-Aug-04 268.3 264.85 265.95 248.9 272.7 71.63

7 01-Sep-04 273.5 265 267.35 254 273.5 68.46 53.04 53.04

8 02-Sep-04 269.6 261 263.15 261 273.5 17.2 52.43 52.43

9 03-Sep-04 265.5 258.5 262.8 258.5 273.5 28.66 38.10 38.10 47.86

10 06-Sep-04 268.35 264.1 265.55 258.5 273.5 47 30.95 30.95 40.49

11 07-Sep-04 266.5 264 265.15 258.5 273.5 44.33 40 40 36.35

12 08-Sep-04 270 262.1 263.55 258.5 270 43.91 45.08 45.08 38.67

13 09-Sep-04 265.5 254 255.6 254 270 10 32.749 32.74 39.27

14 10-Sep-04 264.45 255 258.9 254 270 30.625 28.17 28.17 35.33


35/55


Page 35 o f 55

Sl

No

Date High

Price

Low

Price

Close

Price

Highest

High

Lowest

LowFast

%K

Fast

%D

Slow

%K

Slow

%D


98 4 28-Ju l-08 566 549 560.4 500 598 61.63 48.34 48.34 56.2398 5 29-Ju l-08 565.5 542.15 548.6 500 598 49.59 54.25 54.25 53.16

98 6 30-Ju l-08 562.8 550 556.65 500 598 57.80 56.34 56.34 52.98

98 7 31-Ju l-08 581.2 555 574.15 500 581.2 91.31 66.23 66.23 58.94

98 8 01-Aug-08 567.4 552 566.55 542.15 581.2 62.48 70.53 70.53 64.37

98 9 04-Aug-08 580 563.55 574.75 542.15 581.2 83.48 79.09 79.09 71.95

99 0 05-Aug-08 616.8 574 612.35 550 616.8 93.33 79.76 79.76 76.46

99 1 06-Aug-08 636.9 612 632.6 552 636.9 94.93 90.58 90.58 83.14

99 2 07-Aug-08 648 611 633.7 552 648 85.10 91.12 91.12 87.15

99 3 08-Aug-08 639.75 622.25 631.3 563.55 648 80.22 86.75 86.75 89.4899 4 11-Aug-08 645 628 634.65 574 648 81.95 82.42 82.42 86.77

99 5 12-Aug-08 638 627.5 634.5 611 648 63.51 75.23 75.23 81.47

99 6 13-Aug-08 650 620 633.1 611 650 56.66 67.37 67.37 75.01

99 7 14-Aug-08 639 606 617.35 606 650 25.79 48.65 48.65 63.75

99 8 18-Aug-08 619.95 600 610.35 600 650 20.7 34.38 34.38 50.14

99 9 19-Aug-08 614.9 587.35 610 587.35 650 36.15 27.54 27.54 36.86

1000 20-Aug-08 624 600.25 608.65 587.35 650 33.99 30.28 30.28 30.74

1001 21-Aug-08 610 585 592.05 585 639 13.05 27.73 27.73 28.52

1002 22-Aug-08 607 575 585 575 624 20.40 22.48 22.48 26.83

1003 25-Aug-08 602.3 590.05 594.25 575 624 39.28 24.24 24.24 24.82

1004 26-Aug-08 597 584.2 591.05 575 624 32.75 30.81 30.81 25.85

1005 27-Aug-08 610 593 594.8 575 610 56.57 42.87 42.87 32.64

1006 28-Aug-08 599 585 590.4 575 610 44 44.44 44.44 39.37

1007 29-Aug-08 603.8 586.2 590.3 584.2 610 23.64 41.40 41.40 42.90

1008 01-Sep-08 605.1 589.7 598.05 584.2 610 53.68 40.44 40.44 42.09

1009 02-Sep-08 612.95 599 608.45 585 612.95 83.89 53.74 53.74 45.19

1010 04-Sep-08 613 596.05 605.05 585 613 71.60 69.72 69.72 54.63

1011 05-Sep-08 599.95 585.1 588.95 585.1 613 13.79 56.43 56.43 59.96

1012 08-Sep-08 610 575 581 575 613 15.78 33.73 33.73 53.29

1013 09-Sep-08 590 581.05 582.8 575 613 20.52 16.70 16.70 35.62

1014 10-Sep-08 594 580 588.2 575 613 34.73 23.68 23.68 24.70

1015 11-Sep-08 592.5 582.9 584.35 575 610 26.71 27.32 27.32 22.57


36/55


Page 36 o f 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 0

31-Aug-04 20-Sep-04 10-Oct -04 30-Oct -04 19-Nov-04 09-Dec-04 29-Dec-04

SLOW %K SLOW %D

2004


Sel l at 263 on 8th Sep

Sell at 277 on 21st Sep

Buy a t 290 on 12 th NovBuy at 265 on 1st Oct

Buy at 285 on 20t h Oct Buy at 277 on 23rd Nov





Sel l a t 306 on 2nd Nov

Sel l at 295 on 1st Dec





37/55


Page 37 o f 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 0


SLOW %K SLOW %D

2005


Sel l at 372 on 7th FebSe l la t 366 on 2nd Mar

Buy at 330 on 21th Jun

Buy a t 341 on 29 th Mar Buy a t 329 on 3 rd M ayBuy at 362 on 21st Jul


Buy a t 327 on 27 th DecBuy at 362 on 23th Feb


Sel l a t 355 on 1 0 th M a y Sel l at 481 on 21st SepSel l at 468 on 22nd Nov




38/55


Page 38 o f 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 0


SLOW %K SLOW %D

2006

Buy at 537 on 3rd Feb



Buy a t 900 on 22nd NovBuy a t 623 on 28 th M ar

Buy a t 749 on 16 th M ayBuy at 620 on 24th Jul


Buy a t 869 on 9 th DecBuy at 533 on 22nd Feb

Se l l a t 575 on 2nd Mar Sel l at 717 on 23rd Jun

Sel l at 722 on 31st Jul

Sel l a t 775 on 22nd Aug

Se l la t 889 on 8 th Nov



39/55


Page 39 o f 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 0


SLOW %K SLOW %D

2007




Buy a t 1003 on 27 th NovBuy a t 693 on 5 th Apr

Buy a t 819 on 14 th M ayBuy at 873 on 12th Jul

Buy a t 867 on 23rd Aug


Buy at 985 on 31st Jan


Sell at 836 on 21st Jun


Sel l a t 920 on 31st Aug




40/55


Page 40 o f 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

10 0


SLOW %K SLOW %D

2008




Buy a t 655 on 28 th MayBuy at 539 on 18th Jul



Buy a t 666 on 14 th M ay Buy at 569 on 25th JunBuy at 806 on 13th Feb


Sel l at 692 on 21st M ay



Sel l a t 581 on 8th Sep

Sel l at 631 on 8th Aug


41/55


Page 41 o f 55

RSI (RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX)

The RSI is a pr ice-fol lowing oscil lator that ranges between 0 and 100. A popular method of

interpretat ion is to look fo r d ivergence where the sto ck is pr ice is making a new high, but RSI is

fal l ing to surp ass is previo us high.

FORM ULA FOR RSI

RSI = 100-{ 100 / (1+RS)}

RS = (Average of u p closing price/ Average of do w n closing price)

Here RS and RSI are t aken f or 14 Days Perio d.

If RSI 70 then t he stock is over bought .


Sl

N

o

Date Close

Price

Di f f o f

Close

Price

Up

Close

Price

D o w n

Close

Price

Sum of

up CP

(1 4

Day)

Sum of

Do wn

CP (14

Day)

Count

of up

CP

Count

o f

Down

CP

RS (14

D)

RSI

(14 D)

1 24-Aug-04 260.3

2 25-Aug-04 255.8 -4.55 0 4.55

3 26-Aug-04 270.1 14.35 14.35 0

4 27-Aug-04 262.7 -7.45 0 7.45

5 30-Aug-04 266 3.3 3.3 0

6 31-Aug-04 265.9 -0.05 0 0.05

7 01-Sep-04 267.3 1.4 1.4 08 02-Sep-04 263.1 -4.2 0 4.2

9 03-Sep-04 262.8 -0.35 0 0.35

10 06-Sep-04 265.5 2.75 2.75 0

11 07-Sep-04 265.1 -0.4 0 0.4

12 08-Sep-04 263.5 -1.6 0 1.6

13 09-Sep-04 255.6 -7.95 0 7.95

14 10-Sep-04 258.9 3.3 3.3 0

15 13-Sep-04 260.2 1.3 1.3 0 26.4 26.55 6 8 1.325 57.00

16 14-Sep-04 261.5 1.35 1.35 0 27.75 22 7 7 1.261 55.77

17 15-Sep-04 263.8 2.3 2.3 0 15.7 22 7 7 0.713 41.64

18 16-Sep-04 265.2 1.4 1.4 0 17.1 14.55 8 6 0.881 46.84

19 17-Sep-04 271.2 6 6 0 19.8 14.55 8 6 1.020 50.51

20 20-Sep-04 277.7 6.45 6.45 0 26.25 14.5 9 5 1.005 50.14

21 21-Sep-04 277.4 -0.25 0 0.25 24.85 14.75 8 6 1.263 55.82


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Page 42 o f 55

Sl

N

o

Date Close

Price

Di f f o f

Close

Price

Up

Close

Price

D o w n

Close

Price

Sum of

up CP

(1 4

Day)

Sum of

Do wn

CP (14

Day)

Count

of up

CP

Count

o f

Down

CP

RS (14

D)

RSI

(14 D)


98 4 28-Jul-08 560.4 9.9 9.9 0 80.6 76.1 7 7 1.059 51.43

98 5 29-Jul-08 548.6 -11.8 0 11.8 70 87.9 6 8 1.061 51.49

98 6 30-Jul-08 556.6 8.05 8.05 0 78.05 76 7 7 1.026 50.66

98 7 31-Jul-08 574.1 17.5 17.5 0 95.55 72.75 8 6 0.985 49.62

98 8 01-Aug-08 566.5 -7.6 0 7.6 95.55 70.5 8 6 1.016 50.40

98 9 04-Aug-08 574.7 8.2 8.2 0 103.7 58.85 9 5 0.979 49.48

99 0 05-Aug-08 612.3 37.6 37.6 0 141 58.85 9 5 1.331 57.10

99 1 06-Aug-08 632.6 20.25 20.25 0 161.2 48.8 10 4 1.321 56.92

99 2 07-Aug-08 633.7 1.1 1.1 0 142.6 48.8 10 4 1.169 53.9099 3 08-Aug-08 631.3 -2.4 0 2.4 142.6 50 10 4 1.141 53.29

99 4 11-Aug-08 634.6 3.35 3.35 0 144.7 50 10 4 1.158 53.66

99 5 12-Aug-08 634.5 -0.15 0 0.15 112.9 50.15 9 5 1.251 55.58

99 6 13-Aug-08 633.1 -1.4 0 1.4 112.9 23.35 9 5 2.687 72.88

99 7 14-Aug-08 617.3 -15.75 0 15.75 105.9 39.1 8 6 2.032 67.02

99 8 18-Aug-08 610.3 -7 0 7 96.05 46.1 7 7 2.083 67.56

99 9 19-Aug-08 610 -0.35 0 0.35 96.05 34.65 7 7 2.772 73.48

1000 20-Aug-08 608.6 -1.35 0 1.35 88 36 6 8 3.259 76.52

1001 21-Aug-08 592.0 -16.6 0 16.6 70.5 52.6 5 9 2.412 70.691002 22-Aug-08 585 -7.05 0 7.05 70.5 52.05 5 9 2.438 70.91

1003 25-Aug-08 594.2 9.25 9.25 0 71.55 52.05 5 9 2.474 71.21

1004 26-Aug-08 591.0 -3.2 0 3.2 33.95 55.25 4 10 1.536 60.57

1005 27-Aug-08 594.8 3.75 3.75 0 17.45 55.25 4 10 0.789 44.12

1006 28-Aug-08 590.4 -4.4 0 4.4 16.35 59.65 3 11 1.005 50.12

1007 29-Aug-08 590.3 -0.1 0 0.1 16.35 57.35 3 11 1.045 51.10

1008 01-Sep-08 598.0 7.75 7.75 0 20.75 57.35 3 11 1.326 57.01

1009 02-Sep-08 608.4 10.4 10.4 0 31.15 57.2 4 10 1.361 57.65

1010 04-Sep-08 605.0 -3.4 0 3.4 31.15 59.2 4 10 1.315 56.81

1011 05-Sep-08 588.9 -16.1 0 16.1 31.15 59.55 4 10 1.307 56.66

1012 08-Sep-08 581 -7.95 0 7.95 31.15 60.5 4 10 1.287 56.27

1013 09-Sep-08 582.8 1.8 1.8 0 32.95 60.15 5 9 0.986 49.64

1014 10-Sep-08 588.2 5.4 5.4 0 38.35 58.8 6 8 0.869 46.51

1015 11-Sep-08 584.3 -3.85 0 3.85 38.35 46.05 6 8 1.110 52.61


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Page 43 o f 55

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

21-Aug-04 10-Sep-04 30-Sep-04 20-Oct -04 9-No v-04 29-Nov-04 19-Dec-04 8-Jan-05

RSI of 14D f or 2004

2004

In 2004 th is stock w as ne i ther

Over Bought no r Over Sold


44/55


Page 44 o f 55

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

29-Dec-04 17-Feb-05 8-Ap r -05 28-M ay-05 17-Ju l-05 5-Sep-05 25-Oct -05 14-Dec-05


2005

Just Ove r Sold

Over Bought on 3rd Feb

Over Bought on 12th M ayOver Bought fro m 6t h-14th Jul

Over Bought on 22nd Sep


45/55


Page 45 o f 55

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90



2006

In this year t he Stock is not Over Sold

Over Bough t f rom 10th -4th Aug

Over Bough t f rom 17th -20th AprOver Bought fro m 21st-23rd Aug

Over Bought f rom 14th-19th Sep

Over Bought on 19th Dec


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Page 46 o f 55

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90



2007 Over Bought from 10th-11th SepOver Bough t f rom 25th -30th AprOver Bought f rom 28th Jun-9th Jul

Over Sold from 23rd-27th Feb


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Page 47 o f 55

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80



2008 Over Bough t f rom 19th -26 th Aug

Just Over Bought on13t h Jun

Over Bought on 14t h Aug

Over Sold from 13rd-15th M ay


48/55


Page 48 o f 55

PORTFOLIO RISK AN D PORTFOLIO RETURN

For th is par t monthly data are taken of three stock pr ices of Ul t raTech, Bhatr i Air te l and

Reliance fro m Sept em ber 200 4 t i l l Sep 20 08.

PORTFOLIO RETURN

I t is summ at ion of W eightage Retu rn of the stocks (W 1* R1+W 2* R2+W 3* R3)

PORTFOLIO RETURN

I t is Var iance or Standard d eviat ion o f port fo l io.

Var iance -Covariance M atr ix

W 1

UltraTech

W 2

Air te l

W 3

RIL

W 1

UltraTech

V1 Cov12 Cov13

W 2

Air te l

Cov12 V2 Cov23

W 3

RIL

Cov13 Cov23 V3

Portf olio Variance = (W 12 V1 ) + (W 2

2 V2 ) + (W 32 V3 ) + 2(W 1W 2Cov 12 ) +2(W 2W 3Cov23 )+ 2(W 1W 3Cov13 )


49/55


Page 49 o f 55

Ret urn w .r .t Close Pr ice (%) Ret urn w .r .t Close Pr ice (%)

Date Ul t raTech Air te l RIL Date Ul t raTech Air te l RIL

Sep-04 0.244 4.469 8.969 Nov-06 2.073 18.872 1.533

Oct-04 13.935 7.666 2.132 Dec-06 22.047 -0.214 2.036

Nov-04 -2.815 10.331 -2.362 Jan-07 -9.408 12.507 7.419

Dec-04 15.278 24.229 3.299 Feb-07 -10.325 1.590 -0.733

Jan-05 1.014 6.841 -0.215 M ar-07 -13.539 6.184 1.015

Feb-05 8.291 -2.279 4.393 Apr-07 6.470 6.401 14.013

M ar-05 -4.755 -8.108 -1.816 M ay-07 0.817 4.402 12.826

Apr-05 -5.965 0.145 -3.343 Jun-07 8.833 -1.398 -3.403

M ay-05 -2.549 8.158 1.431 Jul-07 3.566 8.075 11.292

Jun-05 8.480 8.391 19.925 Aug-07 -1.250 -2.607 3.551

Jul-05 8.030 16.574 9.503 Sep-07 13.259 6.967 17.183

Aug-05 15.312 11.427 2.369 Oct-07 -4.163 6.949 21.181

Sep-05 6.207 10.477 10.277 Nov-07 -1.176 -6.671 2.451

Oct-05 -14.615 -7.418 -3.900 Dec-07 2.745 5.865 1.063

Nov-05 13.023 10.817 9.226 Jan-08 -15.170 -13.081 -13.938

Dec-05 -5.078 -3.314 6.814 Feb-08 5.897 -4.494 -0.857

Jan-06 21.398 2.864 -19.77 M ar-08 -14.429 0.061 -7.882

Feb-06 8.090 1.603 -0.694 Apr-08 -2.411 8.800 15.471

M ar-06 22.114 14.268 12.346 M ay-08 -14.559 -2.487 -8.153

Apr-06 25.597 -1.187 28.314 Jun-08 -16.209 -17.662 -12.841

M ay-06 -29.570 -10.29 -6.700 Jul-08 5.378 10.739 5.396

Jun-06 23.867 1.107 11.067 Aug-08 2.813 4.761 -3.148

Jul-06 -3.714 3.473 -7.532 Sep-08 -4.201 -6.229 -8.911

Aug-06 6.495 7.353 14.157

M o n t h l y

ret urn 2.246072 3.919838 3.3457

Sep-06 15.884 14.075 4.783

Yearly

ret urn % 26.95286 47.03806 40.149

Oct-06 -1.195 13.075 4.709

Variance

(n )138.29057 68.52405 88.21268

Covarian ce M atr ix Variance Covarian ce M atr ix

Covariance

Ut ech-Air Ut ec-RIL Air-RIL

44.98449 48.514045 34.808333

Variance -Covariance M atrix

Ultr atech Airt el RIL

Ultratech 138.29 44.98 48.51

Air te l 44.98 68.52 34.81

RIL 48.51 34.81 88.21


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Page 50 o f 55

W eighage Ret urn Port fo l io

Retur n in

%

Port fo l io

Risk (var )

Port fo l io

Risk (Sd)

Sl

No Ult rat ech Air tel RIL Ult rat ech Air tel RIL

1 0 0 1 0.27 0.47 0.40 40.00 88.21 9.39

2 0 0.1 0.9 0.27 0.47 0.40 40.70 78.40 8.85

3 0 0.2 0.8 0.27 0.47 0.40 41.40 70.34 8.39

4 0 0.3 0.7 0.27 0.47 0.40 42.10 64.01 8.00

5 0 0.4 0.6 0.27 0.47 0.40 42.80 59.43 7.71

6 0 0.5 0.5 0.27 0.47 0.40 43.50 56.59 7.52

7 0 0.6 0.4 0.27 0.47 0.40 44.20 55.49 7.45

8 0 0.7 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 44.90 56.14 7.49

9 0 0.8 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 45.60 58.52 7.65

10 0 0.9 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 46.30 62.65 7.92

11 0 1 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 * 47.00 68.52 8.2812 0.1 0 0.9 0.27 0.47 0.40 38.70 81.57 9.03

13 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.27 0.47 0.40 39.40 72.76 8.53

14 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.27 0.47 0.40 40.10 65.69 8.10

15 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.27 0.47 0.40 40.80 60.36 7.77

16 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.27 0.47 0.40 41.50 56.77 7.53

17 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.27 0.47 0.40 42.20 54.93 7.41

18 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 42.90 54.83 * 7.40

19 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 43.60 56.47 7.51

20 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 44.30 59.86 7.74

21 0.1 0.9 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 45.00 64.98 8.0622 0.2 0 0.8 0.27 0.47 0.40 37.40 77.51 8.80

23 0.2 0.1 0.7 0.27 0.47 0.40 38.10 69.70 8.35

24 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.27 0.47 0.40 38.80 63.63 7.98

25 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.27 0.47 0.40 39.50 59.30 7.70

26 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.27 0.47 0.40 40.20 56.71 7.53

27 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 40.90 55.86 7.47

28 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 41.60 56.76 7.53

29 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 42.30 59.40 7.71

30 0.2 0.8 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 43.00 63.78 7.99


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Page 51 o f 55

W eighage Ret u rn Port fo l io

Retur n in

%

Port fo l io

Risk

(var)

Port fo l io

Risk (Sd)

Sl

No Ult ra tech A i r te l RIL U l t ra tech A i r tel RIL

31 0.3 0 0.7 0.27 0.47 0.40 36.10 76.05 8.72

32 0.3 0.1 0.6 0.27 0.47 0.40 36.80 69.23 8.32

33 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.27 0.47 0.40 37.50 64.15 8.01

34 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.27 0.47 0.40 38.20 60.82 7.80

35 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 38.90 59.23 7.70

36 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 39.60 59.38 7.71

37 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 40.30 61.28 7.83

38 0.3 0.7 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 41.00 64.92 8.06

39 0.4 0 0.6 0.27 0.47 0.40 34.80 77.17 8.78

40 0.4 0.1 0.5 0.27 0.47 0.40 35.50 71.35 8.45

41 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.27 0.47 0.40 36.20 67.27 8.20

42 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 36.90 64.94 8.06

43 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 37.60 64.35 8.02

44 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 38.30 65.50 8.09

45 0.4 0.6 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 39.00 68.39 8.27

46 0.5 0 0.5 0.27 0.47 0.40 33.50 80.88 8.99

47 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.27 0.47 0.40 34.20 76.06 8.72

48 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 34.90 72.98 8.54

49 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 35.60 71.64 8.46

50 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 36.30 72.05 8.49

51 0.5 0.5 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 37.00 74.20 8.6152 0.6 0 0.4 0.27 0.47 0.40 32.20 87.19 9.34

53 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 32.90 83.36 9.13

54 0.6 0.2 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 33.60 81.28 9.02

55 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 34.30 80.94 9.00

56 0.6 0.4 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 35.00 82.34 9.07

57 0.7 0 0.3 0.27 0.47 0.40 30.90 96.08 9.80

58 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 31.60 93.25 9.66

59 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 32.30 92.17 9.60

60 0.7 0.3 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 33.00 92.82 9.63

61 0.8 0 0.2 0.27 0.47 0.40 29.60 107.56 10.3762 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 30.30 105.73 10.28

63 0.8 0.2 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 31.00 105.64 10.28

64 0.9 0 0.1 0.27 0.47 0.40 28.30 121.63 11.03

65 0.9 0.1 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 29.00 120.80 10.99

66 1 0 0 0.27 0.47 0.40 27.00 138.29 11.76


52/55


Page 52 o f 55

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

Return(%)

Risk (sd)

Effective Port fol ioM aximum return of p or t fo l io is 47% with Risk Sd = 8.28With Ul t ra tech weight = 0

A i r te l We igh t = 1RIL weight = 0

M in imum Risk of Por t fo l io is 7 .40% with return = 42.9%

Wit h Ul t ra tech w eight = 0.1A i r te l We igh t = 0 .6RIL weight = 0.3


53/55


Page 53 o f 55

PROFIT FROM DIFFERENT M ETHODS

SM A

Buy Sell Profit

Prof i t

A f ter

Brokerage

2004

260 270 10 7.35

265 304 39 36.155

286 300 14 11.07

280 295 15 12.125

302 316 14 10.91

308

340 32 28.76

2005

325 370 45 41.525

360 374 14 10.33

355 360 5 1.425

353 348 -5 -8.505

326 374 48 44.5

361 418 57 53.105

407 462 55 50.655

410 459 49 44.655

431 441 10 5.64

2006

436 832 396 389.66

631 727 96 89.21

651 764 113 105.925769

2007

1113 344 334.59

1071 1130 59 47.995

1060 1062 2 -8.61

753 788 35 27.295

693 967 274 265.7

852 1044 192 182.52

200

8798 865 67 58.685

863 911 48 39.13539 633 94 88.14

To tal Pr of it 2122 1969.94

LT410 812 402 395.89

904 871 -33 -41.875

369 354.015

EM A

Buy Sell Profit

Prof i t

A f terBrokerage

(0.5%)

2004

260 269 9 6.355

265 304 39 36.155

289 300 11 8.055

284

2005

340 56 52.88

325 370 45 41.525

350 373 23 19.385

329 350 21 17.605

325 465 140 136.05

398 455 57 52.735

430 438 8 3.66

2006

436 806 370 363.79

570 727 157 150.515

651

2007

1130 479 470.095

1060 1111 51 40.145

693 967 274 265.7

867 1001 134 124.66977

2008

985 8 -1.81

798 899 101 92.515

806 911 105 96.415

539 617 78 72.22

Tot al Pro fi t 2166 2048.65

LT325 883 558 551.96

873 985 112 102.71

670 654.67


54/55


Page 54 o f 55

Boll inger Band

Buy Sell Profit

Prof i t

A f ter

Brokerage

2004 278 310 32 29.06

2005

352 373 21 17.375

338 339 1 -2.385

437 456 19 14.535

42 6

2006

468 42 37.53

720 717 -3 -10.185

659 826 167 159.575

2007

1059 809 -250 -259.34

796 873 77 68.655

867 946 79 69.935

1005 1038 33 22.785

96 8

2008817 -151 -159.925

761 612 -149 -155.865

Tot al Pro f i t -82 -168.25

M ACD

Buy Sell Profit

Prof i t

A f ter

Brokerage

2004 286 305 19 16.045

300 298 -2 -4.99

2005

324 350 26 22.63

368 365 -3 -6.665

345 364 19 15.455

336 329 -7 -10.325

459 431 -28 -32.45

450

2006

448 -2 -6.49

786 631 -155 -162.085727 738 11 3.675

878 916 38 29.03

2007

1038 1163 125 113.995

1111 1120 9 -2.155

1062 797 -265 -274.295

929 919 -10 -19.24

1044 1030 -14 -24.37

2008

970 895 -75 -84.325

876 809 -67 -75.425

761 644 -117 -124.025574 556 -18 -23.65

To tal Pr of it -516 -649.66


55/55


%K & %D

Buy Sell ProfitPro f it Af te rBrokerage

2004

263 263 0 -2.63

260 277 17 14.315

265 319 54 51.08

285 306 21 18.045

290 284 -6 -8.87

277 295 18 15.14

297 309 12 8.97

327 336 9 5.685

2005

329 372 43 39.495

362 366 4 0.36

341 344 3 -0.425

329 355 26 22.58

330 338 8 4.66

362 481 119 114.785455 468 13 8.385

327 443 116 112.15

2006

537 545 8 2.59

533 575 42 36.46

623 706 83 76.355

749 717 -32 -39.33

620 722 102 95.29

737 775 38 30.44

869 889 20 11.21

900 1014 114 104.43

2007

1070 1083 13 2.235

985 1120 135 124.475

693 842 149 141.325

819 836 17 8.725

873 967 94 84.8

867 920 53 44.065

999 1001 2 -8

1003 982 -21 -30.925

2008

985 879 -106 -115.32

806 881 75 66.565

774 792 18 10.17

666 692 26 19.21

655 628 -27 -33.415569 551 -18 -23.6

539 631 92 86.15

591 581 -10 -15.86

Tot al Pro f it 1324 1081 77

technical analysis of ultratech

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