tech innovation s4_push_pull

ATOA Scientific Technologies Engineering Simulation For Innovation

Technology and Innovation Management: S4 Technological Process Raj C Thiagarajan, PhD

To

SIBM SIII MBA Students

ATOA Scientific Technologies Pvt Ltd | SIBM , III Semester MBA| Technology and Innovation Management

Process of Technological Change

2

• Technology Push

• Market Pull

• Technology Trend Forecasting

• Dynamics of Technological Innovation

• Dynamics of Market Diffusion


Technology Push

3


Technology Push

4

• Technology driven product development

• Technologies are developed first and then clients

• The technology competency of firm leveraged for market exploitation.

• Solution in search of a problem

• Risk: Not finding the market, Large Capital


Synthetic Dye:1856

5

• 1853: Willam Perkin

• Technology state: Atomic Theory, Elements

• Hypothesis of Quinine for malaria treatment

• Discovered : Aniline from coal tar + potassium dichromate = Synthetic purple dye

• At that time mostly natural dye was used. The textile industry was slow to adpat.

• The penetration of synthetic dye marked the beginning of the synthetic dye industry, which was the first modern chemical industry.

• Structural Color…


Technology push Examples

6

• Synthetic dye

• Penicillin

• Nylon

• Teflon

• Post-it

• Magnetic Tapes

• Walkman

• Botox

• IPad


Market Pull

7


Market Pull

8

• Market Research Driven product development

• Market potential is sought first before technology development.

• Client requirements are captured first and then product

• Problem in need of a Solution

• Risk: loosing out on a downturn, Competition


Market Pull: Refrigeration

9

• Preservation of food was one of the first problem

• Traditional: drying, salting, acid pickling…

• Lower the temperature to slow the bacteria growth

• 1748 Vapor compression refrigerator, diethyl ether

• Need: Safe non toxic nonflammable Refrigerant

• 1930 Thomas Midgley Jr invented Freon

• Dominated the Refrigeration industry

• Now non CFC, Superinsulation


Market Pull

10

• Freon

• Vulcanized rubber

• Celluloid

• Aspirin

• Incandescent lamp

• Chlorination of water

• Kevlar

• Automobile

• Ecommerce

• Itunes


Push vs Pull

11

Pull:

• Market pull

• What is needed?

• Practicality

• Looking for Technology

Push

• Technology push

• What is possible

• Curiosity

• Looking for market

Synthetic Dye, 1856 Penicillin, 1928

Teflon, 1978 Post-It, 1978

Vulcanized Rubber 1839

Freon, 1928 Sulfa Drug, 1930

Taxol, 1964 Kevlar, 1970

Low Market Pull High

Low

T

ech

no

logy

Pu

sh

Hig

h

Find Market

Fin

d T

ech

no

logy


Successful management

12

• Successful value creation

• Managing invention for the market successes

• Market driven Technology development

• Technology management is to develop the most efficient design solution to fulfill a market need


Step by Step Process

13

• Push pull management process

Input

from

Market Research

Input from

Tech

Assessment

Market

Need

Tech

Competency

Need and Competency correlation

Prioritization of market need and

Technology capability

Cus

Product Development and commercialization

Customer

Requirement's


Technology Evolution

14

• Penetration of Technological devices into American Consumers

• Pattern

• Rate



15

• Business vs Technology cycle

• Technological change

– Random and spontaneous process

– Systematic and planned process

• Dynamics of Technological change

– S-curve

– Technology Progression

– Levels of Technology development

– Technology change agents

– Evolutionary characteristics

– Uncertainty and insularity


Maturity

Slow Growth

Rapid Growth

Emergence

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4


16

• Stable performance Characteristics

• S-curve of evolution

• 4 stages

• Product Evolution – Exploration or discovery or

invention or concept

– Development stage

– Commercialization

– Monitor and control

Time

Ch

arac

teri

stic

s

Decline


Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Technology Progression

17

• Learning or adaptation process

• Limited by Technology or market.

• Obsolete

• Insularity

• Progression

Time

Ch

arac

teri

stic

s

Technical Limit

Tech1

Tech2


Fields of Innovation

18

Technological innovation

• Product

• Process

Non Technological innovation

• Organizational

• Market

• Strategic

Strategic Innovation

Product Innovation

Organizational

Innovation

Market Innovation

Process Innovation


Type of innovation outputs

19

• Incremental

– Minor change

– Aligned

• Modular

– Significant change

• Evolutionary

– Novel change

• Revolutionary

– Breakthrough change

– New to the Orgn.

Incremental

Modular

Evolutionary

Revolutionary

Technological Change O

rgn

. Kn

ow

led

ge R

equ

irem

en

t


Technology Diffusion

20

• Diffusion of technology is the process by which technology is communicated among and adopted by the members of a social system.

• Elements

– Technology, innovation, product

– Propagation Channel

– Time

– Social System


Saturated Adoption

Slow Adoption

Accelerated Adoption

Few Early Adaption

Stage 1

Stage 2

Stage 3

Stage 4

Dynamics of diffusion

21

• S-curve of Diffusion

• 4 stages

• Mechanism of diffusion

• Technology substitution

• Tipping point

Time

No

of

Cu

sto

mer

Frequency of Adoption

Cumulative Adoption

Declining Market


Early majority (34%)

Late majority (34%)

Early Adopters (13.5%)

Laggards (16%)

Innovators (2.5%)

Social System: Adaptors

22

INNOVATORS:

• venturesome and educated, take risks, They appreciate technology

EARLY ADOPTERS

• Social leaders, popular and educated. Visionary new technology adopters

EARLY MAJORITY

• evolutionary changes, prime movers of rapid growth.

LATE MAJORITY

• Skeptical and traditional , price sensitive and total solution.

LAGGARDS

• Technology skeptics, maintain the status quo.

Time

%o

f C

ust

om

er


Five Stages of Adoption model

Awareness

• Exposed but lack information

Attitude

• Seeks information and makes an opinion

Decision

• Weighs the benefits or drawbacks

• Critical stage: Decides to adopt or reject

Implementation

• Deployment

• Evaluates the usefulness

Confirm

• Final decision to continue to use or reject.

1 Awareness

•How

•Knowledge

2 Attitude

•Favorable

•Unfavorable

3 Decision

•Adopt

•Reject

4 Implementation

•Put to use

•Purchase

5 Confirm

•Reinforcement

•Rejection


Adoption model

• Technology and market diffusion

1 Awareness

•How

•Knowledge

2 Attitude

•Favorable

•Unfavorable

3 Decision

•Adopt

•Reject

4 Implementation

•Put to use

•Purchase

5.Confirm

•Reinforcement

•Rejection

Technology development Market penetration


Diffusion of innovation model

25

From: Rogers, E.M. (1995). Diffusion of innovations (4th edition). The Free Press. New York.


Innovation diffusion Trends

26

• Communication Technologies adoption in USA

• Mobile subscription adoption in India

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007*

Urban subscribers

Rural subscribers

Subscribers per 100 persons

Source: Telecommunications Regulatory Authority of India


Trend Prediction

• Future Forecasting

• Short term

• Long-term

Historical Data

Forecasting Model

Growth Prediction

Historical Data

Forecasting Model

Growth Prediction

Future data Correlation


Predictive models

28

• The Technology evolution and innovation diffusion follows a S-curve trend.

• Predictive Models: Bass, Compertz, Fisher –Pry…

• General form f(e –g(t)) where F(t) is the cumulative fraction of adopters f(t) is the rate of diffusion at time t p is the innovation factor q is the imitation factor


Push Pull + S Curve

29

• Market driven

• Industrial Research Driven

• Basic Research driven

Technology Market

Barrier

Technology Market

Barrier

Technology Market

Barrier

Overcome the Technology and market roadblocks for breakthroughs