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Tech Futures for Global Futures An outlook on future technologies that will change the world Issue 1: January 2020

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Page 1: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Tech Futuresfor Global Futures

An outlook on future technologies that will change the world

Issue 1: January 2020

Page 2: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Global Futures

POLIT

ICS

ENVIRONMEN

T

ECON

OMY

TECHNO

LOGY

SOCIETY

Art

s &

Cul

ture

Beh

avio

ral &

Sci

ence

Citi

es &

Urb

aniz

atio

nC

ivic

Par

ticip

atio

nD

igita

l Eco

nom

y &

Soci

ety

Futu

re o

f Hea

lth &

Hea

lthca

re

Gende

r & P

arity

Human

Rights

Humanitaria

n Action

Justice & Legal Infrastructure

Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution

Media & Entertainment

Mental Health

Role of Religion

Social Innovation

ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives

5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production

Advanced Material

Artificial Intelligence & Robotics

Biotechnology

Blockchain

Cybersecurity

Digital identity

4th Industrial R

evolution

Future of Mobility

Hum

an Enhancement

Innovation

Internet of ThingsN

euro

scie

nce

Spa

ce

Pre

cisi

on M

edic

ine

Virtu

al &

Aug

men

ted

Rea

lity

Ble

nded

Fin

ance

Circ

ular

Eco

nom

y

Emer

ging

Mul

tinat

iona

ls

Entre

pren

eurs

hip

Fam

ily B

usine

ss

Finan

cial &

Mone

tary S

ystem

Future of Economic Progress

Geo-EconomicsElicit E

conomySustainable Development

International Trade & Investment

BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security

Forests

Future of Energy

Future of Food

Oceans

Plastics and the environement

Water

Agile governance

Arctic

Corruption

Geopolitics

Global governance

Global health

Global risks

Infrastructure

International securityInternet governance M

igra

tion

Nuc

lear

sec

urity

Educ

atio

n &

Skills

Futu

re o

f Con

sum

ptio

n

Age

ing

Inclusive Desig

n

3D Printing

Batteries

Drones

Cor

pora

te G

over

nanc

e

Pub

lic fi

nanc

e &

soc

ial p

rote

ctio

n

1

Page 3: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Global Futures

POLIT

ICS

ENVIRONMEN

T

ECON

OMY

TECHNO

LOGY

SOCIETY

Art

s &

Cul

ture

Beh

avio

ral &

Sci

ence

Citi

es &

Urb

aniz

atio

nC

ivic

Par

ticip

atio

nD

igita

l Eco

nom

y &

Soci

ety

Futu

re o

f Hea

lth &

Hea

lthca

re

Gende

r & P

arity

Human

Rights

Humanitaria

n Action

Justice & Legal Infrastructure

Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution

Media & Entertainment

Mental Health

Role of Religion

Social Innovation

ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives

5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production

Advanced Material

Artificial Intelligence & Robotics

Biotechnology

Blockchain

Cybersecurity

Digital identity

4th Industrial R

evolution

Future of Mobility

Hum

an Enhancement

Innovation

Internet of Things

Neu

rosc

ienc

e

Spa

ce

Pre

cisi

on M

edic

ine

Virtu

al &

Aug

men

ted

Rea

lity

Ble

nded

Fin

ance

Circ

ular

Eco

nom

y

Emer

ging

Mul

tinat

iona

ls

Entre

pren

eurs

hip

Fam

ily B

usine

ss

Finan

cial &

Mone

tary S

ystem

Future of Economic Progress

Geo-EconomicsElicit E

conomySustainable Development

International Trade & Investment

BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security

Forests

Future of Energy

Future of Food

Oceans

Plastics and the environement

Water

Agile governance

Arctic

Corruption

Geopolitics

Global governance

Global health

Global risks

Infrastructure

International securityInternet governance M

igra

tion

Nuc

lear

sec

urity

Educ

atio

n &

Skills

Futu

re o

f Con

sum

ptio

n

Age

ing

Inclusive Desig

n

3D Printing

Batteries

Drones

Cor

pora

te G

over

nanc

e

Pub

lic fi

nanc

e &

soc

ial p

rote

ctio

n

CGI’s Tech Futures series examines technologies on the leading edge of research. Today, these technologies are still in labs and

beyond the “emerging” horizon of CGI’s Future Scan of emerging technologies. However, they are garnering widespread interest

and investment, and it is already clear they will play a major role in our future. These technologies have the potential, within a decade,

to substantially impact our clients, their customers and their industries, as well our economies, the environment and our societies.

Tech Futures is for curious leaders who think constantly about designing and shaping the future of their organization and the

experiences, interactions and products and services they provide – leaders who strive to make our communities and societies a

better place for future generations.

Tech Futures seeks to give you an early awareness of the further-out technologies of tomorrow, allowing you to think about them

today, grasp their potential impact and envision their eventual application.

We are working continuously with CGI’s thought leaders and technology experts from around the world, as well as with our partner

ecosystem, to identify and assess new Tech Futures and publish further updates.

We hope you will find Tech Futures useful and inspiring. If you have feedback for improvements or ideas for additional Tech Futures

to cover, please contact us at [email protected]

Foreword

2

Page 4: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Table of content01 Introduction

02 Tech Futures

02.1 Quantum Computing (QC)

02.2 Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)

02.3 DNA Data Storage

02.4 Digital Mirrorworld (DMW) - Spatial Web

02.5 Brain Computer Interface (BCI)

03 Epilogue

Appendix A: Lenses

Appendix B: Ecosystem / Sources

Appendix C: Acknowledgements

3

Page 5: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

CGI’s Tech Futures examines technologies on the leading edge of research and their potential impact on global issues and our

clients’ business strategies and operations. In addition to providing a primer on Tech Futures and how they are relevant to our

future, we assess their impact potential through four lenses:

First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global

Futures, such as those presented in the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence*.

Second, we evaluate each Tech Future’s impact time horizon** as well as which industries might be impacted first.

Third, for the purpose of medium-term planning, we examine how a Tech Future might be relevant to some of CGI’s Agile

Design Principles for organizations transforming to a more agile operating model.

Fourth, we examine each Tech Future’s relationship to the current set of emerging technologies as monitored in CGI’s more

near-to-medium-term Future Scan v2.0. We have also curated a set of links to online resources and key ecosystem players

for the Tech Future (Appendix B).

For more details on the four Lenses please see Appendix A.

Tech Futures issues are published semi-annually.

* World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence: https://intelligence.weforum.org/ | ** impact time horizon = time until widespread POCs and/or MVPs in production

4

01 Introduction

Page 6: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Life Sciences /Pharma

Manufacturing/ Materials

DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment

Education Health Transport &Logistics

GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.

CapitalMarkets

Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining

Utilities

Business Organization Technology

Co-Design QC will allow for rapid simulations of 10,000s of market, product design scenarios fueling innovation.

Structure and governance QC allows simulations of how to organize a complex enterprise made up of many smaller, focused, autonomous units and teams

Decisions made on insight Decisions aided by 10,000s of market, product, operational simulations; performed with QC and quantum AI algorithms

Employees freed up As processing speeds up and QC is ubiquitous, employees are better guided and have more time to focus on the right value-adding activities.

Quantum Computing (QC)

Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 5-10 years

Rethink for Agile BusinessQuantum computers harness quantum mechanics to deliver orders-of-magnitude improvements in processing power. The key to a quantum computer’s power lies in its ability to generate and manipulate quantum bits, or qubits. Qubits have quantum properties — such as superposition and entanglement—that allow a connected group of qubits, in combination with specially designed quantum algorithms, to drastically speed up certain types of calculations.

What is it?

One of the most promising applications of quantum computers is simulating the behavior of matter down to the molecular level. For example, there is great potential to accelerate comparison of molecular compounds that could lead to new drugs. Car companies already use quantum computers to simulate the chemical composition of E-vehicle batteries to improve their performance. Quantum computers are also great for optimization problems because they can crunch through vast numbers of potential solutions extremely fast (e.g. optimizing traffic routing). Some researchers also think the machines could be used to accelerate AI. Many challenges remain, but if quantum computers live up to their promise, they could transform entire industries and turbocharge global innovation.

Why is it relevant?

“We are still many years away from getting quantum computers that will be broadly useful” (MIT, 2019)

5

02.1

02 Tech Futures

Page 7: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

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Society Technology Environment PoliticalEconomy*STEEP:

S M WStrong Moderate Weak

Coherence of Expert Assessment

Global Futures (STEEP) impact

Future Scan 2.0/Compute & Infrastructure/High-Performance Computing/Quantum Computing | Future Scan 2.0/Data/Artificial Intelligence/Quantum Computing

Reading the chart: The height of the bar represents the average probability across our experts. The green circle indicates the strength of coherence among the probabilities.

6

Page 8: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Life Sciences /Pharma

Manufacturing/ Materials

DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment

Education Health Transport &Logistics

GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.

CapitalMarkets

Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining

Utilities

Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 3-4 years

Business Organization Technology

Ecosystem of partners Trust and collaboration are secured by impervious PQC.

Culture and management system that is secure and safeguards employee and customer data, intellectual property, identity, privacy.

Decisions made on insight AI-powered, decision making is secured by PQC.

Smart, integrated, automated, fast technology platforms are secured by PQC.

Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)02.2

Rethink for Agile BusinessPost-quantum cryptography is the development of new kinds of cryptographic approaches for today’s computers that will be impervious to attacks from tomorrow’s quantum computers. Approaches range from simply increasing key sizes ( e.g., from 128 g 256 bits) to using more complex mathematical trapdoor algorithms, to lattice-based cryptography and super-singular isogeny key exchange.

What is it?

Cryptography is essential for the security of today’s interconnected world (IT/OT systems, cars, airplanes, critical infrastructure, medical devices, etc). In a 5G-accelerated and data/AI-driven world, security becomes even more critical. However, in just a few years, when practical quantum computers arrive, their ability to crack most of today’s crypto algorithms could wreak economic and political havoc. Any business or government storing data for decades needs to be thinking now about the risks quantum computers pose. The pressure is on; encryption technologies are deeply embedded in the systems they protect; unraveling them and implementing new ones can take a great deal of time and effort.

Why is it relevant?

Draft standards for PQC are expected to emerge and be published by 2022 (U.S. NIST, 2019)

7

Page 9: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

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Society Technology Environment PoliticalEconomy*STEEP:

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Coherence of Expert Assessment

Global Futures (STEEP) impact

Future Scan 2.0/Security/Cybersecurity/Post-Quantum Cryptography8

Page 10: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Life Sciences /Pharma

Manufacturing/ Materials

DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment

Education Health Transport &Logistics

GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc

CapitalMarkets

Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining

Utilities

Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 10+ years

Business Organization Technology

Co-design enables differentiating services with ecosystem partners for micro-segments using massive amounts of data, stored in inexpensive DNA storage.

Organizational culture More granular, autonomous teams require ever more data to make decisions ever more fluidly. DNA-based storage provides unlimited storage.

Decisions made on insight AI-powered, insight-based, automated decision making is based on massive amounts of customer and contextual data stored and archived on DNA.

Smart, integrated, automated, fast technology platforms rely on massive amounts of DNA-stored data

DNA Data Storage02.3

Rethink for Agile BusinessDNA Data Storage is the process of encoding and decoding binary/digital data to and from synthesized DNA strands. DNA with its long chains of the nucleotides A, T, C and G is life’s information-storage material. Data can be stored in the sequence of these letters, turning DNA into a new form of information technology. DNA is incredibly stable over 10,000s of years. It requires a fraction of the energy today’s magnetic and optical storage technologies consume. Speed of reading/writing DNA and cost are the main challenges.

What is it?

By 2020, an estimated 1.7 MB of data will be created per second per person globally, or about 418 billion one TB hard drives per year (418 zettabytes). Today’s magnetic or optical data-storage systems that hold this volume of 0s and 1s typically cannot last for more than a century, if that. Further, running data centers takes huge amounts of energy. Soon a serious data-storage problem will only become more severe over time. DNA’s storage density far exceeds that of electronic devices. E.g., the bacterium Escherichia coli has a storage density of about 1019 bits per cm3. All the world’s current storage needs for a year could be met by a one m3 cube of such DNA. It is still unclear if DNA will become the new ubiquitous storage. It will almost certainly be used for storing information at entirely new scales and preserving certain data over the long term.

Why is it relevant?

Boston, MA start-up CATALOG packed all of Wikipedia onto synthetic DNA strands (CNET, June 2019)

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Page 11: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

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Future Scan 2.0/Compute & Infrastructure/High-Performance Computing/DNA Data Storage10

Page 12: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Life Sciences /Pharma

Manufacturing/ Materials

DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment

Education Health Transport &Logistics

GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.

CapitalMarkets

Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining

Utilities

Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 5-10 years

Business Organization Technology

External ecosystem The ecosystem, partners and their assets will extend into and be boosted by the Mirrorworld.

Structure Organizational structure can be simulated /optimized in the Mirrorworld, where every team has a mirror twin.

Employees freed up Mirrorworld applications will augment employee intelligence, improving speed and quality of complex tasks.

Co-Design Co-design and testing will be done efficiently in the realistic and augmented Mirrorworld.

Decisions made on insight AI-powered, decision making optimized by simulations of the Mirrorworld.

Digital Mirrorworld (DMW) - Spatial Web02.4

Rethink for Agile BusinessThe Digital Mirrorworld for the most part doesn’t yet exist. In the near future, every place and thing—every street, street sign, lamppost, building, room—will have its full-size digital twin in the DMW. At present, only tiny pieces of this world are visible through AR headsets. Piece by piece, these virtual fragments will be stitched together to form a shared, persistent place that will eventually parallel the real world and encompass the entire planet. DMW is made possible by the convergence of 5G, cloud/edge/GPU computing, IoT sensor/camera miniaturization, blockchain, AI, and AR displays.

What is it?

The Spatial Web 3.0 represents the third technology mega-platform in human history. The first was the World Wide Web (Web 1.0) which subjected knowledge to the power of algorithms and ran on desktops and laptops. The second was social media (Web 2.0), running on smartphones. It digitized people’s human connections and human behavior and subjected that behavior to the power of algorithms. The Spatial Web 3.0, will digitize the physical world. On this platform, all things and places will have machine-readable digital twins, subject to the power of algorithms. Like Webs 1.0 and 2.0 before, it will unleash the prosperity of thousands of companies in its ecosystem, driven by a million new ideas that were not possible before machines could read the world—but also will create a myriad of new challenges.

Why is it relevant?

11

Page 13: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

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Future Scan 2.0/Channels/Augmented Reality/Mirrorworld | Future Scan 2.0/Data-Driven/Digital Twin/Mirrorworld12

Page 14: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Life Sciences /Pharma

Manufacturing/ Materials

DefenseComms / Media/ Entertainment

Education Health Transport &Logistics

GovernmentBanking Retail /Consumer Svc.

CapitalMarkets

Insurance Oil & Gas& Mining

Utilities

Where will we see it first? Impact time horizon 10+ years

Business Organization Technology

Co-design Cross-functional virtual teams collaborate in virtual reality with digital twins aided by BCI.

Culture–collaboration / innovation Employee training, up-skilling acquiring new innovation skills are augmented by BCI.

Automated / integrated platforms Employees control complex equipment via thought.

Employees freed up Writing and typing is replaced by thought-to-text interfaces.

Brain Computer Interface (BCI)02.5

Rethink for Agile BusinessA Brain Computer Interface (BCI) — also known as a brain-machine interface, a neural-control interface, a mind-machine interface, a direct neural interface, or a neuroprosthetic — allows for direct communication between the brain and an external device, often to control the device’s activity. BCIs read signals from the brain and use AI / machine learning algorithms to translate the signals into an external action.

What is it?

BCIs have life-changing potential for humans with motor impairments by allowing them to perform physical actions they otherwise could not. BCIs translate brain signals via AI algorithms into commands to control devices like wheelchairs, prosthetic limbs or other assistive technologies. BCIs have the potential to make everyday tasks easier and eliminate the need to type, give voice commands or provide manual control inputs to all kinds of machines. Early use cases include: neuroscience, military, medicine, rescue/disaster management, security, education, rehabilitation, entertainment/gaming. Key ethical implications include: safety, security and privacy.

Why is it relevant?

13

Page 15: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

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S M WStrong Moderate Weak

Coherence of Expert Assessment

Global Futures (STEEP) impact

Future Scan 2.0/Channels/Augmented Reality/Brain Computer Interface | Future Scan 2.0/Data/Artificial Intelligence/Brain Computer Interface14

Page 16: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

We hope you found this inaugural issue of CGI Tech Futures to be thought provoking and inspiring. In closing, we want to share some final perspectives to help you think about these technologies with their potential to change the world as you plan your future.

5 Tech Futures to watch

1. We see Quantum Computing (QC) as being at the top of a hype cycle. Realistically, we believe its impact horizon to be in the 5-10 year range. Nevertheless, the technology’s potential are enormous — using its processing power and quantum algorithms with vast amounts of data to investigate climate change, species migrations, flood forecasting, advanced materials and medicines, medical research, and space exploration — the possibilities for innovation and good are endless. Our experts do express concern about the possible erosive impacts of QC on security, crime, values and religion.

2. Closely related — and on a nearer impact trajectory of 3-4 years — is Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC). QC has the potential to break all our current encryption schemes. And with a hyper-connected world of cloud, IoT, 5G, and AI rapidly emerging, the race is on to develop new quantum-proof encryptions to protect our physical, digital and social realms. Significant efforts are being expended by governments and industry to stay ahead of QC’s capability curve. There is considerable disagreement amongst our experts about whether PQC will keep us safe or whether it will be overpowered by QC’s sheer power.

3. While QC will ultimately break the processing power paradigm of the last 60 years, DNA Data Storage has the potential to break the paradigm of how we store the unimaginable amounts of data created by our hyper-connected world. Current predictions are the world’s stored data will more than quintuple in the next 5 years (CAGR of >65%). Magnetic or optical storage simply will not be able to cope with exponentially growing volumes. Storing data in synthetic DNA strands has the potential to store the world’s annual data growth in a cubic meter. We believe this technology will take over a decade to mature before becoming a foundational technology of a connected world.

4. All three previous technologies will be key enablers in the emergence of the next global digital platform. Over the next 5-10 years, the Digital Mirrorworld (DMW) or Spatial Web 3.0 will become a globe-spanning digital twin of the entire physical world. It’s beginning to emerge as we speak but it is unclear who will dominate this third reincarnation of the WWW with their platform(s). While technologists marvel at the potential for new ideas, experiences and innovations, ethicists, philosophers and lawyers caution about the technology’s potential to do real harm to geo and national politics, societies and humanity. Recent controversies around irresponsible behavior of today’s Web 2.0 social medial platforms will likely will be dwarfed by the ethical and moral issues surrounding Spatial Web 3.0.

5. Lastly, Brain Computer Interface (BCI): The hit science fiction movie The Matrix, released in 1999, depicts a future in which humans live in a simulated reality. Twenty years later, the emergence of BCIs, DMW, QC and AI, make it now conceivable that such a concept will indeed become reality in our lifetime — hopefully in a much more benign version. Needless to say, our experts are weighing the positive potential of BCIs in areas like prosthetics, neuroscience, neural disabilities, assistive technology and intelligence augmentation against a negative potential ranging from malicious mind hacking and manipulation, to unintended mental health and psychological impacts at individual and public health levels. At a spiritual level, BCIs have the potential to fundamentally alter our understanding of what it means to be human.

We believe that over the next 10-20 years, these five technologies will change the world profoundly — society, business, politics, civic life, and spiritual life, and even what it means to be human. Our experts do not always agree on a technology’s balance of benign or malignant impact potential. With the tremendous potential of these technologies to improve the lives of billions of people come considerable risks of abuse and unforeseen side effects. Thus, leaders must think critically and objectively about technology and its role in a rapidly changing and progressing world, in order to plan and act in sustainable, responsible, and ultimately positive ways. We hope you find CGI Tech Futures a useful tool for doing just that. Please don’t hesitate to give us your feedback at [email protected].

15

03 Epilogue

Page 17: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

WM

M

W

M

MM

M

M M

M

M M

M

W

S

M

W

Beh

avio

ral s

cien

ce

Edu

catio

n &

ski

lls

Futu

re o

f hea

lth &

hea

lthca

re

Men

tal h

ealth

Rol

e of

relig

ion

Valu

es

Art

ifici

al in

tellig

ence

& ro

botic

s

Hum

an e

nhan

cem

ent

Inte

rnet

of t

hing

s

Neu

rosc

ienc

e

Pre

cisi

on m

edic

ine

Virt

ual &

augm

ente

d re

ality

Clim

ate

chan

ge

Agi

le g

over

nanc

e

Glo

bal h

ealth

Glo

bal r

isks

Inte

rnet

gov

erna

nce

Ent

repr

eneu

rshi

p

Neg

ativ

e Im

pac

t[p

roba

bilit

y]P

osi

tive

Imp

act

[pro

babi

lity]

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

+100

+80

+60

+40

+20

Society Technology Environment PoliticalEconomy*STEEP:

S M WStrong Moderate Weak

Coherence of Expert Assessment

The Global Futures issues and trends provide one of the main lenses through which we analyze the Tech Futures and their potential impact on our world. These Global Futures follow the World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence* and represent a set of 76 global mega-issues and trends shaping our world.

Global Futures are viewed through the STEEP prism of: Society, Technology, Economy, Environment and Politics

A group of CGI thought leaders assesses a Tech Future’s impact potential on each of the 76 Global Futures on a probability scale of -100 to +100. We then present the 18 Global Futures most likely impacted - positively or negatively - in the Global Futures Impact chart. The height of the bar represents the average probability across our experts. The green circle indicates the strength of coherence among our experts’ probabilities.

* World Economic Forum’s Strategic Intelligence: https://intelligence.weforum.org/

Lens #1 - Global Futures Issues & Trends

16

Appendix A: Lenses

Page 18: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

10+years

5-10years1-2

years

3-4years

Industries impacted:

Tech Future:E.g., Quantum Computing

Manufacturing/ Materials

Life Sciences /Pharma

Defense

CGI technology and industry experts assess the Tech Futures impact time horizon and which industries will be impacted first.

Lens #2 - Impact Time Horizon - Industries

17

Page 19: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Business Organization Technology

Integration with an ecosystems of partners that collaborate, share, innovate and deliver increased value to a networked and shared economy

Clusters of smaller, focused autonomous business units that partner and collaborate with other business units, making decisions faster

Decisions made based on insights generated from customers and operational data

Co-designed market opportunities, products and services informed by customer needs and behaviours

Culture and management system that encourage a curious mindset, collaboration and innovation

Employees freed up to work on value-add activities

Agile, simplified and frugal operational processes

Smart, fast, integrated and automated technology platforms and solutions

Rethink for Agile Business

CGI has identified eight fundamental Design Principles for a more agile operating modelWe assess the Tech Future’s potential to enable one or more Design Principles

Lens #3 - CGI Agile Design Principles

18

Page 20: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

MET

HODOLOGIE

S

Expe

rienc

e

Agile

DevOps

Cloud Native

Mobile SolutionsAugmented Reality

Advanced AnalyticsVideo Analytics

Artificial Intelligence

Digital Twins

IoT

HPC

Cyber Security

Blockchain

Inno

vatio

n M

anag

emen

t

Des

ign

Intelligent Automation

Maturing

Scaling

Emerging

Maturing

Scaling

Emerging

Cre

ativ

e

Technical

Channels Data-Driven

Sensors & Automation

Computing & Infrastructure

Security

TECHNOLOGIES

• A

I-po

wer

ed in

nova

tion

• S

usta

inab

le in

nova

tion

• In

nova

tion

sprin

ts

• In

nova

tion

cultu

re

embe

dded

in th

e

orga

niza

tion

• C

row

d in

nova

tion

• D

ata-

driv

en

inno

vatio

n

• D

esig

n th

inki

ng/h

uman

-cen

tere

d

desi

gn

• H

acka

thon

s

• B

uyin

g in

nova

tive

star

t-up

s

• In

nova

tion

stud

ios

/ la

bs

• A

I as

desi

gner

• La

b as

a s

ervi

ce

• In

nova

tion

Day

• M

icro

-ser

vice

s fro

nt e

nds

• B

usin

ess

desi

gn•

Des

ign

syst

em•

Dat

a th

inki

ng•

Dat

a-dr

iven

des

ign

• C

onve

rsat

iona

l UI

• M

otio

n de

sign

• U

I des

ign

• D

iagn

ostic

an

alyt

ics

• D

esig

n th

inki

ng• A

gile

SA

Fe

• W

eb U

X

• A

cces

sibi

lity

desi

gn• R

emot

e re

al-t

ime

colla

bora

tion

•AI I

oT ro

botic

sup

ervi

sion

• U

X fo

r AR

/ VR

• P

WA

(SPA

)

• U

X fo

r voi

ce, g

estu

re

• O

rg. d

esig

n

• XR

des

ign

• S

EO +

UX

= S

XO

• C

ultu

re d

esig

n

• D

esig

nOps

• M

ood

as in

terfa

ce

• H

aptic

feed

back

(des

ign)

• Di

gitiz

atio

n

of c

onte

nt

• O

mni

-cha

nnel

• In

tera

ctiv

e ob

ject

s

• Vo

ice

inte

ract

ion

• C

hatb

ots

(nar

row

AI)

• C

onte

xtua

l mes

sagi

ng (n

arro

w A

I)

• (B

road

AI)

inte

ract

ion

• Au

gmen

ted

expe

rienc

e

• Sm

art m

ater

ials

• M

obilit

y

• Bus

iness

agil

ity

• Citiz

en se

rvice

s agil

ity

• Dat

a go

vern

ance

stra

tegie

s

(GDPR, e

tc.)

• Ser

vice

desig

n / d

esign

think

ing

• Agil

e co

ntra

cting

• Sca

ling

agile

• Agil

e HR

• Tea

m-le

vel a

gile

• Scr

um

• Kan

ban

• Lea

n po

rtfoli

o

man

agem

ent

• Dev

Ops /

DeveS

ecOps

• Clou

d na

tive

deve

lopm

ent

• Virtu

al AI s

oftware engineers

• Failu

re injectio

n (e.g.,

“Chaos M

onkey” by

Net�ix)

• AI /

self-h

ealing

• Toolchain orchestr

ation

• Release

automation

• Low code / n

o code

• Microse

rvices

• Cloud nativ

e

development /

PaaS

• DevS

ecOps

• Agile m

ethods

/ Lean

• Infra

structure

as code

• Virtu

alizatio

n

• Release

automation

• SaaS

• Contin

uous

integration (C

I)

/ Contin

uous

delivery

(CD)

• IaaS cloud

• Containeriz

ation and sc

aling

• Serve

rless

computing

• Cloud-enabled data modernization

• Micro-service maturity

patterns

• Agile

• Orchestration• OS abstraction• Move to

micro-services• Softw

are-de�ned

networking

• DevOps

• API exposure

• Virtual m

achines

• Open source

• PaaS

• Cloud

• Containers

• Testing

• Framework

• Operational integration

• Cloud native security

• Service meshes• Distributed services

• Patterns

• Sensor-based, real-time data

streams and services

• X-platforms

- Xamarin

- RX Java

- React Native

• Arti�cial intelligence /

machine learning

• Personalization

• Kotlin

• Swift

• Voice

• Responsive web

• Objective C

• Java

• Progressive web app (PWA)

• X-platform ionic

• Advanced analytics

• Complex of�ine application

• Super-personalization

• IoT identities (IAM)

• 5G

• X-platform �utter

• Human machine interfaces

• Augmented reality

• Wearables• Blockchain / DLT

• Digital companion

• Virtual retina display (VRD)

• AI and machine

Learning in AR

• Hardware miniaturization

• Logistics use cases

• Training use cases

• Manufacturing use cases

• Retail use cases

• AR headsets

• Gaming AR

• Affordable hardware

• Interaction / collaboration

use cases

• Data connectivity / 5G

• AR apps

• Digital twin

• AR in cars

• Edge computing

• AR contact lenses

• Eye tap

• Traditional BI reporting

• Enterprise data hub/data lake, data warehouse

• Assisted analytics(data quality / auto curation)

• Cognitive analytics (broad AI)

• Data as a product/data partnership

• Contextual data analytics(social, voice, video, image, location, IoT)

• Proliferation of metadata management

• Predictive and prescriptive analytics

• Data visualization / mobile dashboards

• Interactive / self-service analytics / BI

• Data governance strategies (GDPR, etc.)

• Data cloud storage and analysis

• Automated analytics(narrow AI)

• Deep neural networks

• Data curation

• Descriptive analytics

• Diagnostic analytics

• Video analytics as a service

• Video algorithms in the cloud

• Value-added subscriptions

• Crowd analytics

• Video compression

• Non-visible light spectrum

• Complex object recognition

• Distributed algorithms (edge, on premise, cloud)

• AI neural networks for video analytics

• Industry 4.0

• 3D modelling (AR / VR)

• Supervised training (machine learning)

• Simple object recognition

• OCR

• Facial recognition

• Facial analytics

• Safety and security

• Autonomous driving

• Automated video annotation

• Unsupervised training (machine learning)

• Behavioral analytics

• Arti�cial General Intelligence (AGI)

• Unsupervised learning /

Deep neural networks• Adversarial machine

learning

• Auto machine learning

• Democratized AI

• Data curation

• Reinforcement learning

• Explainable AI

• Ethics in AI

• Applied AI / arti�cial narrow intelligence (ANI)

• Supervised learning

• Brain-computer interface (BCI)

• Self-aware AI

• Edge AI / Distributed AI• Quantum computing

• AI arms race

• Augmentend reality + digital twin

• Holographic digital twins

• Machine learning

• 3D printing

• Open APIs

• Geospatial information

systems (GIS)• Manufacturing

execution systems (MES)

• PLM / PDM /

CAD systems

• Predictive analytics

• Big data lakes

• 3D models

• 5G connectivity• Consumer IoT

• Sensor data

• Industrial IoT

• Space and drone data

• Real-time maps

• Digital mirror world

(e.g., "The Matrix")

• IoT platform offerings specialized in

design and operate scenarios

• Processing and analysis

of data moved to edge

of network

• Interactive objects /

voice-based services

• Mobile platforms for

management of IoT

devices• Industry and public

sector use cases

• IoT advanced analytics

• IoT data visualization

• IoT-enabled

automation

• Public cloud IoT

platform services

• IoT security

• Machine-to-

machine

• Mobility

• Intelligent and autonomous

devices

• IoT business scale• Smart materials

• Automating interactions,

judgment, em

pathy, sentiment

• Contextual data analytics

(social, voice, video,

image, location, IoT)

• RPA integrated with

advanced analytics /

narrow AI

• Basic virtual agents

with human back-up

• Video / image analytics

• Complex process /

transaction automation

• Deep learning / neural

networks / narrow AI

• Speech recognition

/ natural language

processing

• Supervised

machine

learning

• RPA (simple,

rules-based)• Clerical work

automation

• Text-based,

scripted

chatbots

• Cognitive / broader AI / deep

neural networks

• Fully autonomous virtual agents

• RPA + process mining

• Quantum

computing

• General AI

• Business digital assistance / AI

• Deep neural networks /

application-speci�c

integrated circuit (ASIC)

• Augmented and virtual

reality (AR / VR)• Serverless

infrastructure

• Com

posable

infrastructure

• Hyper

converged

infrastructure

• Hyperscale

public clouds

• Grid

computing

• Autonomous cars

• GDPR• 5G

• Quantum

encryption

• Field programm

able gate

array (FPGA) chips

• Graphic processing unit

(GPU

) / holographic

processing unit (HPU

)

• Automated AI-based response

• Intelligence-driven security

monitoring / m

achine

learning / narrow AI

• Critical infrastructure /

IoT security

• IT + OT convergence

• Proactive threat

hunting

• Supply chain

security

• Netw

ork-centric

perimeter

security

• Reactive,

siloed

cybersecurity

• Identity

managem

ent

• Malw

are

protection

• Intrusion

detection /

prevention• Digital

forensics

• Holistic threat surface

defence

• Ransom

ware

• Cloud, m

obile device

security

• Gov’t regulation

(e.g., GD

PR)

• Proactive threat hunting

• Cybersecurity bots

• DevSec O

ps• AI-driven attacks

• Security of autonomous AI

systems

• Social in�uencing meddling /

dis-information

• Security schem

e for distributed

devices in a network

• Industrialized / scaled blockchain

• Blockchain as a service

• Maintaining personal

identity across accounts

• Exchange of big data

• Blockchain proof of

concepts

• Blockchain labs

• Settlem

ent applications

• Trade-based applications• Transactional applications

• Governm

ent research• Asset tracking

• Digital

currencies

• Bitcoin

• Sm

art contract

framew

ork

• Energy applications

• Blockchain consortium

s

• GD

PR

solutions• P

rivacy by design

• Business applications using public

blockchains

Tech Future Quantum Computing

We map the Tech Futures to the emerging technologies as defined and monitored in the Future Scan.Tech Futures are still beyond the time horizon of the Future Scan

Explore Future Scan 2.0 in detail here.

Lens #4 - CGI Emerging Technologies Future Scan 2.0

Future Scan 2.0/Compute & Infrastructure/High-Performance Computing/Quantum Computing | Future Scan 2.0/Data/Artificial Intelligence/Quantum Computing19

Page 21: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Quantum Computing (QC)

RigettiComputing (https://www.rigetti.com/) | IonQ (https://ionq.com/) | D-Wave (https://www.dwavesys.com/quantum-computing/) | IBM (https://www.research.ibm.com/quantum-computing/) | Google (https://ai.google/research/teams/applied-science/quantum/) | Alibaba (https://damo.alibaba.com/labs/quantum/) | Quantum Computing Report (https://quantumcomputingreport.com/players/universities/)

Neuralink ( https://www.neuralink.com/ ) | LieberResearch Group – Harvard University ( http://cml.harvard.edu/ ) | Facebook with University of California San Francisco – thought-to-text interface | Kernel ( https://kernel.co/ ) | The Wyss Center – Geneva ( https://www.wysscenter.ch/ )

Brain Computer Interface (BCI)

U.S. NIST –Post-Quantum Project (https://csrc.nist.gov/projects/post-quantum-cryptography) | OpenQuantumSafe (https://openquantumsafe.org/) | New Hope (https://newhopecrypto.org/) | Microsoft (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/post-quantum-cryptography/) | Cloudflare (https://blog.cloudflare.com/towards-post-quantum-cryptography-in-tls/)

Post-Quantum Cryptography (PQC)

Wikipedia on DNA (https://catalogdna.com/) | Microsoft Research (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/project/dna-storage/) | (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-019-41228-8) | University of Washington (https://www.washington.edu/news/2019/03/21/first-fully-automated-dna-data-storage/) | Nature (https://www.nature.com/news/how-dna-could-store-all-the-world-s-data-1.20496)

Data Storage

Mirrorworld (https://www.wired.com/story/mirrorworld-ar-next-big-tech-platform/) | SingularityHubblog series Spatial Web3.0 (https://singularityhub.com/2019/09/06/introducing-the-augmented-world-of-2030/ | https://singularityhub.com/2019/09/20/the-technologies-giving-rise-to-the-spatial-web/) | OTOY RNDR (https://rendertoken.com/#roadmap) | Magic Leap (https://www.magicleap.com/) | 6D.ai (https://www.6d.ai) | MicroVision (https://www.microvision.com) | Facebook Reality Labs (https://research.fb.com/category/augmented-reality-virtual-reality/) | Microsoft Research (https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/research/blog/inside-ar-

Digital DMW or Spatial Web 3.0

Appendix B: Ecosystem / Sources

20

Page 22: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Global Futures

POLIT

ICS

ENVIRONMEN

T

ECON

OMY

TECHNO

LOGY

SOCIETY

Art

s &

Cul

ture

Beh

avio

ral &

Sci

ence

Citi

es &

Urb

aniz

atio

nC

ivic

Par

ticip

atio

nD

igita

l Eco

nom

y &

Soci

ety

Futu

re o

f Hea

lth &

Hea

lthca

re

Gende

r & P

arity

Human

Rights

Humanitaria

n Action

Justice & Legal Infrastructure

Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution

Media & Entertainment

Mental Health

Role of Religion

Social Innovation

ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives

5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production

Advanced Material

Artificial Intelligence & Robotics

Biotechnology

Blockchain

Cybersecurity

Digital identity

4th Industrial R

evolution

Future of Mobility

Hum

an Enhancement

Innovation

Internet of Things

Neu

rosc

ienc

e

Spa

ce

Pre

cisi

on M

edic

ine

Virtu

al &

Aug

men

ted

Rea

lity

Ble

nded

Fin

ance

Circ

ular

Eco

nom

y

Emer

ging

Mul

tinat

iona

ls

Entre

pren

eurs

hip

Fam

ily B

usine

ss

Finan

cial &

Mone

tary S

ystem

Future of Economic Progress

Geo-EconomicsElicit E

conomySustainable Development

International Trade & Investment

BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security

Forests

Future of Energy

Future of Food

Oceans

Plastics and the environement

Water

Agile governance

Arctic

Corruption

Geopolitics

Global governance

Global health

Global risks

Infrastructure

International securityInternet governance M

igra

tion

Nuc

lear

sec

urity

Educ

atio

n &

Skills

Futu

re o

f Con

sum

ptio

n

Age

ing

Inclusive Desig

n

3D Printing

Batteries

Drones

Cor

pora

te G

over

nanc

e

Pub

lic fi

nanc

e &

soc

ial p

rote

ctio

n

Appendix C: Acknowledgements

We thank our innovation and emerging technology community of experts around the world for their

assistance in developing this Tech Futures research. We also would like to recognize particularly the

significant contributions made by the following CGI experts:

Ron Brandt, Germany

Florin Filip, Canada

Dr. Rahul Ghodke, India

Anne Rajkumari, Netherlands

Ralf Schlenker, United States

Martin Škořepa, Czech Republic

Sumit Shah, United States

Conny Svensson, Sweden

Mark Van Engelen, Canada

Craig Wallace, United Kingdom

Geoff Whitemore, United Kingdom

21

Page 23: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

Global Futures

POLIT

ICS

ENVIRONMEN

T

ECON

OMY

TECHNO

LOGY

SOCIETY

Art

s &

Cul

ture

Beh

avio

ral &

Sci

ence

Citi

es &

Urb

aniz

atio

nC

ivic

Par

ticip

atio

nD

igita

l Eco

nom

y &

Soci

ety

Futu

re o

f Hea

lth &

Hea

lthca

re

Gende

r & P

arity

Human

Rights

Humanitaria

n Action

Justice & Legal Infrastructure

Leadership in the 4th Industrial Revolution

Media & Entertainment

Mental Health

Role of Religion

Social Innovation

ValuesWorkforce & EmploymentYouth Perspectives

5GAdvanced Manufacturing & Production

Advanced Material

Artificial Intelligence & Robotics

Biotechnology

Blockchain

Cybersecurity

Digital identity

4th Industrial R

evolution

Future of Mobility

Hum

an Enhancement

Innovation

Internet of ThingsN

euro

scie

nce

Spa

ce

Pre

cisi

on M

edic

ine

Virtu

al &

Aug

men

ted

Rea

lity

Ble

nded

Fin

ance

Circ

ular

Eco

nom

y

Emer

ging

Mul

tinat

iona

ls

Entre

pren

eurs

hip

Fam

ily B

usine

ss

Finan

cial &

Mone

tary S

ystem

Future of Economic Progress

Geo-EconomicsElicit E

conomySustainable Development

International Trade & Investment

BiodiversityClimate ChangeEnvironment & Natural Resource Security

Forests

Future of Energy

Future of Food

Oceans

Plastics and the environement

Water

Agile governance

Arctic

Corruption

Geopolitics

Global governance

Global health

Global risks

Infrastructure

International securityInternet governance M

igra

tion

Nuc

lear

sec

urity

Educ

atio

n &

Skills

Futu

re o

f Con

sum

ptio

n

Age

ing

Inclusive Desig

n

3D Printing

Batteries

Drones

Cor

pora

te G

over

nanc

e

Pub

lic fi

nanc

e &

soc

ial p

rote

ctio

n

22

Page 24: Tech Futures for Global Futures · 2020-02-20 · First, a CGI expert panel assesses each Tech Future’s potential to impact the world’s mega issues and trends, or Global Futures,

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