teaching the physics of climate change part 2 keith burrows aip education committee physcon feb 2008...

Teaching the Physics Teaching the Physics of of

Climate ChangeClimate ChangePart 2Part 2

Keith Burrows

AIP Education Committee

PHYSCON Feb 2008

This ppt available on

www.vicphysics.org

- Teachers

- Teaching the Science of Climate Change

http://www.vicphysics.org/

Human induced changesHuman induced changes How can we understand it?How can we understand it?

– It’s all a matter of physics! It’s all a matter of physics!

IPCC SynRep

Human induced changesHuman induced changes How can we understand it? How can we understand it?

– Computer models are the only way of taking all Computer models are the only way of taking all this into account.this into account.

– Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat, Use basic physics to calculate movement of heat, air, water, between small blocks of the air, water, between small blocks of the atmosphere.atmosphere.

– Here’s the basic physics:Here’s the basic physics:

Human induced changesHuman induced changes Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.

– These are just F = ma These are just F = ma applied to moving fluidsapplied to moving fluids

– This is conservation of This is conservation of massmass

– This governs the way This governs the way heat flows between heat flows between systemssystems

Human induced changesHuman induced changes

Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.

– The climate system is modelled The climate system is modelled as cells of air (or water) and the as cells of air (or water) and the equations are applied to see how equations are applied to see how much air/heat flows between much air/heat flows between each pair of cellseach pair of cells

– This is repeated all around the This is repeated all around the EarthEarth

– The models have improved by The models have improved by making the cells smallermaking the cells smaller

– They are now about 110 km They are now about 110 km square by 1 km highsquare by 1 km high


– The initial conditions have to be fed into the The initial conditions have to be fed into the model and then it generates weather and climate model and then it generates weather and climate patterns over hours, days, years or centuries!patterns over hours, days, years or centuries!

– Here is the result of one:Here is the result of one:

Courtesy of Graeme Pearman


– Models are tested to see if they generate past Models are tested to see if they generate past known climate patterns.known climate patterns.

– They are becoming more and more accurate. They are becoming more and more accurate. over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or over hours, days (7 day forecasts), years or centuries!centuries!

– Anthropogenic factors can be added/removedAnthropogenic factors can be added/removed

The science of climate changeThe science of climate change


– The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis The IPCC has just released the AR4 Synthesis Report which contains the most detailed and Report which contains the most detailed and worrying predictions yet.worrying predictions yet.


– The following diagrams are taken from the The following diagrams are taken from the AR4 Synthesis ReportAR4 Synthesis Report

Human induced changesHuman induced changes There is one problem.There is one problem. The IPCC report is based on thoroughly The IPCC report is based on thoroughly

reviewed work which is now several years reviewed work which is now several years old.old.

Because of the processes it goes through Because of the processes it goes through it is very conservative.it is very conservative.

A number of developments have occurred A number of developments have occurred since it was put together.since it was put together.

Human induced changesHuman induced changes The understanding of the The understanding of the

various feedback effects various feedback effects has improved considerablyhas improved considerably

This is a report given to the This is a report given to the UK parliament June 2007.UK parliament June 2007.

It outlines recent research It outlines recent research showing that feedback showing that feedback effects are more worrying effects are more worrying than previously thought.than previously thought.

OverviewOverview Climate scienceClimate science

– Earth’s energy balanceEarth’s energy balance– Interactions between EMR and the atmosphereInteractions between EMR and the atmosphere– The effect of changes in the systemThe effect of changes in the system

Human induced changesHuman induced changes– The release of millions of years of stored energyThe release of millions of years of stored energy– Is the climate changing?Is the climate changing?– How can we understand it? How can we understand it? – Climate models and their predictions.Climate models and their predictions.

What can we do?What can we do?– Fossil fuelsFossil fuels– Reduce energy useReduce energy use– Lower CO2 optionsLower CO2 options– Sustainable optionsSustainable options

The human responseThe human response– Sceptics, deniers, avoidersSceptics, deniers, avoiders– Change the light bulbsChange the light bulbs– The need for real changeThe need for real change

EducationEducation– That’s where we come inThat’s where we come in

What can we do?What can we do? Fossil fuelsFossil fuels

– We have to reduce them but we are extremely We have to reduce them but we are extremely dependant on themdependant on them


– Cutting car use has to Cutting car use has to be a prioritybe a priority

ABS


– One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!One of the dirtiest power stations in the world!

What can we do?What can we do? Reduce energy useReduce energy use

– Better forms of transportBetter forms of transport


– Better forms of transport – maybe these?Better forms of transport – maybe these?


– Better forms of transport – certainly theseBetter forms of transport – certainly these


– Better forms of transport – definitely theseBetter forms of transport – definitely these


– These are a problem!These are a problem!

What can we do?What can we do? Reduce energy Reduce energy

useuse– This could be This could be

fun. Maybe we fun. Maybe we need to be a bit need to be a bit more relaxed more relaxed about getting about getting places!places!

What can we do?What can we do? Reduce energy Reduce energy

useuse– Maybe video Maybe video

conferencing conferencing could reduce could reduce our need for our need for ‘business’ ‘business’ travel?travel?

What can we do?What can we do? Lower COLower CO22 options options

– Sequestration of COSequestration of CO22 from power stations - ? from power stations - ? – More efficient coal stationsMore efficient coal stations– Combined cycle gas generatorsCombined cycle gas generators

What can we do?What can we do? Lower COLower CO22 options options

– Nuclear ? Nuclear ?

What can we do?What can we do? Sustainable optionsSustainable options

60 kilowatt (10 year ago) 1300 kilowatt now


We make per day about:

5 – 10 kWh

Feed in to grid about

3 – 6 kWh

Draw from grid about

2 – 4 kWh


Gas used for hot water since installation last October ago:

NONE at allNONE at all


– Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’Geothermal – ‘hot rocks’– Potentially a very large resourcesPotentially a very large resources– (get pic!)(get pic!)


– The ‘base load problem’?The ‘base load problem’?– We are no where near having that problem yet!We are no where near having that problem yet!

Spot the renewables!

What can we do?What can we do? Sustainable options – base load?Sustainable options – base load?

– Wide distribution of sources evens out the loadWide distribution of sources evens out the load– Linking them is not as difficult as we are toldLinking them is not as difficult as we are told– Solar feeds power in at peak use timeSolar feeds power in at peak use time– Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas)Pumped storage is used now (Snowy, Tas)– Other storage options possible in futureOther storage options possible in future– HVDCHVDC

What can we do?What can we do? Sustainable options – HVDCSustainable options – HVDC

– Energy carried in transmission line is area Energy carried in transmission line is area under the Vunder the V² graph² graph

– V is limited by corona discharge to ~ 800 kV V is limited by corona discharge to ~ 800 kV (hence 500 kV AC lines)(hence 500 kV AC lines)

– So energy carried by DC is twice that of same So energy carried by DC is twice that of same value peak voltagevalue peak voltage

AC power

DC power

What can we do?What can we do? Sustainable options – HVDC Sustainable options – HVDC

– High Voltage DC transmissionHigh Voltage DC transmission– Basslink provides peak and stores excessBasslink provides peak and stores excess


– Making big difference to long Making big difference to long distance transmissiondistance transmission

– Carries twice the powerCarries twice the power– Can go 1000’s of km Can go 1000’s of km

(AC < 1000 km)(AC < 1000 km)


– High power high voltage semiconductors have High power high voltage semiconductors have made the differencemade the difference


– Area neededArea neededto collect ALL to collect ALL of Australia’s of Australia’s energy use.energy use.

What can we do?What can we do?


Where are the solar collectors?Where are the solar collectors?


This is in sunny Germany!This is in sunny Germany!


We have to get away from this...We have to get away from this...


...to this...to this

The human responseThe human response SSceptics, deniers, avoidersceptics, deniers, avoiders

Bolt talks of “Alarmist of the Year Tim Flannery” flying around the world, then has a go at the UN Climate Change conference in Bali next month where 12000 people will fly in: “Hypocrisy is too small a word for so monstrous a circus. If it wasn't for the fact the planet actually hasn't warmed for nine years now, I'd cry.”


– ““We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…We are in a cooling phase” Yes but…

The human responseThe human response Change the light bulbsChange the light bulbs

– Yes, and turn down the thermostat, Yes, and turn down the thermostat, – but that is a very tiny startbut that is a very tiny start

The human responseThe human response

– Is there Is there something a something a bit odd here?bit odd here?

The human responseThe human response

The human responseThe human response The need for real changeThe need for real change

– It will costIt will cost– But many jobs could be createdBut many jobs could be created– It will cost much more if we don’t start nowIt will cost much more if we don’t start now

But remember them?But remember them?

EducationEducation That’s where we come inThat’s where we come in

– The science leads to understandingThe science leads to understanding– The need for optimismThe need for optimism

This ppt can be downloaded fromThis ppt can be downloaded fromwww.vicphysics.orgwww.vicphysics.org – Teachers – Teachers- Feedback:Feedback:- [email protected]@physics.org- Resources (more at end):Resources (more at end):

$1

realclimate.org

http://www.vicphysics.org/

mailto:[email protected]

6.2.2 Role of scientists in the climate debate These stark conclusions about the threat posed by global

climate change and implications for fossil fuel use are not yet appreciated by essential governing bodies, as evidenced by ongoing plans to build coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and sequestration. In our view, there is an acute need for science to inform society about the costs of failure to address global warming, because of a fundamental difference between the threat posed by climate change and most prior global threats.

In the nuclear standoff between the Soviet Union and United States, a crisis could be precipitated only by action of one of the parties. In contrast, the present threat to the planet and civilization, with the United States and China now the principal players (though, as Fig. 10 shows, Europe also has a large responsibility), requires only inaction in the face of clear scientific evidence of the danger.

Thus scientists are faced with difficult choices between communication of scientific information to the public and focus on basic research, as there are inherent compromises in any specific balance. Former American Vice President Al Gore, at a plenary session of the December 2006 meeting of the American Geophysical Union, challenged earth scientists to become involved in informing the public about global climate change. The overwhelmingly positive audience reaction to his remarks provides hope that the large gap between scientific understanding and public knowledge about climate change may yet be closed.

J. Hansen1,2, M. Sato2, R. Ruedy3, P. Kharecha2, A. Lacis1,4, R. Miller1,5, L. Nazarenko2, K. Lo3, G. A. Schmidt1,4,

G. Russell1, I. Aleinov2, S. Bauer2, E. Baum6, B. Cairns5, V. Canuto1, M. Chandler2, Y. Cheng3, A. Cohen6,

A. Del Genio1,4, G. Faluvegi2, E. Fleming7, A. Friend8, T. Hall1,5, C. Jackman7, J. Jonas2, M. Kelley8, N. Y. Kiang1,

D. Koch2,9, G. Labow7, J. Lerner2, S. Menon10, T. Novakov10, V. Oinas3, Ja. Perlwitz5, Ju. Perlwitz2, D. Rind1,4,

A. Romanou1,4, R. Schmunk3, D. Shindell1,4, P. Stone11, S. Sun1,11, D. Streets12, N. Tausnev3, D. Thresher4, N. Unger2,

M. Yao3, and S. Zhang2 1NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA 2Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY, USA 3Sigma Space Partners LLC, New York, NY, USA 4Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 5Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 6Clean Air Task Force, Boston, MA, USA 7NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 8Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, Orme des Merisiers, Gif-sur-Yvette

Cedex, France 9Department of Geology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA 10Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA 11Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA 12Argonne National Laboratory, Argonne, IL, USA Received: 23 October 2006 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 5 December 2006 Revised: 29 March 2007 – Accepted: 15 April 2007 – Published: 7 May 2007

Resources for teachers - text:Resources for teachers - text: The Weather Makers – Tim FlanneryThe Weather Makers – Tim Flannery

– Good, popularGood, popular Climate Change: Turning up the heatClimate Change: Turning up the heat

– Barry Pittock – highly qualified climate scientistBarry Pittock – highly qualified climate scientist Rough Guides: Climate ChangeRough Guides: Climate Change

– Sound, quite good description of the scienceSound, quite good description of the science Heat – George MonbiotHeat – George Monbiot

– A sound journalistic approach to actionA sound journalistic approach to action Scientific American August 2007Scientific American August 2007

– Good description of the scientific positionGood description of the scientific position Physics World Feb 2007Physics World Feb 2007

– Good description of the modelsGood description of the models

(Also an article about a ‘sceptic’ – Lindzen)(Also an article about a ‘sceptic’ – Lindzen) Physics World July 2007Physics World July 2007

– ‘‘Bright ideas’ about physics and the energy problemBright ideas’ about physics and the energy problem Also see Scientific American Jan 2008Also see Scientific American Jan 2008

for more on Solar Energyfor more on Solar Energy

Resources for teachers - web:Resources for teachers - web: RealClimate.orgRealClimate.org

– Good, run by very eminent climate scientists with Good, run by very eminent climate scientists with answers to questions and sceptics.answers to questions and sceptics.

United Nations Environment Programme:United Nations Environment Programme:– www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/ – Download the Global Environment Outlook reportDownload the Global Environment Outlook report

Climate Code RedClimate Code Red– David Spratt and Philip SuttonDavid Spratt and Philip Sutton– Download (free) fromDownload (free) from– www.climatecodered.netwww.climatecodered.net

http://www.unep.org/geo/geo4/media/

http://www.climatecodered.net/

teaching the physics of climate change part 2 keith burrows aip education committee physcon feb 2008...

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