teaching a course on government statistics in a university statistics department patrick murphy...
TRANSCRIPT
Teaching a Course on Teaching a Course on Government Statistics in a Government Statistics in a University Statistics DepartmentUniversity Statistics Department
Patrick Murphy
University College Dublin
Ireland
Outline of TalkOutline of Talk1. Introduction
2. Background: Department & Students
3. Course Development
4. The Course: Content
5. The Course: Presentation
6. Assessment
7. Students’ View
8. Lessons Leaned/Alterations
9. Conclusions
STATISTICIANS:STATISTICIANS: Who are we?Who are we?
ACADEMIC Statisticians OFFICIAL Statisticians
INDUSTRY Statisticians
Introduction
COLLABORATION?COLLABORATION?
Academics <--> Industry
Academics <--> Official Statisticians
8 Academics
7 have collaborations with Industry
UCD Statistics:
Introduction
““Statistics”Statistics”
“Facts for the use of the State”
“State Arithmetic”
Fe26
Definition now slightly IRONIC
Introduction
Graduate EmploymentGraduate Employment
National Statistical Offices are significant Employers of Statisticians
Ireland: Central Statistics Office Small NSO But largest employer of Statisticians in Ireland >70 Permanent Statisticians
Consider...
Introduction
Training for such GraduatesTraining for such Graduates
Statistics, Mathematics
Economics, Social Science, Politics
What about specific training in Official Statistics?
Introduction
Graduate Training continued...Graduate Training continued...
1999 Web search of Universities revealedUniversity of Southampton, UK
MSc in Official StatisticsMonash University, Australia
Later I discoveredUniversity of LjubljanaUniversity of Helsinki
Introduction
Real Official Statistics TrainingReal Official Statistics Training
“On the Job”
From International Organisations
– Training of European Statisticians
TES Institute– International Monetary Fund
Introduction
University College DublinUniversity College Dublin
Largest University in Ireland>20,000 StudentsDepartment of Statistics formed in 19868 full time Academic members
Background
Statistics’ StudentsStatistics’ Students
– Approximately 120 Students
Arts – 3 years combined with another subject
Science – 4 year single honours degree or – 4 year joint honours with another subject
Background
Level 1 Statistics:
Degree through Arts or Science Faculties
Final Year Undergraduate Final Year Undergraduate Courses included:Courses included:
Time Series Survey Sampling Design and Analysis of Experiments Survival Analysis Bio-statistics Actuarial Statistics Regression Theory Non-Parametric Statistics
Background
Higher Diploma in StatisticsHigher Diploma in Statistics One year graduate diploma Conversion course for graduates of cognate
disciplines e.g. Psychology, Politics, Economics, Computer Science
Background
M.Sc., M.A.M.Sc., M.A. One year taught Masters Degree Available to Students with a good honours
degree in Statistics, Mathematics or Actuarial & Financial Studies
Course Development 1: GoalsCourse Development 1: Goals
To provide students with an appreciation of the extent to which Official Statistics pervades the lives of citizens of a state
To describe the process by which data are collected, processed, analysed and disseminated by an NSI
To introduce some techniques used extensively in NSI’s that are not taught in other courses in the Department of Statistics
Course Development
Course Development 2: LogisticsCourse Development 2: Logistics
Students:– Final Year Undergraduate– Graduate Diploma– Masters Degree
One-Semester course 24 hours of lectures6 extra computer practical hours
Course Development
Course Development 3: ProblemsCourse Development 3: Problems
Existing Courses: Time Series, Survey Sampling Arts Students may be studying
– Economics, Politics, Sociology etc. Science Students
– unfamiliar with these subjects 1999 Web Search revealed few, if any, similar
courses Textbook? My own background in CSO
Course Development
Course Development 4: Course MaterialsCourse Development 4: Course Materials
National Accounts
UN System of National Accounts
Eurostat - European System of Accounts
Balance of Payments
IMF - Balance of Payments Manual, Compilation Guide and Textbook
Course Development
Books used by official statisticians
Course Development 4: Course MaterialsCourse Development 4: Course Materials
That Was Then, This is Now - Change in Ireland 1949-1999 – Published by the CSO
Journal of the Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland– Articles by TP Linehan Ex Director General CSO
Course Development
Other Irish official statistics sources
Course Development 4: Course MaterialsCourse Development 4: Course Materials
For Example:
Index Number Theory Databases
Course Development
Some parts of the course were easy to prepare
Course ContentCourse Content
Domesday book IMF, Eurostat
Ireland 1800 - 2000 CSO
Background reading on UK
The Course
1. History
Course ContentCourse Content
Statistics Act in Ireland, NSB International Organisations
– IMF, OECD, ILO, Eurostat etc.
CSO as an example of an NSIIncluding Processing of statistics– Non-response, Missing data, Quality Control,
Confidentiality, CAPI, Edifact
The Course
2. Legal and Institutional
Course ContentCourse Content
National Accounts Balance of Payments External Trade Demography Agriculture Building Buisness register Vital Statistics
The Course
3. The Statistics
Data Bank Industry Labour Market Prices Retail Sales Services Transport & Tourism Non CSO data
Course ContentCourse Content
History of Cost of Living Indices Laspeyres & Paasche Substitution Bias Fisher Index Chain method CPI calculation - Household Budget Survey Purchasing Power Parities
The Course
4. Index Numbers
Course ContentCourse Content
Guest Lecturers to reinforce relevance of official statistics
Regional Accounts CPI for Pensioners
The Course
6. Additional Topics
Presentation of the CoursePresentation of the Course
Content not Mathematical but Discursive Statistics Students not used to this Lot of material covered in class Wanted to encourage interaction in class
Course home page on W W W Course notes on web as PDF files Links to external sites, NSI’s etc.
The Course
Hence...
Course AssessmentCourse Assessment
30% Continuous Assessment 70% Final Exam
Continuous Assessment consisted of projects to be completed by students in groups of two or three
Six weeks to complete Oral Presentation Written Report
Assessment
Projects in Year OneProjects in Year One
Unemployment Statistics Agricultural Accounts BOP40 - Balance of Payments Survey Tourism Statistics Consumer Price Index and Household Budget
Survey
Assessment
Projects were based on CSO statistics
Projects in Year OneProjects in Year One
Descriptions of concepts measured Descriptions of data collection procedures International comparisons
Students should also act as consumers and analyse recent statistics
Assessment
Content
Students’ ViewsStudents’ Views
Course unlike others in Statistics Department Arts students acclimatised faster Reaction generally positive Some students very interested in area which
was new to them Two students chose careers in Official Statistics
directly because of this course 3 science students didn’t perform well
Student’s Views
Lessons Learned/AlterationsLessons Learned/Alterations
Course content changed slightly Examination format changed Projects revised to be more relevant to daily life New projects did not concentrate on one are but combined
many to answer a question
Lessons
Report writing was flawed in first year so guidelines were introduced for second year
Projects in Year TwoProjects in Year Two
Project 1.
Economists warn that the Irish economy is in danger of overheating. They cite the recent increase in inflation as one piece of evidence. Discuss, using as many sources as you can find to back up your opinion.
Lessons
Projects in Year TwoProjects in Year Two
Project 2.
Using at least five different indicators compare Ireland’s economic performance since 1990 with the rest of the world and explain why the Irish economy has become known as “The Celtic Tiger”
Lessons
Projects in Year TwoProjects in Year Two
Project 3.
There is currently a housing crisis in this country. Construction firms are booming but a few years ago builders couldn’t find jobs. Using as many official statistics as you can, describe the extent of this situation and explain what you think is its cause.
Lessons
Project GuidelinesProject Guidelines Size 15 pages 12pt font No photocopied material One page Introduction & Conclusion International Comparisons Remainder of 15 pages discretionary Appendix 1:
– Methodologies & Sources used by the NSI’s
Appendix 2: Sources for report
No Plagiarism, Complete Group Participation, Deadline
Lessons
20032003Changes in UCD caused cancellation of
this course
Lessons
FutureFutureLikely amalgamation of Survey Sampling
course with this Official Statistics course
ConclusionsConclusions
Goals metStudents have better understanding of
– work done by official statisticians– how the results of that pervade society
Textbook ???Graduates employed in official statisticsGuest lecturers
ConclusionsConclusions
Conference on Official and Public Statistics
Centre for Official Statistics at UCD?
Recommend similar courses elsewhere
FOR MORE INFO...