TCWCs

BrisbaneDarwinPerth

Activity Report

Bureau of Meteorology

Cyclone Categories

Cat 1 - Wind Gusts 90-125 km/h - MINIMAL damage

Cat 2 - Gusts 125-170 km/h - MODERATE damage

Cat 3 - Gusts 170-225 km/h - MAJOR damage

Cat 4 - Gusts 225-280 km/h - DEVASTATING

Cat 5 - Gusts 280+ km/h - EXTREME event

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1418

86-1

890

1891

-189

5

1896

-190

0

1901

-190

5

1906

-191

0

1911

-191

5

1916

-192

0

1921

-192

5

1926

-193

0

1931

-193

5

1936

-194

0

1941

-194

5

1946

-195

0

1951

-195

5

1956

-196

0

1961

-196

5

1966

-197

0

1971

-197

5

1976

-198

0

1981

-198

5

1986

-199

0

1991

-199

5

1996

-200

0

Coastal Impacts of Tropical Cyclones 1886-2000Queensland East Coast

Severe Non Severe

No significant impact since cyclone AIVU in 1989

Severe Tropical Cyclones Queensland Region 1990-

2002 1990-91 JOY 1991-92 BETSY DAMAN ESAU FRAN 1992-93 POLLY 1993-94 REWA THEODORE 1994-95 VIOLET WARREN AGNES 1995-96 BARRY CELESTE 1996-97 DRENA JUSTIN 1997-98 KATRINA 1998-99 RONA 1999-00 2000-01 ABIGAIL 2001-02 CLAUDIA

500 hPa Geopotential Height Anomalies500 hPa Geopotential Height Anomalies

Known Active TC Seasons 2000 to 2002

2000 to 2001 2001 to 2002

Airport

Cairns

Cyclones in the Cairns area since 1990

JOY - December 1990 – Cat 4

JUSTIN - March 1997 – Cat 2

RONA - February 1999 – Cat 3

STEVE - February 2000 – Cat 2

ABIGAIL – February 2001 – Cat 1

Cyclone STEVE Feb 2000 Radar Image at time of Highest Wind Gust at CAIRNS Airport 143 km/h (77 knots)

Cairns

Cairns

Cyclone STEVE Feb 2000

Radar Image at time of Highest Wind Gust at CAIRNS Airport 143 km/h (77 knots)

http://www.bom.gov.au

100 million hits per month

“ABIGAIL”

2D Radar

3D RadarSatellite

IR Image

3D radar image of severe cyclone ABIGAIL 2001

Tropical cyclone position accuracy (km) - National

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

1985

-86

1986

-87

1987

-88

1988

-89

1989

-90

1990

-91

1991

-92

1992

-93

1993

-94

1994

-95

1995

-96

1996

-97

1997

-98

1998

-99

1999

-00

2000

-01

Season

Acc

ura

cy (

km)

+00hr +12hr +24hr +48hr

Trend (+00hr) Trend (+12hr) Linear (+24hr) Linear (+48hr)

12 hours from landfall – the forecast position is accurate

to about 100km

Tropical Cyclone Threat Map

“issued with every Watch and Warning”

A really BIG cyclonic impact …

“OFA” 4 Feb 1990

NIUE

Queensland Climate Change

and Community Vulnerability

to Tropical Cyclones

Ocean WavesOcean Waves

Wave SetupWave Runup SWLMWL

HAT

AHD

ExtremeExtremeWindsWinds

ExpectedHigh Tide

CurrentsCurrentsSurgeStormStorm

TideTide

Water Level Components of a Storm Tide

Bureau of Meteorology