Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchResearch Domain Sustainable Solutions

Climate ScenariosConcepts, Content, Assumptions

TCFD and BoE Conference on Climate Scenarios, Financial Risk and Strategic PlanningLondon, Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2017

Elmar KrieglerVice Chair, Research Domain Sustainable SolutionsPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

USE OF CLIMATE SCENARIOSScenario Approach

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Use of (climate) scenarios

• Scenarios are NOT predictions or descriptions of most likely outcome!

• Scenarios are exploratory in nature(no business as usual, no single best-guess scenario)

• Scenarios explore consequences of action / inactionand implications of goals and limits

• Scenarios help us to organize and coordinateour thinking (society, politics, business, science)

• In a world of large uncertainty, with widly different scenarios, we may not able tohedge against all futures, but may have to choose

Mercator World Map, 1569

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

TYPES OF CLIMATE SCENARIOSScenario Typology

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Socio-economic scenarios

• Population growth• Human development• Economic development• Urbanisation• Technology• Lifestyles• Policies• Energy use• Land use• Market developments

Emissions and climateforcing scenarios

• Greenhouse gases• Air pollutants• Land use change• Atmosphere changes Climate change projections

• Temperature• Precipitation• Glacier & Ice melting• Extreme weather• Earth tipping pointsClimate impact scenarios

• Agriculture & Food• Health• Water availability• Ecosystems• Floods, droughts, storms• Sea level rise• Economic damages• Societal impacts

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

KEY INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONSScenario design

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

IAM scenario inputs and outputs

• Socio economicdrivers

• Economic System• Climate System • Sustainable

Development Links

• Energy System• Land System

• Emissions

• Policy

• Land use

• Technology • Investments

• Energy use

• Prices

INPUTS OUTPUTS

• Tech Deployment

• Macro-economicimpacts

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research O’Neill, Kriegler et al., Global Env. Change 42: 169‐180, 2017

Key Assumption: Socio-economic drivers

Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs)

Economic cost of climate policy greatly depends on climate target and(!) shared socio‐economic pathway

Riahi et al., Glob Env Change 42: 153-168, 2017

Elmar Kriegler: The Challenge of Mitigating Climate Change

Key assumption: Technology availability and innovation

• Solar PV• Energy storage• CCS  Bioenergy + CCS, Industry CCS• Algae biofuels• Hydrogen• Synthetic carbon‐neutral fuels• Carbon dioxide removal• Carbon capture and use (chemicals, carbon fiber)• Dietary changes• Synthetic feed and meat• …

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Photo by Arni Saeberg

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.

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„No climate policy“ scenario

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.

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2°scenario with CCS

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Mitigation requires changes throughout the economy. Efforts in one sector determine mitigation efforts in others.

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2°scenario without CCS

2oC immediateaction

Key Assumption: Policy

Riahi, Kriegler et al. (2015) Tech. For. & Soc. Change 90A: 8‐23; AMPERE study

Working Group III contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

Delaying mitigation increases the difficulty and narrows the options for limiting warming to 2°C.

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Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

WHAT IS NEEDED?Climate scenarios for the business sector

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

What is needed?

• What data? e.g. energy mix, new capacity additions, investments, carbonprices, land use

• What granularity? temporal, sectoral, technology, spatial

• What is needed to contextualize scenarios? Scenario meta-information

• What complexity and transparency? Standards, Selection, Documentation

• What process? Institutions, Interfaces, Interactions

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

DISCUSSIONThank you for your attention

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

IAM – Resolution

Time ResolutionAnnual to five year time steps, 2005-2100

Spatial Resolutionglobalregional national selected countriesgridded (for some variables)

Elmar KrieglerPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

IAM – Selected study topics (2015 - present)

INDC gap analyses, National & global pathway analysis(e.g. CD‐LINKS)

Deep mitigation pathways (1.5oC & well below 2oC)Role of sectors and technologies(e.g. ADVANCE, EMF33)

SD implications of climate policy (e.g. CD‐LINKS, TWI2050)

Shared Socio‐EconomicPathways (SSPs)