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TCAC NEW DELHI –METHODS AND PROCEDURES USED FOR PREDICTION
DR RAJENDRA KUMAR JENAMANI
Director In-ChargeMeteorological Watch Office (MWO)
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENTNew ATS Building (Room No.-211, 2nd Floor),
Indira Gandhi International (IGI) Airport, New Delhi-110037
E-MAIL [email protected]/ [email protected]
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INTRODUCTION
OBSERVING SYSTEMS AND TRACKING OVER SEA FROM INSAT
PREDICTION TECHNIQUES
COMMUNICATIONS
ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS
RECENT DEVELOPMENT
CONCLUSIONS
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GLOBAL TROPICAL CYCLONE DISTRIBUTION
11
18
33
5.5
1.5
11
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
NW A
TLANTI
CNE
PACIF
ICNW
PACIF
IC
BAYARABIA
N SEA
SIOSW
PACIF
IC
AREA
% O
F G
LOB
AL
FREQ
UEN
CY
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ICAO TCACsTCAC Area of Responsibility Tropical Cyclone
Season• DARWIN - South-East Indian November-April
Ocean• HONOLULU - Central Pacific May - November• MIAMI - Eastern Pacific May – November
• NADI - Southern Pacific November - April
• NEW DELHI- 1) Bay of Bengal April - June2) Arabian Sea October - December
• TOKYO - Western Pacific January - December(including South China Sea)
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Brief HistoryBrief HistoryICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, 09ICAO, Met Div., Montreal, Canada, Meet, 09--26 Sept., 2002 recommended 26 Sept., 2002 recommended TCAsTCAs for for International Civil Aviation in specified International Civil Aviation in specified format.format.IMD agreed to recommendation on 12IMD agreed to recommendation on 12--0808--03.03.IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ IMD HQ asked RSMC, CWD located at the HQ to take the additional work of TCAC to take the additional work of TCAC w.e.fw.e.f. . 2525--0808--03 for ensuing cyclone season.03 for ensuing cyclone season.It also issued order to all It also issued order to all RMCRMC’’ss, , MWOMWO’’ss and and DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for DDGM(WF) regarding issuance of TCA for ICAOICAO
Completing seven yearsCompleting seven years
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CLASSIFICATION OF CYCLONE IN NIO
Less than 17 knots ( < 31 kmph)
17 to 27 knots ( 31 to 49 kmph)
28 to 33 knots ( 50 to 61 kmph)
34 to 47 knots ( 62 to 88 kmph)
48 to 63 knots ( 89 to 118 kmph)
64 to 119 knots ( 119 to 221 kmph)
120 knots and above ( 222 kmph and above)
1. Low Pressure Area
2. Depression
3. Deep Depression
4. Cyclonic Storm
5. Severe Cyclonic Storm
6. Very Severe Cyclonic Storm
7. Super Cyclonic Storm
Associated wind speed in the CirculationTypes of Disturbances
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CYCLONIC STORMS OVER BAY AND ARABIAN SEA
6
14
21
51
3841
30
39
79
98
41
20 0
6
19 19
3 3
7
2629
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12MONTHS
FREQ
UEN
CY
Series1Series2
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Figure 4.5 11-Years running means of Annual frequency of disturbances with the minimum intensity of Depressions and above formed over the Indian region (1891-
2003)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1891 95 99 3 7 11 15 19 23 27 31 35 39 43 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75
1979 83 87 91 95 99
2003
Years
Ann
ual F
requ
ency
Cyclonic Storms and aboveDepressions and above
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Figure 4.6 11-Years running means of frequency of disturbances with the intensity of depressions and above formed in the month of May, October & November
(1891-2003)
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.518
91 96 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 9620
01
Years
Freq
uenc
y
May October November
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Analyzing the past damages and inventorying the population and
property at risk
INDIA-55-74%
B’DESH-10-21%(HIGHEST FOR SEVERE CS)
S’LANKA-2-4%M’MAR-3-13%
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% SHARES OF GLOBAL FREQUENCY IN THE LITTORAL COUNTRIES OF THE BAY OF BENGAL
ONLY 3.4 % CROSSED INDIA AND 0.9 CROSSED BANGALADESH WHILE IT CAUSED 53% AND 23 % OF
HUMAN DEATHS RESPECTIVELY (TOTAL 76%)
3.4
0.9
0.5
0.2
0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
INDIA BGDSH MYNAMAR SRILANKA IN THE SEACOUNTRY
%
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FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO DISASTROUS SURGES IN BANGLADESH
• SHALLOW COASTAL WATER• CONVERGENCE OF THE BAY• LOW AND FLAT TOPOGRAPHY• HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES• THICKLY POPULATED LOW LYING ISLNADS• FAVOURABLE CYCLONE TRACKS• CORIOLIS EFFECTS• INNUMERABLE NUMBER OF INLETS
INCLUDING WORLD LARGEST RIVER SYSTEMS(GANGA-BRAHMAPUTRA-MEGHNA
• SOCIO-ECONMIC FACTOR
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20982404.5 ( Cl. No. )15 Nov 1998 ( VSCS )
3-Feb20-Aug17974404.56 Nov 1996( SCSCHW )
3.5202021912-920696.59 May 1990 ( SCSCHW )
3.52020-Oct8930-942656.58 Nov 1989 ( SCSCHW )
12020996949614 Nov 1984 ( SCSCHW )
3.5202183657612 May 1979 ( SCSCHW )
56026941-91964719 Nov 1977 ( SCSCHW )
surge ( m )(km)(km)(m/s)(hPa)(m/s) No.Date( category)
StormRMREye diameterStrengthMSLPMSSWMax TCyclone Landfall
Meteorological Parameters of Major Cyclones hitting Andhra PradeshMOST SEVERE RECENTLY-1977 AP & 1999 SUPER CYCLONE
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OBSERVING AND TRACKING SYSTEMS OVER SEA
FROM INSAT/RADAR/BUOYS
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IMD’S OBSERVING NETWORK
SURFACE OBSERVATORIES 556
HWSRs 20
UPPER AIR OBSERVATORIES 110
S-BAND CONVENTIONAL RADARS 8
DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS 4
INSAT-2E/METSAT/NOAA/METEOSAT SATELLITES
SHIPS OF INDIAN VOLUNTARY OBSERVING FLEET 207
BUOYS 12
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ActiveMonitoring cyclones & monsoonCMV WindsOLRRainfall EstimationMesoscale featuresFlood/intense precipitation advisorySnow detection
VHRR(VIS,IR,WV)
April 2003INSAT-3A
ActiveMonitoring cyclones & monsoonCMV WindsOLRRainfall Estimation
Very High Resolution Radiometer(VHRR)Bands:0.55-0.75µm10.5-12.5µmWV Band:5-7.1µm
12th Sept., 2002Kalpana-1
Active/Inactive
Major ApplicationsMet Payload with Wavelength Bands
Lunch date Satellite
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COMMUNICATIONS
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AMSS
DELHI
AMSS MUMBAI
AMSS KOLKATA
AMSS CHENNEI
With 4 MWOs
AMSS NAGPUR
AMSS GAUHATI
TCAC-ICAO
ASI/PAC
RODBs headers
BANGKOK
-BTBBYPYX
BRISBANE-YBBYPYX
NADI-NFZZRFXX
SNGAPORE-WSZZYPYM
TOKYO-RJAAYPYX
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PREDICTION TECHNIQUES
•SYNOPTIC•CLIPER•NWP•ISALLOBARIC FIELD
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FORECASTING BY NWP TECHNIQUES
Limited Area Model
Quasi-Lagrangian Model
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ISSUE OF WARNING/ADVISORIES
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ISSUE OF GENERAL WARNINGS AND
SYSTEMS
NATIONALACWCs (KOLKATA, MUMBAI & CHENNAI)
CWCs (BHUBANESWAR, VISAC & AHMEDABAD)
NATIONAL CO-ORDINATION (PUNE WEATHER CENTRAL & CWD(NHAC) NEW DELHI)
INTERANTIONALRSMC/TCAC -TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI
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ISSUE OF TCAC ADVISORIES AS PER ICAO NORMS
• 6-hourly Advisories based on 00, 06-------with time of issue HH+3 hours for all system with wind speed> 34 kts
• P-1---Position, direction of movement, speed and central pressure
• P-2--Must Include 12, 18, 24 hourly forecast position and maximum wind.
• SENT TO MWOS/ALL TCAC/ RODB(REGIONAL OPMET DATA BANK)
• TAKE PART IN ANNUAL ASIA/PAC SIGMET TEST 15 JAN 2007(JUST AN E-MAIL FROM LB SHAH, REGEIONAL DIR, ASIA/PAC)
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TCA FORMAT• DTG YYYYMMDT / TTTT Z• TCAC NEW DELHI• TC BOB / ARB 01• NR 01, 02……• PSN N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo• MOV DDD / FF Kt• C hPa• Max. Wind Mw Mw Mw Kt
• FCST = PSN +12hrs N LaLalala / E LoLoLo lolo• Max. Wind +12hrs Mw Mw Mw Kt• FCST = PSN +18hrs• Max. Wind +18hrs• FCST = PSN +24hrs• Max. Wind +24hrs
NEXT MESSAGE YYYYMMDD / TTTT Z / NO MSG EXP
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TCAC ADVISORY REAL TIME BULLETIN AS PER ICAO(EVERY 6
HOURS)DTG: 20031213/1200ZTCAC: NEW DELHITC: AGNINR: 01
PSN: N 0930 /E 08730MOV: NNW 04 KTC: 998 HPAMax Wind: 40 KT
FCST PSN +12hrs: 140000 N1030 / E 08630Max. Wind +12hrs: 45 KTFCST PSN +18hrs: 140600 N1100 / E 08600Max. Wind + 18 hrs: 50 KTFCST PSN + 24hrs: 141200 N1130/ E 08530Max Wind +24hrs: 55 KTNEXT MSG: 200031213/1800 Z
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BRIEF OUTLINE ON RECENT ADVISORIES
• AKASH • GONU
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IMDIMD-- Adding New Adding New Technology for further Technology for further
Improving Cyclone Improving Cyclone Monitoring/FORECASTING Monitoring/FORECASTING Observational NetworkObservational Network–– New Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface StationsNew Satellite based Automatic Weather Surface Stations–– Existing SExisting S--band Cyclone Detection Radars to be band Cyclone Detection Radars to be
replaced with Doppler mode radarsreplaced with Doppler mode radars–– Strengthening of RS/RW Strengthening of RS/RW
Weather ForecastingWeather Forecasting–– IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing IMD plans to procure a state of the art computing
systemsystem–– Implementation of High resolution forecast models Implementation of High resolution forecast models
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* THANKS *