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Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction Professor Jon Forman University of Oklahoma Slides for a panel of the Comm. on Tax Policy and Simplification ABA Section of Taxation Washington, DC May 6, 2011

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Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction. Professor Jon Forman University of Oklahoma Slides for a panel of the Comm. on Tax Policy and Simplification ABA Section of Taxation Washington, DC May 6, 2011. Overview. The Budget Outlook Short-term Long-term Taxes The Current Tax System - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction

Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction

Professor Jon FormanUniversity of Oklahoma

Slides for a panel of theComm. on Tax Policy and Simplification

ABA Section of TaxationWashington, DC

May 6, 2011

Page 2: Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction

Overview The Budget Outlook

Short-term Long-term

Taxes The Current Tax System Recent Tax Reform Proposals

2

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Short-Term:Projected Budget Totals

Budget Totals, $billions 2011 2012-2021Receipts $2,228 $39,084Outlays $3,708 $46,055 Deficit $1,480 $ 6,971Budget Totals, % GDPReceipts 14.8% 19.9%Outlays 24.7% 23.5% Deficit 9.8% 3.6%Public Debt, % GDP 69.4% 75.3%

3Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 (January 2011), http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/01-26_FY2011Outlook.pdf.

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4Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 (January 2011), http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/01-26_FY2011Outlook.pdf.

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6Congressional Budget Office, Four Observations about the Federal Budget (March 7, 2011), at 6 http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12087/CBO_Presentation_to_NABE_3-7-11.pdf.

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7Congressional Budget Office, Four Observations about the Federal Budget (March 7, 2011), at 7 http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12087/CBO_Presentation_to_NABE_3-7-11.pdf.

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8Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 (January 2011), http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/01-26_FY2011Outlook.pdf.

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12Congressional Budget Office, Four Observations about the Federal Budget (March 7, 2011), at 8 http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12087/CBO_Presentation_to_NABE_3-7-11.pdf.

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13U.S. Department of the Treasury, Financial Management Service, A Citizen’s Guide to the Financial Report of the United States Government (2009).

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14Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook (Revised August 2010), at 5, http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/115xx/doc11579/06-30-LTBO.pdf.

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Factors Explaining Future Federal Spending on Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security (percentage of GDP)

    

Congressional Budget Office, The Long-Term Budget Outlook (June 2009), at 12 (Box 1-2).

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Taxes Overview of the federal tax system Recent tax reform proposals

16

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17Joint Committee on Taxation, Present Law and Historical Overview of the Federal Tax System (JCX-1-11), January 18, 2011, at 71, www.jct.gov.

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Proposed Budget ReceiptsReceipts, $billions 2011 2014Individual income taxes 998 1,671Corporation income taxes 279 398Payroll taxes 819 1,092Excise taxes 73 86Estate and gift taxes 11 14Custom duties and other receipts 47 75

Total receipts 2,228 3,442 GDP $15,034 $17,258 Receipts, % GDP 14.8% 19.9%

18Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 (January 2011), http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/01-26_FY2011Outlook.pdf.

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19

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Top Ten Tax Charts (April 14, 2011), http://www.offthechartsblog.org/top-ten-tax-charts/.

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20Joint Committee on Taxation, Present Law and Historical Overview of the Federal Tax System (JCX-1-11), January 18, 2011, www.jct.gov.Joint Committee on Taxation, Present Law and Historical Overview of the Federal Tax System

(JCX-1-11), January 18, 2011, at 70, www.jct.gov.

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21

U.S. Payroll Tax Rates: Selected Years

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1940 1960 1980 2010

Year

Perc

ent p

aid

join

tly b

y em

ploy

ee a

nd e

mpl

oyer

MedicareSocial Security

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22OECD Tax Database, http://www.oecd.org.

Tax-to-GDP ratio, 2008

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23Edward D. Kleinbard, Muddling Through the Budget Crisis (January 6, 2011); OECD Tax Database, http://www.oecd.org.

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24Joint Committee on Taxation, Present Law and Historical Overview of the Federal Tax System (JCX-1-11), January 18, 2011, at 72, www.jct.gov.

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25Congressional Budget Office, Trends in Federal Tax Revenues and Rates (December 2, 2010), at 10, http://finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/120210DEtest.pdf.

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26

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Top Ten Tax Charts (April 14, 2011), http://www.offthechartsblog.org/top-ten-tax-charts/.

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27Joint Committee on Taxation, Present Law and Historical Overview of the Federal Tax System (JCX-1-11), January 18, 2011, at 66, www.jct.gov.

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28

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Top Ten Tax Charts (April 14, 2011), http://www.offthechartsblog.org/top-ten-tax-charts/.

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29

Top 10 Income Tax Expenditures, 2012 (Billions)

Health insurance exclusion $184Mortgage interest deduction 99401(k) plans 68Step-up of basis at death 61Exclusion of net imputed rental income 51Deductible nonbusiness state and local taxes other than on houses

49

Employer plans 45Charitable contrib. (other than health & education) 43Capital gains (except agriculture, timber, iron, coal) 38Exclusion of interest on tax-exempt bonds 37

2012 Federal Budget, Analytical Perspectives, Chapter 17, Tax Expenditures, Table 17-3, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Analytical_Perspectives.

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30Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2011 to 2021 (January 2011), http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/120xx/doc12039/01-26_FY2011Outlook.pdf.

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31Office of Management and the Budget, A New Era of Responsibility: Renewing America’s Promise (2009).

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3220 Facts About U.S. Inequality that Everyone Should Know, http://stanford.edu/group/scspi/cgi-bin/facts.php.

Productivity and Real Income

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Rising Poverty

33U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2009, (Current Population Report No. P60-238, September 2010), http://www.census.gov.

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34Congressional Budget Office, Trends in Federal Tax Revenues and Rates (December 2, 2010), at 24, http://finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/120210DEtest.pdf.

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Rising Inequality

35

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36Congressional Budget Office, Trends in Federal Tax Revenues and Rates (December 2, 2010), at 15, http://finance.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/120210DEtest.pdf.

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37

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Shares of Total Business Returns and Net Income, 1980-2007

1980 1990 2000 2007S Corporations Returns 4% 8% 11% 12% Net Income 1% 8% 14% 14%Partnerships Returns 11% 8% 8% 10% Net Income 3% 3% 18% 23%Sole Proprietorships Returns 69% 74% 72% 72% Net Income 17% 26% 15% 10%C Corporations Returns 17% 11% 9% 6% Net Income 80% 62% 53% 53%

38Internal Revenue Service, Statistics of Income, www.irs.gov/taxstats.

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Expired Tax Provisions 2010 First-time homebuyer credit Making work pay credit Build America Bonds Estate and gift tax regime for 2010

39Joint Committee on Taxation, List of Expiring Federal Tax Provisions, 2010-2020 (JCX-2-11), January 21, 2011, www.jct.gov.

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Expiring Tax Provisions 2011 Tax credit for research and

experimentation expenses Increased AMT exemption amount Increase in expensing to

$500,000/$2,000,000 Above-the-line deduction for qualified

tuition and related expenses Temporary 2% payroll tax cut

40Joint Committee on Taxation, List of Expiring Federal Tax Provisions, 2010-2020 (JCX-2-11), January 21, 2011, www.jct.gov.

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Expiring Tax Provisions 2012 Most 2001 and 2003 tax cuts

35% maximum rate 10% minimum rate $1,000 child tax credit 15% capital gain and dividend rates

Expanded earned income tax credit American opportunity tax credit Reduced estate and gift taxes

41Joint Committee on Taxation, List of Expiring Federal Tax Provisions, 2010-2020 (JCX-2-11), January 21, 2011, www.jct.gov.

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42

Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, Top Ten Tax Charts (April 14, 2011), http://www.offthechartsblog.org/top-ten-tax-charts/.

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Recent Tax Reform Proposals President’s Economic Recovery Advisory

Board, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation (August 2010).

National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, The Moment of Truth (December 2010).

Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010). Co-Chairs: Pete Domenici & Alice Rivlin

43

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Recent Tax Reform Proposals Bipartisan Tax Fairness and

Simplification Act of 2011 (2011). Senators Ron Wyden and Dan Coats

Rep. Paul Ryan, The Roadmap Plan (2010).

National Taxpayer Advocate, 2010 Annual Report to Congress (December 31, 2010).

President Obama’s FY2012 Budget44

Page 45: Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction

Recent Tax Reform Proposals President Obama, Framework for Shared

Prosperity and Shared Fiscal Responsibility (April 13, 2011).

See also: Choosing The Nation’s Fiscal Future

(National Research Council & National Academy of Public Administration 2010)

The Peterson-Pew Commission on Budget Reform, Red Ink Rising: A Call to Action to Stem the Mounting Federal Debt (2009).

45

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Principles of Sound Tax Policy Simplicity Transparency Neutrality Stability No Retroactivity Broad Bases and Low Rates

46Tax Foundation, The Principles of Sound Tax Policy , http://www.taxfoundation.org/publications/show/25982.html.

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47

More Principles of Sound Tax Policy Distribution matters

A just distribution of economic resources Intergenerational justice/ Deficits

Behavioral consequences matter Encourage work and savings Marriage penalties and bonuses Keep effective rates as low as possible Growth and a stronger dollar

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48

Tax Base Income Consumption Earnings Wealth

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PERAB: Simplification Options Simplification for Families

Consolidate Family Credits and Simplify Eligibility Rules

Simplify and Consolidate Tax Incentives for Education

49PERAB, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/PERAB_Tax_Reform_Report.pdf.

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PERAB: Simplification Options Simplify Savings and Retirement

Incentives Consolidate Retirement Accounts Integrate IRA and 401(k)-type

Contribution Limits and Disallow Nondeductible Contributions

Consolidate Non-Retirement Savings Reduce Retirement Account Leakage Simplify Taxation of Social Security

50PERAB, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/PERAB_Tax_Reform_Report.pdf.

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PERAB: Simplification Options Simplify Taxation of Capital Gains

Harmonize Rules and Tax Rates for Long-Term Capital Gains

Simplify Capital Gains Tax Rate Structure Limit or Repeal Section 1031 Like-Kind

Exchanges Capital Gains on Principal Residences

51PERAB, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/PERAB_Tax_Reform_Report.pdf.

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PERAB: Simplification Options Simplify Tax Filing

The Simple Return Data Retrieval Raise the Standard Deduction and

Reduce the Benefit of Itemized Deductions

Simplification for Small Business The Alternative Minimum Tax

52PERAB, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/PERAB_Tax_Reform_Report.pdf.

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PERAB: Compliance Options Dedicate More Resources to

Enforcement and Enhance Enforcement Tools

Increase Information Reporting and Source Withholding

Clarify the Definition of a Contractor

53PERAB, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/PERAB_Tax_Reform_Report.pdf.

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PERAB: Corporate Tax Reform Reduce Marginal Corporate Rates Broaden the Corporate Tax Base Eliminate or Reduce Tax Expenditures

Eliminate the Domestic Production Deduction

Eliminate or Reduce Accelerated Depreciation

Eliminate Other Tax Expenditures

54PERAB, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/PERAB_Tax_Reform_Report.pdf.

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PERAB: International Corporate Tax Issues Option 1: Move to a Territorial System Option 2: Move to a Worldwide

System with a Lower Corporate Tax Rate

Option 3: Limit or End Deferral with the Current Corporate Tax Rate

Option 4: Retain the Current System but Lower the Corporate Tax Rate

55PERAB, The Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation, http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/PERAB_Tax_Reform_Report.pdf.

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President’s Fiscal Commission Co-chairs: Alan Simpson & Erskine Bowles Designed to raise 21% of GDP Individual tax rates of 12, 22, and 28% Eliminate the AMT Eliminate the phase-out of personal

exemptions & limits on itemized deductions Eliminate itemized deductions but retain

standard deduction & personal exemptions Tax capital gains & dividends as ordinary

income56The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, The Moment of Truth (December

2010), http://www.fiscalcommission.gov; Tax Policy Center, http://www.taxpolicycenter.org.

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President’s Fiscal Commission Eliminate tax expenditures except:

child credit and earned income tax credit mortgage interest deduction—replace

with 12% credit; $500,000 mortgage cap cap and phase out the exclusion for

employer-sponsored health care charitable giving deduction—replace with

12% credit for contributions over 2% AGI

57The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, The Moment of Truth (December 2010), http://www.fiscalcommission.gov.

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President’s Fiscal Commission Eliminate tax expenditures except:

exclusion of interest on state and municipal bonds—tax interest only on newly-issued bonds

retirement savings—maintain basic preferences, but consolidate retirement accounts and cap annual tax-preferred contributions at lower of $20,000 or 20 percent of income; expand savers’ credit

defined benefit pensions58The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, The Moment of Truth (December

2010), http://www.fiscalcommission.gov.

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President’s Fiscal Commission Eliminate corporate tax expenditures

& reduce corporate tax rate to 28% Territorial tax system for active

foreign-source income Increase Social Security taxable wage

base to 90% of wages, by 2050 Increase the gasoline excise tax on

gasoline by 15¢ per gallon59The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, The Moment of Truth (December

2010), http://www.fiscalcommission.gov.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Co-Chairs: Pete Domenici & Alice

Rivlin one-year payroll tax holiday in 2011

to help stimulate economic recovery individual tax rates: 15% on the 1st

$50,000 of taxable income ($100,000 for married couples, 27% on excess

eliminate the AMT60Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010),

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Eliminate tax expenditures:

exclusion from tax of the inside buildup of life insurance and deferred annuities

credits and deductions for higher education expenses

credit for child & dependent care exclusion from income of benefits under

Section 125 cafeteria plans foreign earned income exclusion

61Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010), http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Exempt the first $1,000 of net long-

term gains from taxation (indexed for inflation) tax any additional long-term gains and

all qualified dividends as ordinary income include in income unrealized capital

gains at death Cap and phase out the exclusion for

employer-sponsored health care62Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010),

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Eliminate deduction for state and

local taxes Replace charitable contributions and

mortgage interest deductions with 15% refundable credits

Retain medical deduction

63Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010), http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Replace the standard deduction,

personal exemptions, head of household filing status, the child tax credit, and the earned income tax credit with two refundable credits: $1,600 for each dependent child an earnings credit equal to 21.3 percent

of the first $20,300 of earnings

64Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010), http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Tax all Social Security benefits,

eliminate the elderly credit & provide 2 new credits: 7.5% of Social Security benefits 15% of the current standard deduction

for individuals age 65 or older Increase Social Security taxable wage

base to 90% of wages

65Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010), http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Impose a 6.5% broad-based

consumption tax Impose an excise tax 1¢/ounce on

sugar-sweetened beverages Raise the excise tax on alcoholic

beverages to 25¢/ounce Estate tax: $3.5 million exemption

and 45% maximum tax rate66Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010),

http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Bipartisan Policy Center Corporate taxes

reduce the corporate rate to 27% eliminate many tax expenditures:

domestic production deduction research and experimentation credit accelerated depreciation for rental housing

retain deferral of income for controlled foreign corporations

67Bipartisan Policy Center, Restoring America’s Future (November 2010), http://bipartisanpolicy.org/sites/default/files/FINAL%20DRTF%20REPORT%2011.16.10.pdf.

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Wyden-Coats Tax Act Like the Tax Reform Act of 1986 Individuals

top tax rate of 35% standard deduction of $15,000 ($30,000

for couples) repeal AMT 35% exclusion for capital gains and

qualified dividends eliminate lots of tax breaks

68Senator Ron Wyden, The Bipartisan Tax Fairness and Simplification Act of 2011 (2011), http://wyden.senate.gov/issues/legislation/details/?id=fb5b603a-ed94-48a8-8ff1-c220c1052b3f.

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Wyden-Coats Tax Act Corporate & business

replaces the graduated corporate rate structure with a flat rate of 24%

eliminates many business tax breaks allow unlimited expensing of equipment

and inventories for small businesses

69Senator Ron Wyden, The Bipartisan Tax Fairness and Simplification Act of 2011 (2011), http://wyden.senate.gov/issues/legislation/details/?id=fb5b603a-ed94-48a8-8ff1-c220c1052b3f.

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Rep. Ryan’s Roadmap Designed to raise 19% of GDP Pay income taxes through existing

law, or Through a highly simplified code with

virtually no tax breaks 10% on the first $50,000 ($100,000 for

couples), 25% on the rest $39,000 standard deduction & personal

exemptions for a family of 470Paul Ryan, The Roadmap Plan (2010), http://www.roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov.

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Rep. Ryan’s Roadmap eliminate the AMT eliminate taxes on interest, capital gains,

and dividends Eliminate the estate tax Replace the corporate income tax with

a border-adjustable business consumption tax of 8.5%

See also House Committee on Budget, The Path to Prosperity (2011)

71Paul Ryan, The Roadmap Plan (2010), http://www.roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov.

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National Taxpayer Advocate Repeal the AMT Consolidate the family tax provisions Improve other provisions relating to

taxation of the family unit Consolidate education savings

incentives Consolidate retirement savings

incentives72National Taxpayer Advocate, 2010 Annual Report to Congress (December 31, 2010),

http://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/Media-Resources/Annual-Report-To-Congress-Full-Report.

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National Taxpayer Advocate Simplify worker classification

determinations Eliminate (or reduce incentives for

lawmakers to enact tax sunsets Eliminate (or simplify) phase outs Streamline the penalty regime

73National Taxpayer Advocate, 2010 Annual Report to Congress (December 31, 2010), http://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/Media-Resources/Annual-Report-To-Congress-Full-Report.

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President Obama: Reform Corporate & Individual Tax “I’m asking Democrats and Republicans to

simplify the system. Get rid of the loopholes. Level the playing field. And use the savings to lower the corporate tax rate for the first time in 25 years – without adding to our deficit. It can be done.”

“In fact, the best thing we could do for all Americans is to simplify the individual tax code. This will be a tough job, but members of both parties have expressed interest in doing this, and I am prepared to join them.”

74Text of President Barack Obama’s State of the Union Address , http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0111/48181.html.

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President Obama’s 2012 Budget Extend the Earned Income Credit Expand the Dependent Care Credit Extend American Opportunity Credit Tax Dividends and Net Long-Term

Capital Gains at a 20-Percent Rate for Upper-Income Taxpayers

Reduce the Value of Certain Tax Expenditures for Upper-Income

75U.S. Department of the Treasury, General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2012 Revenue Proposals (February 2011), http://www.treasury.gov/.

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Enhance and Make Permanent the Research and Experimentation (R&E) Tax Credit

Reform & Extend Build America Bonds Reform Treatment of Financial

Institutions and Products Reinstate Superfund Taxes Reform U.S. International Tax System

76

President Obama’s 2012 Budget

U.S. Department of the Treasury, General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2012 Revenue Proposals (February 2011), http://www.treasury.gov/.

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President Obama’s 2012 Budget Eliminate Oil and Gas Preferences Eliminate Coal Preferences Expand Information Reporting Improve Compliance by Businesses

Require Greater Electronic Filing Worker Classification

Strengthen Tax Administration Expand Penalties

77U.S. Department of the Treasury, General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2012 Revenue Proposals (February 2011), http://www.treasury.gov/.

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President Obama’s Framework for Shared Prosperity and Shared Fiscal Responsibility

78The White House, http://www.whitehouse.gov/winning-the-future/fiscal-framework.

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President Obama’s Framework: another 12-year estimate: $5.3T Restore high-bracket tax rates to Clinton-era

levels: $1T Cut tax-expenditure spending through the tax

code: $1T Cut health care spending: $0.5T Cut other mandatory spending by: $0.4T Cut security spending: $0.4T Cut non-security discretionary spending: $0.8T Those reductions will carry with them a

reduction in net interest of: $1.2T79Brad DeLong,

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2011/04/the-obama-deficit-reduction-framework.html.

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President Obama’s Framework: Tax Reform $3 of spending cuts and interest

savings for every $1 from tax reform that contributes to deficit reduction

comprehensive tax reform to produce a system which is fairer, has fewer loopholes, less complexity, and is not rigged in favor of those with lawyers and accountants to game it.

80The White House, Fact Sheet: The President’s Framework for Shared Prosperity and Shared Fiscal Responsibility (April 13, 2011), www.whitehouse.gov.

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President Obama’s Framework: Tax Reform Would not extend the Bush tax cuts for

the wealthiest Americans Builds on the Fiscal Commission’s goal

of reducing tax expenditures to both lower rates and lower the deficit

Corporate tax eliminate loopholes reduce distortions lower the corporate tax rate

81The White House, Fact Sheet: The President’s Framework for Shared Prosperity and Shared Fiscal Responsibility (April 13, 2011), www.whitehouse.gov.

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Consumption Tax Options Progressive Personal Consumption

Tax Subtraction method Value Added

Tax Treasury Department proposal for

Business Activity Tax (BAT) Credit-method (European) VAT National retail sales tax (RST)

82Charles E. McClure, Jr., Why the United States Needs a Value Added Tax (2009), http://www.taxadmin.org/Fta/meet/09am/papers/McClure.pdf.

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Earlier Tax Reform Proposals President’s Advisory Panel on Tax

Reform, Final Report (2005), http://govinfo.library.unt.edu/taxreformpanel.

U.S. Treasury Department, The President's Tax Proposals to the Congress for Fairness, Growth, and Simplicity (1985).

84

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Earlier Tax Reform Proposals U.S. Treasury Department, Tax

Reform for Fairness, Simplicity, and Economic Growth: The Treasury Department Report to the President (3 volumes, 1984).

David Bradford and the U.S. Treasury Tax Policy Staff, Blueprints for Tax Reform (Arlington, VA: Tax Analysts. 2nd ed. 1984).

85

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86

Conclusion President needs 60 votes in the

Senate and cooperation in the House The whole tax system is in play

And will be in play for years Lobbyists will be tripping over each other

Change is almost always incremental

Page 87: Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction

Sources The President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board, The

Report on Tax Reform Options: Simplification, Compliance, and Corporate Taxation (August 2010), http://www.whitehouse.gov.

The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, The Moment of Truth (December 2010), http://www.fiscalcommission.gov.

The Bipartisan Policy Center Debt Reduction Task Force, Restoring America’s Future: Reviving the Economy, Cutting Spending and Debt, and Creating a Simple, Pro-Growth Tax System (November 2010), http://bipartisanpolicy.org.

87

Page 88: Tax Reform and Deficit Reduction

Sources Senators Ron Wyden & Dan Coats, Bipartisan Tax

Fairness and Simplification Act of 2011 (2011), http://wyden.senate.gov/issues/legislation/details/?id=fb5b603a-ed94-48a8-8ff1-c220c1052b3f.

Representative Paul Ryan, The Roadmap Plan (2010), http://www.roadmap.republicans.budget.house.gov.

House Committee on Budget, The Path to Prosperity: Restoring America’s Promise (2011), http://budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/PathToProsperityFY2012.pdf.

Joint Committee on Taxation, Present Law and Historical Overview of the Federal Tax System (JCX-1-11), January 18, 2011, www.jct.gov.

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Sources National Taxpayer Advocate, 2010 Annual Report to

Congress (December 31, 2010), http://www.taxpayeradvocate.irs.gov/Media-Resources/Annual-Report-To-Congress-Full-Report.

Office of Management and Budget, 2012 Federal Budget, http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget.

The White House, Fact Sheet: The President’s Framework for Shared Prosperity and Shared Fiscal Responsibility (April 13, 2011), www.whitehouse.gov.

Joint Committee on Taxation, List of Expiring Federal Tax Provisions, 2010-2020 (JCX-2-11), January 21, 2011, www.jct.gov.

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Sources The Tax Policy Center, Deficit Reduction Proposals,

http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxtopics/Deficit-Reduction-Proposals.cfm.

Joshua Rosenberg, The U.S. Fiscal Trajectory: Causes and Consequences (January 21, 2011), http://www.abanet.org/tax/MID11/papers/Rosenberg-slidesABA-Boca-Rosenberg.pdf.

90U.S. Department of the Treasury, General Explanations of the Administration’s Fiscal Year 2012 Revenue Proposals (February 2011), http://www.treasury.gov/.

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About the Author Jonathan Barry Forman (“Jon”) is the Alfred P.

Murrah Professor of Law at the University of Oklahoma College of Law and the author of Making America Work (Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press, 2006).

Jon was the Professor in Residence at the Internal Revenue Service Office of Chief Counsel, Washington, DC, for the 2009-2010 academic year.

Jon can be reached at [email protected], 405-325-4779, www.law.ou.edu/faculty/forman.shtml.

These slides are available at http://jay.law.ou.edu/faculty/jforman/Speeches/2011ABA-TAX-forman.ppt.

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