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TATA Chemicals Ltd
HOLD Target Price: Rs.319.00
CMP: Rs.277.00 Market Cap.: Rs.65158.71mn.
Date: February 25, 2010
Key Ratios:
Particulars FY09 FY10E FY11E
OPM (%) 16 22 19
NPM (%) 5 7 7
ROE (%) 16 14 14
ROCE (%) 28 27 23
P/BV(x) 1.37 1.17 1.01
P/E(x) 10.05 9.81 8.68
EV/EBDITA(x) 3.35 3.08 3.15
Debt Equity Ratio 0.77 0.73 0.69
Key Data:
Sector Fertilizers
Face Value Rs.10.00
52 wk. High/Low (Rs.) 341.80/99.70
Volume (2 wk. Avg.) 142000
BSE Code 500770
SYNOPSIS
• We initiated Coverage of TATA Chemicals Ltd and
set a target Price of Rs. 319.00.
• Tata Chemicals Limited (TCL) is India's leading
manufacturer of inorganic chemicals, fertilisers and
food additives. It is the world's second largest
producer of soda ash. With manufacturing facilities
in India, UK, the Netherlands, Kenya and USA.
• Tata Chemicals, the second largest producer of Soda
Ash in the world has launched Tata Swach - a unique
and innovative water purifier.
• Tata Chemicals Ltd has acquired 35.68% stake in
Rallis India for about Rs 3.63 billion.
• Net sales of the company are expected to grow at a
CAGR of 21% over 2008 to 2011E.
Share Holding Pattern:
V.S.R. Sastry
Vice President
Equity Research Desk
91-22-25276077
Dr. V.V.L.N. Sastry Ph.D.
Chief Research Officer
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Table of Content
Investment Highlights ........................................................................................................... .3
Company Profile……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..5
Business Area………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………...6
Peer Group comparison………………………………………………………………………………………………….….….11
Keyconcern………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………..11
Financials……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12
Charts………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………..14
Outlook and conclusions……………………………………………………………………………………………………....16
Industry Overview…….…………………….……………………………………………………………….………….…….. ..17
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Investment Highlights
Q3 FY10 Results Update
TATA Chemicals Ltd has disclosed its consolidated results for the quarter ended December
31, 2009. The company has posted a net profit of Rs.2123.70 million for the quarter ended
December 31, 2009 as compared to Rs.911.80 million for the quarter ended December 31,
2008, up 132.91%. Net sales for the quarter is declined by 24.51% to Rs.26498.50 million
as against for Rs.35100.10 million for same quarter last year. Total Income for the quarter
stood at Rs.26562.2 million indicating with decline of 24.34%. For the quarter EPS of the
company is stood at Rs.9.03.
Quarterly Results - Consolidated (RS in mn)
As At Dec-09 Dec-08 %change
Net sales 26498.50 35100.10 (24.51)
Net profit 2123.70 911.80 132.91
Basic EPS 9.03 3.88 132.92
TATA chemicals launch water purfier
Tata Chemicals, the second largest producer of Soda Ash in the world has launched Tata
Swach - a unique and innovative water purifier. It is replaceable filter based product
which does not require electric power or running water to operate.
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Based on low cost, natural ingredients the product delivers safe drinking water at a new
market benchmark of Rs 30 per month. It can purify up to 3,000 litres of water after which
the cartridge bulb stops water flow. The water purifier gives the user enough lead time for
catridge replacement.
Tata Swach is the result of years of collaboration between several Tata companies
including TCS, Tata Chemicals and Titan. Based on an innovative concept developed by the
TCS Innovation Labs - TRDDC, the Swatch technology combines low cost ingredients such
as rice husk ash with superior nano - technology. The efficiency of the product has been
rigorously tested to meet internationally accepted water purification standards.
Allotment of shares
Tata Chemicals Ltd has sold 810800 Equity Shares of Rs. 10/- each of Titan Industries Ltd
to Tata Sons Ltd as a block deal on the Stock Exchange at a price of Rs. 1233.40/- per
equity share on September 11, 2009.
TCL Buys 35.68% stake in Rallis India
Tata Chemicals Ltd has acquired 35.68% stake in Rallis India for about Rs 3.63 billion. It
bought nearly 4.27 million equity shares at a price of Rs 850/- per share in off-market
transactions from other promoter group companies today.
With the acquisition, the shareholding of the company in Rallis India stands increased
from nearly 1.13 million equity shares (9.40% of the paid up capital) to nearly 5.40 million
equity shares (45.08% of the paid up capital).
5
Break up of Expenditure
Company Profile
Tata Chemicals Limited (TCL) is a global company with interests in chemicals, crop nutrition and
consumer products. It is the world's second largest producer of soda ash. With manufacturing
facilities in India, UK, the Netherlands, Kenya and USA, TCL is the world’s most geographically
diversified soda ash company, with an efficient supply chain that can service customers better
and faster across the globe.
Established in 1939 at Mithapur (in Gujarat, India), TCL is a part of the Tata group. The company
is a pioneer and market leader in the Indian branded iodised salt segment and India's leading
producer of nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilisers.
TCL’s global soda ash capacity is around 5.5 million tonnes per annum, out of which 60 per cent
capacity is from natural soda ash deposits at Wyoming, USA and Lake Magadi, Kenya. Along
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with soda ash (sodium carbonate), the company also manufactures sodium bicarbonate and
bulk chemicals such as sulphuric acid, phosphoric acid, and sodium tripoly phosphate (STPP).
The company has extended its operations into the services sector and touches lives through
applications in agriculture, animal nutrition, construction, consumer products, glass, metals,
pharmaceuticals, soaps and detergents, and textiles and leather industries.
Global reach: Since 2005 Tata Chemicals has adopted an internalisation strategy. It acquired an
equal partnership in Indo Maroc Phosphore SA (IMACID), along with Chambal Fertilisers and
global phosphate major OCP of Morocco in that year. In early 2006, it completed the acquisition
of UK based Brunner Mond Group and its subsidiary, the Magadi Soda Company in Kenya.
Business Area:
7
Chemicals:
a) Soda Ash:
Tata Chemicals is the world's second largest producer of soda ash with a global capacity of
around 5.5 million tonnes per annum, of which 60 per cent capacity is from natural soda
ash deposits at Wyoming, USA and Lake Magadi, Kenya.
Soda ash is manufactured synthetically at TCL's Mithapur plant in India and Brunner
Mond's plants in the UK and the Netherlands. At Mithapur, TCL uses the conventional
Solway process to produce soda ash.
b) Sodium Bicarbonate
Tata Chemicals' sodium bicarbonate business focuses on global markets and new business
applications. The company makes sodium bicarbonate for pharmaceutical and industrial
use, and as a food additive. TCL's sodium bicarbonate plant has a capacity of 50,000 tonnes
per annum. Its products sell in India, the Middle East, Africa and Bangladesh.
c) Alkakarb
Alkakarb, the first animal feed grade sodium bicarbonate in India, is TCL's first step towards
value-added bicarbonate business. The company desires to use the bicarbonate brands
already conceived by Brunner Mond so as to have homogeneity across its business
geographies.
d) Chemicals connections
I. Caustic soda
TCL is able to deliver low-cost caustic soda to the market due to its adoption of energy-
efficient, membrane-cell technology and the captive availability of salt and of power at
the Mithapur facility.
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II. Chlorine based products
TCL produces hydrochloric acid and liquid chlorine at its Mithapur facility. Brunner
Mond makes and sells calcium chloride in its UK facilities.
III. Bromine based products
TCL manufactures several variants of bromine and bromine-based compounds, such as
liquid bromine technical, hydrobromic acid and sodium bromide (photographic grade).
Bromine is used primarily in the manufacture of organic and inorganic bromides
IV. Gypsum
Gypsum, formed in crystalline lumps or powder form, is yet another product from the
Tata Chemicals stable. Gypsum is used as an ingredient for Portland cement, for soil
treatment, and to stabilise volatile compounds and dissolve nitrogenous ones
V. Phosphoric and sulphuric acids
TCL's Haldia plant produces industrial grade phosphoric and sulphuric acids; these are
inputs to the manufacturing of phosphatic fertilisers at the plant, and are also a part of
TCL's product portfolio.
Crop nutrition and agri-business
Fertilisers
Nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium are key agro-nutrients for crops. In India Tata Chemicals
is present in all three crop nutrition groups through its fertiliser product base that spans:
a) Urea
Urea is an important nitrogenous fertiliser. The nature of the soil in many Indian regions is
such that nitrogenous fertilisers are an important input for most crops. Tata Chemicals is a
major manufacturer of the product in India.
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b) Phosphatic fertilisers
Tata Chemicals manufactures several key phosphatic fertilisers that are leading brands in
the Indian market. The company makes and sells sodium tripolyphosphate (STPP), di-
ammonium phosphate (DAP), NPK complexes and single super phosphate (SSP) fertilisers at
its Haldia complex in West Bengal
Consumer products
a) Salt
Tata Chemicals is the market leader in packaged salts in India with more than half the
total market consuming Tata brands. The reason: Tata Salt and its fellow brands go far
beyond taste to target health initiatives such as iodine deficiency and low sodium
requirements.
The company manufactures four varieties of salt: iodised salt, crystalline salt, vacuum salt
and pure salt.
b) Cooking soda
Tata Chemicals' sodium bicarbonate business focuses on global markets and new business
applications. The company makes sodium bicarbonate for pharmaceutical and industrial
use, and as a food additive. TCL's sodium bicarbonate plant has a capacity of 50,000
tonnes per annum. Its products sell in India, the Middle East, Africa and Bangladesh.
Bio fuel
Tata Chemicals' biofuels business has grown out of its extensive expertise in chemicals
manufacturing, the agriculture and crop-nutrition space, and its research capability through the
Innovation Centre. Its product portfolio includes: Bioethanol, Bio diesel
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Fresh Produce
Tata Chemicals, through its new business venture Khet-Se, has set up a state-of-the-art facility
for fresh fruit and vegetables sourcing, packaging and distribution. The first centre has already
opened in Malerkotla, Punjab; the next will come up in Mumbai.
Services
With years of expertise in the agri-business space, Tata Chemicals has extended its business
operations into the services sector in India.
Tata Kisan Sansar
Tata Kisan Sansar outlets form a network of franchised retail outlets in the Indian states of
Uttar Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Punjab, Haryana, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Bihar. The network
of agri-service centers, serve an area of around 22,000 villages, with access to over 3.5 million
farmers.
The centres are one-stop resource centres – they stock seeds, pesticides and fertilisers, lease
out farm equipment and implements, and provide services such as soil testing and mapping,
fertiliser mapping, credit finance, crop insurance, etc.
Khet Se
Tata Chemicals, through its new business venture Khet-Se Agriproduce India, has set up state-
of-the-art facilities for fresh fruit and vegetables sourcing, packaging and distribution. The first
centre has already opened in Punjab; the next will come up in Maharashtra. Khet-Se will source
fruits and vegetables for the fruit and vegetable retailer through its conveniently located
wholesale stores.
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Call centres
Tata Chemicals has set up business process outsourcing (BPO) centres in Mithapur, Gujarat and
Babrala, Uttar Pradesh. These centres are unique in the sense that they are based in rural India,
and thus provide employment and self-sustaining community development opportunities to the
communities of these areas.
Subsidiaries and JV
Brunner Mond
Magadi Soda
Khet-Se
General Chemical Industrial Products (GCIP)
Peer Group Comparison
Name of the company CMP (Rs.)
Market
Cap.(Rs.mn.) EPS(Rs.) P/E(x) P/Bv(x) Dividend(%)
TATA Chemicals Ltd 277.00 65158.71 27.55 10.05 1.37 90.00
United Phosphorus Ltd 156.00 68528.0 4.03 38.68 3.77 75.00
Nagarjuna Agrichem Ltd 263.50 3925.7 38.92 6.77 2.60 50.00
Basant Agro Tech Ltd 54.30 454.1 6.55 8.29 1.19 8.00
Key Concerns
• Uncertainties in Government Policies with regard to Fertiliser subsidy affecting
realization and profitability.
• The raw material price is uncertain and any steep rise in the raw material will affect the
company’s profits
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Financials Results
12 Months Ended Profit & Loss Account (Consolidated)
Value(Rs.in.mn) FY08 FY09 FY10E FY11E
Description 12m 12m 12m 12m
Net Sales 60231.40 122576.60 96934.98 106628.47
Other Income 5667.40 833.80 1589.97 1510.47
Total Income 65898.80 123410.40 98524.95 108138.94
Expenditure -50480.00 -103985.40 -77367.02 -87435.35
Operating Profit 15418.80 19425.00 21157.92 20703.60
Interest -1288.80 -3952.60 -3955.37 -4153.14
Gross profit 14130.00 15472.40 17202.55 16550.46
Deprecation -3138.30 -4226.40 -4384.96 -4735.76
Exceptional Items 767.00 -2072.80 -2126.09 -2232.39
Profit Before Tax 11758.70 9173.20 10691.50 11814.70
Tax -2114.70 -1575.10 -2884.07 -2953.68
Profit After Tax 9644.00 7598.10 7807.43 8861.03
Minority Interest 0.00 -1117.10 -1340.59 -1407.62
Share of P& L Assoc 0.00 0.00 173.46 52.40
Net Profit 9644.00 6481.00 6640.30 7505.81
Equity capital 2309.80 2352.30 2352.30 2352.30
Reserves 34843.80 45345.50 53152.93 62013.95
Face value (Rs.) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
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EPS 41.75 27.55 28.23 31.91
Quarterly Ended Profit & Loss Account (Consolidated)
Value(Rs.in.mn) 30-Jun-09 30-Sep-09 31-Dec-09 31-Mar-10E
Description 3m 3m 3m 3m
Net sales 22845.00 22417.90 26498.50 25173.58
Other income 163.20 1293.00 63.70 70.07
Total Income 23008.20 23710.90 26562.20 25243.65
Expenditure -18157.80 -18384.20 -20937.90 -19887.12
Operating profit 4850.40 5326.70 5624.30 5356.52
Interest -1076.40 -1014.70 -909.40 -954.87
Gross profit 3774.00 4312.00 4714.90 4401.65
Deprecation -1036.70 -1066.20 -1113.20 -1168.86
Exceptional Items -1346.00 -325.40 -221.80 -232.89
Profit Before Tax 1391.30 2920.40 3379.90 2999.90
Tax -727.90 -455.10 -921.10 -779.97
Profit After Tax 663.40 2465.30 2458.80 2219.93
Minority Interest -238.30 -333.70 -373.10 -395.49
Share of P& L Assoc 0.00 96.70 38.00 38.76
Net Profit 425.10 2228.30 2123.70 1863.20
Equity capital 2352.30 2352.30 2352.30 2352.30
Face value (Rs.) 10.00 10.00 10.00 10.00
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EPS 1.81 9.47 9.03 7.92
Charts:
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1 Year Comparative Graph
Outlook and Conclusion
At the current market price of Rs.277.00, the stock is trading at 9.81 x FY10E and 8.68 x
FY11E respectively.
Price to Book Value of the stock is expected to be at 1.17 x and 1.01 x respectively for
FY10E and FY11E.
Earning per share (EPS) of the company for the earnings for FY10E and FY11E is seen at
Rs.28.23 and Rs.31.91 respectively.
Net Sales of the company are expected to grow at a CAGR of 21% over 2008 to 2011.
On the basis of EV/EBITDA, the stock trades at 3.08 x for FY10E and 3.15 x for FY11E.
Tata Chemicals, the second largest producer of Soda Ash in the world has launched Tata
Swach - a unique and innovative water purifier.
Tata Chemicals Ltd has acquired 35.68% stake in Rallis India for about Rs 3.63 billion.
We expect that the company will keep its growth story in the coming quarters also. We
recommend ‘HOLD’ in this particular scrip with a target price of Rs.319.00.
TATA Chemicals Ltd BSE SENSEX
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Industry Overview
Fertilizer sector
� The Indian fertilizer industry has succeeded in meeting almost fully the demand of all
chemical fertilizers except for MOP. The industry had a very humble beginning in 1906,
when the first manufacturing unit of Single Super Phosphate (SSP) was set up in Ranipet
near Chennai with an annual capacity of 6000 MT. The Fertilizer & Chemicals Travancore
of India Ltd. (FACT) at Cochin in Kerala and the Fertilizers Corporation of India (FCI) in
Sindri in Bihar were the first large sized -fertilizer plants set up in the forties and fifties
with a view to establish an industrial base to achieve self-sufficiency in food grains.
Subsequently, green revolution in the late sixties gave an impetus to the growth of
fertilizer industry in India. The seventies and eighties then witnessed a significant
addition to the fertilizer production capacity.
� Fertilizer sector is a very crucial for Indian economy because it provides a very important
input to agriculture. The fertilizer industry in India has played a pivotal role in achieving
self – sufficiency in food grains as well as in rapid and sustained agriculture growth.
India is the third largest producer and consumer of fertilizers in the world after China
and the United States. The growth of the Indian fertilizer industry has been largely
determined by the policies pursued by the government. The government exercised
extensive controls on the pricing, distribution and movement of fertilizers. The industry
is capital intensive and the production process energy intensive with the combined cost
of feedstock and fuel accounting for anywhere between 55 and 80 per cent of cost of
production, depending on the type of fertilizers.
Determinants of Fertilize Demand
• Rainfall and irrigation facilities
• Relative prices of fertilizers
• Cropping pattern
• Government policies
Rising demand for fertilizers
� There has been significant growth in the consumption of fertilizers in last three years
due to overall good monsoon. The growth in NPK consumption was 9.50% in 2004-05,
10.60 % in 2005-06 and 8.40% per cent in 2006-07.Against the robust growth in
consumption, domestic fertilizer production has remained range – bound in the last
decades. The surge in fertilizers demand and stagnant to modest increase in production
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has widened the gap between consumption and production causing larger dependence
on imports. Therefore, the rising demand for fertilizers is providing ample scope for the
companies in this sector to increase their production capacity and volumes thereby,
driving the growth of fertilizer sector.
� The installed capacity as on 30.01.2003 has reached a level of 121.10 lakh MT of
nitrogen (inclusive of an installed capacity of 208.42 lakh MT of urea after reassessment
of capacity) and 53.60 lakh MT of phosphatic nutrient, making India the 3rd largest
fertilizer producer in the world. The rapid build-up of fertilizer production capacity in the
country has been achieved as a result of a favorable policy environment facilitating large
investments in the public, co-operative and private sectors. Presently, there are 57 large
sized fertilizer plants in the country manufacturing a wide range of nitrogenous,
phosphatic and complex fertilizers. Out of these, 29 unit produce urea, 20 units produce
DAP and complex fertilizers 13 plants manufacture Ammonium Sulphate (AS), Calcium
Ammonium Nitrate (CAN) and other low analysis nitrogenous fertilizers. Besides, there
are about 64 medium and small-scale units in operation producing SSP
� The Indian fertilizer industry has come a long way since its early days post
independence. India today is one of the largest producer and consumer of Fertilizers in
the world. India’s production in terms of nutrients (N & P) reached a level of 155 lakh
MT in 2005-06 from 0.39 lakh MT in 1951-52. Similarly, consumption of fertilizers in
terms of nutrients (NPK) has also grown from about 0.66 lakh MT in 1951-52 to nearly
184 lakh MT in 2004-05.
� The Indian Fertilizer industry, given its strategic importance in ensuring self–sufficiency
of food grain production in the country, has for decades, been under Government
control. The Government has over the years, provided subsidies/ concessions through
the fertilizer companies to farmers and the manufacturers have been compensated
through various schemes. Though the Government control helped in meeting the
objective of ensuring creation of capacities and ultimately achieving self-sufficiency in
food grain production, it did not encourage improving efficiencies in the sector.
� Burgeoning subsidy bill and the need to focus on fiscal prudence, Government polices in
recent times are aimed at encouraging efficiencies in the sector. Policy measures like
the new pricing scheme have made the operations of less efficient players unviable. The
Government polices today are oriented towards achieving the stated objective of total
deregulation in the sector. However, the uncertainty over exact policy parameters and
absence of a comprehensive long term policy has not augured well for the industry. The
financial year 2006-07 began with practically no clarity on the policy parameters for
both nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers.
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� Another important issue confronting the sector is with respect to the feedstock. Natural
gas which is the main feedstock for production of nitrogenous fertilizers is available in
limited quantities and the industry competes with the power sector for its share. With
the Government policy favoring conversion to gas based units, the demand for gas is
only expected to go up in the future, which may in turn lead to further shortages.
� The Indian fertilizer industry has come a long way since its early days post
independence. India today is one of the largest producer and consumer of Fertilisers in
the world. India’s production in terms of nutrients (N & P) reached a level of 155 lakh
MT in 2005-06 from 0.39 lakh MT in 1951-52. Similarly, consumption of fertilizers in
terms of nutrients (NPK) has also grown from about 0.66 lakh MT in 1951-52 to nearly
184 lakh MT in 2004-05. The Indian Fertilizer industry, given its strategic importance in
ensuring self– sufficiency of food grain production in the country, has for decades, been
under Government control.
� The Government has over the years, provided subsidies/concessions through the
fertilizer companies to farmers and the manufacturers have been compensated through
various schemes. Though the Government control helped in meeting the objective of
ensuring creation of capacities and ultimately achieving self-sufficiency in food grain
production, it did not encourage improving efficiencies in the sector. With the
burgeoning subsidy bill and the need to focus on fiscal prudence, Government polices in
recent times are aimed at encouraging efficiencies in the sector. Policy measures like
the new pricing scheme have made the operations of less efficient players unviable. The
Government polices today are oriented towards achieving the stated objective of total
deregulation in the sector. However, the uncertainty over exact policy parameters and
absence of a comprehensive long term policy has not augured well for the industry. For
instance, the financial year 2006-07 began with practically no clarity on the policy
parameters for both nitrogenous and phosphatic fertilizers.
� Another important issue confronting the sector is with respect to the feedstock. Natural
gas which is the main feedstock for production of nitrogenous fertilizers is available in
limited quantities and the industry competes with the power sector for its share. With
the Government policy favouring conversion to gas based units, the demand for gas is
only expected to go up in the future, which may in turn lead to further shortages.
Similarly, in the case of phosphates, on account of the limited availability of phosphoric
acid and rock phosphate in the country, domestic units are dependent to a large extent
on imports. In view of the limited availability of the main feedstock within the country,
fertiliser companies today are exploring the possibility of setting up joint ventures
abroad to tie up their feedstock requirements. Though a few joint venture agreements
have been signed with respect to supply of phosphoric acid, only a couple of joint
ventures have been established with respect to urea. Domestic players have also not
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been able to enter into long term gas supply agreements primarily due to differences
over pricing.
________________ ____ _________________________
Disclaimer:
This document prepared by our research analysts does not constitute an offer or solicitation
for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any
transaction. The information contained herein is from publicly available data or other
sources believed to be reliable but do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it
should not be relied on as such. Firstcall India Equity Advisors Pvt. Ltd. or any of it’s
affiliates shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any
person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. This document
is provide for assistance only and is not intended to be and must not alone be taken as the
basis for an investment decision.
21
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