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Undiscovered Resources Largest Undiscovered Field

MFS Prob. Oil (MMBO)

(0-1) F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean F95 F50 F5 Mean

Oil Fields 10 601 2,520 6,000 2,814 2,655 11,444 29,734 13,235 55 244 685 291 86 205 419 222

Gas Fields 60 5,809 14,241 24,286 14,550 213 551 1,055 582 753 1,633 3,696 1,842

Total 1.00 601 2,520 6,000 2,814 8,464 25,685 54,020 27,785 269 795 1,740 873

1.00

Tanezzuft-Illizi Structural/Stratigraphic, Assessment Unit 20560101Assessment Results Summary

[MMBO, million barrels of oil. BCFG, billion cubic feet of gas. MMBNGL, million barrels of natural gas liquids. MFS, minimum field size assessed (MMBO or BCFG). Prob., probability (including both geologic and accessibility probabilities) of at least one field equal to or greater than the MFS. Results shown are fully risked estimates. For gas fields, all liquids are included under the NGL (natural gas liquids) category. F95 represents a 95 percent chance of at least the amount tabulated. Other fractiles are defined similarly. Fractiles are additive under the assumption of perfect

positive correlation. Shading indicates not applicable]

Field Type Gas (BCFG) NGL (MMBNGL) (MMBO or BCFG)

20560101Tanezzuft-Illizi Structural/Stratigraphic

Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 8,000.00 MMBOEntire range is from 193.83 to 8,743.38 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 7.61

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 2,814.16Median 2,520.39Mode ---Standard Deviation 1,702.69Variance 2,899,159.93Skewness 0.60Kurtosis 2.52Coefficient of Variability 0.61Range Minimum 193.83Range Maximum 8,743.38Range Width 8,549.55Mean Standard Error 7.61

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.005

.011

.016

.021

0

265.2

530.5

795.7

1061

0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00

50,000 Trials 34 Outliers

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields

Page 1


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Oil in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 193.83

95% 600.7890% 795.7285% 991.1780% 1,184.8675% 1,384.7670% 1,589.9665% 1,806.6560% 2,033.0155% 2,264.8650% 2,520.3945% 2,783.2840% 3,063.5235% 3,344.9330% 3,662.6025% 3,997.8320% 4,376.3915% 4,807.0810% 5,319.94

5% 5,999.910% 8,743.38

End of Forecast

Page 2


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 40,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 672.59 to 53,036.18 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 38.41

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 13,235.36Median 11,443.92Mode ---Standard Deviation 8,588.01Variance 73,753,875.57Skewness 0.86Kurtosis 3.30Coefficient of Variability 0.65Range Minimum 672.59Range Maximum 53,036.18Range Width 52,363.59Mean Standard Error 38.41

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.006

.012

.018

.023

0

292.2

584.5

876.7

1169

0.00 10,000.00 20,000.00 30,000.00 40,000.00


Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields

Page 3


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 672.59

95% 2,654.6790% 3,585.6485% 4,473.5580% 5,388.2475% 6,312.2170% 7,247.7665% 8,220.1760% 9,234.9455% 10,319.7850% 11,443.9245% 12,626.6040% 13,967.9035% 15,362.7430% 16,851.1825% 18,575.3020% 20,486.2115% 22,794.2510% 25,592.96

5% 29,734.290% 53,036.18

End of Forecast

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Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 900.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 10.30 to 1,449.37 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.90

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 290.79Median 244.48Mode ---Standard Deviation 201.77Variance 40,711.96Skewness 1.13Kurtosis 4.29Coefficient of Variability 0.69Range Minimum 10.30Range Maximum 1,449.37Range Width 1,439.08Mean Standard Error 0.90

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.012

.018

.024

0

300.5

601

901.5

1202

0.00 225.00 450.00 675.00 900.00


Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields

Page 5


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Oil Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 10.30

95% 55.0990% 75.0285% 93.9380% 113.6275% 132.5770% 152.8265% 174.0660% 196.0455% 219.5850% 244.4845% 270.8040% 298.8835% 329.8130% 364.0525% 402.9220% 447.6815% 501.7010% 573.76

5% 685.130% 1,449.37

End of Forecast

Page 6


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 500.00 MMBOEntire range is from 22.66 to 499.92 MMBOAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 0.45

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 222.16Median 205.44Mode ---Standard Deviation 100.12Variance 10,023.22Skewness 0.64Kurtosis 2.79Coefficient of Variability 0.45Range Minimum 22.66Range Maximum 499.92Range Width 477.27Mean Standard Error 0.45

Frequency Chart

MMBO

.000

.006

.011

.017

.022

0

278.5

557

835.5

1114

0.00 125.00 250.00 375.00 500.00


Forecast: Largest Oil Field

Page 7


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Oil Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBO100% 22.66

95% 85.7390% 105.2385% 120.0480% 132.8975% 145.8870% 157.5565% 169.1560% 180.8655% 192.7250% 205.4445% 218.4340% 232.8835% 248.0930% 264.5425% 284.3320% 306.6915% 333.8810% 370.30

5% 419.460% 499.92

End of Forecast

Page 8


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 30,000.00 BCFGEntire range is from 1,326.80 to 38,104.40 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 25.03

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 14,549.99Median 14,241.45Mode ---Standard Deviation 5,597.70Variance 31,334,202.08Skewness 0.29Kurtosis 2.74Coefficient of Variability 0.38Range Minimum 1,326.80Range Maximum 38,104.40Range Width 36,777.59Mean Standard Error 25.03

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.005

.011

.016

.021

0

268.2

536.5

804.7

1073

0.00 7,500.00 15,000.00 22,500.00 30,000.00


Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields

Page 9


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Gas in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 1,326.80

95% 5,809.1790% 7,357.0285% 8,568.9380% 9,577.4775% 10,462.8070% 11,272.6565% 12,043.7660% 12,778.0755% 13,527.1450% 14,241.4545% 14,973.3440% 15,742.4935% 16,557.5630% 17,395.9925% 18,337.2420% 19,370.9815% 20,564.9010% 22,067.93

5% 24,285.900% 38,104.40

End of Forecast

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Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 1,500.00 MMBNGLEntire range is from 38.91 to 2,102.38 MMBNGLAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 1.15

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 581.74Median 550.58Mode ---Standard Deviation 257.53Variance 66,323.19Skewness 0.65Kurtosis 3.41Coefficient of Variability 0.44Range Minimum 38.91Range Maximum 2,102.38Range Width 2,063.47Mean Standard Error 1.15

Frequency Chart

MMBNGL

.000

.006

.012

.019

.025

0

312

624

936

1248

0.00 375.00 750.00 1,125.00 1,500.00


Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields

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Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: NGL in Gas Fields (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile MMBNGL100% 38.91

95% 213.4190% 271.6485% 317.5780% 356.4775% 392.6370% 425.8165% 457.3460% 487.4755% 518.9150% 550.5845% 583.8440% 619.7535% 657.6030% 696.1825% 740.7320% 791.4715% 850.1710% 928.11

5% 1,054.530% 2,102.38

End of Forecast

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Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Summary:Display range is from 0.00 to 4,500.00 BCFGEntire range is from 261.89 to 4,799.34 BCFGAfter 50,000 trials, the standard error of the mean is 3.99

Statistics: ValueTrials 50000Mean 1,842.41Median 1,633.28Mode ---Standard Deviation 893.24Variance 797,881.05Skewness 1.01Kurtosis 3.63Coefficient of Variability 0.48Range Minimum 261.89Range Maximum 4,799.34Range Width 4,537.45Mean Standard Error 3.99

Frequency Chart

BCFG

.000

.007

.013

.020

.027

0

336

672

1344

0.00 1,125.00 2,250.00 3,375.00 4,500.00


Forecast: Largest Gas Field

Page 13


Monte Carlo Results

Forecast: Largest Gas Field (cont'd)

Percentiles:

Percentile BCFG100% 261.89

95% 752.7990% 891.8985% 996.2280% 1,089.9975% 1,178.3070% 1,264.0965% 1,353.8360% 1,444.6955% 1,537.0150% 1,633.2845% 1,737.8440% 1,855.7735% 1,984.9030% 2,140.6925% 2,317.0820% 2,520.9115% 2,787.2810% 3,135.25

5% 3,695.580% 4,799.34

End of Forecast

Page 14


Monte Carlo Results

Assumptions

Assumption: Number of Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 10Likeliest 14Maximum 200

Selected range is from 10 to 200Mean value in simulation was 75

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 28.35 38.35Standard Deviation 45.46 45.46

Selected range is from 0.00 to 490.00 10.00 to 500.00Mean value in simulation was 27.87 37.87

10 58 105 153 200

Number of Oil Fields

Page 15


Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Sizes of Oil Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: GOR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 2,350.00Likeliest 4,700.00Maximum 7,050.00

Selected range is from 2,350.00 to 7,050.00Mean value in simulation was 4,704.83

0.51 111.05 221.60 332.14 442.69

Sizes of Oil Fields

2,350.00 3,525.00 4,700.00 5,875.00 7,050.00

GOR in Oil Fields

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Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Oil Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 11.00Likeliest 22.00Maximum 33.00

Selected range is from 11.00 to 33.00Mean value in simulation was 21.97

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 8Likeliest 44Maximum 84

Selected range is from 8 to 84Mean value in simulation was 45

11.00 16.50 22.00 27.50 33.00

LGR in Oil Fields

Page 17


Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: Number of Gas Fields (cont'd)

Assumption: Sizes of Gas Fields

Lognormal distribution with parameters: Shifted parametersMean 268.08 328.08Standard Deviation 437.76 437.76

Selected range is from 0.00 to 4,740.00 60.00 to 4,800.00Mean value in simulation was 262.71 322.71

8 27 46 65 84

Number of Gas Fields

4.58 1,072.90 2,141.21 3,209.53 4,277.85

Sizes of Gas Fields

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Monte Carlo Results

Assumption: LGR in Gas Fields

Triangular distribution with parameters:Minimum 20.00Likeliest 40.00Maximum 60.00

Selected range is from 20.00 to 60.00Mean value in simulation was 39.99

End of Assumptions

Simulation started on 12/3/98 at 9:52:06Simulation stopped on 12/3/98 at 10:55:13

20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00

LGR in Gas Fields

Page 19

tanezzuft-illizi structural/stratigraphic, assessment unit ...€¦ · tanezzuft-illizi...

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