take on terror

2010

[TAKE ON TERROR] The definitive source for fact‐based analysis of Terrorism Risk

© QCIC Ltd 2010

This document has been prepared by QCIC Ltd (“QCIC”) on a best endeavours basis. Any information provided by third parties and referred to herein has not been checked or verified by QCIC, unless otherwise expressly stated. No third party may rely upon this document without the prior and express written agreement of QCIC.

This document is copyright QCIC Ltd 2010 and is made available free of charge.

No third party may reproduce the information contained in this document without the prior written consent of the company.

[FOREWORD] Terrorism is one of the most prominent and high profile phenomena of our age. It is dynamic – the nature and extent of the risk changes relentlessly. Analysis of terrorism can be subject to emotions or subjective bias. At QCIC we base our analysis on facts and statistics. This ensures that we remain objective and our analysis and advice remains grounded.

[TAKE ON TERROR] aims to set out the current situation clearly and succinctly. It aims to do so in a cool and level‐headed manner. In producing the paper, QCIC has examined over 60,000 recorded terrorist incidents in the past five years using data supplied by the US Government and other trusted sources. We have based our analysis on the facts and on official and reliable statistics so that your organisation’s risk assessments can be evidence‐based.

It may come as something of a surprise to learn that in the year ending June 2009 there were over 10,000 terrorist incidents across the world. On average that is 27 terror attacks every day.

For global businesses this reality it is a significant concern – or it should be. In an age of increasing stakeholder expectations and legislative requirements, organisations cannot ignore it. As well as setting out the current position, the paper also sets out some of the ways in which your organisation can take on terrorism in your workplace; through improved resilience and planning which will ensure that some of terrorism’s sting is removed in the event of an incident.

I trust you find this paper a valuable reference and that it brings forward some useful ideas and commentary. .

”

Last year there were on average 27 terror

attacks every day

“

Matthew Horrox Director of Intelligence QCIC 1 January 2010

[TAKE ON TERROR] i

[CONTENTS] [GLOBAL TERRORISM] .................................................................................................................... 1

Targeted territories ....................................................................................................................... 2

Heat map ...................................................................................................................................... 3

Suicide terrorism ........................................................................................................................... 4

[SIX STATES TO WATCH] ................................................................................................................. 5

[IRAQ] ............................................................................................................................................... 6

Current context ............................................................................................................................. 6

Slow improvement ........................................................................................................................ 6

Turning the tide ............................................................................................................................ 6

Suicide terrorism ........................................................................................................................... 7

Elections 2010 ............................................................................................................................... 8

[PAKISTAN] ...................................................................................................................................... 9

Problem areas ............................................................................................................................... 9

Suicide terrorism ......................................................................................................................... 10

International dimensions .............................................................................................................. 11

Political instability ........................................................................................................................ 11

[AFGHANISTAN] ............................................................................................................................ 12

Suicide terrorism .......................................................................................................................... 13

America’s bleak options ............................................................................................................... 13

[ISRAEL] ......................................................................................................................................... 14


Stalled peace process .................................................................................................................. 15

[INDIA] ............................................................................................................................................ 16

Trouble spots ............................................................................................................................... 17

Suicide terrorism .......................................................................................................................... 17

Mumbai massacre ........................................................................................................................ 17

[RUSSIA] ......................................................................................................................................... 18

ii [TAKE ON TERROR]


[TAKING ON TERROR] ................................................................................................................... 20

Globalisation and security risk management ............................................................................... 21

Protecting physical assets ........................................................................................................... 21

Protecting people........................................................................................................................ 21

Protecting reputation .................................................................................................................. 22

Protecting your business ............................................................................................................. 22

The value of getting expert advice .............................................................................................. 22

[TERRORISM RANKINGS] .............................................................................................................. 23

[TAKE ON TERROR] iii

[DEFINITIONS] [TERRORISM] occurs when groups or individuals acting on political motivation deliberately or recklessly attack civilians / non‐combatants or their property and the attack does not fall into another category of violence such as crime or rioting.

[TAKE ON TERROR] iv

[GLOBAL TERRORISM] In the year ending June 2009 there were 10,946 recorded terrorist incidents, 15% fewer than in the same period in the previous year. The drop is almost all accounted for by a significant reduction in the number of attacks in Iraq. The underlying global terrorism level, excluding data from Iraq and Afghanistan remains relatively stable.

0

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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

All Other Countries Iraq Afghanistan

Figure 2a: Global Terrorism ‐ Number of Incidents (5 year trend)

During 2008/09, the numbers of people killed and seriously injured fell too: the number killed fell to 15,265 while the number seriously injured fell to 30,352 – a fall of 13 and 16 per cent respectively.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Killed Seriously Injured

Figure 2b: Global Terrorism ‐ Killed and Injured (5 year trend)

Conversely, the numbers of people held hostage rose to 9,813, an increase of 123% year‐on‐year. This sharp upswing is accounted for by a few major incidents, including an incident on 2 May 2009 in which Taliban forces took 2,000 civilians hostage for use as human shields in the village of Pir Baba

[TAKE ON TERROR] 1

in North‐West Frontier Province, Pakistan, and between 28 June and 1 July 2009 when HAMAS gunmen kidnapped 515 Fatah members in the Gaza Strip.

‐

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Hostages

Figure 2c: Global Terrorism ‐ Hostages (5 year trend)

Targeted territories QCIC has ranked each country by number of terrorist incidents suffered in 2008/09. The top ten are shown in the table below along with the number of incidents suffered in 2007/08.

Rank Territory Number of Incidents

Trend 2007/08 2008/09

1 Iraq 4,428 2,534 2 Pakistan 1,342 2,191 3 Afghanistan 1,103 1,403 4 Israel 1,173 802 5 India 818 692 6 Russia 330 483 7 Somalia 494 451 8 Thailand 771 448 9 Philippines 282 384 10 Colombia 366 303

Figure 2d: Global Terrorism ‐ Top 10 Countries by Rank

Iraq and Pakistan remain ranked at one and two respectively for another year, while Afghanistan and Israel have traded third and fourth place. Philippines, at eleven last year, saw a sharp increase in incidents and is now ranked ninth. Nepal, previously at seven with 637 incidents dropped to eleven with “only” 161 attacks following the establishment of a republic.

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Figu

re 2e: Globa

l Terroris

m Hea

t Map 200

8‐09

Hea

t map

The de

eper th

e sh

ade of

red, th

e more terrorist

incide

nts oc

curred in

2008

/09

[TAKE ON TERROR] 3

4 [TAKE ON TERROR]

Suicide terrorism The incidence of suicide terrorism has been generally on a decline since its peak in December 2006. Much of the reduction is accounted for by the improvements to the security situation in Iraq. Afghanistan and Pakistan are the two other principal territories afflicted and in each of these suicide terrorism is becoming increasingly prevalent. Sporadic attacks have occurred in other territories but with little pattern.

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJuneJuly

AugustSeptember

OctoberNovemberDecember


AugustSeptember



AugustSeptember



AugustSeptember



AugustSeptember



AugustSeptember

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cembe

20042005

20062007

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De r

Afghanistan

AlgeriaBangladesh

China

EgyptGaza Strip

IndiaIndonesia

Iran

IraqIsrael

JordanMoldova

Morocco

PakistanQatar

Russia

Saudi Arabia

Somalia

SpainSri Lanka

SyriaTurkey

United Kingdom

Uzbekistan

West B

ankYem

en

Figure 2f: Global Suicide Terrorism

2004‐09

[SIX STATES TO WATCH] Of the 10,946 recorded terrorism incidents in 2008/09, 8,105 occurred in the top six countries. That accounts for approximately three quarters of all incidents. Full analysis of all territories and groups, including data to the end 2009 is available from the QCIC Intelligence Unit upon request.

[TAKE ON TERROR] 5

[IRAQ] Current context The situation in Iraq today (in January 2010) is coloured by the upcoming elections in March. During the run up to the elections it is very likely that there will be a sustained and sharp upswing in violence. This may well impact the Obama Administration’s plan for troop withdrawal during 2010.

Slow improvement Taking a broader view, the situation in Iraq has been slowly improving from the peak in Q1 2007, although during the year there has been a slight upswing following the withdrawal of US troops from towns and cities.

At the height of violence there were over 7,400 attacks (in the year Q3 2006‐Q2 2007). The number of attacks has fallen steadily and now stands at a comparatively good (although disastrous by other standards) 2,534 incidents in 2008/09. In this period 3,765 people were killed, 10,827 were injured and 64 people were taken hostage. Of these, perhaps most notable statistic is the decline in hostage taking – down from its peak of 2,083 in Q3 2006‐Q2 2007.

0

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4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Number Terrorist Incidents People Killed People Injured Hostages Taken

Figure 3a: Iraq Terrorism Incidents (5 year trend)

Turning the tide Factors in the reduction of violence include the surge in US troops, enlisting the support of tribal elders to fight militias and the improving capability of the Iraqi national army. US troops have now withdrawn from towns and cities and are (according to current plans) due to end combat operations in September 2010 and withdraw all troops by the end of 2011. Iraqi security forces are now taking on an expanded role. That said al‐Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI) and other Iranian‐backed Shi’a groups remain

6 [TAKE ON TERROR]

[TAKE ON TERROR] 7

Arbil

ARBIL

DahūkDAHŪK

MosulNĪNAWÁ

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DIYĀLÁ

ŞALĀH AD DĪN

BAGHDĀDAr Ramadi

AL ĀNBAR

Al Fallujāh

KARBALĀ

Karbalā’ BĀBIL

Al Hillah

BaghdādWĀSIT

Al Kūt

AL QĀDISĪYAH

Ad Diwānīyah

AN NAJAF

An Najaf

DHĪ QĀR

An Nāsirīyah

MAYSĀN

Al ‘Amārah

Al Başrah

AL BAŞRAHAL MUTHANNÁ

As SamāwahSaudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

Iran

Iraq

Kuwait

MilesKilometres

300

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As Sulaymānīyah

Jordan

Umm Qasr

Samarra’

100

200100

active in many areas and it will be interesting to observe the extent to which the US can withdraw in 2010, particularly given elections in March which will likely trigger an upswing in violence.

Many areas in the south of the country are now considerably safer than they were, although by any other yardstick other than Iraq’s recent past, they would be considered unsafe areas.

Figure 3b: Iraq Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09 (with 5 year terrorism map inset top right)

Suicide terrorism Suicide terrorism remains a major issue in Iraq, although the frequency of attacks has fallen sharply since Q4 2008. In 2008/09 there were 143 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 1,193 and injuring 3,360. In the same period in 2007/08 there were 244 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 2,144 and injuring 5,093 – significantly worse on all counts.

Arbil

ARBIL

DahūkDAHŪK

MosulNĪNAWÁ

Kirkūk

KIRKŪK

Ba’qūbah

DIYĀLÁ

ŞALĀH AD DĪN

BAGHDĀDAr Ramadi

AL ĀNBAR

Al Fallujāh

KARBALĀ

Karbalā’ BĀBIL

Al Hillah

BaghdādWĀSIT

Al Kūt

AL QĀDISĪYAH

Ad Diwānīyah

AN NAJAF

An Najaf

DHĪ QĀR

An Nāsirīyah

MAYSĀN

Al ‘Amārah

Al Başrah

AL BAŞRAHAL MUTHANNÁ

As SamāwahSaudi Arabia

Syria

Turkey

Iran

Kuwait

MilesKilometres

300

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As Sulaymānīyah

Jordan

Umm Qasr

Samarra’

100

No terrorist events

At least 1 event

Average of 1 event per annum

Average of 1 event per quarter

Average of 1 event per month

Average of >2 events per month

Elections 2010 On 7 March 2010 Iraqis will go to the polls to elect the next parliament (Council of Representatives). The elections, which were due in January 2010, were delayed due to a political dispute about representation of minority Kurds and Sunnis.

In the run up to the elections there is likely to be a continued upswing in violence perpetrated by those who would like to derail the democratic process or manipulate its outcome. This will continue to polling day.

Prime Minister Nouri al‐Maliki and his Shi’a‐dominated government are running on a security platform, citing statistics showing falling violence.

Sunni extremists and nationalists, including members of the former Ba’athist regime operating from Syria, al‐Qa’ida in Iraq (AQI), and Iranian‐backed Shi’a groups all have reasons to wish to undermine the democratic process, destabilize Iraq and embarrass the United States.

In August, October and December 2009 spectacular coordinated car bomb attacks were staged in Baghdad killing hundreds. Worryingly for the authorities, the bombings have taken place in “secure areas” targeting among others government ministries. This raises doubts about the Iraqi security forces’ competence and loyalty and significantly damages al‐Maliki’s campaign. It also puts into some doubt the US plan to withdraw combat troops by September 2010 as it will be difficult for President Obama to claim that the security situation is stable enough to warrant a withdrawal.

2010 will be a pivotal year for Iraq – definitely one to watch.

Figure 3c: Iraq Suicide Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09 Figure 3c: Iraq Suicide Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09

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July August September October November December January February March April May June

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Incidents Dead Wounded

8 [TAKE ON TERROR]

[PAKISTAN] The deterioration of the security situation in Pakistan has been swift and in large parts of the country the government is not in full control. Islamist militants in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas are a serious problem.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

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3,000


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Figure 3d: Pakistan Terrorism Incidents (5 year trend)

In 2008/09 there were 2,191 incidents in which 2,649 people were killed, 5,250 injured and 4,060 people taken hostage or kidnapped.

Problem areas All along the border with Afghanistan, in North West Frontier Province, Federally Administered Tribal Areas and in many areas of Balochistan, there is large scale violence and insurrection. This is combined with a rising incidence of suicide terrorism in the country.

The Waziristan and Baujur districts of FATA are considered to be the most significant hubs for jihadis along the border, with Baujur reported to be the nexus for al‐Qa’ida–Taliban activities because of the many foreign militants reported to be in the area. The area is used as a base to avoid capture, produce propaganda, as a hub for communications with cells around the world and as a training area for new recruits. However, sustained pressure on al‐Qa’ida in the FATA has led to the deaths of several key personnel in the past year weakening the organisation, and the ongoing conflict between the military and the militants has seen large numbers of civilian casualties.

North West Frontier Province suffered the most recorded terrorist incidents in 2008/09 ‐ 1,213‐ accounting for over half the incidents in Pakistan. Particular problem areas include Swat, Dera Ismail Khan, Kohat, Peshawar, Bannu, Hangu, and Malakand.

[TAKE ON TERROR] 9

10 [TAKE ON TERROR]

Figure 3e: Pakistan Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09 (with breakout map of FATA top right)

Suicide terrorism Suicide terrorism is a major issue in Pakistan and has been increasing since 2007.

Figure 3f: Pakistan Suicide Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09

In 2008/09 there were 68 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 956 and injuring 2,653. In the same period last year there were 56 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 860 and injuring 1,994.

Hyderabad

Karachi

PUNJAB

SINDH

Tajikistan

China

India

Quetta

BALOCHISTAN

Rawalpindi

Peshawar

NORTHERNAREAS

AZADKASHMIR

Afghanistan

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FEDERALLYADMINISTEREDTRIBAL AREAS

NORTH‐WESTFRONTIERPROVINCE

Lahore

Islamabad

ARABIAN SEAMiles

Kilometres

100 200 300

100 200 300

Uzbek‐istan

Kābul

NORTH‐WESTFRONTIERPROVINCE

BALOCHISTAN

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Baujur

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Khyber

Orakzai

0

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No terrorist events

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International dimensions Terrorism and terrorist groups operating in Pakistan have a significant impact on Pakistan’s foreign relations. For instance:

In recent months relations with India have been under strain as India accused Pakistan of failing to cooperate with them in relation to the major attack in Mumbai which took place in November 2008 and was perpetrated by Pakistani nationals.

A number of anti‐Indian groups operate in Kashmir and/or with suspected assistance from the Pakistani military including: Lashkar‐e‐Taiba (LeT), the Jaish‐e‐Muhammad (JeM), and the Harakat ul‐Mujahadeen (HuM).

Pakistan accuses India of supporting secessionist movements in Balochistan. Security forces in Southern Afghanistan complain that the Taliban insurgency in Helmand,

Kandahar and Zabul is being supported from Balochistan. It is thought that Mullah Omar (if still alive) is living in Pakistan near Quetta. The US government is applying pressure on the Pakistanis to crack down hard on Taliban forces within their territory.

Many analysts believe that Osama Bin Laden and his al‐Qa’ida affiliates are based in the FATA. It is also thought that other international groups operate there, including: the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Islamic Jihad, the Libyan Islamic Fighters Group and the Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement.

It is not clear whether the perpetrators of the attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team in March 2009 were domestic Pakistani terrorists, possibly from Laskar‐e‐Taiba (LeT), or Sri Lankans from the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE).

Aside from the international groups operating from within Pakistan, the country also has home‐grown insurgencies to deal with. The Pakistani Taliban or Tehrik‐i‐Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is a response to military incursions into the FATA, while the Balochistan Liberation Army is a secessionist movement.

Political instability Security will continue to be the most pressing issue facing President Zardari’s government. In 2009 the Pakistani military launched offensives against the Pakistani Taliban to regain territory in Swat (North West Frontier Province) which had slipped from government control. The government has also tackled the TTP’s stronghold in South Waziristan. The military offensives are the latest in a long line of attempts to curb militants in the north west of the country.

Note that the Pakistani state tends to target only those groups which present it with an immediate domestic threat. To that end many anti‐Indian or international groups are left alone – so long as they do not develop a domestic agenda. Why the selective approach? It is a function of scarce resources and the lack of inter‐agency cooperation. There is only so much the state can take on at one time.

Pakistan remains on a knife‐edge.

[TAKE ON TERROR] 11

[AFGHANISTAN] The situation in Afghanistan has worsened in the twelve months to June 2009 in the build up to elections that were held in Q3 2009. The number of attacks is up 27%. In 2008/09, 2,321 people were reported killed as a result of terrorist attacks, 3,556 were injured and 649 were taken hostage.

0

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1,200

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Figure 3g: Afghanistan Terrorism Incidents (5 year trend)

Kandahar, Khowst, Ghazni, and Helmand all endured in excess of 100 attacks in 2008/09 – with 153, 139,136 and 109 incidents respectively.

India

PROVINCESTajikistan

China

Iran

AfghanistanUzbek‐istan

FARĀH

NĪMRŪZ

HERĀT

BĀDGHĪS

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ĀR

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MilesKilometres

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ORŪZGĀN

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No terrorist events

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Figure 3h: Afghanistan Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09

12 [TAKE ON TERROR]

Suicide terrorism Suicide terrorism is a major issue in Afghanistan and has been increasing since 2005. In 2008/09 there were 107 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 491 and injuring 1,233. In the same period in 2007/08 there were 102 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 653 and injuring 1,022 – broadly similar.

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2008 2009


Figure 3i Afghanistan Suicide Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09

America’s bleak options President Obama announced a new troop surge in Afghanistan in December 2009. The surge will see America’s deployment peaking at over 100,000 troops in July 2010 before being reduced in the second half of 2011.

The US is potentially caught in Afghanistan. There are few signs that efforts to train the Afghan National Army or police, or to improve governance is bearing fruit ‐ yet. And there is concern that by putting a target date for commencement of withdrawal the US is giving encouragement to the Taliban and other forces which threaten the Kabul administration – which since the substantially flawed elections in 2009 has had its legitimacy demonstrably undermined. Many ordinary people will be looking to see which way the wind is blowing so that when America leaves they are not seen to have been supporting the wrong side.

It will be difficult for America to leave Afghanistan on the current projected timeline. Unless there is a breakthrough to reduce the upward violent trend, America will be faced with two options in 2011: withdraw as planned and lose face, while simultaneously leaving America at increased risk of another 9/11; or stay and risk another Vietnam or Korea. Tellingly President Hamid Karzai, following his election win in November 2009, declared that he hoped that Afghan forces would be in a position to start taking over from NATO troops within three years, and being self‐sufficient across the country by 2015 allowing foreign troops to begin to withdraw – four years later than presently envisaged.

The effectiveness of the troop surge and the success of similar endeavours across the border in Pakistan will be all important.

[TAKE ON TERROR] 13

[ISRAEL] The situation in Israel has improved significantlyin 2008/09 with attacks down from 1,173 to 802. 20 people were killed during the year with 484 injured and no hostages taken.

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Figure 3j: Israel Terrorism Incidents (5 year trend)

While the current situation is quiet ‐ the last major spike in terrorist activity took place in 2001, 2002 and 2003 when 204, 451 and 210 people were killed in each year respectively ‐ history tells us that there are peaks and troughs in the security situation. Until fundamental questions are resolved in the region, the situation is likely to remain volatile with potential for upswings in violence.

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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Figure 3k: Israel Terrorism ‐ Fatalities (by month since 2000) *

* Data from Wm. Robert Johnston

14 [TAKE ON TERROR]

Figure 3l: Israel Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09

MEDITERRANEANSEA

Israel

EgyptJordan

Syria

Saudi Arabia

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Gaza

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Jerusalem

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Suicide terrorism Suicide terrorism has not been a major issue in Israel in 2008/09. There have been no recorded successful terrorist attacks. In the same period in 2007/08 there were 2 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 1 and injuring 40. As recently as 2005/06 there were 6 incidents, killing 27 and injuring 319. While the recent incidence has been low, the threat remains.

Stalled peace process The Israeli‐Palestinian peace process has been stalling for a number of years. The Palestinians are divided and increasingly view the two state solution as unattractive for a number of rational reasons (lack of resources, favourable demographic trends, strong external support and the availability of cheap weapons). The Israelis are distracted by Iranian pursuit of nuclear weapons and so too the US is distracted by other regional concerns. The two sides cannot agree on settlements, Jerusalem or Palestinian refugees. Hopes are now turning to improving relations between Israel and Syria as a means to unblock the wider process, but progress will not be achieved without considerable input from the United States. Issues on the table relate to the status of the Golan Heights in the far north east and water access rights. The question is, will the Obama administration take this on in 2010 with so much else on the agenda?

[TAKE ON TERROR] 15

[INDIA] The number of attacks in India is down slightly: during 2008/09 there were 692 attacks, compared to 818 in 2007/08. Nonetheless, the attacks killed 998 and injured 2,030. 921 hostages were taken.

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2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


Figure 3m: India Terrorism Incidents (5 year trend)

Perhaps the most infamous attack in India during 2008/09 was the much publicised attack in Mumbai in Q4 2008 which is detailed in the box overleaf.

State

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Pakistan

India

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STATE OR UNION TERRITORY

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Figure 3n: India Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09

16 [TAKE ON TERROR]

Trouble spots Much of the violence throughout the country, with the exception of Jammu and Kashmir, is perpetrated by various extreme left / Maoist groups. Violence has become less dispersed throughout the country but remains a credible threat in most areas. Islamist incidents such as the Mumbai attack are not common across the country, they are mainly confined to Jammu and Kashmir, but one of the lessons from Mumbai is that “spectaculars” can happen anywhere. The numbers killed in the far north east, particularly in Manipur and Assam, are very high.

Suicide terrorism Suicide terrorism has a not been a major issue for India lately. There were no recorded successful suicide terrorist attacks in 2008/09 (the Mumbai attacks are not considered to be suicide attacks because the perpetrators did not intend to die). The most recent suicide attacks took place in 2005 (two incidents) one in 2004. The combined death toll of these attacks was 19, and 70 people were injured.

Mumbai massacre The most notable incident in 2008/09 was the attack in Mumbai which left 145 civilians, 17 police officers and 2 military personnel dead and a further 280 civilians, 3 police, 25 military personnel wounded through a series of coordinated attacks.

While the attack is believed to have been perpetrated by Lashkar‐e‐Taiba (LeT) – a Pakistan‐based militant group – it is not certain that this is the case as Mujahadeen claimed responsibility. The attack was the worst in the city since the 1993 bombings which left 250

dead and 700 injured in a series of 13 bomb explosions. 10 young men carried out the attacks. With the exception of Mohammed Ajmal Kasab – allegedly pictured left – all were killed. The trial of Kasab continues as at December 2009.

• On 23 November the 10 attackers hijacked a fishing trawler off Mumbai, killing 5 crew

• Three days later, on 26 November from about 21:20 local time, the men split up and commenced a series of attacks

• Two men targeted a main railway terminus with AK‐47 rifles killing freely

• A popular restaurant, the Leopold Cafe, was attacked by gunmen

• Two IEDs on timers were detonated in two taxis in the city killing several

• Two of the city’s most popular hotels, the Trident Oberoi and Taj Mahal were attacked. Several grenade explosions were reported (6 at the Taj and 1 at the Oberoi), multiple shootings occurred. Civilians and elected representatives were caught up in the assaults. The hotels were finally cleared by Indian special forces on 29 November

• Nariman House, a Jewish cultural centre was attacked by gunmen who took multiple hostages. The attack ended when special forces stormed the complex on 29 November

[TAKE ON TERROR] 17

18 [TAKE ON TERROR]

[RUSSIA] The number of terrorist attacks in Russia increased to 483 from 330 year on year. In 2008/09, 255 people were killed, 530 were injured and 21 taken hostage. Incidents occurred predominantly in the Caucasian Republics of Chechnya, Dagestan and Ingushetia spilling over into neighbouring areas.

Figure 3o: Russia Terrorism Incidents (5 year trend)

Suicide terrorism Suicide terrorism remains an ongoing issue in Russia but this tactic is less prevalent than in some other territories ‐ there have been 17 incidents since 2004. Most notable among these was the attack at Beslan in September 2004 which resulted in the deaths of 186 children, 124 civilians, 11 teachers, 10 soldiers and 2 other government officials (see the spike in Figure 3o ‐ above ‐ in Q3 2004). In 2008/09 there have been 5 suicide terrorism incidents, killing 19 and injuring 65.

Figure 3p Russia Suicide Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


2008 2009


0100200300400500600700800900

1,000


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009


No terrorist eventsAt least 1 eventAverage of 1 event per annumAverage of 1 event per quarterAverage of 1 event per monthAverage of >2 events per month

Key

Data Main map is based on July 2008 to June 2009 data, insert map on January 2004 to June 2009. QCIC’s analysis is based on open source data made available by US government.

1

Russia

KazakhstanMongolia

China

Japan

ARCTIC OCEAN

RepublicsAdygeya

1

ALTAY

2

2 Bashkortostan

6 3

3 Chechenskaya4 Chuvashskaya

4

5 Dagestan

5

6 Ingushetiya7 Kabardino‐Balkarskaya

7

8

8 Kalmykiya9 Karachayevo‐Cherkesskaya10 Khakasiya11 Mariy El12 Morodoviya13 North Ossetia‐Alania14 Tartarstan

9

10

KOMI

1112

SAKHA

13

14

TYVA

15 Udmurt

15 KHAB

AROVSKIY KR

AI

16

Administrative TerritoriesKrasnodarskiy kray

16

KRASNOYARSKIY KR

AI

PERM

SKIY

KRAI

PRIM

ORSKIY

KRAI

17 Stavrolpol’skiy kray

17

Administrative RegionsAstrakhanskaya oblast’

Belgorodskaya oblast’

AMURSKAYAOBLAST

ARKHANGEL’SKAYAOBLAST

18

19

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

20

Bryanskaya oblast’

Chelabinskaya oblast’

Ivanovskaya oblast’

Kaliningradskaya oblast’

Kaluzhskaya oblast’

Kemerovskaya oblast’

Kirovskaya oblast’

Kostromskaya oblast’

21

ZABA

YKAL’SKIY

KRAIIRKUTSKAYA

OBLAST

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

Nizhegorodskaya oblast’Novgorodskaya oblast’

Novosibirskaya oblast’

Omskaya oblast’

Orenburgskaya oblast’

Orlovskaya oblast’

Penzenskaya oblast’

30

39

MAG

ADAN

SKAYA

OBLAST

32

33

34

35

3637

38

41

40

41

4243

Pskovskaya oblast’

Rostovskaya oblast’Ryazanskaya oblast’Sakhalinskaya oblast’

40

42

43

44 Samarskaya oblast’45 Saratovskaya oblast’

Smolenskskaya oblast’

Sverdlovskaya oblast’

46

47

48

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

Tambovskaya oblast’

Tul’skaya oblast’Tverskaya oblast’

Ul’yanovskaya oblast’

Vladimirskaya oblast’

Volgogradskaya oblast’

Volgodskaya oblast’

Voronezhskaya oblast’56

57

Yaroslavskaya oblast’

Yevreyskaya avtonomnayaoblast’

4445

46

47

48

TOMSKAYAOBLAST

49

50

51

52

53

54

55

Autonomous RegionsMoskva

Autonomous Cities

Sankt‐Peterburg

28 Kurganskaya oblast’29 Kurskaya oblast’

Leningradskaya oblast’

Lipetskaya oblast’

30

31

32 Moscovskaya oblast’

Moscow56

59

Autonomous Districts60

Khanty‐Mansiyskiy a.o.Nenetskiy a.o.

Ust’‐Ordynskiy Buryatskiy a.o.Yamalo‐Nenetskiy a.o.

58

58

St. Petersburg

59

60

[61]

[62]

[63]

[64]

ALTAI KRAI

Miles

Kilometres1,000

500

57

31

61

62

63

64

The 5 Year Picture

Chukotskiy a.o.

Figure 3q: Russia Terrorism Incidents 2008‐09 (with 5 year trend inset bottom right)

[TAKE ON TERROR] 19

[TAKING ON TERROR]

20 [TAKE ON TERROR]

Globalisation and security risk management The world is becoming smaller. We are all travelling more and business is now globalised. These are established trends and will continue.

The Anglo‐Saxon world is becoming increasingly aware of risk. Regulation and legislation, such as the recent Corporate Manslaughter Act (2008) in the United Kingdom, is increasingly challenging organisations to have joined up and effective security risk management functions. That is not to say that security risk should be a business inhibiter – far from it – but it must underpin the organisation’s activities and assure the Board and shareholders that all that can reasonably be done to protect employees’ wellbeing and the organisation’s reputation is being done.

Yet, as consultants, we at QCIC continue to work with security teams which are organisationally fragmented or buried within an organisation unable to fully influence the organisation as they might like.

In the 21st Century business world, the fragmented security function of the 20th Century is outmoded and can potentially be dangerous.

Protecting physical assets Buildings and plant are frequently targeted by terrorists. Some locations are at greater risk than others, but there are numerous measures that can be put in place, either at the design stage of a new build or retrospectively in the case of extant building stock, that can mitigate the effects of a terror attack and help prevent one occurring in the first place.

Undertaking a Threat and Vulnerability Review is the first step. Is the building or asset at risk? To what extent is the building or plant vulnerable given the present level of threat and the modus operandii of terrorists who might pose a threat in the area? Working with security and terrorism risk experts is important to ensure that the risk assessment is thorough and current.

If measures are recommended to meet the latest safety standards or to provide the required level of assurance, working with security engineers such as QCIC is the best way to proceed initially. A security engineer can advise you on the different products available on the market and can ensure that whatever the situation, an appropriate scheme is developed balancing safety and other organisational imperatives such as cost.

Protecting people For many organisations their people are their most important assets. Employee wellbeing and health and safety is afforded increasing value and this should spill over into the security arena – although it often does not.

When employees are working at their office they should feel safe. Having a well drilled crisis management plan which includes how to deal with a terrorist incident (e.g. through ‘invacuation’) is vital. Knowing that you have in place the appropriate building security design features such as refuge areas, particularly in glass‐clad buildings is important. Flying glass accounts for the majority of injuries in a city bomb blast.

[TAKE ON TERROR] 21

Having security grab bags in the office can also make a significant difference and are being strongly recommended by Counter Terrorism professionals in the United Kingdom. You would not fail to equip an office with fire extinguishers, nor would you travel on an aircraft or boat that was not fitted with safety features; so why would you not equip an office with security bags? They are cheap and cost effective.

With business travel becoming increasingly normal, it is imperative that your employees keep on top of the risks involved in travelling to unfamiliar locations – even if they have travelled there in the past as things can change quite suddenly. Often we find that off‐the‐shelf travel security solutions are not effective as people tend not to read security briefings prior to travel and go outside the formal travel booking process to take advantage of deals from low cost carriers or to gain points. It is also vital that an organisation knows where its people are at any given time. Off the shelf travel tracking solutions are only semi‐effective. There are other products available on the market that can offer better assurance.

Protecting reputation One of the tough lessons learnt in the aftermath of 9/11 was that some companies had very well developed security risk management and others did not. Those that managed the disaster well emerged with an enhanced reputation, while others suffered immensely.

The best time to plan for a crisis is well in advance of it occurring. Given that we cannot see into the future, it is prudent to take action as soon as is practicable. Do not assume that in the event of an incident the police will take charge – your organisation will be but one of hundreds affected and the police will have more pressing matters to attend to than your internal business crisis.

Protecting your business Business continuity is not new. But many companies have ill‐thought through plans. It must be remembered that if there is a disaster close by, you may not be able to access your premises for some time. And it is equally important to remember that you will not be the only organisation affected. That business continuity centre you are subscribing to – the one that can only accommodate 3 or 4 companies simultaneously on a first come first served basis – may not provide much of a safety net in the event of an incident in the heart of the City of London or Manhattan.

The value of getting expert advice No one particularly likes using external consultants – particularly if you have an internal team. But it is worth remembering that external experts can bring fresh eyes to your organisational situation. They can independently review your organisational structures in light of your risk exposure, your culture and strategic objectives. They can work with you to identify gaps in your current arrangements, highlight opportunities to use latest best practice and help to develop practical and manageable plans to move your organisation to a more resilient future. If necessary, consultants can help develop a business case to achieve organisational support and funding.

22 [TAKE ON TERROR]

[TERRORISM RANKINGS] The full ranking is shown in the table below. Raw data is as supplied by the US Government and has been analysed by QCIC. Data relates to the year from 1 July 2008 to 30 June 2009 (the most recent period for which comprehensive data is available) and the preceding 12 months for comparison.


Trend 2007/08 2008/09

1 Iraq 4,428 2,534

2 Pakistan 1,342 2,191

3 Afghanistan 1,103 1,403

4 Israel 1,173 802

5 India 818 692

6 Russia 330 483

7 Somalia 494 451

8 Thailand 771 448

9 Philippines 282 384

10 Colombia 366 303

11 Nepal 637 161

12 Congo, Democratic Republic 52 146

13 Greece 51 118

14 Algeria 72 67

15= Sri Lanka 95 64

15= West Bank 57 64

17 Sudan 46 58

18 Nigeria 68 53

19 Turkey 37 52

20 Gaza 142 47

21 Indonesia 14 44

22 Georgia 15 35

23= Spain 74 30

[TAKE ON TERROR] 23

24 [TAKE ON TERROR]


Trend 2007/08 2008/09

23= Lebanon 43 30

25 Yemen 21 28

26 Iran 7 18

27 United Kingdom 16 15

28= France 50 14

28= Burundi 18 14

28= Bangladesh 17 14

31= Myanmar (Burma) 37 12

31= China 3 12

33 Chile 14 10

34 Ethiopia 5 9

35 Egypt ‐ 8

36 Venezuela 8 7

37= Kosovo 16 6

37= Peru 5 6

39= Serbia 15 5

39= Uganda 8 5

39= Bosnia & Herzegovina 3 5

39= Central African Republic 3 5

39= United States 3 5

44= Kenya 37 4

44= Niger 19 4

44= Mali 8 4

44= Rwanda 2 4

44= Zimbabwe 1 4

44= Syria 1 4

44= Germany 1 4

44= Azerbaijan ‐ 4

52= Bolivia 7 3

52= Ecuador 4 3

52= Macedonia 3 3

52= Mauritania 3 3

52= Tajikistan 3 3

[TAKE ON TERROR] 25


Trend 2007/08 2008/09

52= Swaziland ‐ 3

58= Mexico 11 2

58= Senegal 6 2

58= Cyprus 2 2

58= Ukraine 1 2

58= Angola 1 2

58= Eritrea 1 2

58= Kyrgyzstan 1 2

58= Paraguay 1 2

58= Uzbekistan ‐ 2

67= Malaysia 4 1

67= Cameroon 2 1

67= Croatia 1 1

67= Montenegro 1 1

67= Albania ‐ 1

67= Saudi Arabia ‐ 1

67= Japan ‐ 1

67= Jordan ‐ 1

67= Belarus ‐ 1

67= El Salvador ‐ 1

67= Equatorial Guinea ‐ 1

67= Finland ‐ 1

67= Gambia, The ‐ 1

67= Honduras ‐ 1

67= Ireland ‐ 1

67= Latvia ‐ 1

67= Libya ‐ 1

67= Panama ‐ 1

67= Slovenia ‐ 1

67= Sweden ‐ 1

87= Guatemala 10 ‐

87= Bhutan 9 ‐

87= Chad 7 ‐

26 [TAKE ON TERROR]


Trend 2007/08 2008/09

87= Italy 2 ‐

87= Ghana 2 ‐

87= Morocco 2 ‐

87= South Africa 2 ‐

87= Liberia 2 ‐

87= Timor‐Leste 2 ‐

87= Cambodia 2 ‐

87= Jamaica 2 ‐

87= Maldives 2 ‐

87= Cote d'Ivoire 1 ‐

87= Switzerland 1 ‐

87= Armenia 1 ‐

87= Brazil 1 ‐

87= Hungary 1 ‐

87= Sierra Leone 1 ‐

87= Tanzania 1 ‐

87= Austria 1 ‐

87= Bahrain 1 ‐

87= Bulgaria 1 ‐

87= Burkina Faso 1 ‐

87= Kazakhstan 1 ‐

87= Namibia 1 ‐

87= Trinidad and Tobago 1 ‐

87= Tunisia 1 ‐

87= Madagascar ‐ ‐

87= Canada ‐ ‐

87= Lesotho ‐ ‐

87= Moldova ‐ ‐

87= New Zealand ‐ ‐

87= Benin ‐ ‐

87= Western Sahara ‐ ‐

87= Andorra ‐ ‐

87= Antigua and Barbuda ‐ ‐

[TAKE ON TERROR] 27


Trend 2007/08 2008/09

87= Argentina ‐ ‐

87= Australia ‐ ‐

87= Bahamas, The ‐ ‐

87= Barbados ‐ ‐

87= Belgium ‐ ‐

87= Belize ‐ ‐

87= Bermuda ‐ ‐

87= Botswana ‐ ‐

87= Brunei ‐ ‐

87= Cape Verde ‐ ‐

87= Cayman Islands ‐ ‐

87= Comoros ‐ ‐

87= Congo (Brazaville) ‐ ‐

87= Costa Rica ‐ ‐

87= Cuba ‐ ‐

87= Czech Republic ‐ ‐

87= Denmark ‐ ‐

87= Djibouti ‐ ‐

87= Dominica ‐ ‐

87= Dominican Republic ‐ ‐

87= Estonia ‐ ‐

87= Fiji ‐ ‐

87= Gabon ‐ ‐

87= Grenada ‐ ‐

87= Guinea ‐ ‐

87= Guinea‐Bissau ‐ ‐

87= Guyana ‐ ‐

87= Haiti ‐ ‐

87= Holy See ‐ ‐

87= Iceland ‐ ‐

87= Kiribati ‐ ‐

87= North Korea ‐ ‐

87= South Korea ‐ ‐

28 [TAKE ON TERROR]


Trend 2007/08 2008/09

87= Kuwait ‐ ‐

87= Laos ‐ ‐

87= Liechtenstein ‐ ‐

87= Lithuania ‐ ‐

87= Luxembourg ‐ ‐

87= Macao ‐ ‐

87= Malawi ‐ ‐

87= Malta ‐ ‐

87= Marshall Islands ‐ ‐

87= Mauritius ‐ ‐

87= Micronesia ‐ ‐

87= Monaco ‐ ‐

87= Mongolia ‐ ‐

87= Mozambique ‐ ‐

87= Nauru ‐ ‐

87= Netherlands ‐ ‐

87= Netherlands Antilles ‐ ‐

87= Nicaragua ‐ ‐

87= Norway ‐ ‐

87= Oman ‐ ‐

87= Palau ‐ ‐

87= Papua New Guinea ‐ ‐

87= Poland ‐ ‐

87= Portugal ‐ ‐

87= Qatar ‐ ‐

87= Romania ‐ ‐

87= Saint Kitts and Nevis ‐ ‐

87= Saint Lucia ‐ ‐

87= Saint Vincent and the Grenadines ‐ ‐

87= Samoa ‐ ‐

87= San Marino ‐ ‐

87= São Tomé and Principe ‐ ‐

87= Seychelles ‐ ‐

[TAKE ON TERROR] 29


Trend 2007/08 2008/09

87= Singapore ‐ ‐

87= Slovakia ‐ ‐

87= Solomon Islands ‐ ‐

87= Suriname ‐ ‐

87= Taiwan ‐ ‐

87= Togo ‐ ‐

87= Tonga ‐ ‐

87= Turkmenistan ‐ ‐

87= Tuvalu ‐ ‐

87= United Arab Emirates ‐ ‐

87= Uruguay ‐ ‐

87= Vanuatu ‐ ‐

87= Viet Nam ‐ ‐

87= Zambia ‐ ‐

[TAKE ON TERROR]

[ABOUT QCIC] QCIC is a leading and innovative security and political risk advisory firm. Headquartered in London, the company offers a variety of integrated security and risk management solutions, including: security engineering, travel risk, crisis management and alert systems, business intelligence and political risk services and solutions. Our client base is diverse and includes FTSE100 and Fortune 500 organisations and high net worth individuals who value quality of service and innovative approaches that a smaller firm can offer.

QCIC Group 23 Berkeley Square Mayfair London W1J 6HE Tel: + 44 (0)* 207 060 7242 Fax: + 44 (0)* 207 060 7243 Visit: www.qcic‐group.com Email: enquiries@qcic‐group.com * Please omit (0) if dialling from outside UK.

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