taiccat 2015期末簡報
TRANSCRIPT
Taiwan Integrated Research Programme on Climate Change Adaptation Technology,
TaiCCAT
Dec. 31, 2015
TaiCCAT
. . (2015)
.
:
2
3
0
1
2011-2015
/ ( )
VAVulnerability assessment
/ ( )
EAEnvironmental
system analysis
/ ( )
AGAdaptation governance
ICinterdisciplinary
coordination
D1:
D2:
D3:
D4:
D5:D6:
S2:
S3:
S5:
S1:
S4:
R1:
R2:
R3:R4:
R5:R6:
(2015)
http://www.taiccat.net/
.
.
.
.
.
.
. .
. .
.
.
. TaiCCAT
.
. . 2015 . 2014 . 2013 . 2012
https://www.facebook.com/taiccat/Facebook
http://140.121.161.45/envDB/index.htmTaiCCAT
http://sdl.ae.ntu.edu.tw/TaiCATS/
• • • •
• • •
• • • • • •
• • • • • • • • ( )
• • • • • • • • • ( )
•
•
• �
•
• �
• �
�
Technology Service
Online Offline offline
http://sdl.ae.ntu.edu.tw/TaiCATS/
D-I-K-W
(Taiwan Climate Adaptation Technology Service, TaiCATS)
http://sdl.ae.ntu.edu.tw/TaiCATS/
. . :
. TAO (SCI) special issue: Climate Change Adaptation – Scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-making
. ( : )
6.1.2.31.2.3.4.54.5.6
- - -
- -
- - -
- - - -
- -
- -
:
:
104
104
103 TaiCCAT
104TaiCCAT
104 TaiCCAT
105 TaiCCAT
103106
TAO (SCI) special issue: climate change adaptation - scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-making
SCI TAO (the journal of Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences)
Climate Change Adaptation – Scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-makingTaiCCATTaiCCAT
20 - Important date:
• May 01, 2015. • Oct. 31, 2015. • Mar. 31, 2016. • Sept. 01, 2016. TAO
Sept. 24, 25, 2015. @ NCUhttp://taiccat.wix.com/ccat2015http://www.taiccat.net/#!events/c1ulz
Keynote speech I : Study for climate change impact analysis in water related disasters
Mr. Yoichi Iwami, ICHARM, Japan
Keynote speech II : Climate change and international trade
Prof. Dabo Guan, University of East Anglia, UK
Keynote speech II : Extreme climate in urban areas: perspectives of participatory early warning and real time monitoring for flooding
Dr. Peter van der Keur, GEUS, Denmark
Presentation:
The long-term sea surface temperature change in vicinity of Taiwan and its possible impact on the biology resources
( )
Presentation:
The effect of urban development on urban heat island and regional precipitation pattern from ground based and satellite data
( )
Presentation:
Analyzing the relationship between urban development, rainfall conditions and flood occurrence
()
Presentation:
Landslide trend under extreme climate ( )Presentation:
Impact analysis of coastal disasters under climate change
( )
Presentation:
Impact on wetland biodiversity from potential sea-level rise in Tainan City
( )
Conclusion
The feasibility on the environmental potential index and value-added analysis using multidisciplinary approach in Tainan city
TaiCCATPresentation:
The Decision Supportive Tool for Climate Change Adaptation
( )
Presentation:-
Assessment of Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategy under Climate Change Impact
(
)
Presentation:
Effects of Rainfall and Flooding Events on Waterborne Diseases
( )
Presentation:
The cross-sectoral vulnerability assessment of food security under climate change
( )
Presentation:
A Framework for Assessing Risk of Climate Change on Coastal Ecosystems in Taiwan
( )
Presentation:
Assessing Water Resources Vulnerability and Resilience of Southern Taiwan in Changing Climate
( )
Conclusion
Presentation: -
Engaging stakeholders to assessing and enhancing adaptation capacity- The case of Tainan County
()
Presentation: -
Articulating a legal framework for climate change adaptation -- A Taiwan's perspective
( )
Presentation:
The application of land use simulation model on the climate change adaptation strategies
( )
( )
Presentation:
The establishment and application of community adaptation indices corresponding to flood and high temperature of climate change
( )
Presentation::
Unpacking the Co-production of Knowledge in Adaptation to Climate Change: The Role of Local Knowledge in a Coastal City – Tainan, Taiwan
( )
Presentation:
Flood resilient cities: using geodesign to support decision-making on climate change adaptation
()
Conclusion
TaiCCATOverview:
– TaiCCAT Developing climate change adaptation technology – lessons learned from the TaiCCAT project
( )
Presentation: –
The assessment of government policies on climate change adaptation in Taiwan – a pilot study of the Taiwan Climate Change Adaptation Performance Index (TCCAPI)Presentation:2011 2015 –
Research pattern of climate adaptation from 2011 to 2015 - a co-word based analysis
()
Closing ceremony:,
. .
. :
6.1.2.3
HGAM� �L��D1� �L��D2� �L��D3� �L��D4� �L��D5� �L��D6�
�L��D11/�
1/%�N1/O�
=�1.�N73K�O�
� 5�I,�N&",�O�
,��$�N�?8�O�
8�;!�N@�1�O�
�L��D2�+�
1+�<�N@�1�O�
�+-(�N�+O�
�I,�NE'/ �O�
�#/06�N ���O�
� �
�L��D3J��
� E�9��NE'/ �O�
�F>��NJ�O�
���<�N ���O�
1�42�N@�1�O�
J�;!�N ���O�
�L��D4�C�
� � �����N�CO�
� �
�L��D51��
� 1�BD�N@�1�O�
;:�* �N�?8�O�
�L��D6;!�
� � � � ;!)��N;!O�
1: -
2:
3:
l Drought Frequency (events per decade)�
l Drought Severity (SPI per event )�
l Drought Duration (months per event)�
Ø Trend�
Ø Trend�
Ø Trend�
(based on SPI) – Tainan City, 1960-2009
UHI & Fraction of total Rainfall�
Ø The results indicate that rainfall fraction of thunderstorm around the area of core urban is enhanced by the intense UHI effect�
1995 2012
1995 2011
Land use and land cover
Urban heat island intensity (related to urbanisation)
Aug. 1992
Aug. 2007
Aug. 2012
(e.g.,
)
dust storm�
biomass burning�
haze�
man-made pollution�
Taiwan related�
Other Anthropogenic Biomass Dust Mixture�
2010 2014
2010 2014
TOA BOA at the top of the atmosphere bottom of the atmosphere ATM atmosphere
TOA BOA (ATM)
TOA BOAATM Dust
( )
Landsat-8
DINEOF AVHRR
Data Interpolating Empirical Orthogonal Functions(DINEOF)
DINEOF [Ding et al. 2008]
longitude (E)
latit
ude
(N)
120 120.5 121 121.5 122
22
22.5
23
23.5
24
24.5
25
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30%
Regional rainfall change rate during El Nino Spring (Feb-Apr) comparing to the normal year (-0.5<NINO3.4< 0.5)
Lag-correla/onbetweenrainfallmodesandtheENSOandPDOindex
TCCIP
(1975-2008)
2001� 2004�
2007� 2014�
Year� Overall accuracy
(%)�
Kappa coefficien
t�
2001� 83.9� 0.86�
2004� 91.5� 0.89�
2007� 82.8� 0.77�
2014� 91.5� 0.89�
Landsat
(Farm) (Water body)(Urban) (Forest)
(Impervious surface area, ISA) 2001-2014
(2001-2014)
2001-2014
2001-2014
100 ( TCCIP )
(Mountainous terrain)�
2075-2099 mm 25,885,700m2
Positive (negative )values indicate the coastal erosion (deposition )
1918 2012
( ) ( )
(1980-1999)(2020-2039)
2020 2039 45% ( )
39%
overflow on the seawall �
(2020~2039) 10m3/m*sec
- EPI
���� ��� ��� ����
( )
3
1.2.3.4.5
1:
2:
3:
4:
6.Monitoring/Modifying
Adapta2onPathway
5.Planning/Implemen2ng
Adapta2onPathway
4.Iden2fying/Assessing
Adapta2onOp2on
3.Assessing/AnalyzingFutureRisk
2.Assessing/AnalyzingCurrentRisk
1.Iden2fyingProblem/Objec2ve
6.
5.
4.
3.
2.
1.
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
2.1
2.2
2.3
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
4.1
4.2
5.1
5.2
6.1
6.2
6.3
Data
Output
-
~
� � �
AdaptSTEPS�
�
l l
�
AdaptCloud�
AdaptSTEPS AdapCAB
�
l l
l
�
AdaptCross�
�
l l l
l l �
AdaptRanking�
�
l �
AdaptScn�
TCCIP 5km 5km
TaiWAP�
l �
AdaptWth�
�
l l �
AdaptCross
AdaptCross
AdaptCross
AdaptScnAdaptWth
AdaptCrossAdaptRanking
AdaptCloud
AdaptSTEPs
AdaptCross
-
AdaptSTEPS -
- (2012)
AdaptCloud -
AdaptSTEPSAdapCAB
AdaptCross - (Cross-sectoral System Dynamics Model, CSD Model)
Visual BasicCSD Model AdaptCross
VENSIM AdaptCrossAdaptCross
Water supplysub-system
Daily amount of publicwater supply in surface
water
Daily amount ofagricultural water supply
in surface water
Daily amount of publicwater supply in
groundwaterDaily amount of
agricultural water supplyin groundwater
Domestic waterdemand
Industrial waterdemand
Agriculturalwater demand
Land use
Active storagecapacity
Domestic waterquality
Leakage rate
Riverdischarge
Water storagefacilities
Diversioncapacity
Revenue waterratio
Soil type
Channellength
Channel waterconveyance losses
Flow release
Forestcoverage
Pumpingfacilities
Gross DomesticProduct (GDP)
Daily domestic waterconsumption per person
Non-tap waterwithdrawal
Airtemperature
Economicoutput value
Rainfall
Area of theindustrial zone
Irrigated area
Aquaculturewater
Crop outputvalue
Crop speciesLivestock
water
Discount watersupply
Water purificationcapacity
Urban sewagerecycling
Industrialwastewaterrecycling
Return flow
Population
Amount of alternativewater resources supply
Desalination
CSD Model
D-S-R
AdaptCross
AdaptCross VENSIM VENSIMAdaptCross
AdaptRanking -
AdaptRanking
AdaptScn -
TCCIP5km 5km
TCCIP
AdaptWth -
AdaptWth
S2 S4
S4 S5
���
�0�
/)�
#��
���
%2�
,��
�7�
���
�-�
��
�.�
8�
<��
!��
$+�
&��
;3�
�.�
9��
���
!��
� �
�4�
��
(��
�6�
!+�
2*�
�+�
���
:'�
���
#�
�
���
�2�
1
"5
�1
S6
S3
• AdaptCross
•
• TaiWAP AdaptScn GCMRCP
• AdaptRanking
•
~ ~
• • • • • • •
• • •
S4 ( )
• • • • •
S4 ( )
• •
•
•
•
•
•
S2
S3
S5
S6
• • • •
•
• •
• •
•
4.5.6
1:
2: -
.
.
.
.
(
)
-
( )
( )
Bottom up – Top down
-
( ) / ( ..)
/
(102-106 )
-
- (urban resilience):
(resilience) ( the capacity to )
(considering the current situations)
--
Walker and Salt, 2006UK Cabinet Office, 2012
(examining trends and future threats)
---
UK Cabinet Office, 2012Bouwer et al, 2010
(learning from previous experiences)
- Walker and Salt, 2006Hutter, 2011, Hutter et al., 2011, Hutter, 2010, Bernhard, 2010, van den Brink
(setting goals)
-
-
Godschalk, 2003, Fleischhauer, 2008, van den Brink et al., 2011, Gupta et al., 2010
(initiating actions)
------
Fleischhauer, 2008, Hutter, 2011, Hutter et al., 2011, Hutter, 2010, Bernhard, 2010
(involving the public)
--
Godschalk, 2003, Davoudi and Strange, 2009, UK Cabinet Office, 2012, Hutter, 2011, Hutter et al., 2011, Hutter, 2010,
Taipei
Tainan
Taipei Climate Change Adaptation Plan, 2012
44.95%
15.67%
6.85%
14.18%
18.34%
Disaster Infrastructure Water Resources
Land use Energy supply
and industry
Agricultural
production and
biodiversity
Health
Considering the current situation
Examining trends and future threats
Learning from previous experiences
Setting goals
Initiating actions
Involving the public
Tainan Climate Change Adaptation Plan, 2014
11.26%4.69%
21.79%43.79%
18.47%
Considering the current situation
Examining trends and future threats
Learning from previous experiences
Setting goals
Initiating actions
Involving the public
Disasters Infrastructure Water Resources
Land use Energy supply
and industry
Agricultural
production and
biodiversity
Health
Coastal zones判斷目前狀態
評估未來趨勢
從過去的經驗中學習
制定目標
落實行動
公共參與
Findings: -
-
Taipei Tainan
- (urban resilience):
:
( ) � Return period
450 years�Return period
200 years�Return period
100 years�Return period
50 years���� 0.120 (6500)� 0.119 (9500)� 0.120(11500)� 0.151(120000)��� 0.133(6500)� 0.133(9500)� 0.127(11500)� 0.185(120000)���� 0.138(6495)� 0.137(9487)� 0.129(11454)� 0.153(11913)���� 0.253(6500)� 0.253(9500)� 0.269(11500)� 0.347(120000)��� 0.275 (-)� 0.263(-)� 0.404(-)� -(-)�
�$ )-� )-� )-�+�1396.4 1/500
(>�MNH���.4:07O)
1/100 (>F�(.4:8)
�B J�+�����13'� 500,000 300,000
& L! 60% 100% C/ $6,000 $20,000
&��#23"<@?%�
�=*�;� C2�L!
30% 10%
J5DG! 3�(�K�,) 15�A�I/EB� � � �
-> ->
18%30%
(36%)10%
(2%)
:
綠覆率 (RGC)
溼地面積 (AW)
山坡地開發面積比 (RDSL)
災害潛勢區內之開發面積 (ADAP)
指標類型 構面數量
因子數量
功能
土地使用調適能力評估指標
3 10 土地調適指標可用以規劃因應氣候變遷之土地使用調適策略與行動計畫,並有助於空間的設計、評估與分析。
區域調適能力指標
5 19 量化行政區之調適能力,評估社會經濟、基礎設施、制度、知識認知與生態等構面,可針對低調適能力區加強管理
社區調適能力指標
5 15 評估社區因應氣候變遷的調適能力
2020 2025 2030
2020 2025 2030
()
:
:
:
/
:
��������40-80�
:
21
Fire bureau
Mayor
Deputy Mayor
Councilor
Water Resources Bureau
Economic Development Bureau
Tech. Industrial Park
Agricultural Bureau
District office
Irrigation assoc.
Water Resource Agency
Council of Agriculture
Ministry of Economic
Six River Management OfficeSouthern Region Water Resources Office
Taiwan Water Corporation
Public Construction Commission
Southern Taiwan Science Park
Citizen
Construction sector
Agriculture
Industry
Fishery
Transportation Food
Environmental groups
Farmer's assoc.
Experts
:
Central Weather Bureau
Citizen
Construction and Planning Agency
Councilor
Deputy?Mayor
Directorate General of Highways
District office
Education Bureau
Environmental Protection Bureau
Executive Yuan
Experts
Fire bureau
Fishery
Industry
Legislator
Mayor
Ministry of Economic
Ministry of Education
President
Public Works Bureau
Six River Management Office
Transportation Bureau
Water Resource Agency
Water Resources Bureau
:
�����1F�������������� ���
��������
1F
. . :
. .
1: 2: ( )3:
(step 2) GAM
1998~2014
ENSO
1:
(step4,5)
( )( )
2015 ( )
10/23
1:
��
��!��� ���
�(,)��� ��" $ ���*)� ��'��� -����� �%&�+
�� #�
1
2
3
4
5
• • • •
6
2:
(step 4,5)
(step 2)
: (1) (2)
(3)
1
2
3
4
5
• • • •
6
1
2
3
4
5
• • • •
6
3:
2009DPSIR
2 3
:
(bibliometric map)
(e.g., land use, assessment, tourism, heat islands)
: SCOUPS climate adaptation (11326)
bibliomatric map (44)
UNESCO-IHEGEUSIMPRESSIONS
UNESCO-IHEGEUSIMPRESSIONS
TaiCCAT�
IMPRESSIONS�
Tainan City�
Europe �
Dr. Harrison�
IMPRESSIONS
~ Climate change adaption for sustainable urban development (ClimUrban) The ClimUrban project (Climate change adaption for sustainable urban development) is a seed money project leading towards a project application to the new INTERREG Programme period 2014-2020 or other clients.
Memorandum of Understanding (MoU)
Project-led collaboration
-
WebGIS
TCCIP
WebGIS
Locational-oriented
( )
( ) (
)
IMPRESSIONS
( )
(maladaptation)
, TaiCCAT