TACKLING DISASTER & CLIMATE RISKS...Emergency EQ Reconstruction Project Turkey today shares best practices at global level ISMEP (2005-ongoing) MEER (1999-2005) To reduce damage from
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TACKLING DISASTER & CLIMATE RISKS DYNAMIC CHALLENGES & FORWARD-LOOKING SOLUTIONS David Sislen Practice Manager, Urban & Disaster Risk Management Europe & Central Asia Region [ The Insurance Summit - Athens, March 30, 2017 ]
David Sislen Practice Manager, Urban & Disaster Risk Management
Europe & Central Asia Region
[ The Insurance Summit - Athens, March 30, 2017 ]
Presenter
Presentation Notes
The Economist Summit, Athens - March 30 2017 Big picture: climate variability, risk trends and colossal losses Role of World Bank: risk-informed investments, building resilience of most vulnerable countries and preserving development gains Our approach to managing complex risks (Example of ISMEP) Today - Financial Innovation builds resilience (DRFI) Tomorrow - Urban Resilience & Partnerships are inevitable (current initiative in Thessaloniki with 100RC/Rockefeller) Take away messages – work with us?
Source: UNISDR, 2016
Last 20 years = 4 billion pop. affected by disasters, 1 million fatalities and US$ 2 trillion + in lossesDisasters reinforce inequity: 1/3 of events in low/lower-middle income countries but 80% of fatalities
DISASTER EFFECTS RAPIDLY INCREASING
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What we observe today: the rising impact of disasters on assets, people and GDP (“drivers” of risks) Economic losses from ‘natural’ disasters are now reaching between $150-$200 billion each year, an average multiplied by 10 compared to 1980s. In the last two decades the impacts of natural disasters have been devastating, affecting over 4 billion people and killing more than 1 million, while causing around US$2 trillion in economic losses. Natural disasters promote inequity and affect the poor and vulnerable the most. While only a third of natural disasters occur in low and lower-middle income countries, they account for over 80% of all deaths caused by natural disasters.
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What we observe today: the rising impact of disasters on assets, people and GDP (“drivers” of risks) Economic losses from ‘natural’ disasters are now reaching between $150-$200 billion each year, an average multiplied by 10 compared to 1980s. In the last two decades the impacts of natural disasters have been devastating, affecting over 4 billion people and killing more than 1 million, while causing around US$2 trillion in economic losses. Natural disasters promote inequity and affect the poor and vulnerable the most. While only a third of natural disasters occur in low and lower-middle income countries, they account for over 80% of all deaths caused by natural disasters.
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What we observe today: 94% were weather-related catastrophes. 41% attributable to storms and 42% floods. 11% were droughts, heatwaves and forest fires. Only 6% resulted from geophysical events (earthquake, tsunami, volcanic eruption), however 42% of fatalities were Geophysical.
… TRAP PEOPLE IN POVERTY & EXACERBATE INEQUALITY The poor lose more after a disaster Increase of coping mechanisms
… AND ROLL BACK DEVELOPMENT GAINS & DISRUPT LIVELIHOOD/JOBS• Loss of infrastructure/assets,
production, social services, etc.• Loss of livelihood & jobs
DISASTERS CREATE DEVELOPMENT BOTTLENECKS
DISASTERS CAN
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What we now know: up to $300 billion to natural disasters every year. And we now know that the impact on assets translate into an even higher impact on wellbeing. A new study led by the World bank finds the cost to the poor is 60% higher than previous estimates, at over $500 billion. According to the UK’s Overseas Development Institute up to 325 million extremely poor people are expected to live in the 49 most hazard-prone countries by 2030. Economic development, rapid urbanization, demographic growth and climate change will only exacerbate these effects.
YOU MAY THINK OF DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT AS…
OUR APPROACH IS CROSS-SECTORAL
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The good news is that our approach to risk management is comprehensive and wider in scope: We aim to “keep people away from risks” (as seen in previous picture)�An approach to reduce vulnerability and strengthen resilience by protecting lives and assets from known risks�(eg. Early Warning Systems) But we also work with governments to “keep risks away from people”�Decision-makers can also control the creation of new risks through the right policies and interventions �(eg. Building Code regulations)
How do we think about disaster risk financing in the context of disaster risk management?
Understanding risk through data sharing, mapping and modeling methods
Improving policies and legislation for risk-informed land-use planning and investment
Enhancing forecasting and early warning systems, contingency and emergency response plans, and protocols
Developing adequate financial response capacity for managing costs
Conducting post-disaster needs assessments and resilient reconstruction planning
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Briefly define DRM? Processes for designing, implementing, and evaluating strategies, policies, and measures to improve the understanding of disaster risk, foster disaster risk reduction and transfer, and promote continuous improvement in disaster preparedness, response, and recovery practices, with the explicit purpose of increasing human security, well-being, quality of life, and sustainable development. (IPCC, 2012) Explain the framework (5 pillars) we use at the World Bank
Examples of financing instruments created or pioneered by the World Bank in past decade: Sovereign catastrophe risk pools, subnational catastrophe risk pools, catastrophe risk hedging products, contingent loans and components (including cat ddos).
Strengthening Seismic Resilience in Turkey
Vulnerability assessment
Preservation of cultural heritage sites in Istanbul + retrofit public buildings
Seismic Risk Mitigation
1,086 buildings retrofitted incl. schools with 1.5 million students/teachers + hospitals/clinics serving 8.7 M patients/year
Upgrade emergency response capacity
662,000 volunteers trained in disaster preparedness
Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool
2.5 M households covered with affordable property insurance
Marmara Emergency EQ Reconstruction Project
Turkey today shares best practices at global level
ISMEP (2005-ongoing) MEER (1999-2005)
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Presentation Notes
To reduce damage from disasters like Marmara, the Istanbul Seismic Risk Mitigation Project (ISMEP), prepared by the Government of Turkey and the World Bank, went into effect in May 2004 and closed in December 2015 to enhance preparedness, strengthen critical infrastructure to better withstand the shock of earthquakes, improve national capacity for disaster risk management and emergency response and supported measures for enforcing building codes and land use regulations in the Metropolitan City of Istanbul. The $550 million project help improve the city’s capacity for disaster and emergency management and over the last decade, ISMEP has helped the country both mitigate some of the largest impacts of an earthquake and improve the response when emergencies arise To reduce seismic risk, the project pioneered an innovative approach that combined: risk reduction investments such as the reconstruction of public buildings; broader programs including public awareness campaigns; and no-regret investments that strengthen disaster response.
SERBIA DRM PROGRAM
Flood risk assessment
Understanding flood risk rather than only hazard
Institutional Building
Supporting capacity building and institutional development.
Early Warning Systems
Based on risk assessment developing EWS End to End
Risk Financing Program
Access to Cat Insurance
CAT DDO
Building Systems and capacity
Systematic recovery and reconstruction
Post-disaster assessments
MEER (1999-2005)
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After floods 2014, Serbia has done about face on how to deal with adverse natural events. From being reactive and focusing mainly on responding to disasters now they have become the leaders in the region for a proactive risk management approach. The Government only after 6 months after the floods created the DRM program, a platform that allowed the country to reform Laws and to advance risk reduction activities in the country. Also, has developed a Risk financial strategy that has allowed them to have a mix of financial instruments to manage disaster risk including access to Catastrophe Insurance through Europa Re. Serbia is the first country in Europe with a CAT DDO. Effort has been supported by EU, Swiss, UN, Japan, World Bank.
URBAN RESILIENCECHALLENGE OR OPPORTUNITY?
R E C O N S T R U C T I O N
HISTORICAL OPPORTUNITY TO REDUCE RISKS
New Horizons? Investing in Urban Resilience
By 2030 …
• Climate change can force 77 million urban residents back into poverty
• Disasters may cause $314Bn (AAL)
• $400 billion - $1.1 trillion per year required for resilient infrastructure
RISING CHALLENGES DUE TO VARIOUS RISK DRIVERS
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THE CHALLENGE The Development Challenge By 2030, climate change has the potential of forcing up to 77 million urban residents into poverty. And the expected average annual loss from disasters by 2030 is expected to cost more than US$ 314 billion. When accounting for just sea level rise and subsidence in coastal cities, this can result in annual losses of more than US$ 1 trillion by 2050. The Financing Challenge To help our clients, the World Bank has financed more than $9.7 billion via 79 urban resilience projects in 41 countries. But this is only a small fraction of the total resilience investment needs. A recent study by the Cities Climate Finance Leadership Alliance estimates that cities will require an estimated $4.5 – 5.4 trillion dollars per year to finance urban infrastructure needs. Of this, a premium of roughly 9-27% (between $400 billion and $1.1 trillion) is required to ensure this development is low-carbon and climate resilient. A significant portion of this demand will be from cities in the developing world. THE OPPORTUNITY Currently, there is a unique window of opportunity to have lasting impacts in cities in the developing world and ensure that current development patterns are sustainable and resilient in the long-term. Safe Housing: An additional 1 billion homes will be required to house a global population expected to double in the next half century (Bilham, 2009) Resilient Urban Development: Nearly 60% of the area expected to be urbanized by 2030 remains to be built offering (UNISDR, Global Assessment Report, 2015) offering entry points to ensure safe urban development. Leveraging Good Practice: For low- and middle-income countries, there is significant opportunity to leverage the past experience of peers as well as high-income countries towards more resilient urban development pathways.
Towards Urban Resilience in Thessaloniki (with 100RC)
Support to Thessaloniki
Infrastructure and Mobility Planning & Management• Urban Mobility• Water Front Redevelopment
Risk Planning and Management• Government Continuity Plan• Municipal Risk Information
System
Economic and Financial Planning & Management• Real Estate Review• Municipal Finance & Creditworthiness• Economic Development Plan & Tourism
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Presentation Notes
WB technical assistance requested by the City of Thessaloniki in an effort to improve its resilience. The assistance will build on and complement an existing partnership between the Rockefeller Foundation, through 100RC initiative, and the City of Thessaloniki. Through this partnership, the city completed a “Phase 1 Preliminary Resilience Assessment” report, which identified a series of potential natural disaster risks or ‘shocks’ (including earthquake, peri-urban forest fires, heatwaves, atmospheric pollution incidents, ) and a series of ‘stresses’ (including economic unemployment, aging infrastructure and mobility, health access and insufficient integration in planning) that are key threats to city resilience. The World Bank’s assistance will also support the City’s engagement with the Ministry of Economy, Development and Tourism (MoE) under the recently formed Working Group (consisting of the MoE, the Management Organization Unit of Development Programs and the Metropolitan Development Agency of Thessaloniki (inter-municipal agency that hosts the Resilience Office of Thessaloniki)) whose primary purpose is to prioritize metropolitan investments towards accessing the Sectoral Operational Programs of the EU Structural and Investment Funds. Building on its Spatial Data Infrastructure, the Bank is heling the Municipality to develop a risk information system. This system will collect and put risk information (which already exist for Thessaloniki) in one place and will allow the Municipality to start taking risk informed decision and more safer investments. At the same time, the Municipality is developing a Government Continuity Plan against external shock. This plan will allow the Municipality to stand rapidly after a shock and provide the citizens with critical services.
