t2 b7 various letters fdr- letter from waxman with crs report on al qaeda attacks 657

8/14/2019 T2 B7 Various Letters Fdr- Letter From Waxman With CRS Report on Al Qaeda Attacks 657

1/10

Kean

Hamil tonC H A I R

F.FieldingS.GorelickGorton

Ker r eyF.Lehman

J . RoemerThompson

D I R EC TO R

M ay 3, 2004

The Hono rable Henry A . WaxmanU .S. House of RepresentativesWashington, D C 20515D ear Representative Waxm an:Thank you for your letter to the National Com mission on Terrorist Attacks U ponthe United States forwarding the "war against terrorism" statistics compiled bythe C ongressional R esearch Service. W e greatly appreciate your interest an dwillingness to provide information to the C omm ission which we will forward tothe proper investigative teams.This information will be helpful in pursing th e Commission's goal to provideguidance and recomm endations that will improve the cou ntry's fight againstterrorism and make Am erica safer an d m ore secure. Please do not hesitate tocontact us on these and all matters of National interest.

With best regards,

Thomas H. KeanChair Lee H. H amil tonV ice C hair

th Street SW, Room 5125DC 20407

F 202.296.5545lcommiss ion.gov

26 Federal PlazaSui te 13400N ew York, NY 10278T 212.264.1505 F 212.264.1595


2/10

*' TOM DAVIS, VIRGINIA, L>C- I ~ ' THEN^Y A.WAXMAN, CALIFORNIA,CHAIRMAN RANKING MINORITY MEMBERD A N B U R T O N , I N D I A N A > ONE HUNDRE D EIGHTH CO NG RE S S TOM L A N T O S , C A L I F O R N I ACHRI S TOP HE R SHfCS, CONNECTICUT MAJOR H. OWENS, NEW YORKILEANA ROS-LEHTINEN, FLORIDA EDOLPHUS TOWNS, NEW YORKJOHN M. MCHUGH, NEW Y O R K TA**rV*


3/10


4/10

The Honorable Thomas H. Kean, ChairThe Honorable Lee H. Hamilton, Vice ChairApril 6,2004Page 3

sometimes (especially with respect to Al Qaeda) it is probably never definitively known."According to CRS, these limitations mean that the listing of attacks by Al Qaeda "may not beentirely com plete or correct."Another significant limitation is that CRS did not include "terrorist attacks that haveoccurred in Iraq, many of which are suspected to have a link to Al Qaeda (or its associated

groups)." As a result of this limitation, "a large num ber of attacks that could qualify for the list"were excluded from the report.Nonetheless, CRS concludes that its findings represent "the best judgment that we canmake on the available information."I hope yo u find this CRS report helpful to your deliberations. It suggests that the nationhas a long way to go in fighting al Qaeda an d that the record of success cited by President Bushis not as clear-cut as the White House claims.

Sincerely,

Henry A. WaxmanRanking Minority M ember


5/10

^^Congressional-* ResearchService

Memorandum March 31 ,2004TO: House Government Reform CommitteeAttention: David RapalloFROM : Audrey Kurth CroninSpecialist in TerrorismForeign Affairs, Defense, and Trade DivisionSUBJECT: Terrorist Attacks by Al Qaeda

This m em orandum is in response to your request for information abo ut attacks by AlQaeda both before an d after th e September 11,2001 attack on the United States. If you havefurther questions, please contact Audrey Kurth Cronin at x7-7676.Introduction

The request asks for the nu m ber of attacks attributed to Al Qaeda in the two-and-a- halfyears before September 11, 2001, and in the two and a half years a fterwards, as well as thetotal number of attacks by Al Qaeda before September 11, 2001. While an analysis of thenumber of attacks worldwide committed by Al Qaeda might seem a simple, straightforwardexercise, it is not, for the reasons mentioned below. W e have endeavored to provide anassessment of the evidence available an d will describe our findings in the body of thememorandum.

A num ber of issues arise relating to the reliability of this information, w hich is collectedfrom openly available chronologies of terrorist incidents. First, th e most authoritativeunclassified U.S.government document that assesses terrorist attacks, Patterns of GlobalTerrorism (published by the Department of State), comes out in the Spring of the subsequentyear and thu s has a lag of at least several m onths. There is currently no official governmentinformation available after 2002. Second, private organizations that collect informationabout terrorist attacks often define terrorism in different ways. Thus, it is often difficult todirectly compare data that are collected on the basis of different assumptions.Third, and most important with respect to tracking Al Qaed a's attacks, the a ttributionof terrorist attacks can be unk no w n for month s or years, and som etimes (especially with

respect to Al Qaeda) it is probably never definitely known. There is information of varyingreliability in the press about apparent logistical, finan cial, or technical cooperation with AlQaeda, and/or apparent links between operatives in local groups and Al Qaeda. Sometimesgroups may claim to be associated with Al Qaeda so as to associate themselves with AlCongressional Research Service Washington, D.C. 20540-7000


6/10

CRS-2Qaeda's goals or ideology, even if there is no direct physical link. At other times,investigators think there is a link to Al Qaeda, but have no proof. We have used our bestjudgment to assess the reliability of this inform ation, but it is not possible in m any cases tobe sure. Especially recently, the num ber of attacks d efinitely attributable to Al Qaeda hasevolved and changed, as forensic and intelligence evidence comes to light. Therefore,especially for very recent attacks by Al Qaeda, the listing that we provide below may not beentirely complete or correct.

These com men ts are necessary because o f the com plexity of data on terrorist inciden tsgenerally, and the particular problems in tracking Al Qaeda's recently evolving pattern ofattacks. The remaining discussion should be considered with these caveats in mind.Total Al Qaeda Attacks Prior to September 11, 2001

According to the State Department's Patterns o f Global Terrorism, 2002, th e followingattacks are attributed to Al Qaeda before September 11, 2001:'December 1992: Three bo mb ings were reportedly targeted at U.S. troops in Aden, Yemen.There w ere no casualties.1993: Al Qaeda claims to have shot down U.S. helicopters and killed U.S. servicemen inSomalia wh ile they were performing O peration Restore Hope. Bin Laden reportedly believesthat Al Qaeda was thus responsible for the withdrawal of the United States from Somalia.(Note: Some experts do not include this incid ent as a terrorist attack, because it was directednot against civilians but against military m embers in combat.)August 1998: Al Qaeda reportedly conducted th e bombings of the U.S. Embassies inNairobi, Kenya, an d Dares Salaam, Tanzania. 301 persons w ere killed an d more than 5,000were injured.12 October 2000: Al Qaeda reportedly directed the attack on the USS Cole in the port ofAden, Yem en. 17 U.S. Nav y mem bers were killed and 39 were injured. (Note: Som eexperts do not includ e this attack as a "terrorist incident," because it w as directed against amilitary, not civilian , target, although th e Cole was not engaged in any combat during thatperiod.)These four attacks are the total num ber listed by the State Department as attributable to AlQaeda before September 11th. There were also numerous attempted attacks that weredisrupted, including:1994: Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to assassinate Pope Joh n Paul n during his visit toManilla.1995: Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to assassinate President Clinton during a visit to thePhilippines, and to bomb a dozen U.S. trans-Pacific airline flights.

1 U.S. Departm ent of State, Patterns of Global T errorism, 2002 (W ashington, D.C.: U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office, Ap ril 2003), pp . 118-119; also accessible at [http//www.state.gov/s/ct/rls].


7/10

CRS-31999: An Al Qaeda operative reportedly attempted to bomb the Los Angeles InternationalAirport.1999: Simultaneous with the above, Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to carry out terroristoperations a gainst U.S. an d Israeli tourists visiting Jordan fo r millennial celebrations.Terrorist Attacks Attributable to Al Qaeda Immediately beforeSeptember 11, 2001

You h ave asked for the numb er of terrorist attacks in the period tw o-and-a- half yearsbefore September 11, 2001. W e have interpreted this to mean the time period from March1, 1999 to September 11 , 2001 (i.e., a total of 30 mo nths before September 2001). Toanswer this question, we are again relying upon the State Department's Patterns of GlobalTerrorism, 2002:There were no terrorist attacks that w e have been able to identify as attributed to Al Qaedaduring 1999.12 October 2000: Al Q aeda re ported ly directed the attack on the USS Cole in the port ofAden, Yemen. 17 U.S. N avy members were killed and 39 were injured. (Note: Asme ntioned above, some experts do not includ e this attack as a "terrorist incident," becauseit was directed against a m ilitary, not civil ian, target, although the Cole was not engaged inan y combat d uring that period.)The U.S. State Department's Patterns of Global Terrorism lists no more major attacksattributed to Al Qaeda between October 2000 an d September 11,2001. Thus, it appears tha tthere was one m ajor attack publicly attributed to Al Q aeda in the thirty months before 9/11.

The following Al Qaeda plots were reported by the State Department as disruptedduring this time period (March 1, 1999 to September 11, 2001):1999: An Al Qaeda operative reported ly attempted to bom b the Los Angeles InternationalAirport.1999: Al Qaeda reportedly plotted to carry out terrorist o perations aga inst U.S. and Israelitourists visitin g Jordan fo r millennial celebrations.Terrorist Attacks Attributable to Al Qaeda Immediately afterSeptember 11, 2001

You have asked for the number of terrorist attacks in the intervening two-and-a- halfyears after September 11,2001 and to the present date. We hav e interpreted this to mean thetime period from September 12, 2001 to March 31 , 2004 (i.e., a total of 30 months afterSeptember 2001). To answer this question, we are relying upon the State Department'sPatterns of Global Terrorism, 2002, new spaper accounts, and the RAND -MTPT TerrorismIncident database:2

2 RAND-MIPT Terrorism Incident Databa se is maintained by the RAND Corporation, in conjunction(continued...)


8/10

CRS-411 April 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly firebombed a synagogue in Tunisia, killing 19 andinjuring 22.6 O ctober 2002: Al Qaeda repo rtedly directed a suicide attack on a French oil tanker off thecoast of Yemen, killing 1 and injuring 4.8 October 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly attacked U.S. military personnel in Kuw ait, killing 1person and injuring 1 person.12 October 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly supported an attack (primarily carried out by JemaahIslamiya) on a nightclu b in Bali, Indonesia, killing approxim ately 180 people.28 November 2002: Al Qaeda reportedly bombed an Israeli-owned/patronized hotel inMombasa, Kenya, killing 15 and injuring 40. Simultaneously, Al Qaeda operativesunsuccessfully attempted to shoot down an Israeli chartered plane using a surface-to-airmissile as it departed th e airport in Mombasa, Kenya.12 May 2003: Al Qaeda reportedly supported suicide attacks on three Western housingcompounds in Riyad h, Saudi A rabia killed 34 people, including 8 A mericans.16 May 2003: Fourteen suicide bombers, member of a local group (Al-Salafiyyah al-Jihadiyah, or "Salafia Jihadia") allegedly connected to Al Qaeda, carried out nearlysimultaneous attacks on five Western an d Jewish targets in Casablan ca, killing 45 peoplean dinjuring more than 100.15 November 2003: A group called Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, which reportedly hasconnections to Al Qaeda, carried ou t twin suicide truck bomb attacks on synagogues inIstanbul. 25 people were killed and more than 300 were injured.20 November 2003: An organization called the Great Eastern Islamic Raiders' Front (o rIBDA-C), which reportedly m ay have received logistical training an d support from A l Qaeda,carried out suicide attacks against th e British Consulate and the HSBC bank in Istanbul,Turkey.11 March 2004: Sim ultaneou s bom bings of four packed commuter trains in M adrid killed190 people and injured more than 1400. Eviden ce is still being gathered; howe ver, Spa nishpolice have in custody a number of Moroccan and other Islamist radicals who are reportedlymembers of organizations such as Al-Sa lafiyyah al-Jihadiyah, the gro up that carried out theCasablanca attacks an d which reportedly has links with Al Qaeda. A self-describedspokesman for Al Qaeda claimed th e organization's responsibility for the attacks, althoughthat has not been independently confirmed.

Please note that we are not including in this list terrorist attacks that have occurred inIraq, ma ny of which are suspected to have a link to Al Qaeda (or its associated groups), bu twhose genesis is still undetermined. There are a large number of attacks that could qualify

2 (.. .continued)with the Oklahoma C ity Nation al Mem orial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism. It is accessibleat [http://db.mipt.org/mipt_rand.cfm].


9/10

CRS-5fo r th e list, but at this point th e degree to which Al Qaeda is responsible is unclear an ddisputed.

The fo llow ing Al Qaeda plot w as reportedly disrupted during this time period(September 12, 2001 to March 31, 2004):December 2001: Suspected A l Qaeda associate Richard Colvin Reid attempted to ignite ashoe bomb on a transatlantic flight from Paris to Miami.There may be o ther attacks that w ere disrupted during this period; how ever, we do not yethave access to unclassified government sources that would give a more complete andauthoritative acc oun ting of them . Thus it is not possible to determine the total num ber ofattacks attemptedby A l Qaeda an d disrupted by counterterrorist efforts in the 30 months afterSeptember llth.Summary

To summarize, the U.S. State Department lists four attacks as attr ibutable to A l Qaedain the total period of time before September 11 th. In the thirty mo nths im mediately beforeSeptember 11, 2001, the U.S. State Depar tment lists one. In the thirty mo nths afterSeptember 11,2001, the picture is much more com plicated, since the State Department hasno t ye t published its assessment and we do not have completely reliable sources. Co untingonly those attacks that ar e w idely attr ibuted to Al Qaeda in open sources, an d realizing thatthis list is likely to change as more inform ation either confirm ing or disputing an Al Qaedarole becomes available, w e estimate that there have been approximately ten Al Qaedaterrorist attacks since September 11,2001 (not including any potential A l Qaeda-associatedoperations in Iraq). The tota l num ber of disrupted attacks since September 11, 2001 is notk n o w n at this time. This is the best judgme nt that we can make on the available informationand within th e time provided to prepare this memorandum .


10/10

HamiltonBen- Veniste

.Fielding

RoemerRThompson

Date:

TO:

FROM; Dianna Campagna

_ , , frThe attached correspondence fromis being forwarded to you for information and consideration. A copy hasalso been sent toTeam(s) "~^~_ _ for their information. Ifyouhave any questions, please call me on 33 1-4082. Thank you.

T E L (202) 331-4060F A X (202) 296-5545

www.9-1 commission.gov

t2 b7 various letters fdr- letter from waxman with crs report on al qaeda attacks 657

Documents