t ho m.mindset analytics.200901.slideshare.v2

January, 2009

The Mind-set Prior to Analytics(Perspective of The House of Marketing)

2THoM.Mindset Analytics.200901.Slideshare.v2.ppt

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The House of Marketing (THoM)Customer orientation present in all four functional areas we specialize inFunctional expertise

Corporate and business unit strategy

Growth and innovation strategy

Business plan, modeling and scenario building

Market and competitive analysis

Strategy

Marketing

Communication

Marketing strategy and marketing plan

Customer insights and intelligence

Customer segmentation and value proposition

Sales and channel management

Customer relationship management

Branding and pricing

Product management and new product development

Communication strategy and plan

Marketing (communication) efficiency and effectiveness

Organization

Organization design and development of new organizations

Program management and change management

Core process mapping and developing reference process models

2


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Objective of today’s presentation

Using data intelligently has already been around for decades …

So are the related issues…

The analytics market is offering an abundance of solutions to gear up your data abilities…

And customers/companies are increasingly more willing to deploy data in some way…

But are they really ready to turn their minds to data ?

This presentation provides the view of The House of Marketing onhow companies should gradually structure their analytical perspectives and pace the required transformation in the organization.


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1. Kondratieff’s case

2. The Kondra-stages

3. The Kondra-quences

Agenda


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KondratieffMacro-economic analytics ‘avant la lettre’

Professor Nikolai D. Kondratieff – Social Sciences

• Publishing in 1926 (that is 3 years prior to the ‘crash of 1929’)

• Analyzing the capitalistic economy

• “Die langen Well der Konjunktur”, Archiv für Sozialwissenschaftund Sozialpolitik vol.56, no.3, pp.573-609

Renown for building a macro-economic theory, amongst many …

Still subject to discussion today: Believers vs. Non-Believers, despite

• Scientific study

• Data proven study (descriptive)

• Historically proven (post-study)

We’ll focus on the original way of working of Kondratieff in 1926We’ll focus on the original way of working of Kondratieff in 1926


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Ambitions at the start of Kondratieff’s study

Initial objectives of the study:

• Unravel or structure the complexity of capitalist dynamics (i.e.find the main driving factors)

• Analyze for trends or movements in the long term (i.e. economic shifts)

- No prejudice on cyclical character


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The issues: Sounds familiar ? Comments

Identifying what’s relevant (i.e. which macro-economic factors to include)

Long/short observation time

Data availability

Data reliability

Data representativeness

Normalization

Mitigating short-term distortions

Contextual issues

Only interest rates and gold reserves as readily available macro factors

Maximally 140 years of data, eventually representing only 2,5 cycles

Only some French and English data going back to 1800’s

Missing data (wars), different sources or collection methods within the same sample

US proxying for England for some data; coal consumption proxying for industrial activity

Divide by population data (if available) for comparison

Using new statistical techniques of 1919-1920

Territory changes…

The analytical issues were no different than ours today


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• Revealing a likely high risk of depression (1929)

• Cycles of 50 years (48-60yrs), on top of the known 7-11 yr and 1,5yr cycles

• Multiple options of concurring factors to trigger change

Some results

The merits

The comments

• Shedding light on relevant and less relevant factors

• Cyclical character of mankind

• Denying linear behaviors

• Gold production is not a determinant

• …

• ‘He’s not so sure, is he?’

• ‘Cycles… really? Not a surprise’

• ‘We knew it was complex’

• It falls short of clarifying the nature and types of the wave-like movements (cause vs. consequence)

• …

Results versus acceptance …


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What happened?

Where did Kondratieff go wrong?

Or did his audience?


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Agenda


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All analysts risk having a ‘Kondratieff experience’

In our experience discussing analytics with customers, The House of Marketing tackles the readiness and organizational understanding in phases …

… as we often need to work around disconnects in

• Language used

• Perspective and interpretation

• Mutual understanding

between the analytical and the non-analytical individuals involved

There is a lot more to prepare and align prior to any important analytical job, especially for an external provider

90% of a data mining job is data preparation …

… but at least 50% of the whole job is building a common (data) mind-set of people


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Kondra-stage 1 Kondra-stage 2

Convinced that there is (sufficient) data out there• Techniques• Approaches• Proxies• Hypotheses

Understood that data needs to be ‘screened’• It’s not just input

Comprehended that you don’t have to wait for IT• IT awaits you

Pre-defined what you want to DO in the end• Application / implementation side

Understood that you’re dealing with real life• Ambiguity and probability

• There’s no such thing as exact sciences

Perfection has generated no results yet• It’s about an improvement vs. today

• You don’t need all data

Understood your data and data processing• It’s never just data• It’s never the right data

Kondra-stage 3

Comfortable in not always having the ‘why’• But there’s always more than you know

Comprehended that predictive is not descriptive• A world of difference

And even descriptive is already more than reporting

Understood that your organization requires a multi-skilled (marketing) team

IT solutions eventually help• Scaling• Integrating• Automating

Today’s stakeholders’ mind-set process on analytics: Clearing out the clouds jointly

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Kondra-stage 1 Kondra-stage 2

Convinced that there is (sufficient) data out there• Techniques• Approaches• Proxies• Hypotheses

Understood that data needs to be ‘screened’• It’s not just input

Comprehended that you don’t have to wait for IT• IT awaits you

Pre-defined what you want to DO in the end• Application / implementation side

Understood that you’re dealing with real life• Ambiguity and probability

• There’s no such thing as exact sciences

Perfection has no results yet• It’s about an improvement vs. today

• You don’t need all data

Understood your data and data processing• It’s never just data• It’s never the right data

Kondra-stage 3

Comfortable in not always having the ‘why’• But there’s always more than you know

Comprehended that predictive is not descriptive• A world of difference

And even descriptive is already more than reporting

Understood that your organization requires a multi-skilled (marketing) team

IT solutions eventually help• Scaling• Integrating• Automating

Discussing the mind-set stages helps the non-analytical

Getting to dataGetting started

Getting to information Getting to data usage

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Agenda


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Analytics cannot (correctly) hold and prosper on its own

Kondra-stage 1 Kondra-stage 2 Kondra-stage 3

Getting to dataGetting started

Getting to information

Getting to data usage

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Goal-based data management(not DWH)

Analytical discovery

Competitive advantage creation

Building common

understanding of

stakeholders

Into the analyticslanguage

Up to the managerial

side


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Why your audience is everything:

Professor Nickolai Kondratieff

After the Russian Revolution of 1917, he helped develop the first Soviet Five-Year Plan, for which he analyzed factors that would stimulate Soviet economic growth.

In 1926, Kondratieff published his findings.

His report was viewed as a criticism of Stalin's stated intentions for the total collectivization of agriculture.

Soon after, he was dismissed from his post as director of the Institute for the Study of Business Activity in 1928.

He was arrested in 1930 and sentenced to the Russian Gulag (prison).

His sentence was reviewed in 1938, and he received the death penalty, which was probably carried out that same year.

Kondratieff's theories documented in the 1920's were validated with the depression less than 10 years later.

Source: www.kondratieffwinter.com


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The end

Probably Kondratieff's greatest contribution to the science of investment is not his observation the world economy operates in long cycles

Cycles would suggest a repetitive nature to events. While the underlying economic conditions will repeat over time due just to the physical nature of our world, our reactions will always be tempered by knowledge and experience. The history of man has been one long climb higher. Kondratieff recognized progress as the irreversible trend

Imposed upon our progressive nature are the physical limits of life. It is the interaction of these physical limits with our dreams and aspirations that creates the constant push pull of the economy known as the Long Wave

Source: www.kondratieffwinter.com


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For more information on marketing analytics, contact

19

Stijn Ghekiere

[email protected]

+32 (0)474 94 60 15

The House of Marketing

www.thom.eu

Subscribe to our monthly Marketing Buzz newsletter

on www.mingle.be (register)

t ho m.mindset analytics.200901.slideshare.v2

Business

ppt draft

reporting comprehended

approaches probability

thing hypotheses

implementation side

kondratieffs case 2

techniques ambiguity

mindset analytics