System Recap May 24, 2017

1

Agenda

• Timeline for IOU Distribution Planning Processes

• Presentation of proposed system level DER assumptions for 2017/18 Distribution Planning Process (DPP)

• Current System Forecast Review

2

Distribution Planning Timing Needs IOU’s need for a ruling on the Assumptions and Framework for use in the 2017/18 DPP

• PG&E would like to have a ruling by not later than mid-July on the system level starting points

• SCE/SDG&E would need a ruling in by end of Q3 (August)

The current IEPR is aligned with the needs incorporated in the TPP

How can the IEPR be further aligned to support the needs in the DPP?

3

Proposed System Level DER Assumptions for

2017/18 Distribution Planning Process

SCE PG&E SDG&E

DG (BTM) SCE Latest Forecast

(November 2017)

PG&E Latest Forecast

(2017 IEPR Submittal)

SDG&E Latest Forecast

(2017 IEPR Submittal)

Energy Efficiency 2016 IEPR - Low Mid AAEE (C&S)

2016 IEPR - Low Mid AAEE 2016 IEPR - Low Mid AAEE

2017 EE Potential and Goals Study (EE)

DR (Load-

modifying)

2017 DR Load Impact Report

(Filed 4/3/17)

2016 IEPR Update Mid Case

(2015 DR Load Impact Report )

2017 DR Load Impact Report

(Filed 4/3/17)

DR (Supply-side) n/a n/a n/a

Electric Vehicles SCE Latest Forecast

(November 2017) 2016 IEPR Update Mid Case

SDG&E Latest Forecast

(2017 IEPR Submittal)

Storage (BTM) Existing storage + SCE Contracted Procurement Existing Storage + AB2514 Targets Existing Storage + AB2514

Targets

Consistent with 2017 ACR* for the 2017/18 TPP Deviation from 2017 ACR* for the 2017/18 TPP

*CPUC Assumptions ACR issued via Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process outlining preferred assumptions and scenarios for use in long term planning processes such as the CAISO transmission planning process (TPP)

4

Current Stakeholder Review of System

Forecasts • Existing CPUC Regulatory Processes provide oversight of:

– Using system forecasts for grid investments

• Each IOU litigates their system forecasts as well as distribution forecasts as part of the GRC

– Using IOU system forecasts for procurement

• Each IOU’s system forecast is litigated via ERRA, the BPP, and the LTPP process

• Further transparency regarding the assumptions and methodology is provided via review by the Procurement Review Group of the IOU forecasts

• CEC IEPR Stakeholder Process

– IOU’s submit their latest corporate forecast via the IEPR process in odd years for incorporation into the CEC’s IEPR

– The Demand Analysis Working Group serves as a place to discuss and refine methodologies as well as coordinate methods to capture policy impacts

– Series of public stakeholder meetings are held during the IEPR process to discuss inputs, modeling and results of CEC's forecasting process

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Appendix

6

Due to SCE’s DPP Timeline, SCE will align its

forecast more closely with the 2017 IEPR SCE Rationale

DG (BTM) SCE Latest Forecast

(November 2017)

• Recent policy changes since the 2016 IEPR including ZNE, FITC, and NEM 2.0 and

re-calibration to latest adoption data

(consistent with changes CEC seeks to reflect in 2017 IEPR)

Energy Efficiency

2016 IEPR - Low Mid

AAEE (C&S)

2017 EE Potential and

Goals Study (EE) • SCE’s programs are designed to meet targets laid out in the EE Potential and Goals

study

DR (Load-modifying) DR Load Impact

Report (4/3/17)

• This represents the best information available. Further, this report is the source

that would likely be utilized in the updated 2018 ACR containing A&F for the TPP

issued during SCE’s 2017/18 DPP

DR (Supply-side) n/a

Electric Vehicles SCE Latest Forecast

(November 2017)

• SCE’s 2017 forecast will reflect the acceleration in EV adoption in line with planned EV infrastructure investment from utilities and third parties

• SCE’s forecast will also support statewide GHG reduction targets

Storage (BTM)

Existing storage + SCE

Contracted

Procurement

Consistent with 2017 ACR for the 2017/18 TPP Deviation from 2017 ACR for the 2017/18 TPP

*CPUC Assumptions ACR issued via Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process outlining preferred assumptions and scenarios for use in long term planning processes such as the CAISO transmission planning process (TPP)

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SDG&E’s Forecast Correlation with the IEPR

Process for 2017-18 Distribution Planning

Assumption Rationale

DG (BTM) SDG&E Latest Forecast

(2017 IEPR Submittal) • Recent policy changes since the 2016 IEPR including ZNE, FITC, and NEM 2.0 and

re-calibration to latest adoption data

Energy Efficiency 2016 IEPR - Low Mid

AAEE

DR (Load-modifying) 2016 DR Load Impact

Report

• This represents the best information available. Further, this report is the primary

source that would likely be utilized in the updated 2018 ACR containing A&F for

the TPP issued during SDG&E’s 2017/18 DPP

DR (Supply-side) n/a

Electric Vehicles SDG&E Latest Forecast

(2017 IEPR Submittal)

• SDG&E’s 2017 forecast will reflect the acceleration in EV adoption in line with planned EV infrastructure investment

• SDG&E’s forecast will also include the results of the EVCC survey

Storage (BTM) Existing Storage +

AB2514 Targets

Consistent with 2017 ACR for the 2017/18 TPP Deviation from 2017 ACR for the 2017/18 TPP

*CPUC Assumptions ACR issued via Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process outlining preferred assumptions and scenarios for use in long term planning processes such as the CAISO transmission planning process (TPP)

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PG&E's System-Level Forecast Assumptions

for 2017/2018 Distribution Planning

PG&E Rationale

DG (BTM) PG&E Latest Forecast

(2017 IEPR Submittal )

• Policy developments that are not incorporated in the 2016 IEPR including

the extension of the 30% Federal ITC for solar, NEM 2.0,and increased

policy emphasis on Zero Net Energy homes

Energy Efficiency 2016 IEPR - Low Mid AAEE

DR (Load-modifying) 2016 IEPR Update Mid Case

(2015 DR Load Impact Report

DR (Supply-side) n/a

Electric Vehicles 2016 IEPR Update Mid Case

Storage (BTM) Existing Storage + AB2514

Targets

Consistent with 2017 ACR for the 2017/18 TPP Deviation from 2017 ACR for the 2017/18 TPP

*CPUC Assumptions ACR issued via Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process outlining preferred assumptions and scenarios for use in long term planning processes such as the CAISO transmission planning process (TPP)

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Load Forecasts for 2017/18 DPP

• The current statewide forecast (2016 IEPR) is a system forecast largely supporting the TPP

• Distribution Planning requires more granular local forecasts/information which are not currently in the IEPR – Pushing the IEPR down to a sub-regional level (e.g. A-Bank for SCE) would

allow for better reconciliation between the system forecast and local planning knowledge

• Each IOU has developed methods that best serve its customers by maintaining reliability on each distribution system

SCE PG&E SDG&E

Load Forecast for

2017/18 DPP

SCE Latest Forecast (November 2017),

benchmarked against 2017 IEPR, and

informed by local known growth

projects

2016 IEPR Forecast

informed by local

known growth

projects

2016 IEPR Forecast informed by local

known growth projects

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

MW

Hour

Substation A Substation B Substation C System

Example of System vs. Local Peak Forecasts

The system forecast represents the overall peak for the system • Underlying subs will have different local peaks due to differing factors (e.g.

climate, customer composition) • Capacity planning for local regions must consider the local peak as

opposed to the system peak • Coincidence describes the relationship between the local and system peak

System Peak (TPP)

Local Peaks (Distribution Planning)

Note: This example assumes all substations peak on the same day. In actuality, Substations peak on different days and different time of year compared to system 10

Disaggregation Methodologies

In future cycles, IOUs will continue to work toward more

robust methods incorporating the following principles: Utilize statistically appropriate, data-driven methodologies for each

DER, customer segment, and level of disaggregation

Integrate data from DER industry partners to enhance forecasting

accuracy

Develop approaches to manage uncertainty associated with granular

allocation of DER

Periodically re-assess the modeling approach for each DER as

increased adoption leads to better data

Share best practices and leverage learning process to strive for

continuous improvement both in forecasting and in using the

forecasts for distribution planning

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12

PG&E DER forecasts (Illustrative)

DER Type Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

PV MW - Cumulative Capacity 3,168 3,894 4,671 5,333 5,926 6,306 6,713 7,129 7,526 7,799 8,037

EE

GWh - Mean Forecast -

Cumulative Savings,

beginning 2017

1,922 4,073 5,778 7,488 9,178 10,872 12,556 14,185 15,802 17,368 19,013

EV GWh - Cumulative 441 514 594 689 842 1,014 1,224 1,481 1,778 2,147 2,585

DRMW - Peak Impact (Total

System)508 524 526 529 531 533 533 534 534 535 535

Storage MW - Cumulative Capacity 74 125 187 246 310 381 459 544 632 722 810

Notes:

1. All DER forecasts presented are included in PG&E's 2017 Approved corporate long-term forecast

2. Forecasts of PV, EE, EV and DR provided as part of April 13, 2017 IEPR submission.

3. Storage cumulative capacity courtesy of Swetha Meenakshi

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SCE DER forecasts (Illustrative)

DER Type Unit 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

PVMW - Cumulative

Capacity2271 3008 3869 4730 5486 6117 6651 7099 7475 7797 8080

EE/C&S1 GWh (Low-Mid) -

Cumulative2419 3104 3802 4509 5216 5938 6674 7404 8155 8933

EV - Light Duty GWh - Cumulative 509 893 1,353 1,876 2,460 3,102 3,776 4,387 5,021 5,665 6,316

LMDR MW - Peak Impact 50 62 74 93 86 92 97 102 107 112 117

Energy Storage MW 31 MW Existing2 + 220.6 MW of BTM ES Procurement

1. SCE Presented the system wide Mid case #s at the GSWG meeting however for distribution planning, consistent with the TPP SCE intends to utilize the low-mid scenario 2. Existing as of 12/31/2016

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SDG&E DER forecasts (Illustrative)

DER 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027

BTM PV 690 780 850 910 970 1050 1130 1220 1320 1420 1530 1640 Capacity

EE 40 70 100 130 160 190 220 250 270 300 340 370 Peak

EV 0 10 10 10 10 20 20 20 20 30 30 40 Peak

Storage 20 20 20 30 30 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Capacity

Non-event DR 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Peak

For DERs w/ Capacity rather than peak: • IEPR peak forecast for PV has changed significantly due to peak-load shift

analysis. Capacity, for this purpose, provides clearer understanding. Coincident peak will be analyzed with LoadSEER.

• IEPR forecast for storage is not available. Statewide mandates are capacity only. Operating characteristics for storage are not clear yet so coincident peak is not available.