syst 542 decision support systems engineeringseor.vse.gmu.edu/~klaskey/syst542/dss_unit9.pdf ·...

Unit 8 - 1 -

Department of Systems Engineering and Operations Research

Copyright © 2006, Kathryn Blackmond LaskeySYST 542

SYST 542Decision Support Systems

Engineering

Instructor: Kathryn Blackmond LaskeyFall Semester, 2006

Unit 9: Decision Support for Multi-Person Decisions

Unit 8 - 2 -



Outline

• Group Support– Group decision making: opportunities and pitfalls– How GSS can help– Hardware and software configurations for GSS

• Enterprise Decision Support– Definition– Typical capabilities

• Net-centric Decision Support

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Multiple-UserDecision Support

• Group support– Supports a group of people making a decision– May be in same location or distributed– DSS may have multiple users single user

• Enterprise support– Supports corporate-wide decisions– Multiple users at different locations, in different

organizational units, using system for differentpurposes

– Provide summary information, analysis andinterpretation, drill-down capability

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Benefits of Working inGroups

• Easier to understand problem• More people accountable for decisions• Better at catching errors• Synergistic effects• More people committed to implementation• Reduces sources of resistance to

implementation• Balance risk propensity

– (risk takers vs. risk avoiders)

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A Survey• Most of the meetings I attend are:

• At meetings I attend, people tend to:

• After the meeting, people tend to:

1 2 3 4 5Boring, unproductive

and uselessEssential and

productive

1 2 3 4 5Lose focus andwander off topic

Stay on task

1 2 3 4 5Forget about themeeting and do

nothing

Conscientiouslycarry out action

items

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A Group is not an “IT”• Members of a group may have different

– Objectives– Information– Competencies

• A group may have difficulty– Communicating information between members– Coordinating implementation of policies

• Interpersonal dynamics affects outcomes– Groupthink– Domination by strong personalities– Fear of expressing opinion– Lack of commitment & ownership

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The Anthropomorphic Trap

If a group is an "IT" then it must be that:- Capitalistic societies like to have monopolistic

concentrations of markets- Industrial societies prefer to pollute their air, water

and land- Commuter societies like rush hour traffic jams- and so on…

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Challenges for Group Support• Each member of the group faces a

different decision problem• DMs must understand their own andothers' decision problems

• Groups face inevitable communicationand coordination problems

• DMs may face incentives tomisrepresent their decision problems

It is important to distinguishgenuine conflict from problems incommunication and coordination

??????

Unit 8 - 9 -



Creating and Claiming Value(Lax and Sebenius)

Value creation- increase total size of the pie by finding options both

sides prefer to the ones currently being discussed.- tactics: communication, information sharing, joint

exploration of values- leaves negotiatior open to value claiming tactics

Value claiming- claim as much of the existing pie as possible for oneself- tactics: information hiding, exaggerating own

concessions, minimizing others' concessions,adversarial attitude

- inhibits value creation

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CREATE Strategy vs

CLAIM Strategy

GREATAWFUL

SO-SOSO-SO

GOODGOOD

AWFULGREAT

Negotiator 1's Action

Negotiator2's Action

Create Claim

Create

Claim

This structure is called a “prisoners dilemma”

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Factors Fostering Cooperationin Social Dilemmas

• Small groups• Open communications• Face to face interactions• Feelings of group solidarity• Strong shared social norms• Trust• Public actions• Penalties for defecting• Repeated play

How do we encouragethese factors viagroup support?

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Win-Win Paradigm

• Any decision problem involving morethan one person can be viewed as aproblem in negotiation

• Zero-sum view concentrates on gettingbest for yourself given a set of options(claim value)

• Win-win view concentrates on findingnew solutions that are better foreveryone (create value)

• A trained facilitator or mediator can helpguide the group to win-win thinking

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Conflicting Objectivesand Win-Win Options

Benefit to person 1

Ben

efit

to p

erso

n 2

Options under considerationOptions no one has thought of

Win-Lose Direction

Win-Lose Direction

Win-Win Direction

Win-Win DirectionPareto frontier

Lose-Lose Direction

Lose-Lose Direction

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Groupthink(Janis and Mann)

• What is groupthink?– Pressure to conform– Collective rationalization– Illusion of invulnerability

• Factors leading to groupthink– Highly cohesive group– Insulation from external influences– Lack of systematic procedures for

exploring and evaluating alternatives– Strong, directing leader– High stress

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Problems with OrganizationalDecision Making

(Welch)

1. Omissions in surveying alternate courses of action2. Omissions in surveying objectives3. Failure to examine major costs and risks4. Poor information search5. Selective bias in processing available information6. Failure to reconsider alternatives initially rejected7. Failure to work out detailed implementation,

monitoring, and contingency plans

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In Summary…A group has more information, resources, andbrainpower than any individual in the groupBut…

• There is no monolithic "group preference" (in theory or inpractice)

• Even if there were, group members may act in own interestrather than group interest

• Groupthink can negate benefits of "more heads"And yet…

• Groups can accomplish more than any individual could• GSS can facilitate this process

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How Can GSS Help?• A GSS cannot solve the fundamental problems of:

- what are the group's objectives?- how can individuals be induced to act in service of those

objectives?• A GSS can facilitate discussion of these issues and

help the group reach consensus• A GSS can help a group make decisions

- in a more systematic manner- that are more acceptable to all participants- that are based on better information and greater expertise

• Objectives of GSS- Create shared understanding of the problem- Facilitate and direct discussion- Provide support for analysis and choice of option or plan- Create satisfaction among group members- Create buy-in and ownership of solution

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GDSS Can Support:

• Problem formulation- identify salient features of environment- identify objectives- identify alternative courses of action

• Analysis- predict consequences of each COA (including

uncertainties)- assess impact of consequences on objectives

• Choice• Implementation

- draw up action plan- monitor progress (between-meeting support)

Unit 8 - 19 -



Levels of Support(deSanctis and Gallupe)

• Level I: enhanced communication- sending & receiving information- access to data (personal or corporate) during meeting- display of ideas, data, tables to all participants- electronic message interchange- rating scales or ranking schemes- display / modification of agenda

• Level II: decision structuring- planning models (PERT, CPM, Gantt)- utility & probability assessment models- budget allocation models- statistical methods- Delphi, Nominal group, or other idea generation methods

• Level III: management & control of decision process- enforced communication patterns- automated Roberts Rules of Order

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Group Decision Support Situations• Synchronous, co-located

– Decision conference tools

• Synchronous, distributed– Audio & video conferences– Electronic whiteboard– Screen sharing– Chat rooms

• Asynchronous– Bulletin boards– Threaded discussion & electronic bulletin boards– Document / work product sharing– Email– Voice mail

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Idea Generation: Nominal Group Technique

• Generation and initial screening of ideas• Group is “nominal” because members do not interact

directly (reduces influence of dominant individuals)• Idea generation:

– Facilitator poses “trigger question”– Group members record a list of ideas on paper– Each group member in turn states one idea which is recorded by

facilitator– Repeat until all ideas are recorded– Ideas are discussed, clarified, and combined (no criticism!)

• Prioritization (optional)– Group prioritizes ideas for subsequent discussion– Goal is not to evaluate

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Option Selection

• Discussion, ranking of options by group members– Delphi - group members vote anonymously, view summary

of votes of group, repeat until consensus» Benefit - prevents strong individuals from dominating process» Problem - in standard Delphi group members do not discuss reasons for

ranking» Can GDSS help?

• Elicitation of group multiattribute utility function– The process:

» Defining attributes» Assessing weights» Viewing results and modifying as necessary

– A single group utility function may not a reasonableassumption

» Process helps to identify commonalities and differences» This understanding is often helpful in achieving consensus course of action

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Role of GSS

• On-line entry and solution of decision model• Bookkeeping & agenda management• Anonymous discussion & sharing of ideas

– Requires networked system– Encourages quiet individuals to contribute to discussion– Discourages intimidation and domination of discussion

• Automated vote tally and summary of results

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Common GDSS Components • Agenda management

– Agenda entry– Agenda display

• Brainstorming & idea generation– Idea entry– Commenting tool– Idea categorization

• Electronic whiteboard• Voting & survey tools

– Vote / survey creation– Vote / survey response entry– Result display

• Analysis tools

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For demo see http://www.groupsystems.com

Thinktank from GroupSystems

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Potential Benefits of GDSS

• More thorough exploration of values• Better sharing of information• More creative option generation• More systematic option evaluation• Increased communication• Increased participation• Increased group cohesion• Increased acceptance of group decision

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Pitfalls of GDSS• Reliability of software / network• Poor usability• Steep learning curve - User unfamiliarity with GDSS

gets in the way of productive interaction• Process assumed by GDSS designers is poor

match to task and/or users• Cost of support does not justify benefit

Unit 8 - 28 -



17 Varieties of Computer Support(Johansen)

1. Face to face meeting facilitation service (office automation + facilitator)2. Group decision support (video monitor under control of facilitator, large screen display)3. Computer-based extensions of telephone (conference call service)4. Presentation support software (vugraphs, etc.)5. Project management software6. Calendar management for groups7. Group authoring software8. Computer-supported face-to-face meetings (each group member has own workstation)9. Screen sharing software10. Computer conferencing systems (group email)11. Text-filtering software12. Computer supported audio or video conferences (each participant has computer)13. Conversational structuring14. Group memory management (between-meeting record)15. Computer-supported spontaneous interaction (support for informal exchange among people

widely separated)16. Comprehensive work team support17. Nonhuman participants in team meetings (unfacilitated DSS + expert system)

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Johansen (cont.)• Ordered in increasing difficulty of

implementation and successful use• Support for:

- Face to face meetings (1, 2, 4, 8)- Electronic meetings (3, 9, 10-12, 17)- Between meetings (5-7, 13-16)

Unit 8 - 30 -



Hardware Configurations for GDSS

• Single PC– Screen projection– Single operator enters data

• Multiple networked PC’s– Connected by email or network– Voting mechanisms, email, shared files, shared workspace

• Decision room with e-meeting facility– U-shaped table with recessed networked client PC’s– Server system aggregates info from participants– Large screen projector

• Distributed DSS– Participants in different locations– Networked PC’s– Can be combined with video and/or audio teleconference

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Empirical Evaluation:One Study of Level I GDSS

(Watson, DeSanctis and Poole)

• Study involved Level I GDSS to supportconsensus

• GDSS groups performed better thanunsupported groups and as well as paper andpencil groups

• Other effects of GDSS use:- Reduced face-to-face communication- GDSS required effort & detracted from attention paid to problem- Groups using GDSS were more process-oriented and less

issue-oriented

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Decision Conference• Participants (10-30) meet for 2-3 days in an intensive session

away from usual place of business• Goal is to achieve mutual understanding of the problem, to

evaluate meaningful & practical set of options, & to achieveconsensus on single option

• Models (often MAU) focus discussion, highlight areas ofagreement/disagreement, and help to avoid groupthink

• Facilitator helps group to structure model & elicit judgments• Goal is consensus on course of action, not getting "right"

model• Software is used to perform computations in real time• Options for software support:

– Single computer operated by analyst with results projected on screen– Networked computers allow anonymous or attributed exchange of

brainstorming ideas, votes, MAU weights• Cost of conference in $30-50K range

Unit 8 - 33 -



Virtual Organization• Network of organizations and/or individuals

linked by information & communicationstechnology to exploit market opportunities– Operate continuously around the clock– Communicate instantaneously across large distances

• GDSS technology enables emergence ofvirtual organizations

• Virtual organizations will require changes intraditional management practices and decisionprocesses

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Outline




Unit 8 - 35 -



Information Needs of Executives• What function do executives play in an

organization?• What are the unique information needs of

executives?• How can automation help?

Unit 8 - 36 -



Enterprise Information System(EIS) Benefits

• Increase quantity and quality of informationavailable to executives

• Provide concise, relevant, timely information– View data summaries– Drill down in real time to provide details on information

summaries– View and analyze historical trends

• Focus executive attention on critical successfactors

• Reduce delays due to unavailability of neededinformation

• Increase productivity of meetings & improvedcommunication

Unit 8 - 37 -



Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)• ERP systems integrate data from the entire

enterprise into a single enterprise-wide system– Major vendors: SAP, Oracle, PeopleSoft

• Benefits– Reduce duplication of functions– Improve quality and customer satisfaction through better

information to support decisions» “They charged me a late fee and dropped me from my class

because they sent my tuition bill to my mother’s address eventhough I told them I had moved to a new address. They said Imy address change was another department’s database”

• Problems– Traditional ERP systems are transaction based with limited

or no OLAP (online analytic processing) ability– “One size fits all” ERP system can be a poor fit to an

organization’s processes– Tailoring a vendor’s ERP solution to your organization may

be very expensive and the result may still be unsatisfactory

Unit 8 - 38 -



Aligning Information Systems &Organizational Structure

• Community - Collection of independent actorscollaborate to exploit business opportunities– GDSS supports coordination & information sharing among actors

• Federation - Limited central authority withsubdivisions that have significant autonomy– GDSS supports knowledge sharing, resource allocation,

administration of performance-based incentives• Mobile - Geographically mobile and organizationally

fluid structure– Portable communication & computing over networks enables

mobile structure• Hierarchical - Many levels of management

– DSS enables more efficient management and control by providingautomated support for many routine administrative tasks

Source: http://dssresources.com

Unit 8 - 39 -



Enterprise Portals

• Functionality and scalability requirements often can beachieved only by integrating multiple products

– Creates integration challenges• Critical success factors:

– Usability– User buy-in and commitment to successful deployment– Dedicated support within organization for architecting access procedures,

user support, and maintenance• With greater market penetration will come opportunities for

decision support

An Enterprise Portal is a technology platform that allows knowledgeworkers to gain access to, collaborate with, make decisions and takeaction on a wide variety of business-related information regardless ofthe employee's virtual location, the location of the information, or the

format in which the information is stored presented through a browserand other digital formats. - Heidi Collins, KM Magazine, Jan 2004

Unit 8 - 40 -



Outline




Unit 8 - 41 -



Net-Centric Vision• Decision makers in diverse locations share common

picture of situation• Networked information systems allow immediate

access to relevant information and immediatecommunication between geographically distributedactors

• Each actor has timely access to mission-criticalinformation

• Information is properly synchronized and up-to-date• Multi-level security permits needed access while

preventing non-authorized use

Unit 8 - 42 -



Lessons from Iraq• Networked information technologies gave US

forces unprecedented advantage– Commanders in theater and stateside watched battle

unfold in real time– Troops in field had access to real-time information about

units hundreds of miles away

• Cultural and leadership barriers kept fullpotential from being reached– Net-centric operations depend on process and culture as

much as technology– We have not yet transformed our decision making

processes to exploit the new technologies to their fullest

• These lessons from the Iraq conflict apply tothe broader problem of distributed, net-centricdecision support

Defense News, January, 2004

Unit 8 - 43 -



OASIS Reference Model for Service Oriented Architecturehttp://www.oasis-open.org/committees/download.php/19679/soa-rm-cs.pdf

Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA)• Paradigm for information architecture design

– Organize and utilize distributed capabilities– Match capabilities of providers with needs of consumers– Capabilities required to meet a need may cross ownership

boundaries

• Viewed as foundational technology for net-centric vision– Expected to be more scalable than traditional integration

technologies– Expected to reduce cost of information integration within

enterprise and across organizational boundaries

• Integrate business processes without requiringeveryone to conform to monolithic formats andinterfaces (service does the transforming)

Unit 8 - 44 -



A CautionSOA by itself cannot solve your businessproblem!– You must understand your business and be able to

characterize a solution before SOA can help you– SOA services provide mechanisms to implement solutions

that exist notionally– SOA links needs and capabilities in a flexible and

reconfigurable way– A well-designed SOA is built around small, modular, core

capabilities that are common across multiple processes

Unit 8 - 45 -



P-F-B Triangle• Web services implementation of SOA is based on triangle:

– Providers publish descriptions in global registry– Consumers search registry to find services that meet needs– Successful match binds consumer to provider, invoking service and

receiving response• Many people think single global registry as sole approach is

not workable– Security issues– Efficiency issues

• More likely evolution path: levelsof registry– Analogy: personal address book,

organization directory, city phonebook, national directory

Source: Ken Laskey

Unit 8 - 46 -



SOA and Decision Support• SOA promises to facilitate interoperability

among distributed systems• Common decision support capabilities can be

packaged as services and accessed via SOA– Model subsystem modules (e.g., optimization; statistical

analysis)– Data access (query and transaction processing)– Data mining

• SOA is an enabling technology for net-centricdecision support

Unit 8 - 47 -



In Summary...

Unit 8 - 48 -



References for Unit 9

Carter, G.M., Murray, M.P., Walker, R.G., and Walker, W.E. BuildingOrganizational Decision Support Systems, Academic Press, 1992.

DeSanctis, G. and Gallupe, B. A foundation for the study of group decisionsupport systems, Management Science 33(5), May 1987.

Janis, I.L. Victims of Groupthink. Houghton Mifflin, 1972.OASIS Reference Model for Service Oriented Architecture http://www.oasis-

open.org/committees/download.php/19679/soa-rm-cs.pdfLax, D.A. and Sebenius, J.K. The Manager as Negotiator. Unpublished

manuscript, 1984. (probably has been published as book by now)Power, D.J., Decision Support Systems Hyperbook, accessed November, 2006

at http://dssresources.com.Watson, R.T., DeSanctis, G., and Poole, M.S., Using a GDSS to Facilitate Group

Consensus: Some Intended and Unintended Consequences. MISQuarterly, 12(2), pp. 463-477, 1988.

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