SYNERGY FX FOREX MARKET ANALYSIS BY TODD DEITERICH | 27.07.15

Will US Durables Get A Lift From Boeing Orders The FX market week got off to a cracking start as stops were run above 1.1050 in the EUR/USD on the back of a slightly better German IFO report. The sharp move on the factional improvement underscores the potential for wide price swings this week as the global economic calendar is loaded with first tier data. Aside from the US FOMC and GDP announcements on Thursday, today's US Durable Goods data will draw interest from holiday thinned FX desks. The consensus forecast is for a rebound in both core and headline from last month's surprise contraction. Some analysts are calling for a headline number as high as 3.5% as Boeing aircraft orders jumped from 11 in May to 161 in June. In addition, last week's firm manufacturing PMI data points to a positive order stream for non-aircraft and non-defence data in the core report and better overall growth. The Durable Goods aggregates can be a volatile series. However, an "as expected" or better report will likely support the general USD theme into the more interest rate sensitive data later in the week. As such, longer-term traders can look to add to short EUR/USD positions on a break back through the 1.1025 level for an intra-day target of 1.0960. A close above 1.1090 gives scope to a period of consolidation into the latter part of the week before resuming lower. The AUD/USD posted a sharp intraday reversal on Friday which now targets key support at .7200 (see chart). The .7325 area looks to cap on the daily chart so short-term traders can look to sell at .7315 for a .7215 target later in the week with a .7370 stop. The sharp selloff in Asian stock markets today isn't giving the USD/JPY any fundamental support but the technical picture remains positive above the 30 day moving average at 123.20. Synergy FX suggests buying the pair on strength and prefer to add to long positions on a break back above 123.65 for an initial target of 124.85. The technical picture in the GBP/USD is still mixed but the daily parabolic switch point is now at 1.5430. The Sterling has now posted six NY closes below the 30 day moving average so a resolution to the down side looks more likely. With UK GBP data scheduled for tomorrow, there is no clear trade signal.

SYNERGY FX