swiss seismological service zurich stefan wiemer & danijel schorlemmer swiss seismological...

Swiss Seismological Service

Zurich

Stefan Wiemer & Danijel SchorlemmerSwiss Seismological Service

ETH Zurich

Major contributions by:

Edward (Ned) H. Field(USGS)

ZMAP – OpenSHA – OpenSAF?


ZurichOutline

ZMAP – a 10 year old idea/software for seismicity analysis.

OpenSHA: A new concept in Seismic Hazard Assessment.

OpenSAF: Dreaming on …


ZurichZMAP

Developed since 1993 with the intention of providing a GUI based seismicity analysis software. Mostly a research tool.

Described in an Seismological Research Letter article in 2001.

Matlab based, Open Source (about 100.000 lines of codes in ~ 700 scripts).

About 100 – 150 users worldwide, used in about 50 - 70 publications.


ZurichZMAP - capabilities

Standard Tools: Maps, Histograms, cross-sections, Time series etc. Earthquake catalog quality and consistency. Magnitude shifts, completeness, blast contamination, etc. Real-time potential.Rate change analysis, mapping of rate changes in space-time. Significance. b-value analysis, mapping of b as a function of space and time.Aftershock sequence analysis. Time dependent hazard assessment. Stress tensor inversion based on focal mechanism data. Time to failure analysis. Fractal dimension analysis, mapping of D.


Zurich

Rate decrease

Rate increase

z-value


Zurich

• b-values along the SAF: Highly spatially heterogeneous


ZurichExample: Mc after Landers

Completeness in the hours and days after a mainshock is considerably higher. Could this be improved?


Zurich

A

0 1 2 3 4

10

100

A B

B

Mc

Magnitude of Completeness

Example: Spatial variability of Mc

Completeness is temporally and spatially highly heterogeneous.

A detailed Mc(x,y,z,t) history should be constructed, maintained by the networks?


Zurich

1980 - 1990

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Magnitude

rate

/yea

r 1995 - 2000

Example: Parkfield magnitude shift?

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

2000

4000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 20050

1000

Time

Cum

ulat

ive

Num

ber All

0 < M < 1

What happened around 1995 to the catalog of the Parkfield section of the San Andreas fault?

Catalogs should be monitored routinely in the future to detect man-made (and natural) transients early on.


ZurichZMAP – what worked well

Matlab based: Efficient development, expandable, widely available, largely platform independent.

Addresses a definite need in the seismological community.

Nice research tool for those who know how to use it.


ZurichZMAP – limitations

Too complex. Not stable enough. No systematic users support (lately: Very limited support). No dedicated financial support to develop and maintain the software. Difficult to embed other codes (wrappers work sort of, e.g., stress tensor inversions). Does not work in parallel mode.


ZurichZMAP – summary

Has reached the end of its lifecycle?

What would a new generation seismicity analysis software do?

Can we make it GRID based? (Simulations can take days to weeks)

Can we make it object oriented?

Creating a Distributed, Community-Modeling Environment

in Support of the Working Group for the Development ofRegional Earthquake Likelihood Models

(RELM)

Edward (Ned) H. Field(USGS)

&

Thomas H. Jordan(USC)

OpenSHA

A Developing, DistributedCommunity-Modeling Environment for

Seismic Hazard Analysis

Design Criteria: open source, web enabled, & object oriented.

Implementation: Java & XML, although the framework is programming-language independent, and some components will be “wrapped” legacy code (e.g., WG99 Fortran code).

Source

+

Attenuation

+

Site

=

Hazard

Seismic Hazard Analysis

(1)Earthquake-Rupture Forecast

Probability in time and space of all M≥5 ruptures

(2) Ground-Motion Model

“AttenuationRelationships”

Fullwaveformmodeling

OpenSHA

Code Development : Ned Field, Sid Hellman, Steve Rock, Nitin Gupta, & Vipin Gupta

SHA Framework: SRL submission (Field, Jordan, & Cornell)

Validation: PEER Working-Group Test Cases

Web Site: http://www.OpenSHA.org

Design Evaluation: SCEC Implementation Interface

IMIM RupRupn,in,i

Intensity-MeasureIntensity-MeasureRelationshipRelationship

Earthquake-Earthquake-RuptureRuptureForecastForecast

Each Source has N

EarthquakeRuptures

Prob(IMT IML) 1 1 Prob(IMT IML,Site | n,iRup ) *Prob( n,iRup ) n1

N ( i)

i1

I

Time Span

Type, LevelType, Level

SourceSourceii

SiteSiteGenerates Rupture

Sources

Probability of occurrence

OpenSHA ObjectsOpenSHA ObjectsDesired output is the probability that something of concern will happen over a specified time span

IMIM RupRupn,in,i



Each Source has N

EarthquakeRuptures


N ( i)

i1

I

Time Span


SourceSourceii


Sources


OpenSHA ObjectsOpenSHA ObjectsIntensity-Measure Type/Level

a specification of what the analyst (e.g., engineer) is worried about

IMIM RupRupn,in,i



Each Source has N

EarthquakeRuptures


N ( i)

i1

I

Time Span


SourceSourceii


Sources


OpenSHA OpenSHA ObjectsObjects

Site & Prob. Eqk Rupture

The two main physical objects used in the analysis

IMIM RupRupn,in,i



Each Source has N

EarthquakeRuptures


N ( i)

i1

I

Time Span


SourceSourceii


Sources


OpenSHA ObjectsOpenSHA ObjectsIntensity-Measure Relationship

One of the major model component (a variety available or being developed).

IMIM RupRupn,in,i



Each Source has N

EarthquakeRuptures


N ( i)

i1

I

Time Span


SourceSourceii


Sources


OpenSHAOpenSHAEqk Rupture Forecast

The other main model components (A variety being developed in RELM).

Hazard Calculation

IntensityIntensityMeasureMeasure

Type & Level

(IMT & IML)

Intensity-Intensity-MeasureMeasure

RelationshipRelationship

List of Supported Intensity-Measure Types

List of Site-RelatedIndependent Parameters


List of AdjustableParameters

SiteSiteLocation

List of Site-Related

Parameters

Web-Based Tools for SHA:Web-Based Tools for SHA:

Prob(IMT≥IML)

TimeSpan

CommunityFault Model

EarthquakeForecast

Fault ActivityDatabase

GPS Data(Velocity Vectors)

HistoricalEarthquake

Catalog

NetworkEarthquake

Catalog

SourceList

TimeSpan

OpenSHA

We want the various models and community databases to reside at their geographically distributed host institutions, and to be run-time accessible over the internet.

This is an absolute requirement for making the community modeling environment both usable and manageable.

OpenSHA

1) The distributed system must be easy to use, which means hiding details as much as possible.

2) Analysis results must be reproducible, which means something has to keep track of all those details.

3) Computations must be fast, as web-based users aren’t going to want to wait an hour for a hazard map or synthetic seismograms.

4) We’ll need a mechanism for preventing erroneous results due to unwitting users plugging together inappropriate components.

Building this distributed, community-modeling environment raises several issues that we don’t presently know how to deal with:

The SCEC ITR collaboration is helping:

(a few examples and lots of $$$$$)

Grid Computing:

To enable run-time access to whatever high performance computing resources are available at that moment.

This will help reduce the time to generate a hazard map, or a synthetic seismogram, from hours to (hopefully) seconds.

Knowledge Representation and Reasoning (KR&R):

To keep track of the relationships among components, and to monitor the construction of computational pathways to ensure that compatible elements are plugged together.


(a few examples)

KR&R and Digital Libraries:

To enable smart eDatabase inquiries

(e.g., so code can construct an appropriate probability model for a fault based on the latest information found in the fault activity database).


(a few examples)

Digital Libraries:

To enable version tracking for purposes of reproducibility in an environment of continually evolving models and databases.


(a few examples)

OpenSHA

A Community-Modeling Environment for Seismic Hazard Analysis

1) An infrastructure for developing and testing arbitrarily complex (physics based; system level) SHA components, while putting minimal constraints on (or additional work for) the scientists developing the models.

2) Provides a means for the user community to apply the most advanced models to practical problems (which they cannot presently do).

(summary)

OpenSHA

More info available at:

http://www.OpenSHA.org

including exact object definitions and a library of Java classes that others might find useful

http://www.OpenSHA.org/

Back to good old Europe…

• What can we learn from OpenSHA for ZMAP?


ZurichNERIS offered an opportunity

N6 - Task B. Building the foundation for a community based Seismicity Analysis Framework (OpenSAF).

The information contained in modern earthquake data sets is currently exploited by seismologists using a variety of independent tools (e.g., SSLib, ZMAP, Wizmap, GMT, Slick, Coulomb 2.2) which have no interoperability or standardization. Better and more efficient exploitation of this information requires integrating set of modern, interactive, easy-to-use and accessible tools for visualization, quality assessment, data mining, statistical modeling, quantitative hypothesis evaluation and many other tasks. Such integration could be provided by a seismic data analysis framework (OpenSAF) - a centralized, Internet ready platform for accessing visualization and analysis tools. OpenSAF would be designed to interoperate closely with OpenSHA.


Zurich

I learned: I am more objective-oriented, not object-oriented.

Developing OpenSAF in Java (or similar) would, in our opinion, be a laudable objective; however, it would require a sustained effort and significant financial support. Is it worth it in this case? Or should we stick to a high level language?

Where could the support come from? How can one make it a community-supported, sustainable effort?

The Future


Zurich

The alternative might be a new, modular, Matlab based research program that avoids the mistakes of the old ZMAP, and the ability to build stand-alone, streamlined modules for specific tasks (monitoring of completeness, rate changes, artifacts …). A ‘license fee’ from users that raises about 1 man-year might be feasible.

The Future

The End

swiss seismological service zurich stefan wiemer & danijel schorlemmer swiss seismological...

Documents

failure analysis

bvalue analysis

rate change analysis

zmap limitations

zmap summary

aftershock sequence

fractal dimension analysis

ned field