Sustaining Lakes in a Changing Environment - SLICE Outcomes of Drivers More runoff flow, sediment, nutrient loading (indicators) Longer growing seasons Warmer waters Wet-dry fluxes (evaporation & precip) Exotic species invasions Result: Warmer, more productive waters Eutrophication Declining resiliency of clear-water regime Resilient: turbid-water; no macrophytes Resilient: Clear-water; macrophytes Scheffer and Carpenter 2003 Ecosystem State Need 1: monitoring stressors and habitat conditions Consequences on Fish Fish & disturbance Fish-based IBI For > 60% For Ag & For Ag, For & Urban Ag Urban Drake and Valley 2005 Need 2: Monitoring fish population and community indicators Need 3: Going beyond documenting the decline Predictive modeling of consequences of alternative scenarios on habitat and fish Strategy to meet needs A focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies Designing a collaborative long-term monitoring program (SLICE) 4-yr pilot to: Identify sensitive habitat and fish indicators Identify important stressor-habitat-fish links and mechanisms Build partnerships 1.Retrospective analysis of fish and habitat status of 24 sentinel lakes 2.Simulation modeling to forecast outcomes of alternative climate and land use changes on fish habitat and fish 3.ID set of habitat and fish indicators most responsive to climate and land use change. 4.Design of SLICE (e.g., approp. Sampling frequency, split- panel design) Sentinel Lakes Pilot - Objectives Sentinel Lake Selection Criteria: Ecoregion (4) Mixing Status (Stratified and Unstratified) Total Phosphorus (Low, Med, High Ecoregion specific) Additional criteria inc. good historical data sets (e.g. PCA ref lakes, sediment cores, lake level monitoring), or partnership opportunities Fisheries Area Workloads considered What were collecting Monthly water quality profiles (TP, TN, Chl a, ions, temp/DO - PCA) Secchi & Lake level Citizens Monthly Zooplankton PCA & DNR Annual aquatic plant surveys DNR Annual fish surveys - DNR Split-Panel Design = Panel or Group of Lakes Year Split-Panel Design = Panel or Group of Lakes Year Sentinel lakes Monitoring will be intensive Split-Panel Design Year Random surveys To work into Fisheries Lake Survey Program Monitoring fewer indicators in more lakes Approach is extensive = Panel or Group of Lakes How lake associations can get involved CLMP Lake level monitoring Financing ongoing water chemistry testing (profiles) Temp/DO monitoring Shoreline development monitoring (protocols being developed by DNR)