sustainble ethanol - bioenergy€¦ · ford galaxy ford s-max ford c-max renault laguna citroen c4...
TRANSCRIPT
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Sustainble Ethanol
What is the context?
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End of oilfuture for…for transports?
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EU report on Security of Supply
Dependency on Oil Imports 70%2020 90%!
Transport sector´sdependency on Oil 97%!Dependency on transports Growing
Source: European Commission
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Global development of Light-duty Vehicles
Source: WBCSD, 2004a.
2007
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-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000Population (million)
Emis
sion
s (to
n ca
rbon
per
cap
ita)
USA
Canada, Australia, New Zealand
JapanOECD Europe
Russia
Other EIT
China
Middle East
IndiaOther Asia AfricaLatin America
World Average
Carbon emissions per capita
8 billion people !
250 Kg C/capita
Source: Chalmers2004-10-02/LN
Industrial world
Developing world
Max 2 billion ton C/yr
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How much Gasoline- Diesel /capita?• 250 Kg of Carbon/Capita/year …..• ….equals to 850 Kg of CO2• Assuming 35% of CO2 emissions from transports (today 22%)
• Leaves 300 Kg of CO2 for transports/capita/year• 50% is commercial => 150 Kg CO2 for private use• 150 Kg of CO2 =
60 litres of Gasoline/year54 litres of Diesel/year
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-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000Population (million)
Emis
sion
s (to
n ca
rbon
per
cap
ita)
USA
Canada, Australia, New Zealand
JapanOECD Europe
Russia
Other EIT
China
Middle East
IndiaOther Asia AfricaLatin America
World Average
Carbon emissions per capita, 2050
2 billion ton C/yr
8 billion people250 Kg C/capita
Source: Chalmers2004-10-02/LN
Industrial world
Developing world
One litre of fossil gasoline/diesel /week
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The challenge!
CO2 & Oil Dependency80-90% reduction of CO2 to 2050!Transports needs special attentionMagnitude of a paradigm/system shiftWe are not doing enough, fast enoughUrgency for serious action!
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What to do with transports?Oil Dependency & Fossil CO2
1. Curb the growth for transports, decoupling
2. Increase energy efficiency, dramatically
3. Large systems shift towards renewable fuels
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What role for BioFuels?
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OECD/IEAwww.iea.org/books
BioFuels for Transport: A Global Perspective
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Three key messages OECD/IEA• Biomass potential
• Global potential for biomass can be sufficient for >2/3 of current global demand for transport energy
• CO2 reduction• Cellulose based ethanol and synthesis gas has the potential to
reduce 90-100% of fossil CO2 “Well-to-Wheel” . • Sugarcane based ethanol provides already 85% net CO2 reduction
• Cost efficient• Cellulose based ethanol and synthesis gas can be as cost efficient
as any other major alternative to mitigate fossil CO2.• Sugarcane based ethanol is already cheaper then world market
priced gasoline. Negative CO2 mitigation cost
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McKinsey 2007
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Biofuels for Transport: Global Potential and Implications for Energy and Agriculture.
www.worldwatch.org
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McKinsey/Vattenfall study
FUEL EFFICIENT VEHICLES
FUEL EFFICIENTCOMMERCIAL VEHICLES
SUGARCANE ETHANOL
CELLULOSIC ETHANOL
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How do we develop large scale systems of energy efficient vehicles using
Sustainable BioFuels?
2005-04-11/LN
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Sweden A biofuel nation
Sweden shall be free from oil dependency by 2020!Primeminister Göran PerssonNovember 5, 2005
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Sweden year ?• 5 million cars• 1600 liter/year
Grain 2000l/ha 4.000.000 haSugarcane 8000l/ha 1.000.000 ha
+ Sugarcane + cellulose bagass 12000l/ha 650.000 ha + Todays hybrids 0,7l/10km 450.000 ha+ Plug-in hybrids 0,3l/10km 200.000 ha
8 Million m3 ethanol/year
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FlexiFuel in Sweden
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Ford
on
2005-03-04/LN
25% of total sales
2008
35% of total sales
2009
12% of total sales
2007
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FlexiFuel share of offerings..
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007
Volvo V50
Saab 9-5
Ford Focus
ca 12%ca 12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007
Volvo V50
Saab 9-5
Ford Focus
ca 12%ca 12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
2007 2008
Seat LeonPeugote 407Peugeot 308Mazda 6Mazda 5Ford GalaxyFord S-MaxFord C-MaxRenault LagunaCitroen C4Renault TwingoVW JettaVolvo C30Renault MeganeSkoda OctaviaAudi A3Peugeot 307VW GolfSaab 9-3Volvo V70Volvo V50/S40Saab 9-5Ford Focus
ca 12%ca 12%
> 50%> 50%
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It took ten years to open the first 100 filling stations with E85.
The last 100 stations opened in the past three months.
A dynamic development
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E85 - Års volym
0
50 000 000
100 000 000
150 000 000
200 000 000
250 000 000
300 000 000
jan-06
mar-06
maj-06
jul-06
sep-06
nov-06
jan-07
mar-07
maj-07
jul-07
sep-07
nov-07
jan-08
mar-08
maj-08
jul-08
sep-08
nov-08
jan-09
mar-09
maj-09
jul-09
Månad
Lite
r
>75% fills up with E85!
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E85 - Års volym
0
50 000 000
100 000 000
150 000 000
200 000 000
250 000 000
300 000 000
jan-06mar-0
6maj-0
6jul-0
6sep-06nov-0
6jan-07mar-0
7maj-0
7jul-0
7sep-07nov-0
7jan-08mar-0
8maj-0
8jul-0
8sep-08nov-0
8jan-09mar-0
9maj-0
9jul-0
9
Månad
Lite
r
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World´s First E100 Hybrid(Plug In)
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Volvo "ReCharge Concept"Limited range on electricity +FlexiFuel engine for BioEthanol
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CO2 emissions from road transports in Sweden
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
GoodsPersonTotal
Compared to emissions in 1990Goods = 4,0 MtonsPerson = 13,0 MtonsSource: SIKA
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From1986, Stockholm: no new purchases of diesel buses
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Euro 5 and EEV ethanol engine Highly efficient diesel combustion9-litre diesel engine
Scania EGR270 hp, 1200 Nm
Thermal efficiencyEthanol up to 43%Diesel up to 44%
Proven technology600 buses sold since 1989
Up to 90% COUp to 90% CO22 --savingsaving
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Buses and trucks on 95% ethanol
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2004-01-08/KS
Electric Hybrid on BioEthanolElectric Hybrid on BioEthanol10 buses in 2008 10 buses in 2008
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Ethanol for heavy vehicles
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Infrastructure England Stage 1
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McKinsey 2007
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Ethanol pilote plant
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Total Accumulated Operating Hours Jan 2008
Ackumulerad drifttid i timmar
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
2005
0120
0502
2005
0320
0504
2005
0520
0506
2005
0720
0508
2005
0920
0510
2005
1120
0512
2006
0120
0602
2006
0320
0604
2006
0520
0606
2006
0720
0608
2006
0920
0610
2006
1120
0612
2007
0120
0702
2007
0320
0704
2007
0520
0706
2007
0720
0708
2007
0920
0710
2007
1120
0712
2008
01
Production record559h in one monthMore than 11 000 h
of operation experiences
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Development is biggest when it feels toughest!
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Operating efficiency in pilot plant
Drifttid
0
5
10
15
20
25
200708 200709 200710 200711 200712 200801
Dygn
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
%
Drifttid% drift av planerad
Ope
ratio
n in
day
spe
r mon
th
% o
f pla
nned
oper
atio
n
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Ethanol
Solid biofuels
Biogas
Energy balance in a BioRefinery integration with CHP
Woodchips1)
EthanolEthanol factoryfactory//CHPCHP
1) Based on soft wood
El/heat
Totalefficiency75- 80 %
Process energy & losses20-25 %
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Ethanol
Solid fuels
Biogas
Energy balance for ethanol production from bagasse
Bagasse(100 % DS)
EthanolEthanol plantplant-- bagassebagasse cellulosecellulose
IntegratedIntegrated with with CHP plantCHP plant
Energy losses(including processenergy for ethanolplant) Energy efficiency
~80 %
Heat/ powerAlt. sold as solid fuel or refined
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Nordiccountries
Ca 75% of the coniferous forests
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Canada Russia USA(Alaska)
Norway Finland Sweden
22 73 > 1 5
Percent of Boreal forests
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Corn 3.000+ stover +1.500 4.500
Wheat 2.000+ straw +1.000 3.000
Sugarcane 8.000+ bagasse +4.000 12.000
Feedstock Litre ethanol per ha/year+ cellulose
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SEKAB will market and deliver the cellulose technology worldwide
Different locations and feedstock requires different technical- and business solutions.
Wood, Bagasse,
Sweet sorghum
Wood, Sweet
sorghum
Wood
Wood
BagasseWood, Bagasse
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GRAIN SUGAR CANE →CELLULOSE BIOMASS
Cellulose Industrial Development Plant START 2011
Sugarcane Today
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Sugarcane ethanol, a driver!Ethanol export from Brazil to Europa,
Swedish share
0
100 000
200 000
300 000
400 000
500 000
600 000
700 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
cbm
40 %32 %
42 %
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BioEnergi Potential 2050 Different scenarios
434111
137
North AmericaJapan
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39
W.Europe0 1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
Oceania
1560
100125
E.Europe1 8 14 17
East Asia10
21
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253315
46
268
111 136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
434111
137
North AmericaJapan
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39
W.Europe0 1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
Oceania
1560
100125
E.Europe1 8 14 17
East Asia10
21
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253315
46
268
111 136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
Sou
rce:
Sm
eets
, Faa
ij 20
04
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Ethanol tradingSECTION 5: SEKAB BUSINESS AREAS
Sustainable low-cost ethanol supply
4000
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Comprehensive strategy
• Green & Efficient Vehicles
• Cellulose based BioFuels
• AID Trade
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BioEnergi Potential 2050 Different scenarios
434111
137
North AmericaJapan
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39
W.Europe0 1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
Oceania
1560
100125
E.Europe1 8 14 17
East Asia10
21
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253315
46
268
111 136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
434111
137
North AmericaJapan
0 0 0 0
Near East & North Africa
1 2 32 39
W.Europe0 1432 40
harves ting res idues
bioenergy crops
Oceania
1560
100125
E.Europe1 8 14 17
East Asia10
21
178221
410
sub-SaharanAfrica
41
149
331
Caribean &Latin America
178
253315
46
268
111 136
CIS & Baltic States
South Asia
1421
2124
Sou
rce:
Sm
eets
, Faa
ij 20
04
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Africa :- Highest vulnerability for expensive oil- Contributed least to Climate change- To pay the highest price for climate change
+ Best natural conditions, photosynthesis+ Surplus land with water+ Gigantic need for social- & economical development+ Available labour force+ Potential platform for large scale exports
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TANZANIA
MOZAMBIQUE
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% of arable land in Tanzania for other purposes = 88.6%
Land increment for National Platform =
11,1%
Domestic Market100% substitution
of Gasoline = 0,3%
Substituting 100% of domestic gasoline and diesel would take 1-2%* of arable land!
•Assumptions:
20% of the country as arable land
Productivity is 8,000 Lts/hectare.year
National platform = 2,000,000 hectares
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Challenge!It has to be done with sustainable practices!
Ecologically & Socially
A great opportunity for global impact!
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The world 2050• 1,5 Billion cars• 1600 liter/year
Grain 2000l/ha 1.200.000.000 haSugarcane 8000l/ha 300.000.000 ha
+ Sugarcane + cellulose bagass 12000l/ha 200.000.000 ha + Todays hybrids 0,7l/10km 140.000.000 ha+ Plug-in hybrids 0,3l/10km 60.000.000 ha
2400 Million m3 ethanol/year
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The world 2050• 1,5 Billion cars• 1600 liter/year
Grain 2000l/ha 1.200.000.000 haSugarcane 8000l/ha 300.000.000 ha
+ Sugarcane + cellulose bagass 12000l/ha 200.000.000 ha + Todays hybrids 0,7l/10km 140.000.000 ha+ Plug-in hybrids 0,3l/10km 60.000.000 ha
700 Million m3 ethanol/year
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15 december 2007
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Sustainble ethanol is the next challenge!
SEKAB imports from Brazil
-100 000200 000300 000400 000500 000600 000700 000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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• Can be done Wrong!• Can be done Right • Difference between
BioFuels & BioFuels• Difference between
Operators & Operators
BioFuels are very controversial
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Swedish Brazilian
Sustainable Ethanol Initiative
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The Background
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Etanolens Slavar24 juni 2007
’Nästan en tredjedel av den etanolen vi förbrukar importeras från Brasilien där etanol framställs av sockerrör. GP:s Henrik Jönsson och Anders Kristensson gav sig ut i hettan på de brasilianska fälten. De möttes av pressade ackordsarbetare som för hand hugger tolv ton sockerrör om dagen.’
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’I den koleldade fabriken norr om São Paulo bränns etanol i gryningen. Bredvid vaknar sockerrörsarbetarna till en ny slitsam dag på fälten.’
Bakom ren etanol finns en SMUTSIG produktion9 december 2007
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The Result• Challenge of trust for products and suppliers• Risk for reduced support for further government
supported development• Risk of loosing momentum for market and R&D• EU regulations earliest at 2010-2012!• Swedish market can’t wait –• We need sustainable ethanol today!
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Main PurposeMain purpose of the initiative:
– Enlighten about the difference between Right way and the Wrong way.
– Strengthen or rebuild consumer and societal trust – Move more Brazilian producers towards more
sustainable production and thereby rapidly increase supply of “verified sustainable ethanol”
– Use Sweden as an international example. – “If we can do it, other countries can do it!”
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The Initiative• Provide supply of sustainable ethanol for the E85 & E95 market until
EU regulations or other measures are in place
• Embrace and support the ongoing process in Brazil towards more sustainable and verifiable production
• Influence and accelerate the EU process for sustainability criteria
This will regain consumer trust in the fuel and vehicles using the fuel.
A working model for sustainability in Sweden will likely inspire a similar process in other European countries.
This will result in larger supply of easy accessible volumes of sustainable ethanol at competitive prices.
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The Initiative so far• A bilateral agreement between Sweden and Brazil to accelerate the
process towards sustainable BioFuels. • An agreement between BAFF (BioAlcohol Fuel Foundation) and
UNICA– To drive a process that will move the entire industry in Brazil
towards more sustainable production– To support the introduction and inform the Swedish and
European market of the merits and potentials with sustainable sugarcane ethanol.
• A commercial agreement between SEKAB and progressive producers in Brazil– Joint process developing the criteria – Commitment to request and supply sustainable ethanol that is
verifiable and traceable during the bridge period until there is an established procedure on the market.
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To complete the Initiative• A commercial agreement between SEKAB and partnering
oil companies and other end users. All have been invited!– Supply the end users with sustainable ethanol
for E85 & E95
• A public information initiative– To communicate the bilateral actions Swedish and
Brazilian industry actors have taken in conjunction with local oil companies to assure consumer trust in E85 and E95.
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The Communication Campaign ”Sverige går före. Branschen tar täten.”
• Conference:– Political perspective– Industry organisations– Brazilian producers and EU distributors– Vehicle manufacturers– NGO:s– Researches in BioFuel systems development
• Media advertising campaign• Website – The Sustainable Ethanol Initiative
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Sustainability criteria• Net reduction of fossil CO2 • Mechanical harvesting • Labor rights • Child labor• Environmental protection program • Rain forest
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Verification & Traceability• Monitoring and verification of the criteria’s shall be done
through audits by an independent third party• Non compliance
– Minor Non Compliance– Major Non Compliance
• Reasons for braking of purchasing contract?• Full traceability of all physical flows
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Ethanol Chain of Logistics
Sugarcane field Harvesting Transport to factory Ethanol and energy production
Transport to harbour depot
Harbour depot in Brazil
Transport to Europe
Reloading in Europe depot
Transport to Sweden
Sweden depot Transport to outlet
Verified Sustainability Criteria's
Traceability through the entire Chain of Logistics
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E85 - Års volym
0
50 000 000
100 000 000
150 000 000
200 000 000
250 000 000
300 000 000
jan-06mar-0
6maj-0
6jul-0
6sep-06nov-0
6jan-07mar-0
7maj-0
7jul-0
7sep-07nov-0
7jan-08mar-0
8maj-0
8jul-0
8sep-08nov-0
8jan-09mar-0
9maj-0
9jul-0
9
Månad
Lite
r
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E85 - Års volym
0
50 000 000
100 000 000
150 000 000
200 000 000
250 000 000
300 000 000
jan-06mar-0
6maj-0
6jul-0
6sep-06nov-0
6jan-07mar-0
7maj-0
7jul-0
7sep-07nov-0
7jan-08mar-0
8maj-0
8jul-0
8sep-08nov-0
8jan-09mar-0
9maj-0
9jul-0
9
Månad
Lite
r
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Martin Luther King
Biggest threat to humanity, is not the evil of the bad ones.
It is the passivity of the good ones!
Thank You!