sustainable use and depletion of natural resources: a conceptual framework
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Stephen R. Humphrey - University of Florida. Sustainable Use and Depletion of Natural Resources: a Conceptual Framework. What is an exhaustible natural resource?. All non-renewable resources are exhaustible Amount of stock is usually uncertain or unknowable - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Sustainable Use and Depletion of Natural Resources: a Conceptual Framework
Stephen R. Humphrey - University of Florida
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What is an exhaustible natural resource? All non-renewable resources are exhaustible Amount of stock is usually uncertain or unknowable Depleted when used, but the depletion rate can be managed
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What’s an inexhaustible natural resource? Renewable resources can be used sustainably But only physical-force RRs are truly inexhaustible Biological-force RRs can be used sustainably or unsustainably
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Key insight: don’t confuse stock and flow The supply in “supply and demand” is not a resource stock! Supply is flow, or periodic production from stock Stock is the resource that may be used sustainably or exhausted
Stock
Flow
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Simple Model 1: sustainable use of a renewable resource
It’s crucial to visualize how biophysical & human behavior integrate. Roughly 1-5% harvest is the most biological systems can sustain.
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StockFlow = ProductionPrice in Constant $
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And price is dependable, like a utility, if…
Stock is renewed indefinitely, if…
If flow is constrained so as to not draw down stock
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Corn: sustainable use, disruptive tech
Applies to non-renewable and renewable resources
Mass selection
Mendelian hybrid trait selection
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General Model 2: non-renewable resource with high demand and no substitute
Stock is steadily depleted, flow rises-peaks-drops, and price drops-bottoms-rises; use seems sustainable temporarily
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TechnologicalInnovationPhase
Utility Phase
Depletion or Exhaustion Phase
In this zone, use looks sustainable, but isn’t
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Price phases of the resource development-depletion model for oil
First half of U-shaped price curve, calmed by elastic flow. When flow becomes inelastic, depletion will bring severe economic disruption.
Innovationphase(Moore’s law,cheap revolution)
Utility phase
Event I: US oil production peaked;Arab oil embargo,Iranian revolution,Iran-Iraq War,stagflation
Event II: Demand growth at supply plateau;price rises,thendemanddrops
Competition, combination, monopoly, anti-trust, depression, WW I, WW II, import tariffs & quotas, export controls, price controls, cartel, nationalization
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When will world oil production peak? National Petroleum Council 2007: “Facing hard truths” BP Statistical Review data:
world oil production peaked in 2008 Dr. Sadad Al-Husseini (former Saudi Oil Minister)
capacity outlook: 10-year production plateau Association for the Study of Peak Oil: “2010” Former Shell CEO van der Veer: “2015” International Energy Agency 2008: “trends in energy
supply and consumption are patently unsustainable” UK Energy Research Centre: between 2009 and 2031 Business calls oil crunch a threat to UK economy:
http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-the-report/2010-peak-oil-report/
Opinions vary about the timing, but not about the outcome
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15 divergent forecasts for world oil production, based on either population
demand or geological fundamentals
A bumpy plateau or “practical peak” has begun
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Adding plausible price volatility to the lifecycle of exhaustible oil
Business cycles mask the long-term depletion uptrend.High, volatile prices will cause recessions & defaults!
Demand destruction offers a solution, if we make it happen early.
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TechnologicalInnovationPhase
Utility or Service Phase
Depletion orExhaustionPhase
Demand Destruction
You Are Here
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Global oil “budget” outlook Existing oil fields produce 85m b/day Production is declining by 4m b/day New discoveries are 4m b/day to 2014 Reserve capacity ~6m b/day, mostly in
Middle East, uncertain New deepwater discoveries off Brazil and
Mexico need new technology to produce, 5-10 years in future
How these factors will integrate depends on demand (esp. in developing countries) and reduction of carbon emissions (if any)
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Oil Price Forecast
ML sees demand rising and supply inelastic, spare capacity only in OPEC, with the band widening from $70-$85/b now to $60-$100/b in 2011 and to $50-150/b by 2014.
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Forecasts of Oil Production, 2010
A crash program to adjust to declining oil will take 20 years (Hirsh-SAIC).Current estimates suggest that we have only 5-10 years.
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Good renewable energy substitutes for FLBiofuels Solar
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Are we using other resources sustainably?
Old-growth long-leaf pine. Rock phosphate. Water
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What do you think?
How to prepare our community for resilience to resource constraints?2010 Chevy Volt 1909 Baker Electric