sustainable suburbs: from drivable suburbanism to walkable urbanism

Sustainable SuburbsFrom Drivable Suburbanism toWalkable Urbanism

Jim Houk, ASLA, AICPFebruary 3, 2010

Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 2

Agenda

• How did we get here: Town Planning 101

• Trends: Where do we go from here?

• “Back to the Future”

• Best Practices

• What Can We Do?

• Questions


HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS?


Town Planning 101

Historical City mid 1800’s

Garden City; Ebenezer Howard, 1902Radiant City; Le Corbusier, 1922

Farm City, c. 1800

The American Dream: “40 acres and a mule.”


How We Got Here

• 1939 World’s Fair “Futurama”The wondrous world of 1960

The “new American Dream”


Levittown, 1948

The First Mall: Southdale, Minnesota, 1956


Industrial Economy• 1970: 30-40% off all jobs in the U.S. were

associated with building the car or things associated with the car


Suburban Sprawl?


• 30% of all developed land in the U.S. was developed between 1982 and 2001

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

West South NE MW

UrbanizedLand IncreasePopulationIncrease

Region

% Increase

Population vs. Urban land Growth


• Since 1950, U.S. cities consume gasoline at a rate per capita of 2-1/2 times European and Asian cities

Gigajoules of gasoline used per capita, 1990

0

10

20

30

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60

U.S CitiesAustralian CitiesCanadian CitiesEuropean CitiesAsian Cities

55.8

33.630.9

14.2

6.3


• 40% – 60% of Obesity is caused by a lack of walkability in communities


U.S. and Ohio Population Trends• The U.S. Population will increase by 50% between the

years 2000 and 2050

• Between now and 2030, over 570,000 new residents will join the Columbus metro area

• Over 110,000 current housing units will need to be replaced

• We will also be creating a new phenomena: suburban S.F. slums with homes <5 years old,

Where Do We Go From Here?

35 -40 % of all suburban s.f. mort

Is it time for a new way of thinking?


OvercomingThe FearOf Change

The problems we have created cannot be solved with the same thinking that created them…


Thinking Differently


Thinking Differently“…the possible benefits of

required seatbelts would not justify the costs to the manufacturers and the public.”

National Highway Traffic Safety Administration1970


Changes in People• The most significant trend in the US is the

growing amount of the national population that is 65 years or older.

• 2000 Census Data: 12% of population is 65 or older

• By 2030: To be more than 20% (71.4 million Americans)

• This affects everything!• Uses of space• Distribution of wealth• Transportation (drive fewer miles, public

transportation…)• Public services • Dependency on public programs


Baby Boomers• Born 1946-1964, 28% of the population• Mostly in the suburbs• Highest Median Incomes• Excessive spending on themselves

rather than future generations• Becoming empty nesters• Age Denial• Looking for changes in housing needs• 1 to 2 person households


Generation X’ers• Born 1965-1976, “baby bust”, 48

million• Reject status and social climbing• Consumer and media savvy• Credited with revitalizing downtown

areas• This is the first generation to

abandon suburban living and return to the cities.


Generation Y – The Millennials• Born 1977-1990 to 2000; 70

million• Simpler Living• Looking for rental in urban

environment• Not tied to jobs - Flexible• Want good design• Higher Percentage of 1 to 2

people households• More focused on health and

environment


CONCLUSIONS?

• 50% of Households in 1950s w/ children• 30% of Households w/ children today,67%

without• ONLY 14% of new households over next 20

years will have children; 86% without• What product are we building? • Will it be what the market wants?The market wants more options.


Survey Says…

• Common Ground• trend away from “drivable suburbanism” to

“walkable urbanism”

• More densely developed areas are ‘desirable’…

• Consists of shops, offices, services, housing units all mixed together (Mixed-Use)

• Walkability is strongly associated with higher housing values in nearly all (US) metropolitan areas

• Focus on Entertainment• Parks, public space are very important• Focus recreation and exercise…• Cool places to live and work


Change in Business• The good news…• Ohio Growth Sectors over the last 10 years are:• Entertainment• Dining and lodging• Health care and social assistance• Services – professional, technical, other…

• The bad news… Central Ohio has lost 17% of all retail jobs since 2001…


Change in Business

• Other trend tidbits affecting the ‘biz-world’…

• 80% of all companies are smaller than 20 people

• Office condominiums gaining popularity

• Efficient and integrated uses of buildings and land

• Walkable environment• Flexible space• Technology based• Cool space


Changes in Education• Our Third Wave: ‘The Knowledge

Economy’

• Over one billion users of the internet with a growth rate of 15% per MONTH…

• 60% of the school age kids will be working in future jobs yet to be created

• Focusing on creative workers and leaders

• Successful communities will be those that place a premium on cultural, ethnic, and artistic creativity


Changes in Shopping• Retail sales have grown only four percent

in the past 10 years (down over 50% over the last year)

• Internet sales have grown by 20 percent• Consolidation among department stores

(downsizing and advertising to a larger regional radius)

• Many “big box” developments have closed

• The pool of retail tenants who might anchor new malls has reduced by 50%

• Targeted selling on narrowly defined segmented of the population

EthnicAgeSocial goals (‘made from recycled materials’)


Changes in Shopping

• Lifestyle retailing or “Lifestyle Centers”

Shopping/EntertainmentEnhanced pedestrian amenitiesLandscapingOutdoor diningQuality Architecture/Scale

The Town Center ExperienceThe Mall


Market Opportunities• Trending toward job and housing cluster in Town

Center districts to take advantage of infrastructure (…utility, roads, etc.)

• To create ‘urban’ walkable places (parks and public space as the spine that connects everything to everything else)

• Opportunity for entertainment, cultural and recreational activity, people crave social interaction…

• Retail/Office focuses on “Town Center”atmosphere (begins to feed itself)

• Attract small merchants that focus on providing ‘personal-touch’ service and atmosphere that is unique

• THE MARKET WANTS MORE OPTIONS!


Where do we go from here?

RETAIL

+ OFFICE

+ RESIDENTIAL

+ PUBLIC SPACE

= MIXED-USE


Future Office Development Trends

• The best and the brightest thrive in lively, mixed-use settings (attracts the best and brightest talent)

• Latest technology trumps biggest office in brave new corporate world

• Savvy employers offer flexibility to boost work productivity

• Medical office segments shines as boomers age

• Communities strategically deploy resources to attract targeted industry clusters (incentives)

• Cities chase economic development ever more vigorously (direct competition with other surrounding communities)


Future Retail Development Trends

• Retail vacancies in Ohio remain above national average

• The Fall of the Mall

• Developers look past demographics to tap into “lifestyles”

• “Mixed-Use” is now first choice instead of fallback option

• Retail economy shifts toward service industry

• Communities throughout state revitalize downtowns to preserve their history, culture, sense of place… through retail… (incomplete answer)


Future Housing Trends• Problems in suburban single family sector impact overall housing

industry in Ohio

• 40% of suburban Single-Family mortgages will be upside-down in the next year

• Suburban sprawl threatens Ohio’s way of life

• Homes within walkable distance to mixed-use urban areas will maintain the highest value

• Multifamily / Rental craze sweeps urban areas, including downtowns

• Boomers become (gasp!) seniors

• What women really want…

• Today’s renters are tomorrow’s owners

• “Gray” Power

• Diversity is community’s middle name

• Public policy leverages private investments in housing stock

Best Practices In Suburbia


Best Practices In Suburbia

• “Redevelopment of Core Town Centers• Suburban Mall / Big Box Redevelopment• Greenfield Development


Suburban Core Redevelopment Gahanna Creekside, Gahanna, OH


Suburban Core Development Gahanna Vision Plan, Gahanna, OH


Suburban Core RedevelopmentBridge and High Streets, Dublin, OH


Suburban Mall RedevelopmentMizner Park, Boca Raton, FL


Suburban RedevelopmentMizner Park, Boca Raton, FL


Suburban Mall RedevelopmentNorthland Mall, Columbus, OH


Suburban Mall RedevelopmentSalem Mall, Trotwood, OH


Greenfield DevelopmentEaston Town Center, Columbus, OH


Greenfield DevelopmentSaxony, Fishers, IN


Greenfield DevelopmentJerome Village, Union County, OH


So how do we create “sustainable suburbs” ?


Sustainable Suburbs…

…Accommodate all Users and Citizens and Attract the Best Talent.


Sustainable Suburbs Have…

… A Mix of Uses :

Live, Work, and Play.


Sustainable Suburbs Have…

…A Mix of Residential Densities & Economic Price

Points.



…Promote Higher density in Special Districts.



…Create great public spaces and event to connect their citizens.


Sustainable Suburbs Have……Multi‐Modal Networks and well designed

transportation systems.


Sustainable Suburbs Contain……Active, Healthy

Connective Systems.


Sustainable Suburbs Promote…

…Green Initiatives in our Public Spaces

and in our Industries.



…Plan and Vision their future.


People / Lifestyle

Planet

Suburban Sustainability

Economy / Prosperity

sustainable suburbs: from drivable suburbanism to walkable urbanism

Design

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communitiessustainable

questionssustainable

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