sustainable resource management trends, visions and the role … · 2014-09-08 · 2 september 2010...

1

Sustainable Resource ManagementTrends, Visions and the Role of Recycling

Dr. Stefan Bringezu

Director

Material Flows and Resource

Management

Wuppertal Institute

Member of the International

Panel for Sustainable Resource

Management

Presentation

at the DAKOFA Technical Board

Meeting

22 September 2010

Horsens

Denmark

Wuppertal Institute2Stefan BringezuSeptember 2010

Trends of global resource use

Long-term dynamics of the socio-industrial metabolism

Four visions

- Resource efficient and recycling based industries

- Steady stocks society

- Solarized infrastructures

- Balanced bio-economy and bioniconomy

Conclusions

The presentation

2




Four visions





Conclusions


Humans exert major pressures on the environment

GHG

emissions

Mineral

Resource

Flows

Land

Use

Change

AIR

CLIMATE

SOIL

WATER

BIODIVERSITY

Societies

Economies

3

Wuppertal Institute5Stefan Bringezu

Growing global resource use

Source: SERI/FoE 2009

*not shown: e.g. in 2000: 50 bill t used plus 95 – 130 bill t unused extraction

Projected increase

of used extraction

from 2000 to 2030:

nearly 2-times

Unused extraction

adds double to

triple amount*

Adopting EU or

USA patterns leads

to 2-5 times global

extraction in 2050

September 2010


Ore grades decline

-> impacts of mining grow

(waste, water, landscapes)

Growing implications of mineral extraction

Source: Mudd 2007, Australia

Foto Edgar Llamoca

4


Total material requirement of the EU is growing

September 2010

0,0

5,0

10,0

15,0

20,0

25,0

30,0

35,0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

TMR domestic

TMR imports

TMR exports

Tonnes per capita

Sources: Wuppertal Institute, Eurostat

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

TMR domestic TMR import TMR export

other (n.e.c.) products

erosion

excavation

metals

minerals

fossil fuels

biomass

Metal resources

dominate trade

The EU increasingly uses

foreign resources


Global land use(109 hectare)

“agriculture“

deserts, glaciers, others

settlements, infrastructures

2050

3.9

4.1grass-

lands

5.0

0.36

2000

1.5crops

1.5arable land

3.5perma-

nent pastures

4.4

1.4

1961

3.1

agric. land:

+ 7% to 31%

cropland

+ 7% to 27%

+ 72% to 118%

+?

- 3% to -23%

-?

Sources: Benedikt-Kemp et al. 2002, MEA 2005, GEO 4, OECD (2008)

September 2010

forests

5


Global trends of population, yields and diet: cropland will

expand for feeding the world with protein rich meals

Source: UN population statistics ; FAO (2003, 2006);

estimates based on Gallagher report 2008

Cereal yieldsCereal yields

60

80

100

120

140

160

2004 2030

In

dex 2

004 =

100

Population

Cropland

Cropland per capita

Cereals yields in

DC

Meat consumption

in DC

Cereal yields

Meat consumption

Global cropland

expands only to

feed the world

Additional demand

for non-food

biomass (fuels,

materials) will

increase the

pressure on

conversion of

grasslands,

savannahs and

forests (in tropics)


Global Land Use for the consumption of Agriculture goods

GLUA – provisional data

September 2010

0,00

0,05

0,10

0,15

0,20

0,25

0,30

0,35

0,40

0,45

0,50

2000 2004 2005 2006 2007

EU27 GLUA

EU27 Domestic agricultural area

World cropland

0

50

100

150

200

250

2000 2004 2005 2006 2007

Net imports

Domestic agricultural area

mill ha

ha/cap

The EU is a net importer

of agricultural land

Source: Wuppertal Institute/

H. Schütz

6


Interim conclusion

Global extraction of mineral resources will grow

Environmental impacts may increase overproportionally

The EU increasingly depends on (net) imports and shifts

related environmental pressure to other regions

Capacities to shift towards non-food

biomass limited by land resources

Product certification cannot control

growing resource demand




Four visions





Conclusions

7


Historical and current features of metabolic

development


Future features of metabolic development Resource efficiency and carbon recycling

8


tonnes

September 2010

Targets for long-term sustainable development of the

whole socio-industrial metabolism of the EU


Monitoring and control of

the "Big Three" essential

Indicators should measure

national (EU) consumption

of global resources

Targets should aim at

absolute levels which allow

more sustainable supply,

e.g.

- 12-13 t* TMCabiot/cap

- 0,2 ha GLUA/cap

in 2050

Priority tasks for resource policiesCross-sectoral challenges I

GHG emissions

(GWP)

Mineral extraction

(TMCabiot)Global land use

(GLUAcropland)

(GLUFforest)

* implying a global return to 2000 levels and equal distribution

9


Cross-sectoral challenge:

Resource productivity

increase (GDP/TMR)

Possible target: doubling

resource productivity from

2010 to 2030

- triggering innovation

- enhancing competitiveness

- lowering import dependance

- reliefing environmental

pressure

Priority tasks for resource policiesCross-sectoral challenges II

0,00

0,10

0,20

0,30

0,40

0,50

0,60

0,70

0,80

0,90

1,00

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2010 2020 2030

Re

so

urc

e P

rod

uc

tivit

y (

Eu

ro p

er

kg

)

GD

P (

trillio

n E

uro

); T

MR

(b

illio

n t

on

ne

s)

TMR

GDP

GDP/TMR

GDP average

growth p.a.

1.5% 2.3% 3.0%

TMR reduction

(2010-30)

35% 27% 20%


Halt expansion of global

cropland

Shelter forests effectively

(REDD etc.)

Sust. production standards

Limit consumption of

(a) agricultural goods

(b) forest based goods

to levels which can be

supplied sust.

(e.g. adjust biofuel quota,

develop comprehensive

biomass strategy)

Priority tasks for resource policies

Sector specific challenges

Biomass

Foster international recycling

(e.g. expand producer

responsibility; covenants)

Metals

Construction minerals

Aggregate tax + programme

for dematerialised

construction

Combine energy and material

efficiency: standard setting +

lighthouse projects

Urban mining

Revisit public investments

10


Instruments analysed for Sustainable Resource Policy

integrating climate, energy, resource conservation

Reporting + Certifiation obligations, networks

September 2010


Recycling may reqire

higher prices for

primary resources

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Prices of industrial commodities & energy, in constant dollars

For 200 years resource prices were falling. Recent price hikes just brought us

back into the lower confidence interval!

2000-2004

September 2010

Wuppertal Institute22Stefan Bringezu26.09.2010

Christian Hagelücken (Umicore): "Even today catalysts

recycling remains an attractive business"

Prices of precious metals for car catalysts are

rather volatile

September 2010

Source: Hagelücken 2009

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Four visions





Conclusions


Resource efficient and

recycling based industries

Steady stocks societies

Solarized infrastructures

Balanced bio-economy

Four visions for a sustainable resource management

Source: CSEM

Source: ETH

Source: Egretta; Thula: C.Croso/FAN

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Balance between de-materialization and re-materialization

Resource light product design

Shift to more services, product-service-systems

Recycling systems

- mining the technosphere ("urban mining")

- diversity of chemical elements -> challenge for separation

technologies after collection

Functional diversity of complex materials and micro/nano

structures based on a common element matrix

- organic materials

- molecular design, nanotech, bionic

Resource efficient and recycling based industry

Characteristics


Meso level: Material system: PGM flows in Europe

PGM flows in EU 25 + Norway + Switzerland in 2004

Source: Mathieu Saurat and Stefan Bringezu

PGMs in glass industry:

• organized in closed

loop

• secondary PGM input

represent ~ 43 % of

European secondary

input

• primary input

represent only 0.5 % of

European primary input

PGMs in car catalysts:

• low recycling rate (~30 %),

mainly due to exports

• expanding car fleet,

growing average cylinder

capacity, stricter emissions

standards

=> The automotive industry

represents 76 % of PGM

primary input to Europe

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1. Proposal: “Good Practice Guidelines” for the collection,

decanning and recycling of automotive catalysts

2. Installation of an international system of redistribution

• Producer responsibility should be strengthened

• Proposal: Self commitment of vehicle producers and/or catalyst

producers:

collection/recycling targets for used catalysts.

• To promote collection: Labelling of catalysts, deposit on catalysts.

3. ELV export guidelines

• EU level: ELV guidelines considering definition used vehicle/ ELV may

consider: in case of concern: certification “vehicle is repairable”.

4. Promote knowledge and technology transfer

• Programmes like EU-Twinning-Programme or

German initiatives, e.g. BMU advisory assistance programme

and export initiative for recycling technologies (RETech).

MaRess 2.2: International PGM Recycling:

A. Measures in the field of car catalysts

Wuppertal Institute37Stefan Bringezu26.09.2010

International measures:

1. Models of an globally extended producer responsibility

2. International WEEE knowledge partnerships

National measures:

1. Improved transparency in the waste streams

2. Export guidelines to prevent illegal waste exports

(instruments for a better differentiation between used products

(legal exports) and waste)

B. Measures in the field of WEEE

September 2010

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The steady stocks society

Characteristics

Dynamic flow equilibrium

- of total technosphere stock (consisting of many durable

product/material stocks)

- concerning artefacts at different locations

Approaching a saturation level of buildings and

infrastructures

- living space per capita

- roads etc.

Shift from adding new constructions to renovation

No net expansion of built-up land (Germany 114 ha/d, 2002-05)

Improving quality of life in heterogenous regions

Growing and shrinking infrastructures

Resource light buildings "Featherweights" (also Vision One)

Recycling and urban mining (- " -)


Shrinking cities: Downsizing of multi-storey buildings in

Stollberg, Germany

Before the partial

deconstruction (above) and

afterwards (below)

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The challenge: mining the technsophere

("urban mining")

Germany: 9 bill. t materials stocked in infrastructures, predominantly in

roads 99% minerals, 1% metals; yearly flows of 170 mill t

Concrete and metal stocks in renewable energy installations already

exceed those in fossil power plants

Inventory of flows and stocks under preparation (MaRess 2.3) for

- transport infrastructures

- energy infrastructures

- water and waste water infrastructures

Lacking: regularly up-dated inventory of materials stocked in

buildings and infrastructures, as basis for decisions by

- local and regional waste management

- construction companies


Modelling steel production and consumption in EU-15:

Recycling proceeds with growing material stocks

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

195

0

196

0

197

0

198

0

199

0

200

0

201

0

202

0

203

0

204

0

205

0

206

0

100

0 ton

nes

(ste

el co

nte

nt)

'new' goods (steel content) going to use (stock)

end-of-life goods arising (steel content)

'Business-as-Usual'

Balance between ‘new’ goods (into stock) and end-of-life goods (out of stock) will be reached in 10-20 years

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

195

0

196

0

197

0

198

0

199

0

200

0

201

0

202

0

203

0

204

0

205

0

206

0

100

0 ton

nes

(ste

el co

nte

nt)

'new' goods (steel content) going to use (stock)

end-of-life goods arising (steel content)

Scenario: 'Eco-efficiency'

Assumption: 0,5% annual decrease of steel in 'new'

goods

Source: Stephan Moll 2005

September 2010

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In-use stocks of engineering metals (kg)(2000-2006)

Source: Graedel et al. 2010

September 2010

MDC: more developed countries

LDC: less developed countries


In-use stocks of precious metals (g)(2000-2006)


September 2010

MDC: more developed countries

LDC: less developed countries

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In-use stocks of speciality metals (g)(2000-2006)


September 2010

MDC: more developed countries, LDC: less developed countries


Biochemical and Thermochemical Conversion of organic

waste

Source: compiled by P. Nuss after Hayes (2009)

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Assessing alternative routes of waste

management (material vs. energy recovery)

Systems analysis with global system boundaries (LCA-type)

Focus on the BIG THREE environmental pressures (GHG, TMR(abiot),

Land use)

System extension

when substitution

effects occur

Source: Nuss (2010)




Four visions





Conclusions

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Conclusions 1/2

Development of policies and business fields may consider in advance

long-term dynamics of the socio-industrial metabolism, such as

decreasing growth of the physical economy (maturation)

Essential future metabolic traits might be carbon recycling and

industrial photosynthesis (mineral based systems)

Material efficiency provides synergies for climate and resource

conservation as well as cost savings in industry

Substitution between materials has limited potential to save

resources, and often entails the risk of problem shifting

Recycling can contribute to real savings of primary resources. Its role

will increase with decreasing physical growth of the technosphere

(steady stocks society largely based on recycling)


Conclusions 2/2

Recycling and waste management can further develop towards a

sustainable resource management business, and contribute to each of

the four visions:

resource efficient and recycling based industry

➢ international take back, collection and recovery (ELV, WEEE etc.)

the steady stocks society

➢ Urban Mining – set up inventories, model future potential

solarised technosphere

➢ Develop collection and recovery of PV etc like for other WEEE

balanced bio-economy and bioniconomy

➢ Use organic waste for (a) carbon recycling and (b) energy recovery

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Many thanks for your attention !

[email protected]

ISBN: 978-1-906093-26-6


Information availability of in-use stocks of

metals


September 2010

sustainable resource management trends, visions and the role … · 2014-09-08 · 2 september 2010...

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