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Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013 Ulf Ranhagen Professor/Architect Sustainable Municipality Project & SymbioCity Approach 2.0 two interconnected Swedish R&D Projects EU Special Sweden Week May 2013 Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013 Sweden Considerable environmental improvements since the Stockholm Environmental Summit 1972 Strong political leadership Economic instruments carbon dioxide taxes energy tax relief on renewables etc Triple helix collaboration Integrated planning

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Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Ulf Ranhagen Professor/Architect

Sustainable Municipality Project &

SymbioCity Approach 2.0 –

two interconnected Swedish R&D Projects

EU Special Sweden Week May 2013

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

SwedenConsiderable environmental improvements since the

Stockholm Environmental Summit 1972

Strong political leadership

Economic instruments – carbon dioxide taxes

energy tax relief on renewables etc

Triple helix collaboration

Integrated planning

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Reduced dependence on oil for heating and

electricity production in Sweden since the 70’s

Source: www.symbiocity.org

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Swedish ”energy hero” – district heating and district cooling

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Successful examples of low-energy and passive buildings

New buildings without heating

systems – Lindås 15kWh/sqm

Renovation of existing apartments

– Brogården, Alingsås

Buildings from 216 kWh/sqm to 85

kWh/sqm

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Hammarby Sjöstad, Stockholm

Gårdsten, GothenburgR&D projects – Institutional exp

Western harbour/Bo 01 Malmö

To gather and apply Swedish knowledge

within sustainable urban development

in an international context

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Stepwise Development of the Swedish SymbioCity Concept

Sustainable City Concept

WWSD Johannesburg 2002

SymbioCity Sustainability by

Sweden

2007-

The Sustainable City Approach – Sida

Manual

2006 -R&D Projects

SymbioCityApproach

2012- (STC /SKL)

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

8

Spatial Planning

An instrument to push on the development of energy

efficient measures in the built environemnt, to take

advantage of reneweble energy and to facilitate

environmental transportation modes

An Arena for active dialogues among all stakeholders

involved in the process

A Tool for illuminating conflicts and syneriges

A Prerequiste for preventation of problems and for an

efficient and sustainable design and implementation

process

The Sustainable Municipality Project (Swedish Energy Agency)

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Planning prevents environmental problems

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

ÖP / FÖP, STRATEGIC EIA/SEA

DP / EIA DEVELOPMENT

STRATEGIC PLANNING

PROGRAMME

DESIGN

TENDERING

CONSTRUCTION

OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE

agreements

REGIONAL PLANNING , STRATEGIC EIA (SEA)

Sustainability

programme

TH

E P

UB

LIC

SE

CT

OR

TH

E P

RIV

AT

E S

EC

TO

R

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Strategy

Impact Assessment

Key issues

Objectives

External factors Internal factorsAnalysis

MINDMAP

BACKCASTING

Strategic choice

SWOT

Structured

BRAINSTORMING

Radar graph

Effect profile

Indicators

MCA

Define and organise the

sustainability review

The term

sustainability

Source: Sustainable Municipality Project. KTH Ulf Ranhagen

Scenarios – Future images - Alternatives

Step 1 Application of a systematic and flexible approach

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 2 Form a cross-sectoral project organisation

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Economic issues

Social issuesEnergy

Environment

TrafficSpatial/Urban

planning

Step 2 Inter- och transdisciplinary collaboration in all phases of planning,

design, construction, implementation and operation

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Participatory Approach – Action-oriented R&D

Step 3 Formulate a schedule and a work plan

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201316

Common workshops with representatives from several

departments

Workshops within a specific department

Step 4 Work in a workshop format – establish a forum for dialogue

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 5 Develop a local interpretation of sustainability

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 5 Develop a local interpretation of sustainability

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Stadsanalys

Urban morphology analysis at workshops and in the detailed

comprehensive plan. Sala municipality

Step 6 Prepare an external and internal conditions analysis for

selcted planning area

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

RESIDENTIAL TOWN

The urban structure (the urban morphology) has large imortance for the

options of achieving an otimal interplay between energu efficiency and

renewable energy supply

Step 6 Prepare an external and internal conditions analysis for

selcted planning area

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

21

Dalsjöfors – annual rings related to urban structures and energy

performance

Step 6 Prepare an external and internal conditions analysis for

selected planning area

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

22

Step 7 Formulate key issues and goals concerning sustainable

development based on step 6 (structured brainstorming)

KEY ISSUES

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Back-casting methodology

VISION

1

2

3

Short term Medium term Long term

Goal level Alternative strategy:

fast-slow

Alternative strategy:

slow-fast

PRESENT

Vision without action is a daydream

Action without vision is a nightmare

Step 8 Develop spatial scenarios

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

24

Concentrated city centre

Widespread city centre

Limited

build-out

of infra

FÖP Ulricehamn scenariomatris

SCENARIOMATRIX – an application of the strategic choice megthodology

Step 8 Develop spatial scenarios

Significant

build-out

of infra

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201325

Step 8 Develop spatial scenarios

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 9 Evaluate future images from a sustainability perspective

Ranking diagramme

Value rose – spider diagramme MCA – multi-criteria analysis

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201327

Hand- and computerdrawn perspective

for illustration of the holistic view but also

energy aspects

Step 10 Develop, presente and visualise a selected future image

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Energi och teknisk försörjningBefintligt

fjärrvärmenät

Graphic representation of the coverage of district heating heating system as a basis for a

discussion of future development of the energy system

1) Further extension 2) local district heating system 3) low energy or passive buildings not

connected with the district heating system

Profound comprehensive plan for the urban centre of Nyköping Municipality Nyköpings

kommun.

Step 11 Conduct a detailed survey of energy and traffic systems

including energy use

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201329

Pilot study in the City of Lund in

southern Sweden

Transect through LUND

analysis of the realtionship

beteween the urban structure

and energy use

(Dr Elisabetta Troglio)

Step 11 Conduct a detailed survey of energy and traffic systems

including energy use

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Heat density map related to

different urban typologies in the

municipality of Ulricehamn

Profound comprehensive

planning for the urban centre

of Ulricehamn

Step 11 Conduct a detailed survey of energy and traffic systems

including energy use

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Micro climate

Heat Density Map in Skellefteå in northern Sweden

Air qualityNoise from energy production

Step 12 Document the microclimate and local environmental effects

of heating/cooling/electricity and transport

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 12 Document the microclimate and local environmental effects

of heating/cooling/electricity and transport – thematic layer analysis

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 13 Appreciate the potential for energy econimisation and

renewable energy supply

Heat pumps

desirable/probable within

15 years perspective

Local dsitrict heating based on biofuels

Individual system based

on biofuel

Oil

Electrictiy from grid

Solar combined with

energy storage

Present situation

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Principles behind the energy scenarios

Step 14 Develop scenarios and future images for

energy and transport

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

FOCUS ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY

FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY SUPPLY

Scenario A : Low energy buildings including passive houses and plus houses

Scenario B : Moderate energy efficiency & partial conversion to renewable energy

Scenario C : District heating from biofuel and or waste to energy

A CB

Step 14 Develop scenarios and future images for

energy and transport

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 15 Develop spatial future images with a focus on energy issues

for heating/cooling/electricity and transport

Profound comprehensive plan for Köpmanholmen in Örnsköldsvik Municipality

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Ulf

Ran

hage

n

Feb

37

Design of energy artefacts (Dr Björn Ekelund)

Power lines passing by an university area

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Jag tycker att kraftledningar

representar något positivt

Jag tycker att kraftledningar

påverkar upplevelsen av

omgivningen negativt

Jag undviker att vistas i närheten

av kraftledningar

Jag tycker att kraftledningar skall

grävas ner i marken

Instämmer inte alls Instämmer till fullo

Generellt Befintlig Förslag

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Representerar för mig teknik

Representerar för mig konst

Representerar för mig nytta

Representerar för mig nöje

Representerar för mig funktion

Representerar för mig form

Instämmer inte alls Instämmer till fullo

Generellt Befintlig Förslag

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Nu A B C

GW

h/å

r Kolkondenskraftverk

Kärnkraft / kolkondens

Dalsjöfors

Carbon dioxide

emissions

ton/year

Enscen –

Dalsjöfors

Borås

Primary energy

GWh/year Koldioxidutsläpp

0

5

10

15

20

Nu A B C

kto

n/å

r

Kolkondensel

Fossila bränslen

A low energy buildings

B Moderate energy efficiency

C District heating – minimum req for

energy efficiency

Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences

of the spatial future images

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

TranScen

Calculation models for planners in

order to estimate total amount of

carbon dioxide emissions for

different transportation scenarios

related to urban plans on different

levels

Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences

of the spatial future images

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Modell för beräkning av energianvändning och koldioxidutsläpp vid olika scenarier (under utveckling) 2011-09-13

Förutsättningar 50 000 resenärer 30 km/pers,dag 1 500 000 pkm/dag Ändra värden i vita rutor!

Nollalternativ

bil buss GC * enligt NTM - Nätverket för Transporter och Miljö, lokaltåg, kapacitet 174 pers

drivmedel bensin diesel ** Ange med hur många procent energianvändningen väntas minska genom teknikutveckling

BV inköp kolkondens *** minskning genom anv. av drivmedel/energislag som ger lägre nettoutsläpp av CO2

fördelning 80% 5% 5% 0% 10% Schablonvärden: etanol för bussar 80%, etanol (E85) 70 %, biogas 95%, RME 60%

medelbeläggning ant pers 1,3 15 61 61

Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.** 0% 0% 0% 0% MWh/dag förändr kg/dag förändr

CO2-minskning, drivmedel*** 0% 0% 0% 0% Nollalternativ 703 197 293

tot energianv., MWh/dag 703 Scenario 1 406 -42% 99 833 -49%

tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 197 293 Scenario 2 429 -39% 112 619 -43%

Scenario 1 resandeförändring 0% 1 500 000 pkm/dag Scenario 3 571 -19% 156 554 -21%

Koll bil buss GC fakta om aktuell kommun - avgränsningar mm

fördelning 30% 25% 25% 0% 20%

medelbeläggning ant pers 1,3 15 61 61

Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.** ange med positivt tal hur stor minskning som är målet

CO2-minskning, drivmedel*** Mål: Energi 60% CO2 80%

tot energianv., MWh/dag 406 -42%

tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 99 833 -49%

Scenario 2 resandeförändring 0% 1 500 000 pkm/dag

GC Distans bil buss GC

fördelning 40% 15% 15% 0% 30%

medelbeläggning ant pers 1,3 15 61 61

Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.**

CO2-minskning, drivmedel***

tot energianv., MWh/dag 429 -39%

tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 112 619 -43%

Scenario 3 resandeförändring 0% 1 500 000 pkm/dag

Miljöbil bil buss GC

fördelning 70% 10% 10% 0% 10%

medelbeläggning ant pers 1,5 15 61 61

Teknikförbättr. energianvändn.**

CO2-minskning, drivmedel***

tot energianv., MWh/dag 571 -19%

tot koldioxidutsläpp, kg/dag 156 554 -21%

el*

spårtrafik

EXEMPEL

spårtrafik

spårtrafik

spårtrafik

Energi CO2

Kollektivtrafik

GCGC

GCGC

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Nollalternativ Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

mål Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3

minskning energi & CO2

energi CO2

Antalet pkm påverkar bara MWh/dag och kg CO2/dag i gula tabellen. De procentuella förändringarna är alltså oberoende av antal pkm i Förutsättningar

Eventuella förändringar av befolkningsmänd redovisas i antagande om resandeförändring.

Synpunkter, förbättringsförslag och exempel på användning

mottages tacksamt

magnussonMiljökonsult och Utbildning AB

0768 237 230

[email protected]

Calculation model based on modal split and other factors

Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences

of the spatial future images

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

nuläge 2030 trolig 2030 mål 2050

utsläpp enl miljömål

kg co2 per dag vid oförändrad bränsleslag

Kg co2 per per dag vid 50% förbättring

Kg co2 per dag vid 80% förbättring

Nuläge

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2

nuläge 2030 trolig 2030 mål 2050

utsläpp enl miljömål

kg co2 per person vid oförändrad

bränsleslag

Kg co2 per person vid 50% förbättring

Kg co2 per person vid 80% förbättring

Nuläge

TRANSCEN Österåker. Achievment of targets on municipal and individual level

Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences

of the spatial future images

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Focus on public

trpt

30/50/20

CO2 present

situation

85/10/5

Focus on

walking&cycling

+ telecommuting

40/30/30

Focus on

environmental cars

70/10/20

> 50% reduced energy use in alla scenrios

75%-95% reduction of carbon dioxide emissions in

all scenarios

Results from use of TRANSCEN tool in the pilot phase

Step 16 Evaluate and Assess the consequences

of the spatial future images

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 17 Document hard and soft measures for

implementing planning measures

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 201344

Steg 18 Develop forms of collaboration between various

actors in all phases (the PBA+)

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Step 17 Document hard and soft measures for

implementing planning measures

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Increased awareness and

change of life-style is a

prerequisite for success in the

energy and climate efforts

A new way bof thining is necessary to solve the problems that we have aroused

by the old way of thinking (A.Einstein)

Step 19 Develop physical and digital arenas for planning,

expereience feed-back and follow-up

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

The ecological footprint should be reduced by 80% for long

term survival

Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring

the planning case

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring

the planning case

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

Sol- na Ving- åker Bo- rås Ulrice- hamn Örnsk- öldsvik

GW

h/å

r

Solvärme

Vindkraft

Vattenkraft

Skogsbränsle

Energiskog på åkermark

Bruttoenergitillförsel idag

8400

Indicators: Estimated potential of renewable energy resources in relation to the

present energy supply (KWh renewables / KWh totalt, ha renewablest/ha total etc)

Source: : Dag Henning, Optensys

Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring

the planning case

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring

the planning case

Ulf Ranhagen, SWECO/ KTH May 2013

Steg 20 Develop a model for implementing and monitoring

the planning case