sustainable fossil fuels: the unusual suspect in the quest for clean and enduring energy
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Sustainable Fossil Fuels: The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy. Mark Jaccard School of Resource and Environmental Management Simon Fraser University Vancouver, Canada January, 2006. Prescription and prediction of a sustainable energy system. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 1
Sustainable Fossil Fuels:
The Unusual Suspect in the Quest for Clean and Enduring Energy
Mark Jaccard
School of Resource and Environmental Management
Simon Fraser UniversityVancouver, Canada
January, 2006
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 2
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Prescription – assume humanity should strive for:– A near-zero-emissions (indoor, urban, regional, global)
energy system with low impacts and risks to land and water
– Expansion of system to meet legitimate energy service needs of the global population
Prediction – given this sustainability prescription:– How will major energy options fare this century and
beyond?
– What might such a system cost?
– How could we achieve it?
Prescription and prediction of a
sustainable energy system
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 3
Motive: a researcher’s reaction to strong
assumptions
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Troubled by many recent books attributing major global problems to fossil fuels – war, economic chaos, environmental harm.
“Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century unless we can find a way to live without fossil fuels.”
(Goodstein, End of the Age of Oil, Norton, 2004).
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 4
What is the energy system?emrgemrg
energy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Nuclear
Fossil fuels
Lighting
Transport of goods
Electrolysis
Industrial- thermal
Space heating and conditioning
Primary energy Energy servicesSecondary energy
Renewables
Personal mobility
Energy efficiency
Hydrogen
Electricity
Electric appliances and equipment
Industrial- mechanical
Industrial- motive-force
HydrocarbonsNuclear
Fossil fuels
Lighting
Transport of goods
Electrolysis
Industrial- thermal
Space heating and conditioning
Primary energy Energy servicesSecondary energy
Renewables
Personal mobility
Energy efficiency
Hydrogen
Electricity
Electric appliances and equipment
Industrial- mechanical
Industrial- motive-force
Hydrocarbons
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 5
Current trendsemrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Fossil Fuels
358 EJ
Ren. Modern
16 EJ
Ren. Trad. 45 EJ
Nuclear 9 EJ
Fossil Fuels 920 EJ
Nuclear90 EJ
Ren. Trad. 90 EJ
Ren. Modern 290 EJ
Total =: 429 EJ 6 GtC/year
Total =: 1,390 EJ >20
GtC/year
2000 2100
Population – 6 billionE/GDP - 13.5MJ/$
Population – 10.5 billionE/GDP – 6 MJ/$
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 6
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Hydrogen30%
Hydrogen or Hydrocarbons
10%
Hydrocarbons30%
Electricity30%
Sustainable secondary energy in 2100?
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 7
Challenges for nuclear and renewables
Nuclear power (risk perception)– Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes)
– Geopolitical risk
Renewables (uncertain costs with scale-up)– Cost declines with R&D and cumulative production
– Cost increases from scale-up related to low energy density, variable output and inconvenient location
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 8
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Energy efficiency trend
0
5
10
15
20
25
1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Year
E/
GD
P (
MJ
/$
19
90
)
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 9
Challenges to accelerating the efficiency trend
Ignored costs of more efficient devices– risks of long-payback and new technologies
– intangible costs of imperfect substitutes
Mega-rebound from energy productivity– direct end-use rebound
– innovation and commercialization rebound
Policy barriers– ineffectiveness of information and subsidies
– political challenge of higher prices and regulation
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 10
Fossil fuels:“the unusual suspect”
How long can they last?– reserves and resources of coal, oil and natural
gas
– substitution between fuels and with other energy
Can we use them cleanly?– history of cleaning up
– new and old challenges – urban, regional, global
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 11
Hubbert’s peak emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 12
What consequence? emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 13
Oil sources and substitutionemrgemrg
energy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 14
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Quantity of gasoline (liters)
$ / liter Conventional oil
Unconventional oil
Coal Biomass
Cost of gasoline
?
?
Quantity of gasoline (liters)
$ / liter Conventional oil
Unconventional oil
Coal Biomass
Cost of gasoline
?
?
Secondary energy prices and primary energy
substitution
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 15
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Zero-emission fossil fuel use
natural gascoal, oil
combustion, reforming, gasification
CO2,etc.
electricity
hydrogen
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 16
Geological storage of CO2 and other
emissions
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Release methane from deep coal
Deep Saline Aquifer
Depleted Oil Reserves
Pipelines
Release methane from deep coal
Deep Saline Aquifer
Depleted Oil Reserves
Pipelines
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 17
Carbon sources and sinksemrgemrg
energy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
0 G tC
1 ,0 00 G tC
2 ,0 00 G tC
3 ,0 00 G tC
4 ,0 00 G tC
5 ,0 00 G tC
6 ,0 00 G tC
C o a l
G a s
O il
Living
PH < 0.3De a d
Fo ssil Fue ls
(reso urc e b a se )
C o nsum p tion
A tmo sp
he re
Te rrestri
a l
b io sp he reAq u ife
rs
O c e a ns
O il & g a s
re se rvo irs
C o a l be d s
Source: David Keith
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 18
Zero-emission fossil fuels energy system
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 19
Criteria for predicting social preferences
Projected cost (synthesis of numerous studies)– Depletion of higher quality resources and sites– Cost reduction through innovation– Cost reduction through greater production
(economies-of-scale and economies-of-learning)
Extreme event risk– Aversion to extreme event risk (focus on outcomes)
Geopolitical risk– Energy supply security and political independence
Path dependence– Not a decision criterion, but a long-term cost factor
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 20
Projected electricity cost
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Zero-emission generation of electricity
(¢/kWh in $US 2000)
Assumed input prices are coal $1.5 – 3/GJ, natural gas $5 – 7/GJ, and biomass $2 – 5/GJ.
2
4
6
8
10
12
(¢/kWh)
coalcombustion
coalgasification
naturalgas
nuclear
hydro
wind + storage
biomass
PV-solar
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 21
Projected hydrogen cost
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Zero-emission production of hydrogen($/GJ in $US 2000)
Assumed input prices are coal $1.5 – 3/GJ, natural gas $5 – 7/GJ, and biomass $2 – 5/GJ. See electricity prices figure for electrolysis.
5
10
15
20
25
($/GJ)
coalgasification
naturalgas
biomassgasification
Nuclear electrolysis of
water
Wind/hydro electrolysis of
water
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 22
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
The challenge for nuclear
The limits for efficiency
Renewables versus zero-emission fossil fuels
Incorporating all criteria
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 23
Primary energy shares in a near-zero-emission
future
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Fossil Fuels
358 EJ
Ren. Modern
16 EJ
Ren. Trad. 45 EJ
Nuclear 9 EJ
Ren. Modern
450
Fossil Fuels 680
Nuclear 40
Ren. Trad. 30
GHG Emissions = 6Gt/C
Total = 1,200 EJ
GHG Emissions = 1~2 GtC
2000 2100
Fossil Fuels
358 EJ
Ren. Modern
16 EJ
Ren. Trad. 45 EJ
Nuclear 9 EJ
Ren. Modern
450
Fossil Fuels 680
Nuclear 40
Ren. Trad. 30
Total = 429 EJ Total = 1,200 EJGHG Emissions = 1~2GtC
2000 2100
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 24
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Energy price increases
– Electricity final price increase of 25-50% over the next 50 years (less than 1% per year)
– Similar increases for clean burning gaseous (H2 or H2 mixed with natural gas) and liquid (biomass) fuels
Rising energy cost share of household budgets
– Increasing in typical OECD country from today’s 6% to 8% by about 2050
– Compare to 20% energy cost share of household budget in 1900 and 20% in developing countries today
Impacts for energy consumers
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 25
Careful not to bias energy regulation against clean fossil fuels– Subsidies and regulations that only
favour efficiency, renewables and nuclear
Newer approaches– Multi-sector or economy-wide cap and
trade (with safety valve)– Sector-specific regulated niche markets
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
Impacts for energy regulation
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 26
Conclusion
Energy system should be seen in terms of means and ends – not good guys and bad guys.
The end is a clean, enduring and low cost energy system – with minimal extreme event and geopolitical risk.
In the pursuit of this end, fossil fuels can be part of a sustainable energy system for a very long time.
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
emrgemrgenergy and materials research group
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Jan/2006 Jaccard / Res&EnvMgmt / SFU 27
For details
order online at www.cambridge
.org
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emrgemrgenergy and materials research group