Sustainable Development

Linking Energy and the Environment

Washington U. Carbon Impact

Rudolf B. Husar & Erin RobinsonDirector, Center for Air Pollution and Trends Analysis (CAPITA) 

Professor, Department of Energy, Environmental & Chemical Engineering  

EECE Seminar, Friday, November 2, 2007, 11:00am,

Lopata 101, Washington University

Integrative Science and Engineering for‘Grand Challenges’

The problems of Energy and Environment (EE) are Grand Challenges

Solutions require engineering, biological, socio-economic and other sciences

A rigorous and practical integrated framework for EE is not available

This is an exploration of frameworks for integrated Energy Environmental Analysis

Interested in the EE integration challenge? Join us on the wiki!

Sustainable Development (SD)

A process of reconciling society’s developmental needs with the environmental limits over the long term. But, What should be developed, what should be sustained?

SD as an uncertain and adaptive process, “in which society's discovery of where it wants to go is intertwined with how it might try to get there”.

During the SD ‘journey’ toward sustainability, the pathways have to be ‘navigated’ adaptively

Continuing the metaphors, science is the compass, giving the directions and laws-regulations are the gyroscope for staying on course

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National Academy, 1999

Life and non-life on Earth form a combined system (Gaia Theory)

Carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus, calcium are in constant circulation between the earth’s major environmental compartments

Earth’s compartments remain in balance as long as the rate of flow of matter and energy in and out of the compartments is unchanged.

Changes in the environmental compartments will occur if the circulation (in and out flow) of the substances is perturbed.

Atmospheric CO2 has been increasing because the rate of input is larger than the rate of output from the atmosphere.

Major Biogeochemical Processes Visualized by Aerosols

Dust storms

Volcanoes Anthropogenic pollution

Fires

Anthropogenic pollution perturbs the natural processes and material flows

Ice extent during the Last Glacial Maximum

Is our climate changing?

Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent

(1979 versus 2003)Image courtesy of NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center

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105

342

68

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390

327 90

16

H2O, CO2, O3

[Hansen and Sato (2004)]

Last 50 Years Surface Temperature Change Based on Linear Trends (oC)

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CO2 CH4 N2O CFC12 CFC11 Other

Source: NOAA ESRL Global Monitoring Division

2004 Radiative forcing from well-mixed greenhouse gases

Human activities generate CO2

Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel burning, cement production, and gas flaring for 1751-2002

Analysis Frameworks

Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science; Regulatory)

Assessment

Controls

Monitoring

Causality Loop(Combined Social-Physical-Biological System)

Biogeochemical Cycling Loop(Engineering; Biology; Conservation Laws)

Analysis Framework I: Sensory-Motor Loop

AssessmentCompare to Goals, Plan Reductions

Track Progress

Controls (Actions)

Monitoring(Sensing)

Set Goals

Assessment turns data into knowledge for decision making & actions through analysis (science & eng.)

Monitoring collects multi-sensory data from surface and satellite platforms and

Human activities exert pressures, e.g burning fossil fuels, that alter the state of environment.

The impaired environmental state, elicits responses, such as regulations in a feedback loop

All living organisms use this type of sensory-motor feedback to maintain their existence.

Monitoring, Assessment, Control are the necessary steps for sustainable development.

Monitoring:New Global Measurements - Satellites

ERBS

Terra

Aqua

Grace

IceSat

QuikScatSage

SeaWinds

TRMM

Toms-EP

UARS Jason

Landsat 7

SORCE

SeaWiFS

ACRIMSAT

TOPEX/Poseidon

EO-1

Eskes at al, 2006

Source Identification:- Man-made, Soil, Biomass, Lightning- Seasonal pattern of each

Trend 1995-2005:

- Reductions in N. America & Europe

- Increase over East Asia (China)

Monitoring Global Change:

Tropospheric NO2 Measurements from Satellites:

Controls: Sustainability Transition

Analysis Framework II: Materials & Energy Flow Loop

Biogeochemical Cycles - Carbon

Nitrogen Cycle

Consequences of Ecosystem Changes

How and what to Control?? Analysis Framework III – Causality Loop

Economic Development with Due Care of the Environment

The system approach links human activities and their consequences in closed loop

It is the minimum set of linked components – if any missing, the system is crippled

Each component depends on its causal upstream driver – and external environment

The causal loop can be used as an organizing principle for sustainability analysis

Analysis Framework III – Causality LoopEconomic Development with Due Care of the

Environment

Health-Welfare

Energy-Environment

Socio-Economic

Causality: Linear System Model

Trend of Indicators

SOx = Pop x GDP/P x Btu/GDP x Sox/Btu

1960s

1980s

1990s

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1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

GDP(Mill$)/PersonEnergy(Bbtu)/GDP(Mill$)SOx/Energy(Bbtu)PopulationSOX Emiss

Carbon Emission Drivers for Transportation1960-2003

Carbon Emission Trends - Passenger Transportation 1960-2003

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Env 449 Class project, SP 2007

• The C emission in transportation sector increased 200% since 1960

• The upward drivers were Population, Vehicle/Person and Passenger miles

• The slight improvement resulted from the better fuel energy efficiency/vehicle

Carbon Emission Drivers for US Housing

• The carbon emissions in the housing sector increased 23% since ‘Kyoto’ (1990-2005)

• The upward drivers were Population, Housing Units/person and Surface Area/person.

• The key improvement (13%) resulted from the better energy efficiency/sqft

Env 449 Class project, SP 2007

Summary

• Frameworks for Energy-Environment Integration:– Sensory-Motor Feedback Loop (System Science)

– Biogeochemical Cycling Loop (Materials Balance)

– Causality Loop (Socio-economic, Physical, Heatlh/Welfare Sciences)

• Opportunities:– There is a sensing revolution for monitoring energy-environmental systems

– The web facilitates accessing and metabolizing the new observations

– There is a more collaborative culture for faster, adoptive learning

• Key Challenges:– Augmenting reductionist science with integrative systems science

– Enhancing information exchange and synergy between disciplines

– Inherent structural and dynamic complexity of environmental systems