Sustainable Sustainable CapacityCapacity

in Value, Biomass & in Value, Biomass & CarbonCarbon

What Models ProvideWhat Models Provide

James D. Arney, Ph.D.James D. Arney, Ph.D.

Forest Biometrics Research Forest Biometrics Research InstituteInstitute

Missoula, MontanaMissoula, Montana

Society of American Foresters, National Society of American Foresters, National ConventionConvention

Albuquerque, New MexicoAlbuquerque, New MexicoOctober 28, 2010October 28, 2010

Forest Measurements & Forest Measurements & ModelsModels

►1930-1950s USDA Yield Tables1930-1950s USDA Yield Tables►1960s Angle Gauges & Stand Density1960s Angle Gauges & Stand Density►1970s CFI and Silviculture Studies1970s CFI and Silviculture Studies

Computerized Cruise Compilers & InventoryComputerized Cruise Compilers & Inventory Computerized Growth ModelsComputerized Growth Models Private Research CooperativesPrivate Research Cooperatives

►1980-1990s One Scientist – One Model1980-1990s One Scientist – One Model Decline in Public Funding for Growth & Yield ResearchDecline in Public Funding for Growth & Yield Research

2010 Growth Model 2010 Growth Model StatusStatus

Growth ModelGrowth Model DeveloperDeveloper StatusStatusPrognosisPrognosis Al Stage, Bill WycoffAl Stage, Bill Wycoff RetiredRetired

FVSFVS Ralph Johnson, Gary DixonRalph Johnson, Gary Dixon RetiredRetired

DFSIMDFSIM Bob Curtis, Gary Bob Curtis, Gary ClendenenClendenen

RetiredRetired

TASSTASS Ken MitchellKen Mitchell RetiredRetired

Cactos / CryptosCactos / Cryptos Lee WenselLee Wensel RetiredRetired

ORGANONORGANON Dave HannDave Hann ??

SPSSPS Jim ArneyJim Arney ??

FPSFPS Jim ArneyJim Arney ActiveActive

PPSIMPPSIM Don DeMars, Walt DahmsDon DeMars, Walt Dahms RetiredRetired

National Capacity in Forestry ResearchNational Research Council, Washington, DC - 2002

2010 Growth & 2010 Growth & SilvicultureSilviculture

► 2002 National Research Council Report2002 National Research Council Report ““National Capacity in Forestry Research has National Capacity in Forestry Research has

waned even as need for enhanced technical waned even as need for enhanced technical knowledge has increased.”knowledge has increased.”

““Forestry Research Capacity at a crossroads, if Forestry Research Capacity at a crossroads, if not a precipice.”not a precipice.”

► Significant Restructuring has OccurredSignificant Restructuring has Occurred Growth Model R&D dropped from Public SectorGrowth Model R&D dropped from Public Sector Experiment Stations & Universities lost focusExperiment Stations & Universities lost focus College Preparation is inadequate foundationCollege Preparation is inadequate foundation Forest Industry has limited staff & skill setsForest Industry has limited staff & skill sets

““Where To From Here” Where To From Here” (Arney)(Arney)

► Two - Four Regional Forestry CollegesTwo - Four Regional Forestry Colleges► A “Working” Experimental ForestA “Working” Experimental Forest

Public Demonstration of “Working Forest”Public Demonstration of “Working Forest” Fully Sustainable and Working Harvest PlanFully Sustainable and Working Harvest Plan Active Research Trials in Applied SilvicultureActive Research Trials in Applied Silviculture

► Continuing Education in Forest MethodsContinuing Education in Forest Methods► A Regional Forestry Research CenterA Regional Forestry Research Center

On-going Silvicultural Research TrialsOn-going Silvicultural Research Trials Reference Point for Forest Yield CapacitiesReference Point for Forest Yield Capacities On-going Technical Support to Forest IndustryOn-going Technical Support to Forest Industry

Forest Biometrics Research Forest Biometrics Research Institute (FBRI) MissionInstitute (FBRI) Mission

► ResearchResearch Site Capacity, Taper, Silviculture & Growth Regional Non-Parametric Libraries for All

Species Relational Database Software & Support FBRI-Certified Regional Species Libraries

► EducationEducation Forest Inventory – Workshops & Methods Growth, Yield and Silviculture Workshops Harvest Scheduling & Planning Workshops

► ServiceService Direct Technical Assistance as Requested On-Site Participation in Research & Operations Phone Conferencing & Web Site Downloads Tutorial & Research Documents and Publications

► IRS Tax-exempt, Non-profit since 2003

1996 Release of FPS 1996 Release of FPS ModelModel

► Tree List, Distant Dependent StructureTree List, Distant Dependent Structure► External Species Libraries by RegionExternal Species Libraries by Region► Non-Parametric ModelsNon-Parametric Models

Site Capacity (Soil, Climate, Topography)Site Capacity (Soil, Climate, Topography) Competition for Light, Water, NutrientsCompetition for Light, Water, Nutrients Species Capacity, Tolerance and RangeSpecies Capacity, Tolerance and Range Genetic Capacity and RangeGenetic Capacity and Range Vigor versus Disease, Pests, Weather and FireVigor versus Disease, Pests, Weather and Fire

► Balanced Orthogonal Sample DesignsBalanced Orthogonal Sample Designs

The Forest Projection System (FPS)The Forest Projection System (FPS)

► Forest Inventory Relational DatabaseForest Inventory Relational Database Stand Polygon - #, Type, SizeStand Polygon - #, Type, Size Cruise Selection / Cruise CompilerCruise Selection / Cruise Compiler Cruise ExpansionCruise Expansion Re-MerchandiserRe-Merchandiser Habitat ClassificationHabitat Classification

► Growth and Yield Model (Individual-tree, Growth and Yield Model (Individual-tree, DD)DD) Species, Size mixtures (natural, planted & regeneration)Species, Size mixtures (natural, planted & regeneration) Localized Site, Clumpiness, Taper relationshipsLocalized Site, Clumpiness, Taper relationships Silviculture effects (Site Prep, Brush, Animal, Thin, Fert, Silviculture effects (Site Prep, Brush, Animal, Thin, Fert,

Prune)Prune)

► Linked GIS Database – Linked GIS Database – Live FPS Live FPS GIS Interface GIS Interface

► Harvest Scheduling ModelHarvest Scheduling Model Stand & Neighbor (GIS) Spatial ConstraintsStand & Neighbor (GIS) Spatial Constraints Watershed Constraints (basin forest cover)Watershed Constraints (basin forest cover) Wildlife Constraints (nesting sites)Wildlife Constraints (nesting sites) Ownership Constraints (pre-assigned & periodic set Ownership Constraints (pre-assigned & periodic set

asides)asides)

Current FBRI DatabasesCurrent FBRI Databases

►Over 23,000 Permanent Research Over 23,000 Permanent Research PlotsPlots 75,000 Observations of Growth & Yield75,000 Observations of Growth & Yield 3,000,000 Tree Measurements3,000,000 Tree Measurements Up to 70 Years of ObservationUp to 70 Years of Observation Over Twenty Species RepresentedOver Twenty Species Represented $75 Million Dollar Investment $75 Million Dollar Investment

($1,000/Msmt)($1,000/Msmt) All Databases in Standardized FormatAll Databases in Standardized Format

FPS Regional Species FPS Regional Species LibrariesLibraries

► Oregon Cascades – 1996, 2006Oregon Cascades – 1996, 2006► Western Washington – 1997, 2006Western Washington – 1997, 2006► Central Washington – 1999, 2006Central Washington – 1999, 2006► North Idaho & Western Montana – 1999, 2006North Idaho & Western Montana – 1999, 2006► Central Oregon – 1998, 2006Central Oregon – 1998, 2006► Northern California – 2000, 2006Northern California – 2000, 2006► Oregon Coast Range – 2006Oregon Coast Range – 2006► Southwest British Columbia – 1995, 2006Southwest British Columbia – 1995, 2006► Southeast Alaska – 2009Southeast Alaska – 2009► Canadian Shield – 1995Canadian Shield – 1995► Hawaiian Islands – 1999Hawaiian Islands – 1999► Southern Pine Forests – 2006, 2008Southern Pine Forests – 2006, 2008► Great Lakes Region – 2006, 2008Great Lakes Region – 2006, 2008► Interior British Columbia – 1987Interior British Columbia – 1987► Alberta – Saskatchewan – 1988Alberta – Saskatchewan – 1988► Proprietary Localized Regional Libraries – 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008, Proprietary Localized Regional Libraries – 1999, 2002, 2004, 2008,

2009, 20102009, 2010

Species in FBRI LibrariesSpecies in FBRI Libraries

► Douglas-firDouglas-fir► Western hemlockWestern hemlock► Mountain hemlockMountain hemlock► Grand firGrand fir► White firWhite fir► Sub-alpine firSub-alpine fir► Silver firSilver fir► Noble firNoble fir► Sitka spruceSitka spruce► Englemann spruceEnglemann spruce► White spruceWhite spruce► Black spruceBlack spruce► Pacific yewPacific yew► Rocky mountain Rocky mountain

juniperjuniper► Alaska yellow cedarAlaska yellow cedar► Western red cedarWestern red cedar

► Western larchWestern larch► Western white Western white

pinepine► Ponderosa pinePonderosa pine► Lodgepole pineLodgepole pine► Jack pineJack pine► Sugar pineSugar pine► Coast RedwoodCoast Redwood► Eucalyptus grandisEucalyptus grandis► Eucalyptus salignaEucalyptus saligna► Eucalyptus Eucalyptus

degluptadeglupta► Queensland mapleQueensland maple► Bigleaf mapleBigleaf maple► Red AlderRed Alder► Black cottonwoodBlack cottonwood► Quaking aspenQuaking aspen► Tan oakTan oak

Conventional Douglas-fir Site CurvesHeight Growth Intercepts (10, 20, 30 meters)

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25

50

75

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125

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Breast Height Age (years)

To

tal H

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(ft)

150

130

110

90

70

50

10m

20m

30m

Regional Trends

Site & Genetic Effects

Silviculture Effects

10-Meter Site Index10-Meter Site Index► Record Age Ring Count at 10 meter HeightRecord Age Ring Count at 10 meter Height► Record Age Ring Count at 20 meter HeightRecord Age Ring Count at 20 meter Height► Difference in Ring Count is 10m Site IndexDifference in Ring Count is 10m Site Index

10m Site = 100 / Difference in Years10m Site = 100 / Difference in Years = height growth in meters / decade= height growth in meters / decade 50yr Site = 30 + 10 * 10mSite50yr Site = 30 + 10 * 10mSite 25yr Site = 30 + 5 * 10mSite25yr Site = 30 + 5 * 10mSite

DifferenceDifference 10m Site10m Site SiteSite50y50y

rr

SiteSite25yr25yr

25 years25 years 4.04.0 7070 5555

16 years16 years 6.26.2 9292 6161

11 years11 years 9.19.1 121121 7575

Silvics and Site Influence on Height / Age Curves10m Site Compared to Spruce BH Site

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Total Age (years)

He

igh

t (f

t)

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Regen

Spruce

BH Site

10mSite

Silvics and Site Influence on Height / Age Curves10m Site Compared to Spruce BH Site

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160

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Total Age (years)

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Spruce

BH Site

10mSite

Silvics and Site Influence on Height / Age Curves10m Site Compared to Spruce BH Site

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10mSite

What Models ProvideWhat Models Provide

► Define & Quantify Sustainable CapacityDefine & Quantify Sustainable Capacity Impact of Rotation LengthsImpact of Rotation Lengths Impacts of Early Silvicultural GainsImpacts of Early Silvicultural Gains Comparison of Silvicultural SystemsComparison of Silvicultural Systems

► Clearcut > Seed-Tree > Shelterwood > SelectionClearcut > Seed-Tree > Shelterwood > Selection Quantify Yields – Volume, Biomass, CarbonQuantify Yields – Volume, Biomass, Carbon Species Selection and Genetic GainsSpecies Selection and Genetic Gains Silvicultural Investment AlternativesSilvicultural Investment Alternatives Impacts of Riparian & Wildlife ConstraintsImpacts of Riparian & Wildlife Constraints

► Defensible Basis for Decision-makingDefensible Basis for Decision-making FBRI-Certified Regional Species LibrariesFBRI-Certified Regional Species Libraries

ConclusionsConclusions

► Long-term Forest Planning & Investment Long-term Forest Planning & Investment DecisionsDecisions The Tools and Methods Exist for Decision-The Tools and Methods Exist for Decision-

making based 40 years of G&Y Researchmaking based 40 years of G&Y Research The 2002 NSC Report identifies lack of R&D The 2002 NSC Report identifies lack of R&D

focusfocus A “Working Forest” reference point is neededA “Working Forest” reference point is needed

► Forest Industry in U.S. to Survive and GrowForest Industry in U.S. to Survive and Grow Must Invest in On-going Research & SupportMust Invest in On-going Research & Support Must have access to Technology & EducationMust have access to Technology & Education Reference point for Forest Yield CapacitiesReference point for Forest Yield Capacities

Forest Industry Application of Growth Models - March 2009

FPS75%

ORGANON10%

FVS6%

SPS8%

DFSIM1%

FPS

ORGANON

FVS

SPS

DFSIM

Professional Inventory / Planning Professional Inventory / Planning ForesterForester

40,000 – 300,000 Acre Tree Farm40,000 – 300,000 Acre Tree Farm

►Typically One Person In OrganizationTypically One Person In Organization B.S. Degree from Forestry SchoolB.S. Degree from Forestry School 3 – 15 Years Professional Experience3 – 15 Years Professional Experience Reports Inventory & Harvest Plans AnnuallyReports Inventory & Harvest Plans Annually Responsible for Inventory Cruise & Responsible for Inventory Cruise &

DepletionsDepletions Responsible for Silvicultural Planning & CostsResponsible for Silvicultural Planning & Costs Responsible for Harvest Levels & PlanResponsible for Harvest Levels & Plan Responsible for Assessing All ConstraintsResponsible for Assessing All Constraints Knows the Sustainable Capacity of the ForestKnows the Sustainable Capacity of the Forest

Every Professional Forester must Every Professional Forester must know:know:

End of Sophomore YearEnd of Sophomore Year

► Forest sampling (stands), Stand sampling Forest sampling (stands), Stand sampling (Plots), Sub-sampling (Trees, shrubs, snags)(Plots), Sub-sampling (Trees, shrubs, snags)

► Inventory maintenance (MS-Access), PC-Inventory maintenance (MS-Access), PC-based GIS, Acreage adjustments for roads based GIS, Acreage adjustments for roads and buffersand buffers

► Harvest Depletions & Annual ReportingHarvest Depletions & Annual Reporting► Annual sampling frequency and intensityAnnual sampling frequency and intensity► Site capacity, distribution and verificationSite capacity, distribution and verification► Habitat classification and update methodsHabitat classification and update methods

Every Professional Forester must Every Professional Forester must know:know:

End of Junior YearEnd of Junior Year

► Inventory growth projection methodsInventory growth projection methods Applications, Constraints, ValidationApplications, Constraints, Validation

► Silvicultural systems and yield differencesSilvicultural systems and yield differences Clearcut regimes, preferred species & densitiesClearcut regimes, preferred species & densities Seed Tree regimes, regeneration systemsSeed Tree regimes, regeneration systems Shelterwood regimes, habitat implicationsShelterwood regimes, habitat implications Selection regimes, single-tree versus groupSelection regimes, single-tree versus group

► Forest health, vigor, regeneration, Forest health, vigor, regeneration, tolerancetolerance Site Preparation, Vegetation ManagementSite Preparation, Vegetation Management Thinning, Pruning & Fertilization MethodsThinning, Pruning & Fertilization Methods

Every Professional Forester must Every Professional Forester must know:know:

End of Senior YearEnd of Senior Year

► Harvest scheduling methods linked to GISHarvest scheduling methods linked to GIS Hydro, Wildlife, Watershed & NeighborsHydro, Wildlife, Watershed & Neighbors

► Planning for 100 years versus 10 yearsPlanning for 100 years versus 10 years► Impact and silviculture of 2Impact and silviculture of 2ndnd & 3 & 3rdrd rotations rotations► Standards of merchandising and valuationStandards of merchandising and valuation► Regulation by Area, Volume, Value or NPVRegulation by Area, Volume, Value or NPV► Harvest polygons versus Stand polygonsHarvest polygons versus Stand polygons► Managing a Forest versus Managing a StandManaging a Forest versus Managing a Stand

Integrated Capacity of Forestry Tools(Inventory, GIS, Growth, Silviculture & Planning)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

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60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FPS

SIS/S

PSFVS

RemSoft

ORGANON

Atterb

ury

DFSIM

% o

f S

ervi

ces

FPS

SIS/SPS

FVS

RemSoft

ORGANON

Atterbury

DFSIM

FBRI Structure 2002 - FBRI Structure 2002 - 20052005

► Research Program w/ Univ of MontanaResearch Program w/ Univ of Montana College of Forestry, offices at no costCollege of Forestry, offices at no cost Kelsey Milner, Ph.D., endowed professor & hostKelsey Milner, Ph.D., endowed professor & host Jim Arney, Ph.D., volunteer biometricianJim Arney, Ph.D., volunteer biometrician Chuck Vopicka, M.S., employee, technical Chuck Vopicka, M.S., employee, technical

supportsupport Graduate students, technical support servicesGraduate students, technical support services

► Operating BudgetOperating Budget Initially $30,000 building to $100,000/yrInitially $30,000 building to $100,000/yr Endowment held by Univ. Montana FoundationEndowment held by Univ. Montana Foundation

FBRI Structure 2006 - FBRI Structure 2006 - 20102010

► Independent Research Corporation 501c3Independent Research Corporation 501c3 IRS Status approved as of August 13, 2002IRS Status approved as of August 13, 2002 Re-located to Western OregonRe-located to Western Oregon Full-time M.S. Biometrician – Brian KleinhenzFull-time M.S. Biometrician – Brian Kleinhenz Volunteer Biometricians:Volunteer Biometricians:

►Jim Arney, Ph.D. and Kelsey Milner, Ph.D.Jim Arney, Ph.D. and Kelsey Milner, Ph.D. Part-time Business Manager – JoAnn ArneyPart-time Business Manager – JoAnn Arney

► Annual Income $140,000 (2007 – 2010)Annual Income $140,000 (2007 – 2010) Additional contractual Income - $50,000 /yearAdditional contractual Income - $50,000 /year

FBRI Structure 2011+FBRI Structure 2011+

► Independent Research Corporation 501c3Independent Research Corporation 501c3 Re-located back to Western MontanaRe-located back to Western Montana Contracted Ph.D. Biometrician – Jim ArneyContracted Ph.D. Biometrician – Jim Arney Contracted Technical Support – Chuck Contracted Technical Support – Chuck

VopickaVopicka Contracted Workshop & Accounts – WF&CAContracted Workshop & Accounts – WF&CA Contracted Web Support – Nora McDougallContracted Web Support – Nora McDougall Contracted Software Support – Kevin Contracted Software Support – Kevin

GehringerGehringer Contracted Endowment Mgmt – AmeripriseContracted Endowment Mgmt – Ameriprise

FBRI Board of DirectorsFBRI Board of Directors

20102010 20112011

James D. ArneyJames D. Arney Dan OpalachDan Opalach

Kelsey S. MilnerKelsey S. Milner Jim McWhorterJim McWhorter

Kim IlesKim Iles Kim IlesKim Iles

Dave WaltersDave Walters Marc VomocilMarc Vomocil

Rob TaylorRob Taylor Rob TaylorRob Taylor

FBRI 2011 ActivitiesFBRI 2011 Activities

► 2011 Funding Requests remain at $0.02/acre2011 Funding Requests remain at $0.02/acre► Board to develop draft 5-year plan - 1Board to develop draft 5-year plan - 1stst Qtr. Qtr.► Advisory Committee becomes activeAdvisory Committee becomes active

One member identified from each organizationOne member identified from each organization 5-year plan reviews – 25-year plan reviews – 2ndnd and 3 and 3rdrd Quarters Quarters

► Workshop Schedules continue w/WF&CAWorkshop Schedules continue w/WF&CA► FPS Version 7.0 is completed & distributedFPS Version 7.0 is completed & distributed

Ownership of FPS software transfers to FBRIOwnership of FPS software transfers to FBRI Full rights to databases & libraries transfersFull rights to databases & libraries transfers

► Year-end FBRI Meeting w/Final PlanYear-end FBRI Meeting w/Final Plan