Sustainability of Indian EnergySustainability of Indian EnergySector & ChallengesSector & Challenges

I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)I A KHAN, Adviser (Energy)Planning CommissionPlanning CommissionGovernment of IndiaGovernment of India

Trends in Supply of Primary Commercial EnergyTrends in Supply of Primary Commercial Energy(in MTOE)(in MTOE)

2000-01Actual

2006-07Actual

2011-12(Provi)

2016-17 Proj.

2021-22 Proj.

DOMESTIC PRODUCTION

Coal 130.61 177.24 222.16 308.55 400Lignite 6.43 8.76 10.64 16.80 29Crude Oil 33.4 33.99 39.23 42.75 43Natural Gas 25.07 27.71 42.79 76.13 103Hydro Power 6.4 9.78 11.22 12.90 17Nuclear Power 4.41 4.91 8.43 16.97 30Renewable Energy 0.13 0.87 5.25 10.74 20Total Domestic commercial Energy 206.45 263.28 339.72 481.84 642.00

Source: Planning Commission: Figures in brackets are annual average growth rates over the previous 5 years period

Total Domestic commercial Energy 206.45 263.28 339.72 481.84 642.00

Non-commercial Energy 1 136.64153.28(1.93)

174.20(2.6%)

187.66(1.5%)

202.16(1.5%)

Total 343.09 416.56 513.92 669.50 844.16IMPORTSCoal 11.76 24.92 54.00 90.00 150.00 Petroleum Products 77.25 98.41 129.86 152.44 194.00 LNG 0 8.45 12.56 24.80 31.00Hydro power 0 0.26 0.45 0.52 0.6Total Net Imports 89.01 132.04 196.87 267.76 375.60Total Commercial Energy (growth over previous 5 years)

295.46396.32

(5.01%)536.59

(6.25%)749.60

(6.91%)1017.606.30%)

Total Primary Energy 432.01549.60

(4.09%)710.79

(5.28%)937.26

(5.69%)1219.76(5.41%)

Country GDP(PPP)/Capita Per Capita Consumption

Electricity Energy

(US$)2000 Normalized (KWh) Tons

USA 38,558 100.0 13,647 7.5

Germany 28,638 89.1 7148 4.1

Brazil 8,584 51.8 2232 1.3

Power Sector Indicators – World (2008)

Source: 1. Key World Energy Statistics 2010,

#. Estimates of Integrated Energy Policy 2007

*. CEA 2010-11 ( Provi.)

Brazil 8,584 51.8 2232 1.3

China 8,150 24.1 2453 1.6

India 3,781 19.2 818 * 0.58

India 2031-32 # 2470 1.5

CHINA

41.6

50.9 49 4743

27

40

33.231.3

30

40

50

60

% o

f G

DP

INDIA

26

41.1

48.2

5456

31.3

24.9

27.629

26.930

40

50

60

% o

f G

DP

Sectors % GDP Share – CHINA Vs INDIA

11 10

15.9

0

10

20

30

1990 2000 2008 2011

% o

f G

DP

1817

0

10

20

1990 2000 2008 2011

% o

f G

DP

Agriculture Industry Services

Source: World Bank- World Development Indicators -2012

Items USA Germany Brazil China India

Thermal 770(74.8%)

80.2(67.4%)

25.3(9.9%)

706.7(74.8%)

131.6(65.8%)

Hydro 78(11.6%)

10.6(3.7%)

78.6(83.2%)

213.4(24.5%)

39.0(19.5%)

(000’ MW)

Electricity Generation Capacity – World 2009(including non-utility capacity)

(11.6%) (3.7%) (83.2%) (24.5%) (19.5%)

Nuclear 101(11.6%)

20.5(19.5%)

2.0(2.6%)

10.8(0.7%)

4.8(2.4%)

Geothermal/SolarWind /Biomass

61(2.0%)

41(9.4%)

8(4.3%)

32.0 24.5(12.3%)

TOTAL 1010 152.3 113.9 962.9 * 199.9 #

# Installed Capacity as March 2012 Utilities & Non-Utilities – 225,000 MW; * 2010

Sector9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan

Actual Actual Actual Target

Central 4504 12165 15220 26181.6

(in MW)

Capacity Addition (Plan-wise) – Sector Wise

State 9450 6244.6 16732 15530.0

Private 5061 2670.6 23012 46825.0

Renewable 6761 14267 30000.0

All India 19015 27,841 69,231 118536.6

Mode-Wise9th Plan 10th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan

Actual Actual Actual Provi. Scenario

Thermal 13,597 12,114 48,540 72,340 49,200

(In MW)

Capacity Addition (Plan-wise) - Mode-Wise

Hydro 4,538 7,886 5,544 10,897 12,000

Nuclear 880 1,080 880 5,300 18,000

Renewable 6761 14267 30,000 30,500

Total 19,015 27,841 69,231 118537 1,09,700

Changing Structure of Fuel for Electricity( in %)

Capacity (%) Generation (%)

2012 2017 2030 2012 2017 2030

1. Coal 56 57 42 70 69 58

2. Oil 1 1 0 0 0 0

3. Gas 9 6 3 7 5 3

4. Hydro 20 15 13 14 12 11

5. Renewables 12 17 33 6 9 16

6. Nuclear 2 4 9 3 5 12

7. Total Clean Energy

(4+5+6) 23 26 39

COAL DEMAND DURING TWELFTH PLAN ( in MT )

COAL PRODUCTION ( in MT )

Demand-Supply Gap in 2016-17 ( in MT )

MMT/MMSCMD 2011-12 2012-13 2016-17

Demand of Natural Gas 250 286 370

Production of Natural gas 130 143 230

Import of LNG (MMT)

Natural Gas Availability

Import of LNG (MMT) 10.13

(38)

14 30

(114)

BEE Proposed Schemes : 12th Plan

Energy Conservation Building Code (ECBC) in new building and energy efficiency improvements in existing buildings (Phase-II)Avoided capacity addition of 928 MW

Municipal Demand Side management (MuDSM) ProgrammeAvoided capacity addition of 120 MW

Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency

Energy Efficiency and Technologies Up-gradation in Small and Medium enterprises

Avoided capacity addition of 131 MW

Standard & Labeling Scheme (S&L)Avoided capacity addition of 7766 MW

Total Saving @ 5 Cr /MW will be Rs 44725 Crore

National Energy Saving Targets under PAT (%)

(2012-15)

Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency

PAT Scheme : Background & Scope

Covers 478 designated consumers in 8 sectors

All DCs consume about 165 million toe energy

Targets would be given to all DCs to achieve the same within a time frame

-Achievement > Target E-Scerts-Achievement < Target Purchase E-Scerts / Penalty

Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency

The Energy Savings Certificates (ESCerts) so issued will be tradable on special trading platforms to be created in the two power exchanges (Indian Energy Exchange and Power Exchange India).

National Target = 6.686 million toe at the end of 1st PAT Cycle ( by 2014-15)

Perform, Achieve & Trade (PAT) Mechanism

Perform Achieve and Trade (PAT): A market based mechanism to enhance costeffec­tiveness of improvements in energy efficiency in energy-intensive largeindustries and facilities, through certification of energy savings that could be traded.

The key goal of the PAT scheme is to mandate specific energy efficiencyimprovements for the most energy intensive industries.

The scheme builds on the large variation in energy intensities of different units inalmost every sector, ranging from amongst the best in the world, to extremelyinefficient units as well.

Source: Bureau of Energy efficiency

The energy intensity reduction target mandated for each unit is dependent on itscurrent efficiency : the reduction target is less for those who are more efficient, andis higher for the currently less-efficient units.

The design of PAT is the result of extensive consultations over the last two years(2010-11 and 2011-12), which have contributed to its robustness and simplicity.

Country Coal Natural Gas

USA 1.5-2.0 2.1

Canada 1.6 2.0

China 2.0-2.5 3.5

Unit Cost Of Fuel – Cent/kwh

# Domestic Natural Gas

China 2.0-2.5 3.5

India 2.0-2.5 4.5 #

Source: Country Reports

Energy Architecture Conceptual Framework

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