sustainability at msl: slide 1 materials systems laboratory massachusetts institute of technology...

Sustainability at MSL: Slide 1Materials Systems Laboratory

Massachusetts Institute of TechnologyDepartment of Materials Science & EngineeringEngineering Systems Division

Realizing SustainableNanotechnology

Thoughts on Research Needs

Randolph KirchainMIT Materials Systems Laboratory

http://msl.mit.edu

Sustainability at MSL : Slide 2Materials Systems Laboratory


Critical Questions and Other Issues

•Materials Availability– Are there sufficient quantities of low availability

materials (e.g. In, Te) readily available for producing nanostructured devices and products on a large scale?

•Promising Candidates– Are there certain nanotechnological products or

systems that should be encouraged as replacements for current systems because the benefits are large in comparison to the potential environmental impacts?

•Other issues– Data availability

– Workforce Capacity



Question 1: Materials Availability / Scarcity

•Basic answer– We won’t run out of

anything

•Don’t worry, be happy?

•Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky

•Scarcity occurs when:– We don’t have

anymore– Total cost to extract

exceeds market value

Will we run out of key raw materials for nanotechnology?



Details of the Societal Scarcity Argument, But What about Local Impacts?

•Scarcity occurs when:Total cost to extract exceeds market value

•Isn’t this a problem?– NO: Don’t forget about

the power of • Technology• Efficiency• Substitution

– YES: Some things can’t be substituted

• Basic life needs (e.g., water)

• Environmental services

•Assuming that nanotech impact is

– Net positive or

– Small relative change…

Don’t worry, be happy?

•Unfortunately, we aren’t so lucky

•Even if effects of scarcity don’t adversely effect societal welfare …

… local effects can be significant



A Historic Example of Local Impacts from Materials Constraint: Cobalt in the Late 1970’s

•Zaire compared to World in 1977– Population 0.04%– GDP 0.09%– Cobalt resources

40%

•Small scale rebellion in 1977 led to:– Short term constraint– Global speculation

Sources: Adelman, K. L. R. Afr. Soc. 1978, v77. Blechman and Sloss. National Security and Strategic Minerals, 1985. Canadian Minerals Yearbook 1886-2004. and USGS Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summary 1932-2006,



Outcomes from Cobalt Crisis:Some Transitory, Some Permanent

• Supply constraint led to price increase that led to changes in ..

– Operations• Recycling• Stockpiling

– Technology• Process efficiency• Materials substitution

– Geography• Supply relocation

• Even though price changes were temporary, effects to firms were permanent

• Research Questions– Can we identify supply

chains that are at risk?

– How should a firm respond to such a risk?

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Rea

l Pri

ce o

f Co

('000

s 98

$/t)

Primary Outcome: Price Increase



Simple metrics provide

insight, but do not capture

interrelated aspects of

materials use

Screening for Risk



An Example of a Simple Risk Metric Institutional inefficiency: Geographic Concentration

China

Australia

Congo

Chile

S.Africa

China

Chile

China

U.S.A.

Russia

Peru

China

S.Africa

China

Russia

Guinea

Zambia

U.S.A.

Australia

Australia

Australia

Canada

Chile

U.S.A.

Mexico

Indonesia

Russia

Australia

Canada

Jamaica

Australia

Indonesia

U.S.A.

U.S.A.

China

Russia

China

Canada

China

Peru

Canada

Peru

Aluminum

Bauxite

Cobalt

Copper

Gold

Lead

Lithium

Magnesium

Molybdenum

Nickel

Silver

Tin

Platinum

Zinc

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0

Cumulative Fraction of Global Primary Production (2004)

Screening for Risk

Sources: Mineral Yearbook and Mineral Commodity Summaries 2007.



Can We Identify Materials at Risk?Simple Metrics Fall Short, Models Provide Novel Insights

•Simple metrics– provide some

insight

– do not capture interrelated aspects of materials use

•Modeling materials system provides insight into – sources of risk

– impact of strategies to address it



Model-based Conclusion:Value of Recycling as a fast-responding supply

0

20

40

60

80

0.7 0.8 0.9 1Fraction of Base Case Recycling

Ave

rage

Pri

ce ($/

g)

High Levels of Recycling in Platinum Materials System– Reduces use of primary supply - slows down ore

degradation

– Stabilizes inventory of metal and hence price

– Reduces supply chain risk

Derived from data in: International Aluminium Institute: Life Cycle Assessment of Aluminium, March 2003



Preliminary Results Show Economic Benefits of Recycling

Model results indicate that a system with significant recycling

– Experiences less significant price effects from supply disruption

– Recovers more quickly from supply disruption

– Lowers downstream

•Materials expenditure•Risk

0 10 20 30 40 500

20

40

60

Pri

ce

($

/g)

Time (Year)

75% Recycling 90% Recycling Base Case



Research Needs on Materials Availability

•Supply– Characterization of available resources

– Technology and economics of extraction• Current and future expansion

•Production– Consumption per unit of product delivered

•Market– Expected demand

– Price elasticity

•Recovery– Technical and economic potential

•Substitutes



Question 2: Promising Candidates

Products that…– Meet basic human needs

• Clean water• Food

– Involve the Use of toxics

– Create most burden during the use phase

• Efficient transport, electronics, lighting• Reduced need for water transport and/or hot

water

What applications should be encouraged because the potential net benefits are large?



When Identifying Promising Candidates Life-Cycle Perspective is Critical: Common LC Hotspots

Extraction

Use



Other Issue 1: Data Availability / Data Quality

Everyone (who hasn’t previously worked on LCA)…Overestimates data availability

…Underestimates the cost of data collection– Although we have made tremendous progress,

quality data is scarce for all forms of LCA

Franklin

ETH

EcoinventIDEMAT

Current databases–Largely point estimates

(or are treated as such)

–Incompletely documented

–Not regularly updated

Current databases–Largely point estimates

(or are treated as such)

–Incompletely documented

–Not regularly updated

International Primary Aluminium Institute: LCI of the Worldwide Aluminium Industry with Regard to Energy Consumption…, May 2000 Database values: Aluminum 0% recycled ETH U. PRe Consultants, Aluminum, primary, liquid, at plant; www.ecoinvent.ch. Aluminum ingots I; IDEMAT 2001, Aluminum can, FAL; Franklin Associates.



Other Issue 2: Workforce Capacity

•Knowledge gaps are not the only issue that holds back environmentally conscious design

•Real need for more – LCA specialist

– LCA knowledgeable

• Product designers• Process designers

Courtesy: S Fredholm, PE Americas

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