sustainability and livability on a regional scale date: 2/25/2011
TRANSCRIPT
Sustainability and Livability on a Regional Scale
Date: 2/25/2011
[Required – do not edit]
This presentation is protected by US and International Copyright laws. Reproduction, distribution, display and use of the presentation without written permission of the speaker is prohibited.
9/11/07 7:53 PM
3
Acknowledgements/Credits
[Optional]
4
[Required – do not edit]
This program is registered with the AIA/CES for continuing professional education. As such, it does not include content that may be deemed or construed to constitute approval, sponsorship or endorsement by the AIA of any method, product, service, enterprise or organization. The statements expressed by speakers, panelists, and other participants reflect their own views and do not necessarily reflect the views or positions of The American Institute of Architects or of AIA components, or those of their respective officers, directors, members, employees, or other organizations, groups or individuals associated with them. Questions related to specific products and services may be addressed at the conclusion of this presentation.
9/11/07 7:53 PM
5
Learning Objectives
• Examine the development of regional growth policies and measure effectiveness over time.
• Explore effective regional processes and strategies that can be applied elsewhere.
• Examine the Bay region's policies, systems and plans and evaluate their effectiveness and legitimacy in a broad and long term sense.
• Review and evaluate whether or not the plans and policies have created effective land use strategies in terms of urban design, smart growth, conservation of open space and regional structure.
Developing a Sustainable Communities StrategyFor the Bay Area
Ezra Rapport, ABAG Executive Director
Steve Heminger, MTC Executive Director
AB 32 Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006
AB 32 establishes the first comprehensive program of regulatory and market mechanisms in the nation to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions
AB 32 sets GHG emissions limit for 2020 at 1990 level
Acknowledges that 2020 is not the endpointPoints way towards 80% reduction by 2050
Air Resources Board (ARB) adopted a Scoping Plan to achieve AB 32’s GHG emissions reduction target
California’s Three Pronged Approach to Reducing Transportation Greenhouse Gases(with AB 32 Scoping Plan estimates for GHG reductions in 2020)
Cleaner vehicles (Pavley, AB 32) - 38 tons
Cleaner fuels (Low-Carbon Fuel Standard) - 15 tons
More sustainable communities (SB 375) - 5 tons
SB 375 Basics
• Directs ARB to develop passenger vehicle GHG reduction targets for CA’s 18 MPOs for 2020 and 2035
• Adds Sustainable Communities Strategy as new element to RTPs
• Requires separate Alternative Planning Strategy if GHG targets not met
• Provides CEQA streamlining incentives for projects consistent with SCS/APS
• Coordinates RHNA with the regional transportation planning process
Develop a strategy that:
• Reduces GHG emissions from driving in the Bay Area
• Houses the region’s population at all income levels
The RegionalTask
• Coordinating city, state, and regional investments
• Providing the necessary planning and capital supports for successful private investment in infill development
• Developing places with safe, convenient transportation options and access to a range of amenities
The RegionalTask
Bay Area Economy Today
The Bay Area leads the nation in patents, venture capital, concentration of laboratories and research centers, technology exports, and education of the workforce.
The Bay Area is the most productive region in the United States with an 84 percent advantage over the U.S. average of output per capita.
Building on an Existing Framework
The region already has a local-regional partnership to support growth in sustainable Priority Development Areas and to protect important natural resources identified as Priority Conservation Areas.
SB 375 is structured as a voluntary, incentive-based program.
Strategy for Growth
What this means:
• The growth we are planning for over the next several decades will be very different from the outward expansion over the last few decades.
• With the demands for environmental resource conservation and infrastructure efficiency, infill development with streamlined permitting and financial support will be primary strategies.
Place Types
This is a flexible framework for supporting sustainable growth in a range of places.
Place TypesRegional Center
City Center
Suburban Center
Transit Town Center
Urban Neighborhood
Transit Neighborhood
Mixed Use Neighborhood
Resources to Local Government Are Key
State and regional capital grants
New federal funding models(e.g. joint HUD/DOT/EPA programs)
Self-help tools(e.g. value-capture such as tax
increment financing)
PDA Capital Funding Shortfall
Category $ billions
Transportation Infrastructure
6.3
Affordable Housing 2.0
Parks 1.4
Utilities 0.9
Other Public Facilities 0.9
Pre-Development Activities
0.6
TOTAL 12.1
Location Matters
Growing Cooler: Compared to sprawl, compact development results in a 20 to 40 percent reduction in VMT and hence in CO2
Price MattersToo
Core Pricing:Driving is more expensive in the urban core with higher parking costs and bridge tolls
Why Not Focus on Infrastructure?
Won’t Technology Save the Day?
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1990 2000 2010 2020
Year
19
90
=1
00
Baseline VMT
Baseline CO2
CO2 Pavley
C02 State 2020 Goal
ARB Adopted GHG Targets — September 2010
Percent Reduction in Per Capita Emissions from 2005 to Target Year
2020 2035
Bay Area 7% 15%
Sacramento 7% 16%
San Diego 7% 13%
Los Angeles 8% 13%
Central Valley 5% 10%
Projections 2009 Current Regional Plans
Reviewed Projections 2009 forecast with CMAs & Local Jurisdictions
Reduced Employment Forecast by 205,000 jobs in 2010 and 707,000 jobs in 2035
Assumed RTP Transportation Network and Investments
Revised Household Growth Distribution
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Oakland San Francisco San Jose
Projections 09 Planned Future
Regional Job Projections
3
4
5
6
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Projections 2003
Projections 2005
Projections 2007
Projections 2009
Projections 2011
Jobs
in m
illio
ns
County
Population Percent Change
20052035
Adopted Plan Proj 0112005 to 2035 Adopted Plan
2035 Adopted Plan to 2035
Proj 011
San Francisco
795,800 969,000 1,008,500 22% 4%
Santa Clara 1,763,000 2,431,400 2,587,000 38% 6%
Alameda 1,505,300 1,966,300 2,062,100 31% 5%
Contra Costa
1,023,400 1,322,900 1,373,400 29% 4%
Solano 421,600 506,500 497,600 20% -2%
Napa 133,700 148,800 147,200 11% -1%
Sonoma 479,200 561,500 564,500 17% 1%
Marin 252,600 274,300 278,800 9% 2%
San Mateo 721,900 893,000 896,300 24% >1%
Total 7,096,500 9,073,700 9,412,200 28% 4%
Current Regional Plans
Current Regional Plans vs. Historical Trends
• Assumes higher rates of housing construction than seen historically (24,000 vs 20,000 annually) but still does not meet the housing target.
• Still results in insufficient affordable housing (historically about 40% of the region’s need).
• Continued commuting growth originating outside the region (jobs exceed employed residents by over 300,000 in 2035).
Revised GHG Emission Reduction Estimates (% per capita - 2005 vs 2035)
T-2035 w/Proj 07
+2%0%-2%
T-2035 w/Proj 09
-7%
T-2035 w/Proj 11
Increase GHG Reductions per capita
-10%
T-2035 w/Proj 11w/New Modelw/HOT Backbonew/Increased tolls
1. Reduce CO2 per capita
2. House projected regional growth
3a. Reduce premature deaths fromPM2.5 emissions
3b. Reduce PM10 emissions
4. Reduce injuries & fatalities fromcollisions
5. Increase daily minutes ofwalking/biking per person
6. Direct new non-agriculturaldevelopment within urban footprint
[in acres]
-10%-15%
100%73%
-30% -13%
18%
100%
100%66%
68%
-25%
-10%
1. Reduce CO2 per capita
* autos and light-duty trucks only *
2. House projected regional growth
3a. Reduce premature deaths
from PM2.5 emissions
3b. Reduce PM10 emissions
4. Reduce injuries and ___fatalities from collisions ___
5. Increase daily time spent walking/biking per person to 15
minutes
6. Direct new non-agricultural development within urban footprint
* measured in acres *
-50%
Targets Performance – Current Regional Plans (1)
7. Reduce housing + transportationcosts as share of low-income
households' budgets
8. Increase gross regional product[GRP]
9a. Reduce per-trip travel time fornon-auto trips
9b. Reduce VMT per capita
10a. Increase local road PCI
10b. Reduce share of distressedstate-hwy lane-miles
10c. Reduce average transit assetage as percent of useful life
-10% 3%
* preliminary results *
-10% 5%
-10% -8%
84% 100%
35%
120%
Results not yet available 90%
10%
50%
7. Reduce housing + transportation costs as share of low-income
households' budgets
8. Increase gross regional product [GRP]
9a. Reduce per-trip travel time for non-auto trips
9b. Reduce VMT per capita
10a. Increase local road pavement condition index [PCI] to 75
10b. Reduce share of distressed state highway lane-miles to no
more than 10% of total lane-miles
10c. Reduce average transit asset age to 50% of useful life
Targets Performance – Current Regional Plans (2)
What’s the Overall Workplan?
BAAQMD CEQA Guidance/ISR
BCDC Bay Plan Amendment
Potential New Investment Strategies
•Grants for affordable housing close to transit
•Infrastructure bank to support investments in housing
and jobs close to transit
•Transportation investments that reduce greenhouse
gas
emissions
•Infrastructure investments in small towns providing
services and improving pedestrian access
A Local-Regional Partnership is Essential
Land Use Transportation
Sustainable Communities StrategySustainable Communities Strategy
Local AuthorityLocal Authority
Regional AuthorityRegional Authority
Changes In Attitude and BehaviorAre Essential
Breakthroughs are possible!
9/11/07 7:53 PM
34
Evaluation
Speakers(List alphabetically by last name regardless of speaking order)
• Jeffrey Heller, FAIA• Ezra Rapport• Will Travis
9/11/07 7:53 PM
35
Contact InformationJeffrey Heller, FAIAHeller Manus [email protected]
Steve HemingerMetropolitan Transportation [email protected]
Ezra RapportAssociation of Bay Area [email protected]
Will TravisSan Francisco Bay Conservation and Development [email protected]