susan doka - university of windsorweb2.uwindsor.ca/lemn/lemn2008_files/presentations/doka...graph...

Vulnerability of lower Great Lakes coastal wetland aquatic biota to climate change

Vulnerability of lower Great Lakes coastal wetland aquatic biota to climate change

Susan DokaGreat Lakes Laboratory for Fisheries and Aquatic SciencesFisheries & Oceans Canada, Burlington ON

Linda Mortsch, Andrea HebbAdaptation & Impact Research Group, Environment Canada & University of Waterloo

& Joel Ingram Canadian Wildlife Service, Environment Canada, Downsview ON

Funding Support:Climate Change Impacts & Adaptations Program

International Joint Commission LOSLR Study

Lake Erie Millennium Network ConferenceLake Erie Millennium Network ConferenceUniversity of Windsor , Windsor, ONUniversity of Windsor , Windsor, ONApril 29, 2008 13:15April 29, 2008 13:15--13:3013:30

Temperature & Water Level Predictions

Vegetation Mapping & Modelling

Fish Habitat Supply & Vulnerability of Fishes

Water Regulation

Project OverviewProject Overview

MarshConnectivity

Evaluation

Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies

Clim

ate

Chan

ge I

mpa

cts

Clim

ate

Chan

ge I

mpa

cts

Assessment

Great Lakes Water Levels Great Lakes Water Levels

173.0

173.5

174.0

174.5

175.0

175.5

176.0

176.5

177.0

177.5

1865

1875

1885

1895

1905

1915

1925

1935

1945

1955

1965

1975

1985

1995

2005

Year

Wat

er L

evel

(m

asl

)

72.0

72.5

73.0

73.5

74.0

74.5

75.0

75.5

76.0

76.5W

ater Level (m asl)

Lake On

tario

Lake Michigan-Huron

Lake Ontario

Lake Erie

Lake St. Clair

Temperature & Precipitation ProjectionsTemperature & Precipitation Projections

Not so Warm & Wet

Not so Warm & Dry

Warm& Dry

Warm& Wet

Source: L. Mortsch, M. Alden & J. Klaassen, Environment Canada

Mea

n P

reci

pita

tion

Ch

ange

(%

)

Mean Temperature Change (oC)

HADCM3 B22

HADCM3 A1F1

CGCM2 A21

CGCM2 B23

-5

0

5

10

15

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Lake St. Clair Water LevelsLake St. Clair Water Levels

174.0

174.5

175.0

175.5

176.0

176.5

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Wat

er le

vel (

m)

Not as Warm&WetNot as Warm&DryWarm&WetWarm&Dry

HistoricMaximumMeanMinimum

Climate Change Scenarios

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Graph showing the base case and water level scenarios for Lake St. Clair Similar to Lake Michigan-Huron, All climate change water level scenarios project that water levels will be below mean conditions Two are actually below minimum conditions (warm and wet; warm and dry) One (not as warm and wet) close to minimum conditions

Lake St. Clair Scenario Lake St. Clair Scenario

•

1.57 m (IGLD85) water level decline

•

8 m dredged channel

•

Shoreline displacement from 0.5 to 6 km

Source: Lee et al. 1994

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Map illustrating the change in shoreline in Lake St. Clair from a 1.57 m decline in water levels with a changed climate “Climate Change Impacts on Western Lake Erie, Detroit River, and Lake St. Clair Water Levels” by Lee, Moulton and Hibner for the GLSLB Project in 1994 2xCO2 scenario, CCC GCM (Canadian Climate Centre GCM) Impacts of a 1.57 m decline Shoreline displaced from 0.5 km (along the western and southern shores) to 6 km (along the northern edge) Currently a 8 m dredged channel for shipping and navigation and with a decline? What will happen then? Surface area and volume greatly reduced (since lake is small) 15% reduction in surface area with 0.8 m decrease to chart datum, volume reduced by 20% New islands, small and shallow lakes and ponds forming in deeper areas Affect wetlands, navigation (reduced loading capacity), increase dredging, recreational boating (lake access, water depths)

Project Wetland LocationsProject Wetland LocationsWetland Connectivity StudyWetland Connectivity Study Modelling SitesModelling Sites Habitat SurveysHabitat Surveys

ScenarioMitchell’s Bay Lake St. Clair

Long Point Bay Lake Erie

Presqu’ile Lake Ontario

Low Historic 360 ha

174.37 m ASL

11550 ha

173.61 m ASL

522 ha

74.40 m ASL

High Historic 519 ha

175.27 m ASL

14567 ha

174.37 m ASL

576 ha

74.92 m ASL

Low Climate Warm & Dry Scenario

309 ha 6220 ha 324 ha

High ClimateWarm & Dry Scenario

336 ha 11550 ha 393 ha

Loss(CGCM2 A21)

51 –

183 ha 14 –

35 %-1.00 m

3017 –

5330 ha 21 –

46 %-0.80 m

183 –

193 ha32 –

37 %-0.75 m

High Historic (1978)

Low CC

Low Historic (1964)

High CC

Rule-based Vegetation ModelsRule-based Vegetation Models

EmergentTreed/Shrub Meadow SubmergentFloating

DFO-GLLFASSubmerged Aquatic Vegetation Model

CWS-Waterloo EmergentVegetation Model(Depth, Time of Last Exposure)

(Depth, Fetch, Substrate)

Adapted Bolsenga

& Herdendorf

1993


Low CC

Low Historic (1964)

High CC

Fish Habitat Model LayersFish Habitat Model Layers

Calculations of Weighted Suitable Area (WSA = Σ

Habitat Quantity · Quality)

Habitat Quality = Habitat Suitability Indices

Lower Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Fishes (2003-2005) Lower Great Lakes Coastal Wetland Fishes (2003-2005)

bowfin, smallmouth bass, largemouth bass, white bass, muskellunge, grass pickerel

white sucker, Iowa darter, johnny darter, banded killifish, brook silverside, striped shiner, greater redhorse, shorthead redhorse, round goby*, golden shiner, pugnose shiner, emerald shiner, blackchin shiner, blacknose shiner, spottail shiner, yellow perch, logperch, river chub, rudd*

Warmwater (WW)Coolwater (CW)

longnose gar, northern pike, spotted gar, walleye

Chinook salmon*, brown trout*

Pisc

ivor

e (P

)

rock bass, black bullhead, yellow bullhead, brown bullhead, freshwater drum, goldfish*, quillback, spotfin shiner, common carp*, gizzard shad, lake chubsucker, channel catfish, bigmouth buffalo, green sunfish, pumpkinseed, warmouth, orangespotted sunfish, bluegill, pugnose minnow, white perch*, spotted sucker, ghost shiner, mimic shiner, tadpole madtom, white crappie, bluntnose minnow, fathead minnow, black crappie, central mudminnow

trout-perch, alewife*

Non

-Pis

civo

re (N

P)

Coldwater


Low CC

Low Historic (1964)

High CC

Base Case (High)

Spawning

YOY

Adult

WW-P

WW-NP

CW-P

CW-NP

Base Case (Low)

WSA (100s of Hectares)WSA (100s of Hectares)

Warm & Dry (High) Warm & Dry (Low)

Long Point, Lake Erie Long Point, Lake Erie

0 5 10 15 20 0 5 10 15 20

WW-P

WW-NP

CW-P

CW-NP

Fish

Gui

ldFi

sh G

uild

Life StageLife Stage

Mitchell’s Bay, Lake St. ClairMitchell’s Bay, Lake St. Clair

0 50 100 150 200 0 50 100 150 200

Base Case (High) Base Case (Low)

Warm & Dry (High) Warm & Dry (Low)

WW-P

WW-NP

CW-P

CW-NP

WW-P

WW-NP

CW-P

CW-NP

WSA (Hectares)WSA (Hectares)

Fish

Gui

ldFi

sh G

uild

Life StageLife StageSpawning

YOY

Adult

Conclusions of Modelling Assessment

Conclusions of Modelling Assessment•

Depending on local physical conditions, the response of vegetation and habitat availability for different fish groups & life stages varies

•

Shoreline development and restoration measures need to be evaluated with variability & projections in mind

•

Future assessment should include thermal changes, coastal processes, probabilities, and be at the basin or lake-level to evaluate spatial patterns and protect important transitional areas

Vulnerability of Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Biotic Communities

Vulnerability of Great Lakes Coastal Wetlands Biotic Communities

Includes:a)

Sensitivity index for 99 native lacustrine species based on thermal & coastal changes

b)

Evaluation of wetland dyking and whole lake regulation adaptations

Project Website PDF:http://http://www.fes.uwaterloo.ca/www.fes.uwaterloo.ca/research/research/airgairg/wetlands/wetlands

No more CDs or paper copies.No more CDs or paper copies.

AcknowledgementsAcknowledgementsGIS Support:•

Carolyn Bakelaar, Charlene Rae, Andrew Doolittle, Krista Holmes

Project Support:•

Lynn Bouvier, Jason Barnucz, Matt Stuart, Kathy Leisti, Kris VandeSompel, Maggie Galloway, Shawn Meyer

Funding Support:• Climate Change Impacts & Adaptation Program •

International Joint Commission

susan doka - university of windsorweb2.uwindsor.ca/lemn/lemn2008_files/presentations/doka...graph...

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