Supported Employment Counselors2011 Statewide Training

Edgefield Blackberry HallTroutdale OR

Presenter

Malcolm G Boswell, Workforce AnalystWorkSource Portland Metro East

Employment Department

July 2011

The economy is a living, breathing system that mimics human nature, meaning it is not a robot, or a computer that follows a certain program. It doesn’t always follow the models and certainly does not subscribe to the saying “All things being equal”.

It usually reacts to the general sentiment and whims of the population.

The Economy

Recessions

• Recessions are a common part of any economy, they happen quite frequently and at relatively regular intervals.

• It is a time of change, “out with the old, in with the new” that varies in intensity depending on the nature of the recession.

• Recessions are regularly measured by the economic productivity (GDP). However, employment is an indicator that is gaining weight in estimating the beginning and ending of a recession.

Employment Trend 1946 - 2003 (000's)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

19

46

19

47

19

49

19

50

19

52

19

53

19

55

19

56

19

58

19

59

19

61

19

62

19

64

19

65

19

67

19

68

19

70

19

71

19

73

19

74

19

76

19

77

19

79

19

80

19

82

19

83

19

85

19

86

19

88

19

89

19

91

19

92

19

94

19

95

19

97

19

98

20

00

20

01

20

03

Employment Trend 1946 - 2003 (000's)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

19

46

19

47

19

49

19

50

19

52

19

53

19

55

19

56

19

58

19

59

19

61

19

62

19

64

19

65

19

67

19

68

19

70

19

71

19

73

19

74

19

76

19

77

19

79

19

80

19

82

19

83

19

85

19

86

19

88

19

89

19

91

19

92

19

94

19

95

19

97

19

98

20

00

20

01

20

03

United States

How long do recessions last?

Recessions are measured from peak economic growth to the trough (lowest point of economic downturn). The current recession is nearing 19 months but may be revised.

The average duration of recessions between 1945 and 2003

10 Months

The average duration of recessions between 1919 and 1945

17 Months

The average duration of recessions prior to 1919

22 Months

Last three recessions were characterized by their “Jobless Recovery” Causes of jobless recovery?

According to Lisa Smith who based her article on Jobless Recovery: The new normal, Yahoo Finance (Nov. 1, 2010), on Economist Nick Perna’s first studies on what he coined the Jobless recovery, some of the most significant causes for this new normal include:

•Structural changes in the US Economy

•Globalization

•Executive Compensation

•Consumers desire for lower cost goods

•Changes in technology and labor productivity

The demand for skills changes over time!

Causes of change include:

• Changes in technology• Changes in business strategies• Changes in the economy• Changes in consumer expectations

Uemployed Americans Find Old Jobs Require New Skillsby Christopher S. Rugaber, AP Economics Writer, for Manufacturing Business TechnologyOctober 11, 2010

“The jobs crisis has brought an unwelcome discovery for many unemployed Americans: Job openings in their old fields exist. Yet they no longer qualify for them. (emphasis added)

They're running into a trend that took root during the recession. Companies became more productive by doing more with fewer workers. Some asked staffers to take on a broader array of duties — duties that used to be spread among multiple jobs. Now, someone who hopes to get those jobs must meet the new requirements.

As a result, some database administrators now have to manage network security.

Accountants must do financial analysis to find ways to cut costs.

Factory assembly workers need to program computers to run machinery.”

Skill gap as a result of changes in technology

Typewriter Word Processor

Computer Internet

•Typing Speed

•Accuracy/ Grammar

•Typing Speed

•Accuracy/Grammar

•Use word processing software•Operate printer

•Use word processing software

•Use spreadsheet software

•Use desktop publishing

•Operate printer & peripherals

Computer Operator

Secretary

Admin Assistant

Typist

Clerk

Secretary

Word Processor

Secretary

Secretary

Admin Assistant

Web Designer

•Use word processing software

•Use spreadsheet software

•Use desktop publishing

•Use web page design software

•Use E-mail

•Use Internet

•Operate printer & peripherals

Skill gap as a result of re-organization(Business Strategies)

Position 1Secretary 2

F1a F1b F1c

F1d F1e

Position 2Secretary 1

F2a F2m F2n

F2p F2q F2r

Position 3Secretary 3

F3a F3c F3t

F3s

Position 4Exec Assistant

F1a F1b F1c

F1d F1e F2p

Position 3.aAdmin Clerk

F3a F3c F3t

F3s

F2r

F2m

F2n F2q

Green Skills The New Value Added Skills

Key Finding: Oregon has roughly 50,000 green jobs.

• 51,402 green jobs in 2008, spread across... • 5,025 employers• all major industry groups• 226 different occupations

• Represents about 3 percent of the employment in the private sector and state and local government

• To give perspective … this is roughly the same as the number of employees working in Oregon’s private hospitals.

Construction, wholesale and retail trade, and administrative and waste services account for about half of Oregon’s green jobs.

IndustryGreen

JobsPortion of All

Green JobsConstruction 8,676 17%Wholesale and Retail Trade 8,315 16%Administrative and Waste Services 7,074 14%Natural Resources and Mining 5,762 11%Professional and Technical Services 5,411 11%State and Local Government 5,063 10%Manufacturing 4,228 8%Leisure and Hospitality 2,260 4%Other Services 1,555 3%Educational and Health Services 1,353 3%Transportation and Warehousing 573 1%Utilities 403 Less Than 1%Information 354 Less Than 1%Management of Companies and Enterprises 252 Less Than 1%Financial Activities 123 Less Than 1% Total 51,402 100%

Key Finding: Many green jobs are in blue collar occupations.

Occupational GroupGreen

JobsPortion of All

Green JobsConstruction and Extraction 10,381 20%Production 6,512 13%Farming, Fishing, and Forestry 5,838 11%Transportation and Material Moving 5,255 10%Architecture and Engineering 4,360 8%Life, Physical, and Social Science 4,135 8%Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance

2,877 6%

Sales and Related 2,437 5%Installation, Maintenance, and Repair 2,233 4%Management 1,639 3%Office and Administrative Support 1,570 3%Protective Service 1,032 2%Education, Training, and Library 790 2%Business and Financial Operations 683 1%Food Preparation and Serving Related 513 1%Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media

480 1%

Other 667 1% Total 51,402 100%

Green wage levels are spread across a wide spectrum, just like wages of all jobs.

Percent of Green Jobs by Wage Group

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Under$10.00

$10.00 -$14.99

$15.00 -$19.99

$20.00 -$24.99

$25.00 -$29.99

$30.00 -$49.99

$50.00 ormore

Hourly Wage

Key Finding: Two-thirds of green jobs require no education beyond high school.

No Requirement32%

High School Graduate

32%

Associate Degree7%

Some College7%

Bachelor's or Graduate

18%

Other4%

Where the Minimum Education Level was specified

Green Jobs by Minimum Education Level Oregon, 2008

So, where are we now?

Brief Overview of today’s economy

Oregon unemployment has fallen more than2 percentage points since the peak of 11.6% in 2009, but still sits above the U.S. rate.

Oregon’s May Unemployment Rate In 2011: 9.3%

In 2010: 10.9%

In 2009: 11.6%

In 2008: 5.7%

This recession’s unemployment rate peaked at 11.6% in Oregon, slightly below the 12.1% of the early ‘80s.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t Ra

te (S

ea

so

na

lly A

dju

ste

d)

Oregon Unemployment Rate Typically Higher Than U.S.(Bars Represent NBER Recessions)

Oregon United States

Source: Oregon Employment Department and National Bureau of Economic Research

12.1% in December 1982 and January 1983

11.6% in May and June 2009

The unemployment rates in rural areas is still well above urban areas.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Jan-90 Sep-92 May-95 Jan-98 Sep-00 May-03 Jan-06 Sep-08 May-11

Per

cen

t of

Lab

or

Fo

rce

Oregon Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Non-Metro

Bend, Corvallis, Euguene, Medford and Salem

Portland

Similar to the trend in unemployment rates, the number of unemployed persons is declining.

Oregon’s May Unemployed Count:

In 2011: 185,540

In 2010: 216,162

In 2009: 231,821

In 2008: 110,601

Note: this decrease has nothing to do with individuals exhausting their unemployment insurance benefits.

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Unemployed Persons, Oregon Statewide, Seasonally Adjusted1999 to Present

Nearly 200,000 unemployed Oregonians is certainly nothing to celebrate.

179,201

Only 28,500 below year-ago levels.

Factors: steady in-migration; re-entrants to labor market; labor force growing faster than employment.

Note: this decrease has nothing to do with individuals exhausting their unemployment insurance benefits.

60,000

110,000

160,000

210,000

260,000

Jan-76 Jan-79 Jan-82 Jan-85 Jan-88 Jan-91 Jan-94 Jan-97 Jan-00 Jan-03 Jan-06 Jan-09

Oregon Total UnemploymentNot Seasonally Adjusted

March 2009's 243,357 unemployed was the all-time record for Oregon.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesEastern Oregon (Regions 12, 13 and 14) Trend Analysis 2001-2010*

Eastern Oregon Labor Force Covered Employment (Reported Jobs)

Eastern Oregon Unemployment Rate

* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls

Between 2007 and 2010 the Eastern Oregon (Regions 12, 13 and 14) area saw its labor force grow by 6.3% while losing 3.5% of its jobs.

Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 5% while its number of jobs remained virtually unchanged

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesWillamette Valley / I - 5 Corridor (Regions 2, 3, 5, 15 plus Linn, Benton and Columbia Counties)

Trend Analysis 2001-2010*

Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor Labor ForceCovered Employment (Reported Jobs) WV/I-5Willamette Valley/I-5 Corridor Unemployment Rate

* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls

Between 2007 and 2010 the Willamette Valey / I - 5 Corridor (Regions 2, 3, 5, 15 plus Benton, Columbia & Linn Counties) Area saw its labor force grow by 3.6% while reporting a decline of 7% of its jobs.

Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 7.7% and lost just under 1% of its jobs.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesOregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook Counties)

Trend Analysis 2001-2010*

Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook) Labor Force

Covered Employment (Reported Jobs) Oregon Coast

Oregon Coast Unemployment Rate

* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls

Between 2007 and 2010 the Oregon Coast (Clatsop, Coos, Curry, Lincoln & Tillamook Counties) area saw its labor force grow by almost 4% while losing nearly 7% of its jobs.

Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 11% and added 3.5% more jobs.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesCentral Oregon (Regions 9 & 10)

Trend Analysis 2001-2010*

Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10) Labor ForceCovered Employment (Reported Jobs) Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10)Central Oregon (Regions 9 and 10) Unemployment Rate

* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls

Between 2007 and 2010 the Central Oregon (Regions 9 & 10) area saw its labor force grow by 1.5% while losing over 11% of its jobs.

Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 21% while adding 10% more jobs.

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Dynamics Between Jobs, Labor Force and Unemployment RatesSouthern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11)

Trend Analysis 2001-2010*

Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) Labor ForceCovered Employment (Reported Jobs) Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11)Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) Unemployment Rate

* 2010 Data is PreliminarySource: Employment Department and BLS - Note Data from 2005 forward was subject to revisions, reestimations and new state controls

Between 2007 and 2010 the Southern Oregon (Regions 6, 8 and 11) area saw its labor force grow by just under 1% while losing nearly 11% of its jobs.

Since 2001 the labor force in this area increased by 7.5% and lost 2.1% of its jobs. Most of them during the recession.

Survey data make it clear the “additional” unemployed came from layoffs, which have slowed.

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Oregon CPS Unemployment by Reason [Trend]

Entrants

Job Leavers

Job Losers

How to help the long-term unemployed is one of the biggest challenges we face.

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Oregon CPS Duration of Unemployment [Trend], in weeks

Less than 5 weeks5 to 14 weeks15 to 26 weeks27 to 51 weeks52 weeks or more

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-

97

May

-97

Sep-9

7

Jan-

98

May

-98

Sep-9

8

Jan-

99

May

-99

Sep-9

9

Jan-

00

May

-00

Sep-0

0

Jan-

01

May

-01

Sep-0

1

Jan-

02

May

-02

Sep-0

2

Jan-

03

May

-03

Sep-0

3

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Cyclical Unemployment

Seasonal Unemployment

Full Employment

Frictional Unemployment

Structural Unemployment

Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates means that we remove the seasonal ups and downs by removing the average annual increases / decreases common to the season from the data.

Types of Unemployment

Currently, two in five unemployed Oregonians has been jobless for 27 weeks or longer.

Long-term unemployment trend since 2002:

Fewest: 10,800 in January 2007

Peaked: 101,200 in June 2010

Current: 74,000 in May 2011

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11

Inc

ide

nc

e o

f U

ne

mp

loy

me

nt,

Ore

go

n S

tate

wid

e

Unemployed 26 weeks or less

Unemployed 27 weeks or longer

The long-term unemployed:

74,000 Oregonians in May 2011

45 percent of unemployed population

Source: Local Area Unemployment Statistics

Some employers may be hesitant to hire applicants who are unemployed…

During the annual conference of the Oregon Employer Council, attendees were asked what reasons, if any, might prevent them from hiring the long-term unemployed. Responses included:

•The long-term unemployed may have a bad attitude and/or lack motivation.•They may lack interview skills and/or do not properly prepare for an interview.•In some cases, the laid-off “weren’t the cream of the crop” to begin with.•Their skills may have become stale.•In some cases, they lack soft skills, i.e. time management, self-confidence, acting as a team player.

…but job seekers can address some of those concerns.

The majority of employers said they would consider hiring the long-term unemployed if they …

• … have the skill set to fill the position.• … were doing something productive - volunteering, attending school, homemaking - during their period of unemployment

•(It was noted that it’s very important the long-term unemployed note these activities on their resume; otherwise, they don’t get to the interview and don’t have the opportunity to describe what they’ve done)

• … have a reasonable reason as to why they’ve been unemployed.

Reducing the unemployment rate?Based on OEA population projections and current labor force participation rate:

Steady: Average of +1,500 jobs per month keeps rate at 9.6%

Decline: Need to average +3,500 per month to reach 6.6% by 2015.

Current: Average of +4,100 per month between October 2010 and April 2011

Note: changes in the rate of Baby Boomer retirements, in-migration to Oregon, and labor force participation have effects on these scenarios.

6.0%

6.5%

7.0%

7.5%

8.0%

8.5%

9.0%

9.5%

10.0%

10.5%

11.0%

Apr.2011

July Jan.2012

July Jan.2013

July Jan.2014

July Jan.2015

Un

em

plo

ymen

t Ra

te

Oregon's Unemployment Under Various Employment Growth Scenarios

Steady Unemployment Rate OEA Forecast, May 2011

9.6 Percent

6.6 Percent

+ 1,500 jobs per month

+ 3,500 jobs per month

Source: Oregon Employment Department using May OEA Economic and Revenue Forecast

Men experienced a more dramatic increase in unemployment than women in recent years.

0%

4%

8%

12%

16%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Average Annual Unemployment Rates by GenderOregon, 1999-2010

Men

Women

Source: Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/lau

Unemployment also varies by age groups, especially for relatively young workers.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Average Annual Unemployment by Age Category Oregon, 1999-2010

16 to 24 years 25 to 54 years

55 years and over Total population

Source: Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/lau

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rates vary from Gilliam County’s 5.6% to Crook County’s 15.1%. Twenty of Oregon’s 36 counties have rates below 10.0%.

Unemployment Below 10% in 20 of Oregon's 36 CountiesMay 2011, Seasonally Adjusted

Unemployment Rates

5.6% to 7.9%

8.0% to 9.9%

10.0% to 11.9%

12.0% to 15.1%

0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 15% 18%

Gilliam

Benton

Hood River

Washington

Morrow

Clatsop

Multnomah

Polk

Wasco

Clackamas

Wallowa

Klamath

Deschutes

Josephine

Lake

Jefferson

Douglas

Grant

Harney

Crook

Oregon Unemployment: Ten Highest / Lowest County Rates

May 2011

Total employment has also shown some growth …

Up by 55,600 since the most recent low in October 2009.

Includes farm jobs, self-employed, based on place of residence … so includes Oregonians who work in Washington or elsewhere.

The strong job growth seen this winter has slowed.

From September to March:

Private sector: +28,700

Government: +500

Average monthly nonfarm employment gain: +4,300 jobs

From March to May:

Private sector: +2,700

Government: -300

Average monthly nonfarm employment gain: +100 jobs

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Oregon's Monthly Job Growth/Declineseasonally adjusted

Recession of Dec. 2007 - June 2009

Employment loss started March 2008

Strongest monthlygrowth since 1996!

Employment Low PointDecember 2009

For the eight month in a row, Oregon has more jobs today than it did a year ago.

-140,000

-120,000

-100,000

-80,000

-60,000

-40,000

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

Jan-07 Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11

Oregon's Year-Over-Year Job Growth/Declineseasonally adjusted

The last few months have included some decent news. But … we have to keep things in perspective. It’s a long climb back.

-45,000

-40,000

-35,000

-30,000

-25,000

-20,000

-15,000

-10,000

-5,000

0

Jobs

Los

t....

-19.5%

-10.5%

-10.6%-10.6%

-7.2%-13.5%

Job losses from each industry's post-2001 recession peak to May 2011.

Manufacturing and construction have led Oregon's job losses.

-11.7%

-34.3%

-6.8%

More ads now than any month since recession start.

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

He

lp W

an

ted

On

line

Ad

s (in

tho

usa

nd

s)

January 2008 - May 2011

The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data Series(Seasonally Adjusted)

Oregon - Total Ads Oregon - New Ads

Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLineTM (HWOL)

Oregon’s job postings tend to mirror national trends.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

He

lp W

an

ted

On

line

Ad

s In

de

x

December 2007 - May 2011

The Conference Board's Help-Wanted Online Data SeriesTotal Ads Index (December 2007 = 100)

US Index

OR Index

Source: The Conference Board Help Wanted OnLineTM (HWOL)

December 2009 was the recessionary employment trough, but there wasn’t much growth until October 2010.

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Em

plo

ymen

t

Seasonally Adjusted Employment in OregonTotal Nonfarm Payroll: 1990 - 2011

Employment down 113,900 (-6.5%) frompeak in February 2008.

Employment low point was December 2009.

Employment now up 34,200 since then.

The private sector shed more than 150,000 jobs during this recession. It’s added jobs in six of the last seven months and we’ve now gained back 34,500.

1,000,000

1,100,000

1,200,000

1,300,000

1,400,000

1,500,000

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Em

plo

ymen

t

Seasonally Adjusted Employment in OregonTotal Private Sector: 1990 - 2011

Private sector employment now 34,500 above the December 2009 recessionary low of 1,293,100.

-2.5

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11

Source: Current Employment Statistics, Oregon Employment Department

Year-over-Year Change in Average Weekly HoursOregon, All Private Employees

31.5

32.0

32.5

33.0

33.5

34.0

34.5

35.0

35.5

Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-08 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11

Source: Current Employment Statistics, Oregon Employment Department

Average Weekly Hours of All Private EmployeesOregon, January 2007 - May 2011

The year-over-year picture in the private sector is a lot more positive than it’s been in a while …

-8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000

Mining and logging

Construction

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Transportation, warehousing, and utilities

Information

Financial activities

Professional and business services

Educational services

Health care and social assistance

Leisure and hospitality

Other services

Federal government

State government

Local government

Oregon Nonmanufacturing Employment in May 2011Comparison with One Year Ago

We’ve tended to grow faster than the US in the good times, but lose more jobs (relative to our size) in the tough times.

1,500,000

1,550,000

1,600,000

1,650,000

1,700,000

1,750,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Oregon and US Employment Trends*2003 to Current: US Trend Indexed to July 2003

Oregon

U.S. Trend

* Seasonally Adjusted

Where do we go from here? Job losses generally ended – in a “net” sense – in the fourth quarter of 2009. But we don’t regain pre-recession employment levels until the 1st quarter of 2014.

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,000

1990:1 1992:1 1994:1 1996:1 1998:1 2000:1 2002:1 2004:1 2006:1 2008:1 2010:1 2012:1 2014:1 2016:1

Em

plo

ym

en

t (T

ho

us

an

ds

)

Moving Beyond Recession … Oregon Total Employment

We are here

4th Quarter 2009

1st Quarter 2014

Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesMay 2011

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Em

plo

ym

en

t (T

ho

us

an

ds

)

Moving Beyond Recession … Industry by Industry

Government

Educational and Health Services

Professional and Business Services

Retail Trade

Leisure and Hospitality

Manufacuturing

Financial Activities

We are here

Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesMay 2011

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Em

plo

ym

en

t (T

ho

us

an

ds

)

Moving Beyond Recession … Industry by Industry

Construction

Wholesale Trade

Other Services

Transp, Warehouse, Utilities

Information

Mining and Logging

We are here

Source: Office of Economic Analysis, Department of Administrative ServicesMay 2011

Forecast calls for slow but steady growth.

-45,000

-35,000

-25,000

-15,000

-5,000

5,000

15,000

25,000

35,000

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Oregon Nonfarm EmploymentQuarterly Change

Projected (2nd quarter 2011

forward)

2001-2003Recession

1990-1991Recession

Source: Office of Economic Analysis, May 2011 forecast.

Job growth is expected in most industries…

-6,000 -4,000 -2,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000

Professional and Business Services

Health Care and Social Assistance

Leisure and Hospitality

Retail Trade

Wholesale Trade

Financial Activities

Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities

Metals and Machinery

Information

Other Services

Construction

Educational Services

Transportation Equipment

Computer and Electronics

Other Nondurables

Wood Products

Natural Resources and Mining

Other Durables

Federal Government

State Government

Local Government

Expected Job Changes by Industry Sector Over The Year(1Q 2011 - 1Q 2012)

Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, May 2011

…but it won’t cover those lost in the recession.

-40,000 -30,000 -20,000 -10,000 0 10,000 20,000

Health Care and Social Assistance

State Government

Educational Services

Professional and Business Services

Information

Other Services

Federal Government

Natural Resources and Mining

Leisure and Hospitality

Computer and Electronics

Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities

Metals and Machinery

Wholesale Trade

Other Durables

Other Nondurables

Transportation Equipment

Local Government

Financial Activities

Wood Products

Retail Trade

Construction

Real and Expected Job Changes by Industry SectorSorted by Net Job Change

Jobs Lost Since Start of Recession*(1Q 2008 - 1Q 2011)

Job Change This Year(1Q 2011 - 1Q 2012)

Source: OED analysis using OEA Forecast, May 2011

* Industries that added jobs are set to zero.

Oregon’s Current Rankings: May 2011

Unemployment Rates:

Highest: Nevada (12.1%)Lowest: North Dakota (3.2%)

Oregon: 9.3%

Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment:

Highest: North Dakota (3.9%)Lowest: New Mexico (-0.8%)

Oregon: 1.2%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

Unemployment Rate(seasonally adjusted)

Year/YearJob Growth

Unemployment and Nonfarm Payroll Growth: All 50 States and D.C.May 2011

Oregon's ranking

The blue field shows the range of rates for all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

16th

7th

Oregon was among the top 10 states for highest unemployment from September 2008 to April 2011.

Oregon’s year-over-year nonfarm employment growth is among the top 10 for all states.

-3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4%

New Mexico (51st)

Nevada (46th)

Idaho (30th)

United States

California (21st)

Washington (17th)

Oregon (7th)

Nebraska (3rd)

Texas (2nd)

North Dakota (1st)

Percent Job Growth, May 2010 to May 2011

Oregon Ranks 7th in Job GrowthSelected States, Total Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, not seasonally adjusted data.

Are there industries that are more susceptible to changes in the economy?

Yes!During an economic downturn there are a few industries that tend to be the first impacted by economic change:

• Durable goods (cars, furniture, TV’s, etc)• Financial Sector, particularly investments• Construction• Real Estate• Warehouse, distribution and freight transportation • Hospitality, particularly lodging and travel• Non-essential services (landscaping, massages, dry cleaning, etc.)• Non-essential retail (most of retail)

Are there industries that are generally more “resistant” to economic changes?

YES!

There are a few industries that by their nature as essential services and goods are more resistant to economic changes:

• Healthcare• Essential non-durable goods (Clothes, food, energy, parts, etc)• Retail (particularly those sectors associated with essential goods or

services)

Are there industries that tend to thrive in economic downturns?

YES!

In economic downturns, there are industries that thrive more than in good economic times, usually because they benefit from federal monetary policy designed to facilitate economic activity in the form of credit, others in response to peoples desire to be distracted from the concerns of tough economic times.

• Education• Government• Maintenance and Repair• Entertainment and recreation

Are there any industries that are 100% impervious to economic change?

NO!

Any industry is susceptible to economic changes, even industries considered “recession resistant”.

Even “water proof” watches are only “water proof” to certain amount of depth or length of exposure.

There are recession resistant attitudes and behaviors.

People who are proactive about their careers tend to fair better than people who react to situations

as they happen.

However!!!

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-

97

May

-97

Sep-9

7

Jan-

98

May

-98

Sep-9

8

Jan-

99

May

-99

Sep-9

9

Jan-

00

May

-00

Sep-0

0

Jan-

01

May

-01

Sep-0

1

Jan-

02

May

-02

Sep-0

2

Jan-

03

May

-03

Sep-0

3

Jan-

04

May

-04

Sep-0

4

Jan-

05

May

-05

Sep-0

5

Jan-

06

May

-06

Sep-0

6

Jan-

07

May

-07

Sep-0

7

Cyclical Unemployment

Full Employment

How Do Businesses React To Changes In Unemployment?

When Unemployment is High

(over 6%)

Demand for skills goes up

Wages offered tend to drop

EMPLOYER’S MARKET

When Unemployment is Low

(over 5%)

Demand for skills goes down

Wages offered tend to go up

JOB SEEKER’S MARKET

IMPORTANT!

A trend is a change over time. It takes six or more months of unemployment data to determine if it is going up or down!

WorkSource Oregon Employment Department’sLabor Market Information Web Site

www.qualityinfo.org

THANK YOU

MALCOLM BOSWELLWorkforce Analyst

Multnomah CountyTel (503) 666 - 1985 EXT. 309Malcolm.G.Boswell@state.or.us