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SUP-150Y

PATHS OF DISCOVERY AND CONFIRMATION:

THEORY, THEORY OF CHANGE AND RESEARCH DESIGN

THEORY OF CHANGEor LOGIC MODEL

Behind every program/intervention there is a theory Often not explicit Theory of change

One of your first tasks is to articulate the theory of change

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THINKING ABOUT THEORIES

Interrelated assumptions, principles, and/or propositions and hypotheses to explain or guide the analysis.

A sequence of “if this, then this” statementsWorking out the details of our underlying

“theories” forces us to confront our assumptions

Why do we think this intervention will have the intended outcome?

What does this assume about the behaviors of individuals, groups or institutions?

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THEORY OF CHANGE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE STATE WELFARE AGENCY

If pregnant or parentingteens apply for public assistance, then

Then, they very likely have needs that will be met less effectively by DTA programs than by programs oriented to serving children, youth and their families offered by DSS. If we refer them to DSS

If they go to DSS, then they will be offered a place to live and supportive services.

If they accept a residential placement,they will receive supports and services that improve their health, the health of their child, their parenting skills, and their job skills

If they remain in the residential placement and accept the services offered, they will be more effective parents and more productive citizens, less likely to need public assistance in the future

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THEORY OF CHANGE FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF SOCIAL SERVICES

If pregnant or parentingteens applying for public assistance enter a residential facility, then

Then, DSS will provide services to the teen and her child

If the teen participates in DSS provided services, then provide services, then…

Then, the teen will establish a better relationship with the child’s father

Then the baby will have a healthy birth

Then the teen will be a more effective parent

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THE LOGIC MODEL FOR DSS If we provide services: (INPUTS)

1. Familial atmosphere; structure & discipline; experienced staff; community volunteers; high quality facilities; transportation; culturally & linguistically appropriate services

2. Parenting instruction & practice, mentors, counseling, outreach to fathers, abortion & adoption counseling

3. Medical care, child care

4. Life skills instruction, structure to independence, aging out services, follow-up services

5. High School, job training, part-time work

Then teen residents will take advantage of them (PROCESS)

If teens take advantage of these services, then teens will (OUTPUTS/OUTCOMES)1. Feel comfortable and actively

participate2. Become more effective parents

and make mature decisions about child bearing and child spacing

3. Continue to be integrated with their families and their child’s father, where appropriate

4. Be physically healthy, emotionally stable and school ready, as will their children

5. Know and practice good life management skills

6. Graduate from high school and move toward economic self-sufficiency

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THEORIES OF CHANGE IN OTHER PAES NYPD: ASSESSING THE EMPIRICAL

EFFECTS OF A PILOT PROGRAM ON RECORDED INTERROGATIONS

UNDERSTANDING HOUSING IN BOSTON

DISMANTLING THE CRADLE TO PRISON PIPELINE

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HOW DO I MOVE FROM A THEORY OF CHANGE TO A RESEARCH DESIGN?

Begin by clarifying and operationalizing your research question

What is the primary question?

What are the sub-questions? (Secondary questions?)

What information or data would I need to answer this question? These sub-questions?

How and where will I find that information?

How will I assess the reliability and validity of the information I find?

Will I be able to answer this question and all the sub-questions given my skills, time limitations and resource limitations?

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THE POLICY ANALYSIS MODEL CONTRIBUTES TO IMPROVED ASSESSMENTS

Focuses our attention on the client’s question

Addresses the values question: What are the characteristics of the outcome we want? The processes we want?

What sources of information can we draw on?

How do we make decisions? What will we recommend?

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BASIC PAE QUESTION TYPES

NEEDS ASSESSMENT

DESIGN A NEW PROGRAM OR DEVELOP A SOLUTION TO A KNOWN PROBLEM

IMPROVE THE PERFORMANCE OF A PROGRAM, AGENCY, ORGANIZATIONAL UNIT, ETC.

DESIGN OR CONDUCT AN EVALUATION OF A PROGRAM OR POLICY OPTION

DEVELOP A STRATEGIC PLAN FOR MORE EFFECTIVELY USING INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES

DEVELOP A MARKETING/POLITICAL ADVOCACY CAMPAIGN

REPLICATE A PROGRAM, TAKE A PROGRAM TO SCALE

DESIGN A STRATEGY FOR MEASURING PROGRAM/AGENCY PERFORMANCE

POLICY ANALYSIS IS HARD

Even if you can: Identify good research questions; Gather good data; and Develop a process map of key steps

You still have to answer some difficult questions: Why do you think this outcome will happen? What does it assume about the behavior of:

Individuals? Groups? Institutions?

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