summit diplomacy: some ‘lessons’ from history prof. david reynolds (cambridge university)...
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SUMMIT DIPLOMACY: SOME ‘LESSONS’ FROM HISTORY
Prof. David Reynolds(Cambridge University)
History and Policy Lecture
Gresham’s College, 4 June 2013
ON THE WORLD STAGE
TOP LEVEL, HIGH STAKES
BUT ROOTED IN DAILY LIFE
NOT TO MENTION . . .
SO SUMMITRY
•Draws on skills we use every day.
•But the fate of nations hangs on the outcome.
ADVICE FROM THE PAST • ‘It is not easy to see how things could be worsened by a
parley at the summit.’ (Winston Churchill, 14 Feb. 1950)
• ‘It is far better that we should meet at the summit than at the brink.’ (John F. Kennedy, 1 Oct. 1959)
• ‘It is always the same with these conferences . . . The Great Men don’t know what they are talking about and have to be educated.’ (Alexander Cadogan, Yalta, 6 Feb. 1945)
• ‘If great princes have a desire to continue friends, in my judgement they ought never to meet.’ (Philippe de Commines, c. 1490)
BUT VIEWED HISTORICALLY
• Leaders did not usually engage in direct negotiation . . .
SECURITYRouen, 1419
STATUSCanossa, 1077
BUREAUCRATIZATION
THE LEADER AS STATESMAN
• Essentially a 20th-century idea.
• Especially from the 1930s . . .
MADE POSSIBLE BY AIR TRAVEL
MADE NECESSARY BY WMD
MADE INTO HOUSEHOLD NEWS BY THE MASS MEDIA
SINCE THE COLD WAR . . .
• Fewer opportunities for dramatic personal interventions . . .
CONSTANT COMMUNICATION
DIVERSIFIED THREATS
INDIVIDUALIZED MEDIA
INSTITUTIONALIZED DIPLOMACY
IN THE 21ST CENTURY
• Less scope for personal diplomacy.
• But still some ‘lessons’ from history.
1. KNOW ‘THE OTHER’
• Vienna, June 1961
• Kennedy (b. 1917)
• Khrushchev (b. 1894)
2. THINK POLITICS
• Nassau, 1962
• Skybolt → Polaris
3. BEWARE NODS & WINKS
• Blair & Bush
• Iraq War, 2002-3
4. WATCH YOUR STEREOTYPES
• Thatcher & Kohl
5. TEAMWORK
• Reagan & Gorbachev
• Shultz & Shevardnadze
• + Interpreters
6. PLAY IT LONG
• John Major & Albert Reynolds, 1993
• Tony Blair & Bertie Ahern, 1998
HISTORY AND POLICY?
• 1. Case studies from the past that may ring bells for current leaders.
• 2. A larger sense of process, beyond normal short-termism.
• 3. History is not a body of facts. But a way of thinking – ‘thinking in time’.
THINKING IN TIME
• The Key Question is . . .
• NOT ‘What’s the problem?’
• BUT ‘What’s the story?’
• ‘How did we get into this mess?’
• To help see how to get out of it.