summer 2011 newsletter (individuals)

4
Aſter strong first-quarter gains in the stock markets, it was mostly downhill from there. Following April’s year-to-date highs, when the Russell 2000 hit its highest level on record, week aſter week of declines battered all four U.S. indices. However, a rally in June’s final week leſt the Dow industrials the only one of the four major indices with a gain for the quarter, taking the lead from the small caps for 2011’s first half. Aſter breaking below 1,300, the S&P 500 barely managed to claw its way back to that level just before crossing the quarter’s finish line, though it was negative for the quarter. e Russell 2000 suffered the most as investors preferred the reassurance of defensive sectors and large caps, while the NASDAQ escaped with barely a scratch. Meanwhile, saddled with Greece’s woes, the Global Dow continued to stagger. Greece’s debt problems caused investors to decide that despite the United States’ budgetary woes, Treasuries didn’t look so bad aſter all. As demand pushed prices up, yields on the 10-year fell below 3% before rebounding a bit. BEACON HILL INVESTMENT ADVISORY Summer 2011 84 South Fourth Street, Columbus, OH 43215 (614) 469-4685 [email protected] www.beaconhilladvisory.com This Just In — Ohio Estate Tax Update Governor Kasich signed into law the State budget which repealed the Ohio estate tax beginning January 1, 2013. Though you will no longer be required to pay Ohio estate taxes after 2012, it is necessary to continue reviewing and monitoring your estate plan. Taxes are only one aspect of comprehensive estate planning to ensure your goals and objectives are satisfied. A Review of the Markets Market/Index 2010 Close As of 3/31 End of Quarter Quarterly Change YTD Change DJIA 11577.51 12319.73 12414.34 .77% 7.23% NASDAQ 2652.87 2781.07 2773.52 -.27% 4.55% S&P 500 1257.64 1325.83 1320.64 -.39% 5.01% Russell 2000 783.65 843.55 827.43 -1.91% 5.59% Global Dow 2087.44 2186.41 2134.29 -2.38% 2.24% Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps 10-year Treasuries 3.30% 3.47% 3.18% -29 bps -12 bps

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Page 1: Summer 2011 Newsletter (Individuals)

QuarterlyAfter strong first-quarter gains in the stock markets, it was mostly downhill from there. Following April’s year-to-date highs, when the Russell 2000 hit its highest level on record, week after week of declines battered all four U.S. indices. However, a rally in June’s final week left the Dow industrials the only one of the four major indices with a gain for the quarter, taking the lead from the small caps for 2011’s first half.

After breaking below 1,300, the S&P 500 barely managed to claw its way back to that level just before crossing the quarter’s finish

line, though it was negative for the quarter. The Russell 2000 suffered the most as investors preferred the reassurance of defensive sectors and large caps, while the NASDAQ escaped with barely a scratch. Meanwhile, saddled with Greece’s woes, the Global Dow continued to stagger.

Greece’s debt problems caused investors to decide that despite the United States’ budgetary woes, Treasuries didn’t look so bad after all. As demand pushed prices up, yields on the 10-year fell below 3% before rebounding a bit.

B E A C O N H I L L I N V E S T M E N T A D V I S O RY

Summer 2011

84 South Fourth Street, Columbus, OH 43215 • (614) 469-4685 • [email protected] • www.beaconhilladvisory.com

This Just In — Ohio Estate Tax Update

Governor Kasich signed into law the State budget which repealed the Ohio estate tax beginning January 1, 2013. Though you will no longer be required to pay Ohio estate taxes after 2012, it is necessary to continue reviewing and monitoring your estate plan. Taxes are only one aspect of comprehensive estate planning to ensure your goals and objectives are satisfied.

A Review of the Markets

Market/Index 2010 Close As of 3/31 End of Quarter Quarterly Change YTD Change

DJIA 11577.51 12319.73 12414.34 .77% 7.23%

NASDAQ 2652.87 2781.07 2773.52 -.27% 4.55%

S&P 500 1257.64 1325.83 1320.64 -.39% 5.01%

Russell 2000 783.65 843.55 827.43 -1.91% 5.59%

Global Dow 2087.44 2186.41 2134.29 -2.38% 2.24%

Fed. Funds .25% .25% .25% 0 bps 0 bps

10-year Treasuries 3.30% 3.47% 3.18% -29 bps -12 bps

Page 2: Summer 2011 Newsletter (Individuals)

Summer 2011

• The financial markets heaved a sigh of relief as the Greek parliament agreed to implement a €28 billion, five-year program of spending cuts, tax increases, and asset sales. European leaders said the measures were a condition for receipt of the next slice of existing aid before key bond payments in July. Despite differences over whether and how to let bondholders such as banks suffer losses on Greek debt, the country’s European colleagues said Greece would likely receive a new aid package.

• U.S. economic growth continued, but at a much slower pace. The Bureau of Economic Analysis said gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 1.9% compared to the previous quarter’s 3.1%.

• Consumer inflation over the last year hit 3.6%, though the Bureau

of Labor Statistics said volatile food and energy costs were responsible for more than half of that. However, oil prices fell back to roughly $90 a barrel, helped by the release of some of the world’s strategic reserves in the wake of ongoing conflict in oil-rich Libya.

• The nation maxed out its credit card as it went over the current $14.3 trillion debt ceiling in May. Treasury officials warned that accounting measures could postpone the day of reckoning until August 2, but that after that date the Treasury will face the question of which bills go unpaid. As the clock kept ticking, congressional leaders argued over whether spending cuts, tax increases, or some combination of the two would be required before raising the limit on how much the Treasury can borrow to pay existing obligations.

• The Federal Reserve’s bond-buying program, nicknamed QE2, came to an end on schedule. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Fed will continue to reinvest the proceeds of existing holdings, and that those efforts will end before the Fed raises interest rates. It also forecast slower economic growth (2.7%-2.9%) for the rest of the year, but said some of the causes of the sluggishness should be temporary.

• Unemployment rose slightly to just over 9% during the quarter, consumers were slower to spend, housing continued to struggle, and retail sales were hurt by supply-chain problems in the auto industry caused by the spring’s Japanese disasters.

Quarterly Economic Perspective

Source: Forefield Inc.

Page 3: Summer 2011 Newsletter (Individuals)

1. Your Plan A disciplined approach requires the use of an

Investment Policy Statement. Even if you’re a Do-It Yourselfer, a written approach to your investment philosophy will help you stay the course. Things that should be included are

a) your strategic (long-term) asset allocation,

b) whether you will make any tactical shifts based on your analysis,

c) expected losses during the inevitable downturn, and

d) your approach to rebalancing (whether you do it through tactical adjustments, on a calendar basis, or when assets exceed some predetermined level).

2. Asset Allocation Your current asset allocation will drive your potential

returns and your actual risk. How much do you have in stocks, bonds, and cash? If you do not make tactical adjustments through time, you need to rebalance as growth in one asset class or the other can throw your allocation out of whack. Use of a software system to review this will save you many hours.

3. Savings Rate Frankly, if you save $50 per month and have no outside

assets, asset allocation and rebalancing strategies won’t save you from being a hostage to social security. If you are in the accumulation phase, are you saving enough to accomplish your goals?

Figure out how much income you’ll need in retirement, subtract your social security calculation you receive annually (with an appropriate discount if you’re concerned about those benefits being cut) and apply your future portfolio to see if it can fill the gap. Your future portfolio will be able to create an income stream of about 5% of its principal with inflation adjustments if managed properly.

While there are many other variables, don’t let the pursuit of the “perfect” plan get in the way of at least creating an adequate plan.

Hint: if you’re not saving at least 10-15% of your current income and you do not have a windfall or other assets, it’s very likely you’re not going to make it.

w w w. b e a c o n h i l l a d v i s o r y. c o m

Mid-year Portfolio Checkup

A slew of economic events has occurred in the first half of 2011, and with it comes portfolio changes. With the end of the Fed’s bond purchases (“QE2”) and the Greek austerity measures behind us (for now), it’s a great time for a review of your portfolio. A few simple things to look at…

Page 4: Summer 2011 Newsletter (Individuals)

w w w. b e a c o n h i l l a d v i s o r y. c o m

84 South Fourth StreetColumbus, OH 43215

Strategic Wealth Management Process TM

This Quarter: ProtectionThis quarter’s topic, Protection, uncovers gaps within our clients’ insurance needs. Going beyond a simple life insurance snapshot, we analyze scenarios in which disability could occur or potential longterm care needs arise. As you can imagine, it’s burdensome for the family if these issues are not addressed. If additional needs are required, we coordinate a competitive bid from multiple providers.

Next Quarter: Tax Efficiency

Protection

Life Insurance

Disability

Umbrella/Liability

Long-term Care

Mark Fissel, RFC Clint Edgington, CFA