On Monday, April 10 in the John F.Kennedy Jr. Forum, William Kristol,founding editor of the Weekly Standardand a former Kennedy School faculty mem-ber, squared off against John Deutch, formerdirector of the Central Intelligence Agency,MIT professor, and a member of the BelferCenter Board of Directors, in a lively andilluminating debate about Iraq: should westay or withdraw? Belfer Center DirectorGraham Allison moderated the discussion.

One of the great tragedies ofour time was how incorrect theintelligence assessments were.

April’s event was a rematch of a debatebetween the two in the spring of 2002—beforethe U.S. attacked Saddam Hussein. The ques-tion then was whether the U.S. should invadeIraq. In that Forum, Kristol called for topplingHussein and Deutch argued that the U.S. wasnot prepared to secure the country afterwards.

Four years on, Kristol argued that we muststay the course to victory. Deutch said Amer-ica’s military presence is making things worseand the situation will further deteriorate thelonger U.S. forces stay on the ground.

Should the United States stay in Iraq?Kristol: “We have to win the war. We can winthe war . . . Withdrawal would be disastrous. . . . We would look weak.”

U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman, rankingmember of the Senate Committee onEnergy and Natural Resources, joined theBelfer Center’s John Holdren, Robert Stavinsand other experts at a Harvard conference in

Holdren Center Stage with Bingaman in Climate Change Efforts

Deutch: “Withdraw immedi-ately . . . Iraq was a mistakegoing in and it’s a mistake tostay. . . . For our nationalinterest, we should leave.”

Has progress been madetoward American goals?Kristol: “Progress has beenmade. They have an electedgovernment. They’re buildingup military forces. Their armyhas held together pretty well . . . We have recently reducedcasualties.”

Deutch: “We have made noprogress on key objectives. Thenational government is notpulling together. There is nosecurity in the country. Mili-tants are killing people. Therehas been no improvement ininfrastructure—water, food,health, or oil production. . . . Our Army andMarine Corps are hollowed out.”

What if the U.S. does leave?Kristol: “The perception would be that wewere driven out by the terrorists. That wouldbe horrible for our national interest.”

Deutch: “On the contrary, terrorists are beingattracted to Iraq because of our presence thereand because of the insurrection.”

March to assess climate change legislation. Theconference, “New Prospects for ClimateChange Regulations,” was sponsored by theHarvard Environmental Law Program.

Holdren, director of the Belfer Center’s Sci-ence, Technology, and Public Policy Program,and co-chair of the National Commission on

Summer 2006 www.belfercenter.org

Debate on Iraq: What Should the U.S. Do Now?

Will Iran Create aNuclear Cascade?

In This Issue –

Iran from an Iranian’s Perspective ..........page 3

Kennedy School in New Orleans ......page 5–6

Space Security: Charting a New Course ...........................................page 7

Finding Solutions for Sudan...................page 15

What Next? Weekly Standard Founder and former KennedySchool Lecturer William Kristol (left) and former CentralIntelligence Agency Director and Belfer Center Board ofDirectors member John Deutch (right) debate “Should WeWithdraw from Iraq Now?” at the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum inApril. Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (center)moderated the lively debate.

Growing DebateKristol and Deutch agreed that in 2002 theyboth thought, incorrectly, that there wereweapons of mass destruction in Iraq. “One ofthe great tragedies of our time,” Deutch said,“was how incorrect those assessments were.”

Debate continues on this critical issuethroughout the Center and Kennedy School.

View the full debate at: http://ksgaccman.har-vard.edu/iop.events_forum_video.asp?ID=2981.

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Energy Policy, has been working with Binga-man and Senator Pete Domenici on manda-tory climate change legislation. The BelferCenter, with the greater Harvard community,is advancing discussion of this issue throughresearch, seminars, and work with members ofCongress.

Time to Act: Science,Technology, and PublicPolicy Director John Holdren (right) at “NewProspects for Climate Change Regulation”conference with U.S. Senator Jeff Bingaman(center), and conference organizer Harvard LawProfessor Jody Freeman.

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At our annual International Councilmeeting, Harvard President LarrySummers began by reminding us that withopportunity comes responsibility. In theworld’s most powerful nation, at the world’smost influential university, he challenged thegroup to ask how the Belfer Center can bestfocus our expertise, knowledge, and resourcesto have the greatest impact for good on themost significant international issues of the era.Over the day and a half of meetings that fol-lowed, members of the InternationalCouncil—a group that provides intellectualcounsel and guidance to the Belfer Center—wrestled with Larry’s question. It is a challengethe Center’s leadership addresses every day.

In early April, William Kristol and JohnDeutch faced off in the Forum for the heavy-weight battle of the semester on Iraq: shouldwe stay or go. Deutch argued that the U.S. hasdone what it can there and that staying longerwill only worsen the consequences for U.S.interests. Kristol argued that despite many mis-takes the U.S. has made to this point, now isnot the time to leave. See “Debate in Iraq”cover story in this newsletter for more on thislively event.

Abbas Maleki (former deputy foreignminister in Iran and senior fellow here) andMatthew Bunn (senior researcher and co-author of the annual report, Securing theBomb) are actively engaging policymakers onthe path ahead on Iran. Working closely withthe new director of our Managing the Atomproject, Jeffrey Lewis, a Center-wide effort isunderway to be helpful to the U.S. and othergovernments around the world as they developsound policies on nonproliferation.

Nonproliferation is also an importantdimension of the debate on America’s Indiapolicy that was clearly laid out during anotherForum event starring Bob Blackwill, formerU.S. ambassador to India, and Xenia Dor-

mandy. They will be following up on anotherrecommendation of the International Council:to find an appropriate way for the Belfer Cen-ter to help both American and Indian policycommunities understand shared national inter-ests and opportunities. They believe, as I do,that India is a natural, often overlooked Amer-ican ally.

The Belfer Center serves the unique role of building

consensus on the most critical questions.

Members of the International Councilhighlighted the negative consequences ofextreme partisanship, now at an all-time high,in the search for policy-relevant solutions.Organizations like the Belfer Center can play aunique role in helping build consensus. BelferCenter Senior Fellow Bob Graham (formerchair of the Senate Intelligence Committee) isleading a groundbreaking effort that includesDoug Bereuter (former Republican Con-gressman and chair of the House Intelli-gence Committee), Juliette Kayyem, andErnest May, to organize a special executiveprogram this summer that will orient newmembers of Congress and staff from both sidesof the aisle on critical intelligence issues.

Former Secretary of State HenryKissinger (one of my mentors when he was aprofessor and I a graduate student decades ago)recently met with a group of students andCenter fellows at the JFK Library to answerquestions about current national security chal-lenges from Iraq to Israel and Palestine.Kissinger reminded students of the necessityfor sound strategy—but the extraordinary dif-ficulty of formulating and sustaining a coher-ent strategy in the highly-politicized conditions

Scholars, Practitioners Delve into Terrorism Causes and Prevention

Lifelong Perspective: Former Secretary ofState Henry Kissinger discusses foreign policywith students from Belfer Center DirectorGraham Allison’s class “Central Issues ofAmerican Foreign Policy.”

2 • BCSIA News

What motivates terrorists? How can weprevent their ranks from growing?What steps should the United States and othercountries take to prevent terrorism?

Belfer Center Director Graham Allison,former Under Secretary of Defense DouglasFeith, and MIT Political Science ProfessorStephen Van Evera are co-chairing a taskforceon strategies for combating terrorism. Thistaskforce succeeds a working group co-chairedby Van Evera and Allison that has met over thepast two years to help sharpen thinking amonga group of experts on the subject of counter-terrorism strategy.

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of government today. This theme has beenilluminated across the agenda by recent visitorsincluding Deputy Secretary of State BobZoellick, former Governor of Virginia MarkWarner, Commander of U.S. Strategic Com-mand James Cartwright, Yale Professor JohnLewis Gaddis, editor of Foreign Policy Moi-ses Naim, Lieutenant General David H.Petraeus, commanding general, U.S. ArmyCombined Arms Center, and Fort Leaven-worth, and Vice Admiral Jake Jacoby, formerdirector of the Defense Intelligence Agency.As Bob Blackwill noted, having been awayfrom government for just a year, it is amazinghow much clearer the challenges are, howmuch more obvious the solutions, and howpetty the obstacles appear.

Please join me in wishing good luck to twodeparting staff members who have contributedso much to the Center’s successes. We will allmiss Cara Fitzpatrick who, for the past twoyears, has managed several hundred board anddirectors’ events at the Center and whose con-tagious smile helps lift all of us every day. Wewill also miss Moira Whelan, our communica-tions director, who has helped tighten linksbetween our research products and the public.We are very sad to see them go, but happy tocelebrate the progress of two more “graduates”of the extended Belfer family.

Within the past severalmonths, the expanded group haspresented and debated a range ofperspectives on strategies forcountering the threat of terrorism.Robert Pape of the University ofChicago presented his findingsthat foreign occupation is a cen-tral determinate of suicide terror-ism. Marc Sageman of theUniversity of Pennsylvania arguedthat religion is an essential com-ponent to understanding the cur-rent international terrorism threat.

Securing the Future: Former Senior Director for Counter-terrorism in the National Security Council Rand Beers(left) makes a point to MIT International RelationsProfessor Stephen Van Evera (right) during a Belfer Centerseminar on the topic in March.(continued on page 11)

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for civilian purposes, pro-vided it accepts the IAEAsafeguards and supervisionwhich are designed to pre-vent the production of mili-tary grade enricheduranium.

Despite these facts,there is widespread concernin the United States,Europe, Russia, China, andIran’s neighbors regardingits nuclear activities, accessto nuclear weapons, andsafety issues that may arisedue to the use of Russiantechnology in the Bushehrpower plant, which is veryclose to the Persian Gulf.

However, pressure from these states in theform of U.S. comprehensive sanctions, the EUsmart sanction, investigations and condemna-tion by the IAEA, and a UN Security Councildemand for a report on Iran’s nuclear activities,have all failed to bear fruit. On the contrary,Iran has followed through on its projects toattain nuclear technology and has completedthe enrichment cycle.

Iranians have no desire for international isolation.

How should we interpret the situation?First, Iran wants recognition, power, and re-admission into international society. Iranianshave no desire for international isolation. Thegovernment of Iran is part of, and must beresponsive to Iran’s society, and that society—scholars, clerics, businessmen, and the middleclass more generally—prefers to conduct itsbusiness in a stable international environment.This means Iran must be part of the globalpicture, and the government has taken thisstep to achieve that goal.

Unfortunately, American threats are notseen as being directed against Iran’s govern-ment but against Iranian people. The same istrue of U.S. sanctions which impact all aspectsof ordinary Iranians’ lives. No one in Tehrancan even purchase by credit card a novel fromamazon.com, due to U.S. sanctions.

Second, the Iranian general public does notconsider the nuclear issue to be of vital impor-tance. Nuclear technology will do little for theaverage Iranians—it cannot create more jobsfor a country which needs a million jobs annu-ally, it cannot change the chronic low effi-ciency, productivity and effectiveness of theeconomy and management, and it will donothing to improve Iran’s commercial ties withthe rest of the world.

Iran: Appearances Can Be Deceiving by Abbas Maleki*

For these reasons, popular support of further efforts are not likely, so the Iranianpolitical elite are not likely to engage in anadventurous and risky undertaking that willput the very existence of their Islamic govern-ment at risk. Iran’s government has a trackrecord of rational action over the last 27 yearsin a turbulent region. Even followingAhmadinejad’s speech, pragmatists within thegovernment have shown a willingness to nego-tiate. Hashemi Rafsanjani, chairman of theExpediency Council, Ali Larijani, secretary ofthe National Security Council, and Moham-mad Reza Bahonar, deputy speaker of the Par-liament, have all publicly stated their readinessto engage in dialogue.

The Iranian political elite are not likely to engage in an

adventurous and risky undertaking that will put the

very existence of their Islamicgovernment at risk.

Shouts of joy and shouts of military oppo-sition should therefore not distract from realopportunities for diplomatic progress amongIran and other nations.

Abbas Maleki is a senior research fellow at theBelfer Center for Science and InternationalAffairs.

Abbas Maleki and Managing the AtomSenior Researcher Matthew Bunn recentlyproposed a solution to the Iranian crisis. See their proposal at: http://bcsia.ksg.har-vard.edu/publication.cfm?program=CORE&ctype=media_feature&item_id=427&ln=releases&gma=49

*This article is representative of the breadth and depth ofBelfer Center scholarship. The views expressed herein are solelythose of the author.

Iranian President MahmoudAhmadinejad’s announcement that hiscountry has completed a uranium enrichmentcycle was met with great fanfare in the coun-try, and much worry around the world.

Iran’s government takes pride in the suc-cess in putting together a cascade, whileworld leaders worry that the steps fly in theface of UN Security Council demands thatIran stop enrichment activities—a stepprompted by their suspicion of Iran’s intentions.

Producing enough enriched uranium for the Bushehr powerplant’s reactors would require

cascades with as many as 5400 centrifuges, and Iran has

connected only 164.

Although it has garnered much attention,Iran’s moves are a relatively minor develop-ment. The enriched uranium used to fuel reac-tors has a concentration of approximately 3.5percent uranium 235, while weapons-gradefuel must be enriched to a level of more than90 percent. In addition, producing enoughenriched uranium for the Bushehr powerplant’s reactors would require cascades with asmany as 5400 centrifuges, and Iran has con-nected only 164. Furthermore, reports suggestthat the government’s joy is shared by a con-siderable segment of Iranian society. However,this should not be seen as evidence that theIranian people share its government’s viewsand should not be used as a pretext for the useof force against Iran’s population.

Let’s start with the basics. Iran is a signa-tory of the Non-Proliferation Treaty of NuclearWeapons (NPT) as well as its Additional Pro-tocol. It has adhered to all the safeguard sug-gestions emanating from the InternationalAtomic Energy Agency (IAEA), including theprovisions for short-notice inspections. Legally,it has the right to produce enriched uranium

Inside Iran: Belfer Center Senior Fellow Abbas Maleki presents“What is Iran?” at a director’s lunch in April. Managing the AtomSenior Researcher Matthew Bunn listens.

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Children in Iran lighting candles on Day of Ashurah.

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International Council Members ShareInsights, Ideas on Critical Issues

In April, the Belfer Center InternationalCouncil met to address a number of thecentral issues of international affairs and sci-ence affecting the world today. Former Secre-tary of Energy James Schlesinger, chairmanof the International Council, kicked off themeeting by leading a conversation on energyinstability and U.S. energy independence.

The age of oil is not coming to an end, but the

age in which we can enhance oil production is

coming to an end.

Robert Blackwill, U.S. envoy to Iraq in2003–04, joined former Director of

Central Intelligence John Deutch andother Council members in a rigorousdebate of U.S. involvement in Iraq. Black-will, a former ambassador to India, thentook center stage to lay out the strategicimportance of the recent U.S. agreementwith India. Debate continues at the BelferCenter among nonproliferation leaders andIndia experts regarding the role the U.S.-India relationship should play amongbroader security concerns.

Debate on India, and the then-antici-pated visit of Chinese President Hu, pro-vided a timely backdrop for thepresentation by Ben Heineman, senior fel-low and former GE senior counsel, onpossible U.S. approaches to China.

The biggest problem in theUnited States today is the

deep partisanship that keepsus from strong policy.

Martin Feldstein, former chairman ofthe Council of Economic Advisers underPresident Reagan and president of theNational Bureau of Economic Research,discussed work on economics and the U.S.dollar, reflecting the Center’s continuedfocus on economics and national security.

The influence of process on substancewas also addressed. Former Speaker of theU.S. House of Representatives, and cur-rent Chairman of the Trilateral Commis-sion Thomas Foley spoke on the problemof partisanship and policymaking, and inconjunction with a number of other Coun-cil members from both sides of the aisle,discussed the Belfer Center’s role in bridg-ing this gap.

Building Bridges: Former Speaker of the U.S.House of Representatives Thomas Foley(left) speaks to colleagues in the Belfer CenterInternational Council about Center impact onCongress. Nathaniel Rothschild, (right), co-chairman of Atticus Capital LLC, joinedmembers from around the world at the annualmeeting.

World Views: Former Secretary of Energy James Schlesinger (center), chairman of theBelfer Center’s International Council, discusses energy security at the Center’s annual meeting inApril. Also pictured: Belfer Center Director Graham Allison (left), and Belco Oil and GasCorp. Founder Robert Belfer (right).

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Economic Gurus: Paul Volcker (left), formerchairman of the Federal Reserve, with DonaldKendall (right), co-founder of PepsiCo, at theInternational Council welcoming reception.

Approaching China: Belfer Center Senior FellowBen Heineman (right), former GE senior vicepresident and general counsel, discusses U.S.-Chinarelations. Also pictured: Robert Blackwill (left), formerambassador to India.

Global Review: Belfer Center Director GrahamAllison (left) with Fred Glimp (center), former vicepresident of alumni affairs and development atHarvard, and International Council memberDavid Richards at the Council reception.

Debate continues on the role of theU.S.-India relationship among

broader security concerns.

BCSIA News • 5

NEW ORLEANSKennedy School . . . Thoughts on New Orleans

On March 25, 18Kennedy Schoolstudents traveled to NewOrleans to assist residentsof the devastated NewOrleans neighborhood ofBroadmoor in designinga strategy for neighbor-hood recovery. Broad-moor, an economicallyand racially diverse neighborhood in the heart of New Orleans, experiencedextensive flooding as a result of the failed levees in the wake of Hurricane Katrina.Five residents of this neighborhood of 7,000 were killed; 3500 have not yetreturned. Those who have returned are taking unprecedented steps to demon-strate the vitality of their neighborhood.

Working with resident committees set up by the Broadmoor ImprovementAssociation, the Kennedy School students spent a week this spring applying theirskills in organization, civic engagement, urban planning, and economic develop-ment to help the residents develop a strategic plan in response to the city’s requestfor neighborhood viability reports. The plan will serve as a model for other neigh-borhoods searching for the path forward.

The Kennedy School/Broadmoor initiative was developed by Doug Ahlers, afellow at the Belfer Center and a member of the Economic DevelopmentCommittee for the “Bring New Orleans Back” Commission. “It is clear thatthe arrival of the Kennedy School and other Harvard students helped reenergizethe residents,” Ahlers said. “For the students, this has been the opportunity to usetheir skills to help in a way that will make a very real and lasting difference tothousands of people.”

At the end of the week, LaToya Cantrell, president of the BroadmoorImprovement Association, said, “It’s been an incredible experience. Residentshave been inspired by the students’ roll-up-your-sleeves work ethic and expertise,

and the students havewitnessed firsthand thehardwork and dedica-tion we Broadmooriansare using to restore ourneighborhood andimprove it.”

On these pages,Kennedy School stu-dents share thoughtson their experiences inNew Orleans.

Walking down a city block in the heart of New Orleans, it seems like Hurricane Katrinastruck last week rather than half a year ago. Smashed and abandoned cars straddle side-walks, body counts remain spray-painted on front doors, and toxic mold grows insideboarded and condemned homes . . . As a student at the Kennedy School of Government, Ihave spent the last two years learning about the theories, ideals, and iterations of democracy.But it was not until I stepped into a Broadmoor Neighborhood Association meeting that Isaw self-government in its rawest form—citizens organizing to save their own livelihood.

—Nick Grudin, MPP ’06

I was a member of Emergency Preparedness Planning Subcom-mittee [and] met every night with community residents research-ing best practices, discussing community-specific challenges andrequirements, and drafting a plan for Broadmoor to be betterprepared to respond to future disasters. They had a clear visionfor their community and had good, solid ideas about how toimplement this vision.

—Eun Lee, Mid Career MPA ’06

BCSIA News • 6

RLEANS

Photos, © 2006 Scott Saltzman. All Rights Reserved.

houghts on New Orleans

Our group of volunteers was given a glimpse of a situation in New Orleans that is both sadand hopeful. Behind the rubble, the fallen trees, the sagging porches, and the boarded up store-fronts, there is an inspiring story of rebirth in New Orleans. Broadmoor’s community epito-mizes that story.

—Rebecca Hummel, MPP ’07

What do you say to someone who wants to rebuild against the odds, but “Great. Do it.” As for impres-sions: Chill, an African-American barber, cut hair for140 straight days despite the loss of his shop. Heset up at a gas station, in full view of passing traffic. The resilience, the commitment was inspiring.

—Brian Connors, MPP ’07

It is impossible to leave Post-Katrina New Orleans without feeling exhausted and saddened. The chal-lenge of resuscitating a major American city is daunting, and the relics of destruction remain stark. Butsomething is undoubtedly stirring beneath the rubble . . . While it is still faint, New Orleans has apulse, and it’s getting stronger.

—Nick Grudin, MPP ’06

In post-Katrina New Orleans, any tether linking people and trust with government hasbeen torn. Individual communities are nowtrying to plan for everything from economicdevelopment to education to finding peopleand getting them back into their homes. . . .What I’ll remember most was the unrelentingenergy and breadth of imagination displayedby the residents of Broadmoor . . . This . . .was real people moving beyond the rooted traditions and rules of society, daring to dreambig. For our group of students, the opportunityto leave the classroom for a place where theconcerns and livelihoods of real people are atstake will undoubtedly be one of the most sig-nificant experiences of our graduate education.

—Tim Coates, MPP ’07

Residents welcomed the sight of pilesof debris on the sidewalk because itmeant that someone had claimedthe property and was gutting. Atnight, my host family would driveme through the neighborhood look-ing for lights in windows—any signof life . . . I was struck by the com-

mitment of the residents to rebuild in the face of massive uncertainty . . . Every issue is con-nected to the next. You can’t repopulate the neighborhood if returning residents don’t havehousing, but you can’t rebuild housing without labor, and laborers have to have somewhere tosleep. You can’t revive your economy without workers and customers, but they require housingand jobs.People won’t come back unless you open the schools but schools require teachers who inturn require housing and businesses to serve their needs.

—Carolyn Wood, Assistant Academic Dean

For more informationabout Broadmoor

Improvement Association, see:

http://broadmoorimprovement.com/

BCSIA News • 7

Micro-satellites: Charting a New Course to Space Security by Will Marshall*

The United States faces a genuine securityproblem in space: satellites are easy tonegate for most of its adversaries. They are alsoabsolutely crucial to U.S. security. As formerSecretary of Defense William J. Perry stated,“Space forces are fundamental to modern mili-tary operations.”

Take Iraq as an example. The decision toinvade was based in part on intelligence fromsatellites. The planning and operations werefacilitated by satellite imagery. Many planes,ships, tanks and units’ positions were knownthrough GPS, and even most missiles wereguided by GPS. The operation was com-manded from the U.S. in large part via com-munications satellites.

The United States must focuson making its satellite systems

impenetrable to attack.

Perhaps more important than any of thefunctions during Iraq, early warning satellitesare the first warning of nuclear missile attackson the U.S.

The combination of the vulnerability andimportance of U.S. space assets means that it isone of the most important issues facing theU.S. military today. The United States mustfocus on making its satellite systems impenetra-ble to attack. Luckily there is a viable solution.

Satellites are vulnerable to attackInstead of a space architecture that consists ofa few large satellites that are complex andexpensive, the United States should move to amodel that is constellation-like, consisting ofmany inexpensive small or micro-satellites.

Currently, the U.S. space systems performfive main functions—early warning of missileattack, navigation, communications, signalsintelligence, and reconnaissance—each of

which is made of a small constellation ofsatellites. Most have single point failures,meaning that if just one or two satelliteswere to fail, the system would be signifi-cantly compromised.

The U.S. should use micro-satellitesA Multitiered Micro-satellite Constella-tion Architecture (MMCA) could performthe same functions as the few large satel-lites do today, but would be less vulnera-ble to attack. By using the following, asystem would be created with no room forsingle point failures to any known methodof attack: several orbital altitudes wherephysical attack is difficult; constellationsof satellites that are well dispersed; signifi-cant levels of redundancy; and modularsatellites that work together.

Such a system is possible both techni-cally and affordably because of the generaltrend of miniaturization of technologyand the increasing capabilities of micro-satellites.

In fact, use of micro-satellites for mili-tary purposes is exactly what France, the U.K.and China are beginning to do already. TheUnited States needs to join this trend. Despitethe challenges, it is worth the time and cost togain guaranteed security improvements.

The United States should also employ sev-eral other complementary measures includingbetter protection systems on individual satel-lites, back up ground stations, responsive spaceaccess, a system of terrestrial alternatives, capa-bility to negate anti-satellite systems and betterspace surveillance. Finally, the U.S. shouldpursue treaties and verification means that cre-ate an incentive for others not to conductaggressive acts in space.

Is there a role for space-based weapons?Despite government support, no space-basedweapon yet proposed has had any significantcapability to protect space assets. Even worse,analysis has shown that such systems will mostlikely reduce security.

If the United States deploys space-basedweapons, it will be easy for others to workagainst them. Anti-satellite (ASAT) technolo-gies that are available include bombing satelliteground stations, heating a satellite to the pointof malfunction from the ground, and attackinglow-orbit satellites using ballistic missiles.These options would be considerably more dif-ficult by using satellites that are invulnerable toattack.

The Next GenerationIn the future, the United States should chart anew course. As the existing system dies out, itshould be replaced with less vulnerable archi-tecture. This will require development of

micro-satellite technologies and overcomingthe inertia and bureaucratic challenges tochanging the existing large satellite model.Also, the government should stop all fundingfor space-based weapons programs that arejeopardizing security interests.

No space-based weapon yet proposed has had any

significant capability to protectspace assets.

The U.S. government should establish clearcriteria of assessment for space-based weapons,principally based on (1) being a net securitybenefit and (2) being cost effective (comparedto countermeasures of adversaries and alterna-tives that provide the same capability). Untilall such criteria are met, the United Statesshould stop funding development effortsunderway in the Missile Defense Agency andAir Force Space Command.

The U.S. National Space Policy currentlyunder draft is an ideal opportunity to helpchart such a course. Any indication of a greenlight for space-based weapons would only serveto counter security interests—worsening itsAchilles’ heal in space.

Will Marshall is a fellow with the Interna-tional Security Program.

*This article is representative of the breadth and depth ofBelfer Center scholarship. The views expressed herein are solelythose of the author.

Safe Space: Belfer Center International SecurityProgram Fellow Will Marshall describes how theU.S. can achieve its national security interests in space atan International Security Program seminar.

Image of space weapons

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QWhat brought you to the Belfer Center?I owe my interest in arms control and nonpro-liferation issues to John Steinbruner and SteveFetter, at the University of Maryland Schoolof Public Policy, where I was a graduate stu-dent and, later, research fellow. The insight andstories they shared really excited me about thechallenge of controlling nuclear weapons.

The chance for a similar experience led meto the Belfer Center. I am very fortunate towork with leaders like Graham Allison, AshCarter, John Holdren, Henry Lee, SteveMiller, Matt Bunn, and Anthony Wier. Thelist goes on and on. And, every year, we bringin some of the best and brightest thinkers fromaround the world for fellowships. It is a vibrantenvironment, with more great talks and meet-ings than hours in a day.

Managing the Atom is an incredible oppor-tunity to work with both scholars and practi-tioners to generate creative solutions to thechallenges posed by the spread of nuclear tech-nology. It’s a long way from Rock Island, Illi-nois, where I went to college and my adoptedhome in Washington, D.C.—but I hope tocontribute a little Midwest pragmatism andBeltway perspective here at the KennedySchool.

QWhat are your goals for Managing the Atom?MTA is already tremendously successful. Thework that the Kennedy School has done onsecuring nuclear materials in an age of terror-ism—the annual Securing the Bomb reportproduced by Matthew Bunn and AnthonyWier with support from the Nuclear ThreatInitiative, and Nuclear Terrorism: The UltimatePreventable Catastrophe by Graham Allison—shows the impact we can have.

To build on these fundamentals, I want toengage scholars and policy makers in Iran andNorth Korea in an unofficial capacity, maybeto suggest solutions that are more difficult todiscuss in official circles.

I also want to help MTA fellows have theresources they need to make the maximumimpact. We have such a great group—ChenZak, John Park and Anne Wu—all have

Jeffrey Lewis recently joined the Belfer Center as the executive director of the Managing the Atom Pro-ject. MTA is a cooperative effort by two programs at the Center aimed at bringing together scholars andpractitioners to conduct policy-relevant research on key strategic issues affecting the future of nuclearweapons and nuclear energy technology.

interesting contributions to make to the non-proliferation debate. To ensure their time hereis best used, we need to do more than simplydraw on their knowledge. We have an oppor-tunity to change how our field looks at certaincrucial problems. The collegial and casual envi-ronment fosters innovation.

QCan MTA really make a difference?Absolutely. We are witnessing a fundamentalshift in how the world approaches nuclearpower and nonproliferation. The process ofglobalization is perhaps best characterized bythe rapid diffusion of technology. The spreadof technology can be an incredibly powerfulforce for economic development. At the sametime, states and non-state actors such as terror-ists have access to technologies and materials—nuclear, chemical, biological andradiological—that are unprecedented. Whetherthe spread of technology leads to greater pros-perity or unparalleled harm, national securityis the central challenge of the millennium.

Every year, we bring in some of the best and brightest

thinkers from around the worldfor fellowships. It is a very

vibrant environment.

Human beings have never been more inneed of innovative ways to better govern our-selves amid the spread of technologies likenuclear power.

These solutions will have to be interna-tional in character, technically sophisticated,and, above all, practical. I can’t think of a bet-ter group than MTA to bring U.S. and inter-national scholars—scientists, practitioners,politicians of diverse ages, experience levels,and technical expertise—all to the same table.

QGiven the urgency, if you could makethree changes to nuclear securitytoday, what would they be?

I would create universal adherence across all theelements of the nonproliferation regime, insiston tougher verification arrangements (especiallyrelated to onsite inspections), as well as a treatypermanently banning the production of fissilematerial production. In the end, all arms con-trollers and nonproliferation specialists hope toput themselves out of business.

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Human beings have never beenmore in need of innovative waysto better govern ourselves amid

the spread of technologies like nuclear power.

QDo you have plans to continue yourown research?My forthcoming book, Minimum Means ofReprisal: China’s Search for Security in theNuclear Age (MIT Press, 2006) allowed me todo some very exciting research, which I hopeto continue this summer. I traveled to Xining,which was basically China’s Los Alamos untilthe 1980s. I discovered far more transparencyabout Chinese nuclear programs than youmight expect. The historical documents andconversations I had were far beyond my expec-tations. It wasn’t that the Chinese were totallyopen, but the approach to security was just dif-ferent. The things one can talk about in aninformal setting are really amazing if you putin the time and effort.

This casual environment for discussion—the idea of people from different countries witha common interest in finding solutions to someof these tough problems—is something that Iwould like to further advance at the BelferCenter. We’ve already had some promisingTrack II conversations, but there is much moreto do.

For more on Managing the Atom, see:www.managingtheatom.org.

Q&AJeffrey Lewis

China’s ‘Los Alamos’:Jeffrey Lewis atXining, QinghaiProvince, whereChinese scientiststested conventionalexplosives forChina’s first nuclearweapon.

Seoul Intentions: Ambassadorof the Republic of Korea tothe United States Lee Tae-sikspeaks to Belfer Center facultyand fellows on “The CurrentState of U.S.-Korean Relations”in April.

Advances in Africa: Ambassador Jendayi Frazer (right), assistantsecretary for African Affairs, leads a Belfer Center discussion in Aprilon challenges and changes in Africa. Frazer, former associate professorof public policy at the Belfer Center, previously was U.S.ambassador to South Africa. Calestous Juma (left), director ofthe Belfer Center’s Science,Technology and GlobalizationProject, joined in the discussion with faculty and fellows.

Power Surge: Robert Blackwill(center), former U.S. ambassador toIndia and member of the Belfer CenterBoard of Directors, presents at aKennedy School Forum in Februaryalong with Belfer Center ExecutiveDirector for Research XeniaDormandy (right) on “The Rise of Indiaas a Great Power and U.S.-IndiaRelations.” Blackwill played a central rolein the transformation of the U.S.-Indianrelationship while Dormandy served asformer director for South Asia on theNational Security Council. KennedySchool Dean David Elwood (left)moderated the discussion.

Election Review: Former Deputy NationalSecurity Adviser to Israel Chuck Freilich,a senior fellow at the Belfer Center, discussesIsrael’s recent elections in “Following theElections in Israel: A New U.S. Israeli StrategicAgenda” in April. Executive Director forResearch Xenia Dormandy (left) is alsopictured.

Economics Abroad: Faryar Shirzad, deputy nationalsecurity advisor for International Economic Affairs,speaks at a directors’ lunch in March on “BushAdministration’s International Economic Agenda.” Agraduate of the Kennedy School, Shirzad has maintained hisrelationship with the Belfer Center.

Trade Secrets: Deputy Secretary ofState Robert Zoellick speaks at adirectors’ lunch in March aboutinternational challenges. Zoellick was U.S.Trade Representative from 2001–2005,during which time he completednegotiations to bring China and Taiwan intothe World Trade Organization, enacted manyFree Trade Agreements, and worked withCongress to pass the Trade Act of 2002.

BELFER SPEAKERSProviding Leadership . . . Advancing PolicyB

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SPEAKERSOil Futures: RachelBronson, senior fellowand director of MiddleEast Studies at the Councilon Foreign Relations,“TheU.S.-Saudi Relationship:Future Challenges” at adirector’s lunch in May.Bronson, a former fellow atHarvard’s Center for Scienceand International Affairs, isauthor of the forthcomingbook Thicker Than Oil:America’s Uneasy Partnershipwith Saudi Arabia.

Iraqi Insight: Mahdi Obeidi, former director general of Iraq’sMinistry of Military Industrialization under Saddam Hussein,discusses his book The Bomb In My Garden:The Secrets of Saddam’sNuclear Mastermind during a lunch meeting in April. His bookrefers to his garden in Baghdad where he buried plans and partsfor a centrifuge program after U.N. arms inspectors forced Iraq toclose its nuclear weapons program in 1991.

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Crimson Kudos: Dallas Brown, director of the Joint InteragencyCoordination Group, U.S. Central Command, discusses “InteragencyChallenges in Prosecuting the Global War on Terrorism.” A Kennedy Schoolgraduate with a distinguished Army career, Brown credited preparation received atHarvard with helping him successfully navigate military and government processes.Charles Warren Professor of American History Ernest May and KennedySchool Dean Emeritus Joseph Nye took part in the discussion.

BCSIA News • 10

Quality of Life: University of CambridgeProfessor Partha Dasgupta speaks on“Human Well-Being and the NaturalEnvironment” in the Weiner Auditorium inApril. An internationally respected scholarin ecological economics, Dasgupta wasrecently knighted by Britain’s QueenElizabeth for “services to economics.” Hisvisit was sponsored by Harvard UniversityCenter for the Environment.

Straight Talk: Kurt Campbell (right), vicepresident of the Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, speaks on “Asia’sStrategic Urgencies” with Belfer Center facultyand fellows in February. Science,Technology,and Public Policy Director John Holdren(left) joined the discussion.

Command Performance: General James E. Cartwright (right),commander of United States Strategic Command, speaks inMarch on “Strategic Command Vision and Issues” with fellows andfaculty including Preventive Defense Project Co-director AshtonCarter (left).

Power or Paralysis? KoriSchake, distinguishedprofessor of InternationalSecurity Studies at theUnited States MilitaryAcademy at West Point,and former director fordefense on the NationalSecurity Council, discussessustainability of Americanpower in March. Schake is alsoa fellow at the HooverInstitution at StanfordUniversity.

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BCSIA News • 11

Students in the “Strategies of Tyrants” classat Harvard College say that their instruc-tor is the furthest thing from being a tyrant.Jacqueline (Jackie) Newmyer’s class, co-taught with Professor Stephen P. Rosen, is oneof the most popular in the department, andher research is central not only to the educa-tion of the next generation of policy leaders,but to the current generation as well.

In addition to teaching, Newmyer is apostdoctoral research fellow in the Interna-tional Security Program at the Belfer Center.Her dissertation—a comparison of seminalworks on strategy and statecraft from ancientChina, the medieval Middle East, and earlymodern Europe—reflects the dynamism shebrings to emerging scholarship at the Center.Her recent testimony before the United StatesChina Commission, in which she argued thatthe U.S. should better understand the role ofintelligence in Chinese strategy, demonstratesthat such scholarship is shaping the policies oftoday and tomorrow.

Newmyer grew up in Washington, D.C.,and became interested in the motivations ofinternational actors and their behavior aroundwar and peace when she was a student at Sid-well Friends School, a Quaker institution. Herpassion for learning carried her to Harvardwhere she studied history and literature.

“At Harvard, military history and politicalphilosophy captivated me. And it was rightafter graduation that I realized that I shouldtry to combine these interests in a way thatwould be useful to decisionmakers.”

I don’t think enough U.S.policymakers have made a goodfaith effort to see the world the

way Beijing sees it.

China was of special interest to Newmyer.“I don’t think enough U.S. policymakers havemade a good faith effort to see the world theway Beijing sees it, yet history teaches us thatonly by understanding the philosophy and cul-ture of others can we appreciate the policiesthey develop. Harvard is an ideal place toacquire the tools to empathize with a foreigncivilization.”

After earning her B.A. from Harvard Col-lege summa cum laude, Newmyer crossed theAtlantic for graduate school. At Oxford, shestudied under the world-renowned militaryhistorian Hew Strachan and spent her sum-mers in Washington, consulting for the Officeof Net Assessment in the Office of the Secre-tary of Defense. Before coming back to Cam-

bridge to take up a post at the Olin Institutefor Strategic Studies in September 2004,Newmyer lived in Washington, D.C., whereshe worked with the defense contractor SAICand wrote her dissertation. Since moving backto Cambridge, in addition to being a fellowand lecturer at Harvard, she has worked ashead of the China Research Program with theLong-Term Strategy Project, a non-profitthink tank affiliated with the Center forStrategic and Budgetary Assessments in Washington.

In these capacities, Newmyer has contin-ued research she began for her dissertation andhas worked to help policymakers better under-stand China.

The Belfer Center doesn’t force you into a label of “policyadvocate” or “academic,” but

embraces the concept that theone needs the other.

“China is coming into its own and engag-ing with the world in a way we have not seenin our lifetime. We need to remind ourselvesof all the questions we can’t answer aboutChina and, at the same time, not overstatethe ability of U.S. leaders to influenceChina’s trajectory.”

Newmyer will continue her China researchby further developing work she started in Bei-jing last August. She’ll return to China thissummer in an effort to understand Chinesemanagement style and the influence on theeconomy of the combination of traditionalConfucian and Communist practices on theone hand and modern western and “Asian-Tiger” techniques on the other.

“In both business and politics, the Chineseplace a large value on possessing superiorinformation. The PRC (Peoples Republic ofChina) has to know, better than its allies andenemies, what the dominant trends are. Howdoes the prevalence of spying affect corporateculture? How does it affect national securitydecision-making? The answers to these ques-tions should inform our policy toward China,whether, as predicted, China’s rise continuesfull speed ahead, or whether the PRC encoun-ters some unexpected turbulence on the roadto great-power status.”

Outstanding defense thinkers from acade-mia, like Steve Rosen and Hew Strachan, andfrom inside the Beltway, like Andy Marshalland Andrew Krepinevich, have served as rolemodels to Newmyer in her still-young career.They have recognized the value of her innova-

tive thinking and provided her numerousopportunities to put this groundbreakingresearch in front of policymakers.

The Chinese place a large value on possessing superior

information.

“The Belfer Center is a great place to pur-sue my research on China,” Newmyer says.“Because the Center serves as the hub of activ-ity at the Kennedy School for actionable policyresearch, people like me who study interna-tional relations can talk to the people makingdecisions. The Belfer Center doesn’t force youinto a label of ‘policy advocate’ or ‘academic,’but embraces the concept that the one needsthe other.”

Jacqueline (Jackie) Newmyer is a fellow in the Belfer Center’s International Security Program. Her research focus is Chinese security policy and American grand strategy.

SPOTLIGHTJacqueline Newmyer

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Yale Professor John Lewis Gaddis, a lead-ing historian on grand strategy, stressed theimportance of winning hearts and minds.Rand Beers of the Valley Forge Initiative andpreviously the National Security Councilemphasized that the decision to invade Iraqhas been the biggest setback to winning thebattle of ideas in the Muslim world. RichardClarke similarly criticized the administrationfor exacerbating the war on terrorism byengaging in a supremely unpopular war in theheart of the Muslim world.

Forthcoming speakers include RadcliffeInstitute Executive Dean Louise Richardsonand John Taylor, former undersecretary forInternational Affairs at the U.S. Departmentof Treasury.

These conversations aim to provide aclearer understanding of the threat of terrorismand to identify optimal ways to counter thethreat.

Countering Terrorism(continued from page 2)

12 • BCSIA News

Belfer Center Fellow DougAhlers organized and joined25 Kennedy School studentsand staff in New Orleans inMarch to assist residents ofthe Broadmoor neighbor-

hood in developing a redevelopment planfor recovery. Ahlers, a New Orleans resi-dent, has funded an internship and is coor-dinating several Shell Oil internships thatwill enable development specialists to workwith Broadmoor during the summer torefine and implement the plan.

International Security Pro-gram Fellow James Biedahas been assigned to UnitedStates Forces Korea (USFK)as director of Commandand Control Systems and

chief of the Joint Command InformationSystems Activity (JCISA). Colonel Bieda,whose Belfer Center research focuses onintelligence gathering and terrorism pre-vention, will oversee command and controlsystems used throughout the Korean the-ater to provide timely information andoperational awareness.

International Security Pro-gram/Intrastate ConflictProgram Fellow MichaelBoyle has been appointedlecturer in InternationalRelations at the internation-

ally renowned University of St. Andrews inScotland for the forthcoming academicyear. Boyle’s research at the Belfer Centerhas been on political violence, post-conflictstates, and peacekeeping, with a focus onKosovo and East Timor.

International Security Program Director StevenMiller and Belfer CenterSenior Fellow and formerSenior Vice President forGE Ben Heineman havebeen named to the 2006Class of Fellows of theAmerican Academy of Artsand Sciences. Academy Pres-ident Patricia Meyer Spacksannounced the new fellows

and said, “It gives me great pleasure to wel-come these outstanding leaders in theirfields to the Academy.” Fellows are selectedthrough a highly competitive process thatrecognizes individuals who have made pre-eminent contributions to their disciplinesand to society. The Academy, founded in1780 by John Adams, James Bowdoin,John Hancock, and other scholar-patriots,will induct this year’s new class at its annualinduction ceremony on October 7.

Raymond Plank Professor ofGlobal Energy Policy andBelfer Center faculty affiliateWilliam Hogan of theKennedy School’s Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business

and Government, has been named winner ofthe prestigious International Association forEnergy Economics (IAEE) award for “out-standing contributions to the field of energyeconomics and its literature.”

Science, Technology andGlobalization DirectorCalestous Juma was instrumen-tal in the establishment in Feb-ruary of the PJ PattersonInstitute of Science, Technology

and Innovation in Jamaica. This internationalventure, named for the country’s prime minis-ter, is the first institutional response to the rec-ommendation of the United Nations’Millennium Project’s Task Force on Science,Technology and Innovation. Juma co-chairedthe task force.

“THE “RED ZONE” PROBLEM: Thenuclear programs of Iran and North Koreahave exposed an ominous flaw in the interna-tional nonproliferation regime, one predictedmore than a generation ago by AlbertWohlstetter. According to the prevailing inter-pretation of the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty(NPT), non-nuclear weapon states can acquirethe key building blocks of a nuclear weaponsprogram—uranium enrichment and spent fuelreprocessing facilities—if their intended use isfor peaceful nuclear power development.”

—Ashton Carter and Stephen LaMontagne,The American Interest (Spring 2006)

“PRESIDENT BUSH AND CONGRESSSHOULD REINSTITUTE SELECTIVESERVICE under a lottery without any defer-ments. This single action will send a strongmessage to three constituencies in the crisisover Iran’s nuclear intentions—Iran, outsidepowers like China and Russia and Americansat home—and perhaps lead to a peaceful resolution.”

—Paul Kane, “A Peaceful Call to Arms,” NewYork Times (20 April 2006)

“AL QAIDA AND THE JIHADIST NET-WORK it helped to spawn have repeatedlyattempted to purchase stolen nuclear materialand to recruit nuclear expertise; indeed,Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri metat length with two senior Pakistani nuclear sci-entists to discuss nuclear weapons. Govern-ment studies have repeatedly concluded that atechnically capable terrorist group could plau-sibly make at least a crude nuclear bomb if itprocures HEU or separated plutonium.”

—Matthew Bunn, “Cooperation to SecureNuclear Stockpiles,” Innovations (Winter2006)

“THE CIVILIAN NUCLEAR COOPERA-TION DEAL IS CONTROVERSIAL. Whileit must still get through our Congress andthrough the 45-country Nuclear SuppliersGroup (NSG), it will open the way to helpIndia grow and to help us all to avoid negativeeffects on global energy prices and the environ-ment. But this is merely one sign-post in India’s

path toward becoming a global leader. Whetherit is economics, energy, nonproliferation,democracy or security, India has a vital role toplay and the capacity and will to play it.”

—Xenia Dormandy and Michael Green,“Bush in India: It’s More Than Just Nuclear,”San Diego Union-Tribune (5 March 2006)

“FOREIGN POLICY IS ALWAYS ATRADE-OFF among competing objectives.While it is important to express values in for-eign policy, the danger of letting the rhetoricbecome excessive is that it exposes us to corro-sive charges of hypocrisy that undercut our softor attractive power.”

—Joseph Nye (quoted in article) “Bush: NoNuclear Pact for Pakistan” Los Angeles Times (5March 2006)

“ACROSS THE NUCLEAR FRONT, theadministration currently confronts challengesas difficult as those faced by any Americangovernment since the Cuban Missile Crisis.We can be grateful for the recognition of Sec-retary of State Condoleezza Rice and her col-leagues of the reality of nuclear danger andtheir determination to mobilize all the sticksand carrots in the American arsenal to combatthe threat.”

—Graham Allison, “A Nuclear TerrorismReport Card,” The National Interest (Spring2006)

“THE OPTIMISTIC MOOD IN INDIA’SBUSINESS COMMUNITY, the desire forreforms by the top leadership of the govern-ment, and the growing number of relativelymiddle-class households provide a force forchange and a source of support for new entre-preneurial activities. If the political leaders cannow persuade the traditional opponents ofreform that growth can benefit their con-stituents and that better new jobs will replacethe old, India will see decades of remarkableachievement.”

—Martin Feldstein, “There’s More to GrowthThan China,” Wall Street Journal (16 February2006)

NEWSMAKERSInternational Security • Environment and Natural Resources • Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict

BCSIA News • 13

Associate Professor ViktorMayer-Schoenberger and Sci-ence, Technology, and PublicPolicy Director EmeritusLewis Branscomb chaired aone-day session, “Protecting

Our Future,” at the National Press Club inWashington D.C. The March conferencebrought together policy-makers, academics,and the business community to discuss steps toprotect the nation’s critical information infra-structure.

International Security Pro-gram Fellow Assaf Moghadamhas accepted a fellowship at theOlin Institute for StrategicStudies at Harvard for the nextacademic year. At the Belfer

Center, Moghadam’s research has focused onterrorism, suicide attacks, and global jihad, andhe has made numerous presentations on sui-cide attacks. As an Olin fellow, he will com-plete and publish his dissertation on theglobalization of martyrdom.

John Park, project leader ofManaging the Atom’sNorth Korea AnalysisGroup, has accepted a posi-tion with Goldman Sachs inNew York. Beginning in

August, he will work on financing initiativesfor government infrastructure projects. As aNortheast Asia researcher, Park is especiallyinterested in the evolving interconnectionbetween economic development activitythat is taking place along the Sino-NorthKorean border and nuclear security issues inthe region.

Senior Fellow RichardRosecrance served as the dis-tinguished visiting professorof international relations atthe Australian National Uni-versity in Canberra in Febru-

ary and March. He took part in a numberof discussions involving Australia, the U.S.,and China, and the possibility that Australiamight increasingly side with China on someissues such as the dispute over Taiwan.

International Security Pro-gram Fellow Laura Sjoberg,who holds a joint fellowshipwith the Kennedy School’sWomen and Public PolicyProgram, will be a visiting

assistant professor of political science atDuke University next year. At the BelferCenter, Sjoberg has focused her research onjust war theory, gender aspects of interna-tional security, and Iraq.

Kennedy School AcademicDean Stephen Walt hasbeen named to the shortlistof nominees for the Councilon Foreign Relation’s 2006Arthur Ross Book Award for

Taming American Power: The GlobalResponse to U.S. Primacy (W.W. Norton,2005).The prestigious award for the bestbook on international affairs was endowedby Arthur Ross in 2001 to honor non-fic-tion works that provide new ideas to helpresolve foreign policy problems.

Moira Whelan, director ofcommunications and out-reach for the Belfer Center,has accepted a position ascommunications director forthe Valley Forge Initiative

(VFI) and Foreign Policy Leadership Coun-cil (FPLC). The sister organizations willserve as the hub for progressive idea devel-opment and messaging on national securityby combining a network of national securityexperts with community leaders nationwide.

“THE KAESONG INDUSTRIAL COM-PLEX is the current embodiment of Seoul’ssunshine policy towards the North. WhileKaesong, strategically located north of theDemilitarized Zone separating the two Koreas,is symbolically important, the massive scalethat is envisaged in the coming years isunlikely to be realized in North Korea.”

—John Park, “Path for Seoul’s Sunshine Pol-icy,” Korea Times (5 April 2006)

“AN INSPIRATIONAL SCHOOL OFENTREPRENEURSHIP AND DEVELOP-MENT will focus on training the next genera-tion of African leaders on how to run amodern state that places business at the core ofits development policy . . . Africa is a grave-yard of white elephants; small-scale projectsthat stayed small. We need to create scale, andwe can only do that by enlisting the support ofthe mining industry to make a very real differ-ence to the African continent.”

—Calestous Juma (quoted in article),“African Lessons,” Mining Magazine (February2006)

“THIS IS THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY forthe government to make a Sept. 11 case. Thisis it. There isn’t another. The government hasto cross every t and dot every i to ensure thatthe Sept. 11 families finally have their day incourt. If it gets messed up over a technicality . . . there is no excuse.”

—Juliette Kayyem (quoted in article), “JudgeHalts Terror Trial,” Washington Post (14 March2006)

“THE DETERIORATING SECURITY SIT-UATION IN AFGHANISTAN reveals thehigh price of the slow pace of reconstructionthere: Winning Afghan hearts and minds isn’tas quick or easy as growing poppies . . . Laterthis month, when British troops take overcounterinsurgency operations in the south ofAfghanistan, they will face a dangerous mix-ture of growing insurgency, a populationincreasingly frustrated by a lack of economicprogress, and another bumper crop of opium.”

—Vanda Felbab-Brown, “Hasty Poppy Eradication in Afghanistan Can Sow More

Problems,” Christian Science Monitor (23March 2006)

“WITH THE DRAFT GONE, we will neverhave the participation rates in the military thatwe had in the past. But the decisions, implicitand explicit, of those in the upper classes toprotect their sons and daughters from even thechoice of military service is inexcusable.”

—Elaine Kamarck, “ ‘Fortunate Sons’ ShouldHave to Serve” Newsday (13 March 2006)

“FOR A LONG TIME, says Henry Lee,director of the Environment and NaturalResources Program at Harvard’s KennedySchool of Government and an agnostic onpeak oil, ‘we worried that we were running outof iron, then it was steel, then aluminum . . .I’d be hard-pressed to give you a metal that weworry about in this respect today.”

—Henry Lee (quoted in article), “OilFutures,” Boston Globe (26 February 2006)

“WHEN YOU SEE 93% OF AMERICANSAGREEING THAT GLOBAL WARMINGIS A PROBLEM, you realize that the well-funded skeptic community has not been aseffective as they would like,” says John Hol-dren, a public policy professor at Harvard Uni-versity and director of the Woods HoleResearch Center.

—John Holdren (quoted in article), “ClimateChange and American Exceptionalism,” Envi-ronmental Science and Technology PolicyNews (22 February 2006)

“MOST BIOLOGICAL THREATS ARELIKELY TO BE UNANNOUNCED andunfamiliar (like the outbreak of SARS in 2002and 2003), so rapid drug development is criti-cal. With few exceptions, the United Stateslacks the ability to develop, manufacture andadminister vaccines in response to specificthreats as they arise. That ability is withinreach, but only if we invest wisely.”—Kendall Hoyt, “Bird Flu Won’t Wait,” NewYork Times (3 March 2006)

See Belfer Center Publications at www.belfercenter.org.

MAKERS• Science, Technology, and Public Policy • Intrastate Conflict

14 • BCSIA News

HOT OFF THE PRESSESChina Shifts Gears: Automakers, Oil,Pollution, and DevelopmentBy Kelly Sims GallagherThe MIT Press

Chinese production ofautomobiles rose from42,000 cars per year in1990 to 2.3 million in2004; the number of pas-senger vehicles on theroad doubled every twoand a half years throughthe 1990s and continuesto grow. In China ShiftsGears, Kelly Sims Gallagher

identifies an unprecedented opportunity forChina to “shift gears” and avoid the usual prob-lems associated with the automobile industry—including urban air pollution caused by tailpipeemissions, greenhouse gas emissions, and highdependence on oil imports—while spurring eco-nomic development.

Can foreign investment be an effective vehicle for transer of

clean technology?

“. . . Gallagher addresses theextremely important question ofwhether foreign direct investment canbe an effective vehicle for the transferof clean technology, in particular inthe automotive sector.The questionhas enormous implications not onlyfor China (air pollution, cancer rates)but for the world (oil prices, climatechange).The importance of this bookis therefore very great.”—Judith Shapiro, School of International Service,

American University, author of Mao’s War Against Nature: Politics and the

Environment in Revolutionary China

Gender, Justice, and the Wars in Iraq:A Feminist Reformulation of Just War TheoryBy Laura SjobergRowman and Littlefield Publishers, forthcomingJuly 2006

Gender, Justice, and theWars in Iraq offers a femi-nist critique and recon-struction of just wartheory. It points out gen-der biases in the just wartradition and suggestsalternative jus ad bellumand jus in bello standardsthat emphasize women,political marginality, and

empathy. Laura Sjoberg applies this feminist justwar theory to analyze the wars in Iraq since theend of the Cold War—the First Gulf War, thewar of sanctions, and the Second Gulf War. . . .Sjoberg suggests that dialogue and empathyreplace righteousness in just war thinking for thegood of human safety everywhere and concludeswith alternative visions of Gulf War policies,inspired by feminist just war theory.

“A new and distinctive feminist voiceon war! Sjoberg grabs hold of thetrickiest issues of justice and war mak-ing, as well as war avoiding, and shakeseverything up. . . .This rigorous andreflective study will be a benchmarkwork for years to come.”

—Christine Sylvester, Lancaster University

Uncertainty Underground:Yucca Mountainand the Nation’s High-Level Nuclear WasteEdited by Allison M. Macfarlane and Rodney C. KingThe MIT Press

Uncertainty Underground isthe first effort to reviewthe uncertainties in theanalysis of the long-termperformance of the pro-posed repository at YuccaMountain.The book doesnot pass judgment on thesuitability of the site but

provides reliable science-based information tosupport open debate and inquiry into its safety.

Uncertainty Underground is the firsteffort to review uncertainties in performance at Yucca Mountain.

“The energy honeymoon is rapidlyending as hydrogen-rich fossil fuels are depleted and combustion-driven global climate impacts acceler-ate.The path to major successorsources offers few attractive options,which is why nuclear waste issues

must be resolved. Uncertainty Under-ground offers comprehensive, authori-tative, and understandable essays onthis critical issue. . . .”

—John H. Gibbons, Assistant to the President for Science and Technology

(1993–1998)

The Unfinished Peace after World War I:America, Britain and the Stabilisation ofEurope, 1919–1932 By Patrick O. CohrsCambridge University Press

This is a highly originaland revisionist analysis ofBritish and Americanefforts to forge a stableEuro-Atlantic peace orderbetween 1919 and therise of Hitler. PatrickCohrs argues that thisorder was not founded atVersailles but ratherthrough the first “real”

peace settlements after World War I—the Lon-don reparations settlement of 1924 and theLocarno security pact of 1925. Crucially, bothfostered Germany’s integration into a fledglingtransatlantic peace system, thus laying the onlyrealistic foundations for European stability.Whatproved decisive was that key decision-makersdrew lessons from the “Great War” and Ver-sailles’ shortcomings.Yet Cohrs also re-appraiseswhy they could not sustain the new order, mas-ter its gravest crisis—the Great Depression—and prevent Nazism’s onslaught.

“. . . . Based on massive archival schol-arship and elegantly written, his studyfocuses on American and British rolesand asks why a stable European secu-rity system could not be consolidatedbetween the Versailles Treaty and theadvent of Hitler. . . . ”—Charles S. Maier, Leverett Saltonstall Professor

of History, Harvard University

Publication UpdateNuclear Terrorism:The Ultimate Preventable Catastrophe, by Belfer CenterDirector Graham Allison, is now available in the United Kingdom and inJapan.The United Kingdom edition is published by Constable & Robinson, theJapanese edition by Nikkei.

In his afterword to the Japanese edition of Nuclear Terrorism, Allisonwrites,“As the Japanese have immortalized poignantly in stone at the PeaceMemorial Museum of Hiroshima, ‘To remember Hiroshima is to abhornuclear war.’” In April, Allison traveled to Japan where he took part in theTrilateral Commission meetings and discussed his book.

BCSIA News • 15

“We ought to be able, in coopera-tion with NATO, to end thefighting in Darfur,” said Intrastate ConflictProgram Director Robert Rotberg.

In March, Rotberg hosted “Sudan at theCrossroads: Transforming Generations of CivilWar into Peace and Development,” a two-dayconference to determine the best steps for con-fronting the challenges ahead for Sudan andDarfur. He convened a number of Sudaneseleaders and experts in the fields of diplomacy,human rights advocacy, foreign aid, interna-tional business, and conflict prevention. Theirtask was to produce a “report card” on theissues in Sudan and come up with a workableplan for peace.

We ought to be able to end the fighting in Darfur.

Among those in attendance were SudanMinister of Foreign Affairs Lam Akol,former Governor of Darfur Ahmed Diraige,Ambassador Cameron Hume of the U.S.Embassy in Sudan, Ambassador OmarManis of the Sudan Mission to the UN,

SPRING 2006Vol. 30, No. 4

The End of MAD? The Nuclear Dimension of U.S. PrimacySince the end of the Cold War, the nuclearbalance has shifted dramatically, write Keir A.Lieber, of the University of Notre Dame, andDaryl G. Press, of the University of Pennsyl-vania.The U.S. nuclear arsenal has steadilyimproved; the Russian force has sharplyeroded; and Chinese nuclear modernizationhas progressed at a glacial pace.Today, theUnited States stands on the verge of attainingnuclear primacy, meaning that it could con-ceivably disarm the nuclear arsenals of Russiaand China. Lieber and Press discuss implica-tions of the rise of U.S. nuclear primacy forrelations among the world’s great powers, forU.S. foreign policy, and for international rela-tions scholarship.

Symbolic Politics or Rational Choice?Testing Theories of Extreme Ethnic ViolenceUsing the cases of Sudan’s civil war andRwanda’s genocide, Stuart J. Kaufman, ofthe University of Delaware, argues that ratio-nal choice theories, which claim that extremeethnic violence can be explained either as theresult of information failures and commitmentproblems or as the utility-maximizing strategyof predatory elites, are incorrect: neither casecan be understood as resulting from informa-tion failures, commitment problems, or ratio-

nal power-conserving elite strategies. A betterexplanation is found in symbolic politics theory,which asserts that extreme violence is driven byhostile ethnic myths and an emotionally drivensymbolic politics based on those myths that pop-ularize predatory policies.

Building a Republican Peace: StabilizingStates after WarIn the view of Michael Barnett, of the Univer-sity of Minnesota, although peacebuilders do notoperate from a common template, liberal valuesso define their activities that their efforts can becalled “liberal peacebuilding.” Growing evidencesuggests, however, that liberal peacebuilding is re-creating the conditions of conflict; states emerg-ing from war do not have the means to absorbthe pressures associated with political and mar-ket competition. One alternative is “republicanpeacebuilding.” Drawing from republican politicaltheory, Downes argues that the republican prin-ciples can help states after war address thethreats to stability deriving from arbitrary powerand factional conflict and, in the process, developsome legitimacy.

The Evolution of U.S.-Indian Ties:Missile Defense in an Emerging Strategic RelationshipThe shift in Indian positions on missile defense inthe light of the growing transformation of U.S.-Indian relations since the end of the Cold War,and the advent of the Bush administration, has

been remarkable. According to Ashley J.Tel-lis, of the Carnegie Endowment for Interna-tional Peace, several factors—including thegrowing recognition in Washington and NewDelhi of the threat of weapons of massdestruction and the desire to forge a newpartnership grounded in deomocratic val-ues—have combined to produce a dramaticnew acceptance of strategic defenses.What isfascinating about this evolution is the mannerin which missile defenses have come to reflecta means toward, the steady improvement inU.S.-Indian ties occurring in recent years.This,in turn, implies that a deepening bilateral rela-tionship has become part of New Delhi’slarger solution to increasing India’s capacity todefeat threats.

Desperate Times, Desperate Measures:The Causes of Civilian Victimization inWarDespite normative and legal injunctionsagainst targeting civilians in war, as well asdoubts regarding the effectiveness of suchstrategies, belligerents have frequently turnedtheir guns on noncombatants. Alexander B.Downes, of Duke University, points to twovariables—desperation to win and to savelives in protracted wars of attrition, and theintention to annex territory—to explain thisrepeated resort to civilian targeting.

International Security is America’s leading journal of security affairs. It provides sophisticated analyses of contemporary security issues and discusses their conceptual and historical foundations.The journal is edited at the Belfer Center and published quarterly by the MIT Press. Questions maybe directed to: IS@harvard.edu

John Prendergast of International CrisisGroup, Sarah Sewall of The Carr Center forHuman Rights Policy, and Carola Weil ofThe U.S. Institute of Peace.

The North-South peace process is in danger

of unraveling.

“The North-South peace process, whichended the war in Sudan, is in danger of unrav-eling,” Rotberg said. To attain peace in Sudan,he said, “peace enforcement” must take place.This includes injecting NATO troops into Dar-fur, adding border troops between Darfur andChad, establishing a “no-fly” zone, and con-ducting a national census.

“We continue to research and advocate onbehalf of further comprehensive study of theissue,” Rotberg added. He produced a briefwith the conference recommendations that willbe taken to the Institute for Peace and otherthink tanks in Washington, D.C., along with areport on Darfur written by Intrastate Con-flict’s Debbie West. The report, titled “TheSudan: Saving Lives and Sustaining Peace,”

Sudan Leaders, Experts Recommend Steps for Peace by Robyn Burnham

underscores the importance of the Compre-hensive Peace Agreement (CPA) and the stepsthat conference participants determined mustbe taken for lasting peace.

Robyn Burnham is a journalism student atSimmons College and an intern with the BelferCenter Communications Office.

Talking Peace: Sudan conference panelists (left toright): Andrew Natsios, former administratorof USAID and Georgetown Universityprofessor, Robert Rotberg, director of theProgram on Intrastate Conflict andConflict Resolution, Arthur Dewey, formerassistant secretary of state for Population,Refugees, and Migration, and Lam Akol,minister of Foreign Affairs in Sudan.

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The Robert and Renée Belfer Centerfor Science and International AffairsGraham Allison, Director79 John F. Kennedy StreetCambridge, MA 02138Tel: 617-495-1400Fax: 617-495-8963www.belfercenter.orgE-Mail: bcsia_ksg@harvard.edu

Belfer Center NewsletterEditor: Sharon Wilke, CommunicationsOfficerE-Mail: sharon_wilke@ksg.harvard.eduRobyn Burnham, Susan Lynch, Diane McCree, and former Belfer Center Communications and OutreachDirector Moira Whelan assisted with thispublication.

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Belfer Center Mission:To provide leadership in advancing policy-relevant knowledge about the most important challenges of international security and other critical issues

where science, technology, environmental policy, and international affairs intersect.

In the Field . . .Managing the Atom Fellow Hassan Abbasspoke at Tufts University’s Fletcher School on“Leadership in South Asia Today: A Compari-son of Leaders in India, Pakistan, andBangladesh” in April 2006. Abbas also spokeon U.S.-Indian relations at the “India InitiativeConference” at Columbia University.

ROK Ambassador Lee Tae-sikdelivered the inaugural speech

in the series.

The Belfer Center’s fitness team landedsecond place in Harvard’s first-ever Team Fit-ness Challenge in April. Biziouras Incorpo-rated, composed of Belfer Center FellowsNikolaos Biziouras, Michael Boyle, OlivierBrighenti, Rachel Gisselquist, MichaelHorowitz, Assaf Moghadam, John Park,and Sebastian Rosato, along with RebekahCrooks and Erin Simpson logged 19,239minutes of yoga, jogging, weight lifting, andother activities. Congratulations to BelferCenter’s brains and brawn!

Science, Technology and GlobalizationProject Director Calestous Juma was thekeynote speaker at a National Academy of Sci-ences conference on global health in Washing-ton, D.C. in April. His speech was titled“Genomics, Innovation and Human Welfare:Policy and Institutional Dimensions.”

Managing the Atom Fellow John Parkand MTA Assistant Sarah Stanlick helpedcoordinate the “2006 KEI-BCSIA SpeakersSeries on Korean Security Issues” co-sponsoredby the Korea Economic Institute and Manag-ing the Atom (MTA) Project. ROK Ambas-sador to the U.S. Lee Tae-sik delivered theinaugural speech at the Center in April.

Belfer Center Faculty Associate DorothyZinberg has been named to the board ofdirectors of a new Internet program calledTalking Science Internet Radio. The programwill be designed to attract audiences not tradi-tionally drawn to science, especially womenand young people.

…and On Our MindsIntrastate Conflict Program Fellow VandaFelbab-Brown’s “The Trouble Ahead: TheCocaleros of Peru,” was published in CurrentHistory in February 2006.

In June, International Relations will publishBelfer Center Senior Fellow Rosemary Foot’sarticle “Torture: The Struggle Over a Peremp-tory Norm in a Counter-Terrorist Era.”

The Foreign Affairs’ May/June 2006 issueincludes “The Long War against Corruption,”an article by Belfer Center Senior FellowBen Heineman, former senior counsel forGeneral Electric, and Fritz Heimann, co-founder of Transparency International.

Former Belfer Center International Secu-rity Program (ISP) Fellow MustafaKibaroglu wrote “Isn’t it Time to SayFarewell to Nukes in Turkey?” pub-lished in the journal European SecurityVol. 14, No. 4, 443–457.

ISP Fellow Assaf Moghdam’s bookreview of Making Sense of Suicide Mis-sions, edited by Diego Gambetta, waspublished in Political Science Quarterly121, (no. 1) in spring 2006: 142–144.

Managing the Atom ResearchAssociate Hui Zhang published“North Korean Denuclearization: AChinese View of the Way Forward” inDisarmament Diplomacy (no. 82) inspring 2006.

Visit our website at www.belfercenter.org to learn more about the Belfer Center.

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Fit Fellows: Five members of the Belfer Center’s winningBiziouras Inc. fitness team: Fellows Nikolas Biziouras(front), and (left to right) Michael Horowitz, AssafMoghadam, Sebastian Rosato, and John Park.