summary natural gasin the world –2017 edition 2017/ngw2017editionsumma… · cedigaz, the...

CEDIGAZ,theInternationalAssociationforNaturalGas

Natural Gas In The World – 2017 Edition

CEDIGAZ, October 2017

SUMMARY

NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2017 EDITION

NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 2017 – SUMMARY

• Worldwide proven natural gas reserves grew by 0.9% year‐on‐year to 196,941 bcm as of December 31,2016 (+ 1,710 bcm). The largest increase was recorded in the Middle‐East (+ 947 bcm), under the impetus of strong reserves growth in Iraq (+662 bcm/21%).

• Worldwide marketed natural gas production edged up 0.2% to 3501.9 bcm in 2016, marking an abrupt halt after a gradual growth of almost 2%/year on average over the five previous years. Much of the lacklustre performance can be attributed to the US, where gas production fell for the first time since the US shale revolution began.

• World gross natural gas production increased by 0.6% to 4384 bcm in 2016. Significant increases were observed in the volumes of reinjected gas (+ 1.2%), flaring/venting (+ 2.2%) and shrinkage (+ 3%).

• Global production of unconventional gas surged 5.3% to 817 bcm and North America still covers more than 85% of the world total.

• International natural gas trade accelerated in 2016, up 6.2% to 1107 bcm, addressing regional imbalances (Europe) and local gas shortages. This expansion was fuelled by both pipeline trade (+ 6.1%) and LNG (+ 6.4%).

• UGS Working Gas Capacity increased by 2.6% (+ 11 bcm) and stood at 424 bcm on December 31,2016 (12% of global gas consumption), driven by expansion in the C.I.S., the Middle‐East and China.

• In 2016, world actual natural gas consumption (including storage variations) increased at a rate of 1.6% to 3528 bcm, in line with the five‐year average.

• In recent years, the role of natural gas in the energy mix has slightly progressed, in a context of falling coal consumption and rising renewable energy production.

• Weak market fundamentals and low oil prices led to both a reduction in international gas prices and a convergence among regional benchmarks.

2


NATURAL GAS RESERVES IN THE WORLD


3


Proved reserves by region

* Unless specified, all data in this report are expressed in billion standard cubic meters.

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 0001975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

NORTH AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST

EUROPE

CIS

CENTRAL AND SOUTH AMERICA

ASIA‐OCEANIA

AFRICA

Source: Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database

4


Regional share of proved natural gas reserves

41%

33%

8%6%

6% 4% 2%

MIDDLE EAST

CIS

ASIA‐OCEANIA

AFRICA

NORTH AMERICA


EUROPE


5


Cumulative proved reserves growth since 2006

‐5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AFRICA

EUROPE


ASIA‐OCEANIA

NORTH AMERICA

MIDDLE EAST

CIS


6


Proved reserves (20 largest reserves holders)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000


7


NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD


8


Evolution of marketed production of oil and natural gas in the world

Gtoe

Source : CEDIGAZ

The global Gas/Oil Production Ratio has fallen in recent years as oil production growth, boosted by US tight oil plays, has surpassed that of natural gas.

In 2016, it reached around 72%, its lowest level since 2010.

9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.51980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Natural Gas

Oil

2000: 60%

1980: 43%

2016: 72%

GAS/OIL RATIO OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION

2011: 74%


Evolution of the world balance of gas production

Source: CEDIGAZ

Evolution 1980 ‐ 2016

* Essentially resulting from the processing of natural gas before it enters the networks, purification and/or extraction of its liquefiable fractions (ethane, LPG, natural gasoline and condensates). This volume includes natural gas used in field and processing plant operations.

10

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Other losses*

Flared & vented

Reinjection

Marketed production

Gas reinjected

10%

Gas flared and vented

3% Other losses (shrinkage)

7%

Marketed production

80%


Recent trends in marketed gas production by region

11

Source: CEDIGAZ

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

North America C.I.S Middle East Asia Oceania Europe Africa South & CentralAmerica

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

In 2016, much of the lacklustre performance can be attributed to the US. Robust and steady growth in the Middle East and Asia‐Oceania. Flat trend in the CIS, Africa and South & Central America.


Evolution of marketed production by geographic zone

Source: CEDIGAZ

Evolution 2006 – 2016: + 2%/year

12

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

South & Central America

Africa

Europe

Asia‐Oceania

Middle East

CIS

North America


Marketed production by country

13

Source: CEDIGAZ

Top‐15 natural gas producers

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Uzbekistan

UAE

Malaysia

Indonesia

Australia

Turkmenistan

Algeria

Saudi Arabia

Norway

China & Hong Kong

Canada

Qatar

Iran

Russia

United States2016

2015


UNCONVENTIONAL GAS IN THE WORLD


14


Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resourcesby type and region, end‐2015

15

Total resources (Tm3) : 784 Tm3

Conv. : 434 CBM : 50 Tight : 81 Shale gas : 218

Source: International Energy Agency (WEO 2016) based on BGR (2015), BP (2016), Cedigaz (2016), O&GJ (2015), US EIA/ARI (2013), EIA (2015), USGS, IEA databases

Americas

Latin America

E.Europe/EurasiaEurope

Middle East & Africa

Asia‐Oceania


Unconventional gas production in the worldYear 2016

16

North America covers more than 85% of global unconventional gas production.

Source: CEDIGAZ Estimates

US75%

Canada11%

China8%

Australia4%

Others2%

Tight gas35%

Shale gas56%

CBM9%


Evolution of US dry shale gas production

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50Rest of US 'shale'

Permian

Utica

Marcellus

Haynesville

Eagle Ford

Fayetteville

Barnett

Woodford

Bakken

Antrim

Bcf/d

Source: EIA


INTERNATIONAL NATURAL GASTRADE


18


Recent trends in international gas trade (2)

19

Source: CEDIGAZ

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2014 2015 2016

LNG ‐ Inter LNG ‐ Intra Inter ‐ Pipeline Intra ‐ Pipeline

201620152014


Regional importing markets Regional exporting markets

Net imports Net exports

Recent trends in interregional trade

Source: CEDIGAZ

20

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Europe Asia‐Oceania North America

2014

2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

CIS Middle East Africa South & CentralAmerica

2014

2015

2016


International imports by region

21

Total 2015 = 1042 Bcm Total 2016 = 1107 Bcm

Source: CEDIGAZ

44%

28%

13%

6%4% 4%

1%

Europe

Asia Oceania

North America

CIS

Middle East


Africa

44%

28%

14%

5%4% 3%2%

Europe

Asia Oceania

North America

CIS

Middle East


Africa


International exports by region

22

Source: CEDIGAZ

Total 2015 = 1042 Bcm Total 2016 = 1107 Bcm

25%

22%

15%

14%

12%

8%4% C.I.S.

Europe

Middle East

Asia‐Oceania

North America

Africa


25%

21%

14%

15%

13%

9%3%

C.I.S.

Europe

Middle East

Asia‐Oceania

North America

Africa



Recent trends in international pipeline flows

23

International pipeline flows by importing zone

International pipeline flows by exporting zone

Source: CEDIGAZ

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Europe NorthAmerica

C.I.S. AsiaOceania

MiddleEast

South &CentralAmerica

Africa

2014

2015

2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

C.I.S. Europe NorthAmerica

Africa MiddleEast

AsiaOceania

South &CentralAmerica

201420152016


Evolution of international gas trade:Pipeline versus LNG

24

Source: CEDIGAZ

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Pipeline LNG

From 1996, intra‐CIS trade is included

32%


Evolution of net LNG imports

25

Source: CEDIGAZ

* Japan, South Korea & Taiwan

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

3501964

1966

1968

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

Middle East, South/Central America & Africa

Asia ‐ Emerging markets

Asia ‐ Established markets*

Europe

North America


International natural gas flows by main country (1)

26

International imports in the top‐ten importing countries

International exports in the top‐ten exporting countries

Source: CEDIGAZ

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Germany Japan United StatesChina & Hong Kong Italy FranceUnited Kingdom Turkey South KoreaMexico

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Russia Qatar Norway CanadaUnited States Australia Algeria NetherlandsTurkmenistan Malaysia


UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE IN THE WORLD


27


Evolution of global UGS working gas capacity

8%

9%

10%

11%

12%

13%

14%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016

WGC (bcm)

WGC/Gas consumption

Sources: Cedigaz UGS Database, Cedigaz Natural Gas Statistical Database

28


Regional share of working gas capacity (Total 424 bcm)

38%

30%

25%

5% 2%

North America

C.I.S

Europe

Asia/Oceania

Middle East

Central and South America

29


Working gas capacity by storage type

12%

80%

8%

Abandoned mine

Aquifer

Depleted field

Rock cavern

Salt Cavern

Source: Cedigaz UGS Database

30


NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION IN THE WORLD


31


Evolution of the world energy mix

Natural gas21.5

Coal27.1

Oil32,4

Nuclear4.9

Renewables14.1

2016(%share of primary fuels)

Source: CEDIGAZ Estimates

Over ten years, the share of natural gas in the primary energy mix has gained 1 point to 21.5%

32

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Coal

Oil

Natural gas

Nuclear

Renewables

In parallel, the share of renewables has risen from 12% to 14%.

Coal share has declined significantly from 29% to 27% in the past five years.


Evolution of apparent consumption by geographic zone

Source: CEDIGAZ

2006 ‐ 2016 : + 2%/year

33

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Africa


Middle East

Europe

CIS

Asia‐Oceania

North America


Evolution of apparent consumption in the top‐tenconsuming countries

34

World Total 2016 = 3502 Bcm

Source: CEDIGAZ

Top‐10 consuming countries

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mexico

UAE

Canada

Germany

Saudi Arabia

Japan

Iran

China

Russia

United States

22%

12%

6%5%3%3%3%3%

2%2%

39%

United States Russia China & Hong KongIran Japan Saudi ArabiaGermany Canada UAEMexico Others


Recent trends in actual gas consumption by region

35

Actual gas consumption*

* Figures differ from apparent consumption as actual gas consumption takes stock changes into account.

Source: CEDIGAZ

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 000

North America Asia CIS Europe Middle East S & CentralAmerica

Africa

2014

2015

2016


Recent trends in actual gas consumption by economic zone

36

Total 2016 = 3528 bcm

Source: CEDIGAZ

47%

16%

37%

OECD CIS Emerging markets

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

OECD CIS Emerging markets

2014

2015

2016


INTERNATIONAL GAS PRICESNATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD – 2017 EDITION

37


Evolution of international oil and gas prices

38

Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters

$/MBtu 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Henry Hub 2.8 3.8 4.4 2.6 2.5

Europe - Average 11.5 11.8 10.1 6.8 4.8Japan LNG 16.6 16 16 10.2 6.9

Brent 19.3 18.7 17.1 9 7.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Henry Hub

Europe ‐ Average

Japan LNG

Brent


Evolution of international gas prices

39

Source: CEDIGAZ, US EIA, Reuters

$/MBtu

0

5

10

15

20Europe ‐ Average

Spot NBP

Brent 6‐M average

Japon ‐ LNG

Japan spot LNG

Henry Hub

NATURAL GAS IN THE WORLD 2017

Full version (97 slides) + Excel Data Files (Reserves, Production, Trade,Consumption, Underground Gas Storage) available to Cedigaz membersPrice for non‐members:• Full slideshow (PDF): 350 Euros (VAT excluded)• Full slideshow (PDF) + Data (Excel): 1,500 Euros (VAT excluded)

More: http://www.cedigaz.org/products/annual-surveys-2017.aspx


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About CEDIGAZCEDIGAZ is an international association dedicated to natural gas information and has around 80 members in40 countries. CEDIGAZ data has been the industry's reference since its foundation in 1961.

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