sugarcane integration to other agricultural activities
DESCRIPTION
Presentation of Gerd Spavorek for the "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"Apresentação de Gerd Spavorek realizada no "2nd Workshop on the Impact of New Technologies on the Sustainability of the Sugarcane/Bioethanol Production Cycle"Date / Data : Novr 11th - 12th 2009/ 11 e 12 de novembro de 2009 Place / Local: CTBE, Campinas, Brazil Event Website / Website do evento: http://www.bioetanol.org.br/workshop5TRANSCRIPT
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Partners:
BrazilianMinistryofAgrarianDevelopmentICONE–Ins<tutefroInterna<onalTradeNego<a<onsWWF–BrazilChalmersUniversityofTechnology(Göteborg,Sweden)
UmbrellaProject:
AgriculturalLandUseandExpansionModel–Brazil,
AgLUE‐BR
gerdsparovek
Sugarcaneintegra?ontootheragriculturalac?vi?es
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Whatdoweknow?
Sugarcaneiscul<vatedclosetothemills!
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Whatdoweknow?
Numbers:
# 370 mills (2007)
2007/08:
6.2 x 106 ha 483 x 106 Ton sugarcane
60% ethanol 40% sugar 22 x 109 L ethanol (20% export) 30 x 106 Ton sugar
Thepreciseloca<onofthefuture+5to10yearsmills!
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Whatdoweknow?
Theimpactsofthelastsugarcaneexpansionseason(1996‐2006)
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National Agricultural Census 96 and 06 Agricultural Production (Municipal) 96 to 07
Proxy variables for:
Environment (forests)
Food production (other crops)
Development (Municipal GDP)
LUCC (extensive beef and cattle production)
91%oftheanalyzedexpansionExpansion1996‐20064.8to6.1x106ha(1.3x106ha)
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Food proxy Other crops
CEA
PEA-AM
PEA PEA-NoAM
CEA ScEx ScNoEx
Other crops area 20 19 % municipal area Other crops increase 2 2 % year-1
PEA-AM Other crops area 9 11 % municipal area Other crops increase 11 8 % year-1
PEA-NoAM Other crops area 4 10 % municipal area Other crops increase 2 2 % year-1
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Extensive Land Use proxy Pastures and Cattle
CEA
PEA-AM
PEA PEA-NoAM
CEA ScEx ScNoEx
Pasture area 39 52 % municipal area Pasture dif. (2006-1996) -12 -9 % Cattle density 54 73 head km-2 of mun. Cattle head increase -2 0 % year-1
PEA Pasture area 34 37 % municipal area Pasture dif. (2006-1996) 3 1 % Cattle density 23 25 head km-2 of mun. Cattle head increase 2 3 % year-1
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Whatdoweknow?
Thelastseason(1996‐2006)isspa<allycoincidentwithcurrentexpansion
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Cane
Whatdoweknow?
Canewillexpand&interactonpastures.
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Pasture
Newmills
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Whatdoweconclude?
Themostimportantintegra<onsystemiswithlivestockproduc<on!
andthatit….
isurgent……
hastobelargescale…..
hastoadapttodifferentlivestockproduc?onsystems…..
willnotbeadoptedunderregularexpansionpaXerns….
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Integra<on:fuel&food&localdevelopment
Polosdeproduçãodeenergia&alimento&cidadania
CommunityHubsforEnergyandFood(CHEF)
Bioenergyandfoodproduc?onforlocaldevelopmentinBrazil:Inputsforpolicy‐making
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Integratedscenario
Millsareapoten?allowcostfeedproduc?onfacili?esCompletera?onforruminantsisanoldtechnology(backtothe1980s)widely
usedbeforeco‐genera?onbecomeanop?on
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For15LmilkadayorBeefca`lefe`ering
*Produc?onusesmill’sprocesssteam(bioenergy)
Wintermaintenance(beeformilk)
Completera<oformilkorbeef Completera<onformaintanance
Hydrolyzed bagasse * Bagasse Yeast Residual sugars (Molasse) + Grain Minerals, vitamins
Hydrolyzed bagasse * Bagasse Yeast Stillage (vinasse) Filter cake + Minerals, vitamins
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80%Pasture
20%Forest
20%Forest
30%Pasture
50%Otherlanduse
FoodSoy/biodiesel
Cane
Mill+Feed+Biodiesel
Ra?on
Original:extensive Integrated
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sparoveketal.,2009 Petrobras(RJ)@180809
Feasibilitymodel:Mill
1milliontonscaneperyearon15,000ha
Ra?onproduc?oncapacity:40,000ton
20,000tonsforbeefcaXletermina?on–7,500animalsfor120days+15,000tonsformilkcaws–1,500animalsfor365days+5,000tonsmilkcawsmaintenance–1,750animalsfor90days
Investment(U$): 285,000
Supplies+Maintenance(U$/year): 1,900,000
Ra<onsellvalue(U$/ton): 62
25%profitmargin(U$/year): 495,000
Comparisonofbagassesellvalue(U$/ton):
Assumedinthera?ocalcula?on: 21
Currentvalueinco‐genera<on*: 8Bestscenarioforco‐genera?on*: 21
*Withoutinvestmentcostandtransmissionlines
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Farmersperspec?ve:beforeandaiertheintegra<on
Type
Descrip<on Profit Area
Technology SizeBefore Aier Integrated/Cane
U$/hayear ha/ha
Extensive low Large 40 100 2.95
Stable high Large 130 220 2.01
Diverse Medium/high Medium 100 170 1.19
Special low Small 240 370 1.24
Strategic high Small 1050 1170 0.57
Thetwomarkedtypesarethemostcomumfarmsystemsinthesugarcaneexpansionregion
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Agriculturalproduc<onvalue(2005)R$km‐2
Animalproduc<ononpasture(2005)AUkm‐2
AgriculturevsAnimalproduc?onparadox
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Migra?onofcaXlefarming!
Animalproduc<ononpasture(2003)AUkm‐2
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Whatdowegetwiththeintegra?on?
Forsure:
• Createaneconomicreasontopreventlivestockproduc<ontomove
• Keepalargerdiversityinland‐use• Don’tinterruptcurrenteconomicop<ons
• Increaseoutputoffoodproducts• ReduceGHGemissions
• Avoidlandpropertyconcentra<on• Re‐investregionally
Wemay(producingboth,biodieselandethanolinintegratedsystem):
• Reducethecostsofintegra<on• Increaseevenmoretheoutputanddiversityoffoodproducts
• ReduceevenmoreGHGemissionsusingbagassetoproduceBiodiesel
• Amplifytheopportuni<esforsmall‐holderssupplyoilseedcrops
• Intensifyoilseedcropproduc<ononlandmarginalforcane(moreintenselanduse)