submitting questions...the plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, reducing...
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Caution regarding forward-looking statements
We may make forward-looking statements in this Webinar, or in the 2020 World LNG Report, and in other communications. Forward-looking statements in this webinar include, but are not limited to, statements relating to the development of the Global LNG Market and potential trends in investments, price or general market developments goals, regulatory or Government policy decisions.. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “believe”, “expect”, “foresee”, “forecast”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “estimate”, “goal”, “plan” and “project” and similar expressions of future or conditional verbs such as “will”, “may”, “should”, “could” or “would”.
The forward-looking statements made in the webinar entitled “IGU 2020 World LNG Report Press Conference”, are made as of 27 April 2020 and, accordingly, are subject to change after such date. Except as may be required by applicable securities laws, we do not undertake any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Forward-looking statements, by their very nature, are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties and are based on several assumptions, both general and specific, which give rise to the possibility that actual results could differ materially from our expectations expressed in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements and that market development outlooks, objectives, plans and strategic priorities may not be achieved. As a result, we cannot guarantee that any forward-looking statement will materialize and we caution you against relying on any of these forward-looking statements.
Menelaos (Mel) Ydreos
International Gas Union
71
Welcome Remarks
Keynote
Marco Alverà, CEO Snam Joe M Kang, President, IGU
Nobuo Tanaka, IGU Wise Person
Role of Hydrogen2020-9-26 IGU Nobuo TANAKA
IGU Wise Person
Global Energy Review 2020
Dr. Fatih Birol, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), said that COVID19 made for a historic “Black April” for the oil
markets.
April’s oil demand declined by 29 million barrels per day; almost 30 % of global demand collapsed due to the lockdowns. 6
7
The 20-year switch
When consumers needed more energy in the past, they traditionally turned to oil
Change in global oil and electricity consumption in the Stated Policies Scenario, 2018 - 2040
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
Oil Electricity
Mtoe
In the future, they turn first to electricity – even more so in the Sustainable Development Scenario
WEO2019
8
Saudi Aramco worries if Peak Oil Demand happens much earlier than expected.But it may have happened by COVID19.
The Stone Age didn’t end because we ran out of stones.
WEO2017
9
Energy systems would shift towards structurally cleaner ones
The plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, reducing GHG emissions by 4.5 billion tonnes and putting them on a path towards achieving long-term climate goals, including the Paris Agreement.
Energy-sector GHG emissions
Without a sustainable recovery
With a sustainable recovery
Gt CO2-eq
30
32
34
36
38
40
2005 2010 2015 2020 2023
A plan for a Sustainable Recovery post Covid-19
10
Natural gas was also hit by COVID19 but less than oil
11
Over-Capacity of LNG facility may continue
12
TCFD; Financial Driver for Energy Transformation
• More than 1353organizations are supporting the TCFD as of August 2020.
• 276 Japanese organizations support TCFD.
• They include ANA, ASKUL, Asset Management One, DaiNippon Printing, Dai-ichi Life H, Daiwa House, Daiwa Securities,DENSO, DBJ, FSA, Fujifilm, Fujitsu, GPIF, Hitachi, Japan Post, JXG, Kao, Keidanren, Kirin H, Komatsu, Konica Minolta, Lion, LIXIL, MARUI G, METI, Meiji Yasuda Life Insurance, MOE, Mitsubishi Corp, Mitsubishi Chemical, MHI, MUFJ, Mitsui & Co., Mizuho Fin G, Mitsui Chemical, NEC, Nikko Asset M, Nikon, Nomura Asset M, Nippon Life Ins, Nissay Asset M, Nomura H, NYK Line, OMRON, Resona H, Ricoh, Sekisui House, Shin-Etsu Chem, Shiseido, Sojitz Corp, Sompo H, Sophia Univ, Sumitomo Corp, SMFG, Sumitomo Chem, Teijin, Tokio Marine, TEPCO, Tohoku Electric Power, Toshiba, TOTO, Toyota Motor, Yokokawa Elec, Chiyoda Engineering, the Sasakawa Peace Foundation,,,,
The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) will develop voluntary, consistent climate-related financial risk disclosures for use by companies in providing information to investors, lenders, insurers, and other stakeholders.
13
Demand side driven energy transformation: RE100 Corporations
Finance: Swiss Re Group, alstria, Amalgamated Bank, Aviva, AXA, Bank of America, Bankia, BBVA, British Land, CaixaBank, Canary Wharf Group, Capital One, Citi, Commerzbank, Credit Agricole, Danske Bank, DBS Bank Ltd, DNB, Equinix, Fifth Third Bancorp, Fuyo General Lease Co., Ltd., Goldman Sachs, Helvetia, HSBC, ING Group, Iron Mountain Incorporated, Johnan Shinkin Bank JPMorgan Chase & Co., Jupiter Asset Management, Land Securities, Mace, Morgan Stanley, Nordea, Prudential plc, RBS group, Schroders, TD Bank, UBS, Voya Financial, Wells Fargo, Asset Management One, Nomura Research Inst, Daiichi Life, Durable Goods and Services :IKEA Group, AEON Co., Ltd, BMW, Burberry, Coop Sapporo, Crown Estate, Daiwa House Group, Decathlon, Dentsu Aegis Network, Etsy, FIA Formula E, General Motors, Gürmen Group, H&M, Interface, Kingspan, LEGO Group, Mahindra Holidays & Resorts India, Marks & Spencer, Marui Group, Nike, Inc., Pearson, PVH, Sekisui House, Signify, Sky, Starbucks, Tata Motors Limited, Vail Resorts, VF Corporation, Watami Co., Ltd., YOOX Group, Takashimaya, Asahikasei Homes, Non-Durables and Services : Anheuser-Busch InBev, Califia Farms, Carlsberg Group, Clif Bar & Company, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Colruyt Group, Danone, Diageo, Estée Lauder Companies, Grupo Bimbo, Hatsun Agro Products Ltd, International Flavors and Fragrances Inc., Kellogg, L'OCCITANE Group, Mars, Incorporated, Nestle, Organic Valley, Procter & Gamble, Reckitt Benckiser (RB), TCI Co., Ltd, Tesco, TRIDL, Unilever, Walmart, OnoyakuhinTechnology: Adobe, Apple, Autodesk, eBay, Facebook, Fujitsu, Fujifilm Holdings Corp ,Google, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, HP, Inc., Infosys, Lyft, Microsoft, Rackspace, RICOH Company, Ltd., Salesforce, SAP, Sony Corporation , Visa, VMWare, WeWork, Workday, Konica-Minolta, Panasonic, Advantest, NipponUnisys, Fujikura, Other Services; ASKUL Corporation, Bloomberg, BROAD Group, ENVIPRO HOLDINGS Inc., Gatwick Airport Limited, Heathrow Airport, IHS Markit, La Poste, McKinsey & Company, PwC, RELX Group, SAVE S.p.A Group, Schneider Electric, SGS, Steelcase, Swiss Post, Vaisala, Tokyu Land Corp, Daito Trust Construction Co Ltd, Toda corp, SumitomoRingyo, Mitsui Fudosan, Mitsubishi Jisho, AndoHazama, Rakuten, Lixil, Tokyu Group, Material: AkzoNobel, Corbion, Dalmia Cement, Elion Resources Group, Elopak, Givaudan, Royal DSM, Tetra Pak , Asahikasei,
AjinomotoTelecom Services: BT Group, KPN, Proximus, Telefonica S.A., T-Mobile US, Inc., Vodafone GroupHealth care: AstraZeneca, Biogen, Johnson & Johnson, Novo Nordisk, Royal PhilipsEnergy: VestasOthers; etc etc
250 RE100 companies (38 Japanese) have made a commitment to go '100% renewable'.
14
IEA’s “Sustainable Recovery Plan” calls for four technologies to accelerate decarbonization
• boost innovation in crucial technology areas including hydrogen, batteries, carbon capture utilisation and storage(CCUS), and small modular nuclear reactors.
• The plan would make 2019 the definitive peak in global emissions, putting them on a path towards achieving long-term climate goals, including the Paris Agreement.
15
Hydrogen – A common element of our energy future ?
• Momentum currently behind hydrogen is unprecedented, with more and more policies, projects and plans by governments & companies in all parts of the world
• Hydrogen can help overcome many difficult energy challenges
Ø Integrate more renewables, including by enhancing storage options & tapping their full potential (Green H2)
Ø Help Oil, Coal and Gas exporters by providing clean alternatives with CCS (Blue H2)
Ø Decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors – steel, chemicals, trucks, ships & planes
Ø Enhance energy security by diversifying the fuel mix & providing flexibility to balance grids
• But there are challenges: costs need to fall; infrastructureneeds to be developed; cleaner hydrogen is needed; and regulatory barriers persist
16
Potential Supplies of Blue and Green Ammonia
Canada
AustraliaWestern, South, Queensland
Renewables (Green)
Natural Gas (Blue)
Oman
Saudi Arabia
USA
Japan and Asia
17
A hydrogen strategy for a climate-neutral Europe
Phase Target
2020-2024
install at least 6 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers and the production of up to 1 million tonnes of re-hydrogen
2025-2030
install at least 40 GW of renewable hydrogen electrolysers by 2030 and the production of up to 10 million tonnes of re-hydrogen
2030-2050
renewable hydrogen technologies should reach maturity and be deployed at large scale to reach all hard-to-decarbonise sectors
Brussels, 8.7.2020 COM(2020) 301 final
Japan’s Basic hydrogen strategy (2017) plans to scale up commercial hydrogen supply chain to 300K tons in 2030 and aims 10 million+ tons of clean hydrogen in the future
18
Europe and China are the leaders of Hydrogen Economy
19
20
“Bending down the emissions trajectory by Innovation, Green Finance and Women”
Climate Lens Investment should work hand in hand with Gender Lens Investment. DISCLOSURE is the key for success.
20
Ashish Sethia
Global Head of Commodities
BloombergNEF
Global Gas Market: Post Pandemic Recovery & Role in Energy Transition Global Gas Report 2020
Ashish Sethia, [email protected] Annex, [email protected] 16, 2020
2019 Recap
Source: BloombergNEF, BP, Cedigaz Note: * average of Henry Hub, TTF, and Japan Korea Marker (JKM) for 2019 vs 2018
A year of gains
24.2%Gas share in primary energy mix in 2019
+2.3%Gas demand growth in 2019
+3.5%Gas production growth in 2019
-37%Change in gas prices at key global hubs*
+13%Growth in LNG trade in 2019
+2.9%Growth in gas trade in 2019
Share in global primary energy mix Yearly change in global power generation, 2019
Global power generation by fuel type, 2019
Gas growing across the energy sector
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, June 2020.
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019
-400
-200
0
200
400
Coa
l
Gas
Hyd
ro
Ren
ewab
les
Nuc
lear Oil
Oth
ers
TWh
27,005TWh36.4%
23.3%
15.6%
10.4%
10.4%
3.1% 0.9%
27,005TWh
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
%
Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Hydro Renewables
Source: BloombergNEF, IGU World LNG Report 2020. Note: Pacific includes Papua New Guinea, Malaysia and Indonesia. Africa includes Cameroon, Mozambique, Mauritania/Senegal. Equity offtake figures are rounded.
LNG liquefaction project FIDs
Supply rising in most regions
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Billion cubic meters per annum
Pacific RussiaAfricaU.S. CanadaAustralia
Source: Cedigaz. Note: C.I.S. is Commonwealth of Independent States.
Global gas supply
960 1,058 1,138
592 613 648
842 885
901
250 234
218 637
666 687
167 164
162 231
244 247 3,678
3,865 4,001
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2017 2018 2019
Billion cubic meters
Africa
Latin America
Middle East
Europe
C.I.S.
Asia Pacific
North America
Gas prices in key region EU carbon price allowance Fuel-switching potential in 2020 in South Korea
Prompting low prices and fuel switching
Source: BloombergNEF Source: BloombergNEFSource: BloombergNEF, Korea Power Exchange, KEPCO
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Aug
14D
ec 1
4Ap
r 15
Aug
15D
ec 1
5Ap
r 16
Aug
16D
ec 1
6Ap
r 17
Aug
17D
ec 1
7Ap
r 18
Aug
18D
ec 1
8Ap
r 19
Aug
19D
ec 1
9Ap
r 20
$ per MMBtu
Asia, Japan Korea Marker
U.K. NBP
U.S. Henry Hub
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
EUR/t
EU carbon price
Required average carbon price for coal-gas switching
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Jan-
19M
ar-1
9M
ay-1
9Ju
l-19
Sep-
19N
ov-1
9Ja
n-20
Mar
-20
May
-20
Jul-2
0Se
p-20
Nov
-20
TWh
Fuel switchingpotential
LNG
Coal
Yearly change in LNG exports, 2019
Demand, supply and geopolitics shaping trade flows
Source: BloombergNEF Note: LNG exports based on 2019 departure year, imports based on 2019 arrival.
-5 0 5 10 15 20 25
U.S.Russia
AustraliaEgypt
AlgeriaMalaysia
P.N.G.Trin idadNigeriaOman
CameroonU.A.E.Angola
PeruBrunei
ArgentinaNorway
QatarEq. Guinea
Indonesia
Yearly change in LNG imports, 2019
-10 -5 0 5 10 15
U.K.China
FranceSpain
NetherlandsItaly
BangladeshBelgium
IndiaPortugal
ColombiaMexicoTaiwan
ChileU.S.
JordanArgentina
EgyptSouth Korea
Japan
Yearly change in pipeline exports, 2019
Source: Cedigaz
Yearly change in pipeline imports, 2019
-30 -20 -10 0 10
North America
Latin America
Europe
C.I.S.
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Billion cubic meters
-30 -20 -10 0 10
North America
Latin America
Europe
C.I.S.
Africa
Middle East
Asia Pacific
Billion cubic meters
Daily industrial gas demand in Italy Daily power demand in Spain Weekly LNG imports
Market recovering from Covid-19 shock
Source: ENTSO-E, TERNA, Snam, Enagas, BloombergNEF Note: ‘No impact’ demand forecasts are based on historical data, temperatures, cyclical factors, and take into consideration weekends and national public holidays, but not the impact of Covid-19. The solid blue series represents a 70% confidence interval, the light blue is 95%. Source: BloombergNEF
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
1-Ja
n
15-J
an
29-J
an
12-F
eb
26-F
eb
11-M
ar
25-M
ar
8-Ap
r
22-A
pr
6-M
ay
20-M
ay
3-Ju
n
Billion cubic meters
Europe
China
India
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20
mcm/d
Actual value
No impact forecast
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20
GW
Actual value
No impact forecast
Extreme lockdownforecast
Looking Ahead
Covid-19 to impact demand near-term; new supply needed longer-term
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: single-wave pandemic assumes economic recovery is under way in 4Q 2020, multi-wave assumes 2Q 2021 and enduring pandemic assumes 4Q 2021.
LNG demand varies under Covid-19 scenarios
400
420
440
460
480
500
520
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
Billion cubic meters
Enduring pandemic
Multi-wave pandemic
Single-wave pandemic
Source: BloombergNEF
New LNG supply needed next decade
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
Billion cubic meters
U.S.
Atlantic Basin
East Africa
West Africa
Russia
Other MENA
Qatar
Australia
Pacific Basin
Demand
Source: BloombergNEF Note: HSFO is high sulphur fuel oil.Source: BloombergNEF. Note: *TTF is the Dutch gas price, the benchmark price for northwest Europe.
Northwest Europe lignite/coal-to-gas fuel switching range Marine bunker demand outlook, 2019-25
Cost competitiveness and environmental policies support growth
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Million barrels per day
Other
LNG
0.1% or 0.5% Fuel oil
0.1% Marine gas oil
Scrubbers
Non-compliant
3.5% High sulfur fuel oil
HSFO
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Oct
-15
Oct
-16
Oct
-17
Oct
-18
Oct
-19
Oct
-20
Oct
-21
Oct
-22
Oct
-23
Gas-lignite range
Gas-coal average fuelswitching
TTF*
Euro/MWhHistorical prices Forward prices
Bottom of the lignite to gas switching range
Source: IEA (World Energy Outlook 2019, Stated Policies Scenario), BloombergNEF analysis.
Share of natural gas in power generation Share of natural gas in industrial energy
Gas to continue playing key role in the energy sector
24%
23%22%
2018 2030 2040
Percent share
Other renewables Bioenergy
Hydro Nuclear
Natural gas Oil
Coal
22%26% 28%
2018 2030 2040
Percent share
Other renewables Bioenergy
Heat Electricity
Natural gas Oil
Coal
Source: BloombergNEF
China gas demand forecast, by sector
Demand to double in key markets by 2040
0
160
320
480
640
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Billion cubic meters
Loss
Chemical
Transport
Electricity
Residential &commercial
Industry
Forecast
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: ‘Internal use, loss’ includes gas used by producers, flaring and transmission losses.
India gas demand forecast, by sector
0
40
80
120
160
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Billion cubic meters
Internal use, loss
Power
City gas
Industry
Forecast
Source: Indian Gas ExchangeSource: ICE, CME, LEBA, BloombergNEF. Note: The charts show the futures contracts traded volume as a TWh gas equivalent for comparison.
Traded volumes on Asian gas benchmarks rise India initiates gas trading hubs
Higher liquidity in benchmarks and deregulation helping
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-
14
Nov
-14
Sep
-15
Jul-1
6
May
-17
Mar
-18
Jan-
19
Nov
-19
TWh
Germany NCG French hubs JKM (ICE & CME)
Meredith Annex
Head of Heating & Cooling Analysis
BloombergNEF
Decarbonization opportunities for gasFocus on hydrogen
Source: BloombergNEF
The development of decarbonized gas is a crucial next step for climate goals to be reached
per ton of hot rolled coil(Using coking coal: $495-651)
Steel Cement Aluminum recycling
Ammonia Methanol Oil refining
Hydrogen is a promising emissions reduction pathway for the hard-to-abate industry sectorsCost of manufacturing goods or essential inputs, using $1/kg hydrogen
$582 per gigajoule of heat(Using coal: $1.40-4.30)
$7 per gigajoule of heat(Using natural gas: $1.90-11.40)
$7
per ton of ammonia(Using natural gas: $244-574)
$368 per ton of methanol(Using coal: $145-435)
$447 per kilogram of hydrogen(Using natural gas: $0.86-2.59/kg)
$1
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: cost of producing goods using fossil fuels assuming prices of $60-310/t for coking coal, $2-12/MMBtu for natural gas and $40-120/t for thermal coal.
Up to 37% of global emissions could be abated using hydrogen – 22% for less than $100/tCO2Marginal abatement cost curve of using $1/kg hydrogen for emission reductions versus low-cost fossil fuels, 2050
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Carbon price ($/tCO2)
GtCO2/year
Zero-cost abatement
MethanolGas power generation
Space and water heating
Shipping
GlassAluminum
AmmoniaCement
Steel
Cars Buses Trucks
Oil refining
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: sectoral emissions based on 2018 figures, abatement costs for the use of renewable hydrogen (delivered at $1/kg to large users, $4/kg to road vehicles) as a substitute for the lowest-cost fossil fuels in use today globally. Actual abatement costs will vary by country, depending primarily on prevailing fossil fuel prices.
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Aluminum demand is for alumina production and aluminum recycling only. Cement demand is for process heat only. Oil refining demand is for hydrogen use only. Road transport and heating demand that is unlikely to be met by electrification only: assumed to be 50% of space and water heating, 25% of light-duty vehicles, 50% of medium-duty trucks, 30% of buses and 75% of heavy-duty trucks.
Hydrogen could meet up to 24% of the world's energy needs by 2050Potential demand for hydrogen in different scenarios, 2050
Theoretical max Strong Policy Weak Policy
6MMT
Light trucksBuses
Heavy trucks
Ships
Industry515MMT
Power439MMT
Buildings106MMT
Ammonia
Oil refiningAluminum
SteelCement
Peaking power
Space and water heating
Total energy: 195EJTotal H2 demand: 1370MMT
99EJ696MMT
27EJ187MMT
53MMT
219MMT
123MMT
301MMT21MMT37MMT123MMT
Glass
Cars
Methanol
Transport524MMT
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: renewable hydrogen costs based on large projects with optimistic projections for capex. Natural gas prices range from $1.1-10.3/MMBtu, coal from $30-116/t.
The cost of producing renewable hydrogen could fall to nearly $5/MMBtuForecast global range of levelized cost of hydrogen production from large projects
0.0
7.4
14.9
22.3
29.8
37.2
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
RE Coal Gas RE Coal Gas RE Coal Gas
2019 2030 2050
2019$/kg $/MMBtu
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: 1 Benchmark levelized cost of storage (LCOS) at the highest reasonable cycling rate (see detailed research for details). LOHC – liquid organic hydrogen carrier.
Storing hydrogen is challenging, but several options existHydrogen storage options
Gaseous state Liquid state Solid state
Salt caverns Depleted gas fields Rock caverns Pressurized
containersLiquid
hydrogen Ammonia LOHCs Metal hydrides
Main usage (volume and cycling)
Large volumes, months-weeks
Large volumes, seasonal
Medium volumes,
months-weeks
Small volumes, daily
Small - medium volumes, days-
weeks
Large volumes, months-weeks
Large volumes, months-weeks
Small volumes, days-weeks
Working capacity (t-H2)
300-10,000t per cavern
300-100,000t per field
300-2,500t per cavern
5-1,100kg per container
0.2-200t per tank
1-10,000tper tank
0.18-4,500t per tank 0.1-20kg
Benchmark LCOS ($/kg)1 $0.23 $1.90 $0.71 $0.19 $4.57 $2.83 $4.50 Not evaluated
Possible future LCOS1 $0.11 $1.07 $0.23 $0.17 $0.95 $0.87 $1.86 Not evaluated
Geographical availability Limited Limited Limited Not limited Not limited Not limited Not limited Not limited
Source: BloombergNEF
Low density makes pipelines the best transport option
0
1
10
100
1,000
1 10 100 1,000 10,000
Distance (km)
Volume (tons/day)
Local Urban Inter-city Inter-continental
Large
Mid
Small
Very small
0.06 0.22 1.82
0.05 0.10 0.58
0.76 1.73
3+Ships
3.87
Unviable
Unviable
Transmission pipelines
Distribution pipelines
Trucks
CGH2 LOHCCGH2
NH3
H2 transport costs based on distance and volume ($/kg) 2019
2030 2050
A scaled-up industry could deliver H2 for a benchmark cost of $2/kg in 2030 and $1/kg in 2050
Australia PV $21/MWh
China wind $28/MWh
Japan wind $47/MWhSalt cavern
Rock cavern
Rock cavern
1.48
1.97
2.85
0.0
3.7
7.4
11.2
14.9
18.6
22.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Low Mid High
$/MMBtu$/kg
Australia PV $12/MWh
China wind $17/MWh
Japan wind $33/MWh
0.841.01
1.74
0.0
3.7
7.4
11.2
14.9
18.6
22.3
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Low Mid High
$/MMBtu$/kg
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Power costs depicted are the LCOE used for electrolysis. Production costs are based on a large-scale alkaline electrolyzer with capex of $135/kW in 2030 and $98/kW in 2050. Storage costs assume 50% of total hydrogen demand passes through storage. Transport costs are for a 50km transmission pipeline movement. Compression and conversion costs are included in storage. Low estimate assumes a salt cavern, mid and high estimate a rock cavern for both 2030 and 2050
Estimated delivered hydrogen costs to large-scale industrial users
StorageTransport
Production
Source: BloombergNEF. Note: Based on a levelized cost of electricity from a standalone PV generator of $16/MWh in Algeria and Spain, $26/MWh from onshore wind and $41/MWh from offshore wind in Germany, natural gas price of $1.5/MMbtu in Russia, $8.7/MMbtu in Germany, coal price of $40/t in Germany, pipeline distance of 2,800km from Algeria to Germany, 2,000km from Spain to Germany and 4,000kms from Russia to Germany.
Hydrogen imports via long-distance pipeline are likely to be a cost-effective optionPotential magnitude of resource and landed cost of hydrogen in Germany, 2050
0.76
0.99
0.85
1.311.48
1.41
2.312.54
0.84
0.22 0.16
0.30
2.41
$0.98/kg 1.01
1.71
3.25
Imports from Algeria(pipeline)
Onshore wind inGermany
Imports from Spain(pipeline)
PV in Germany Offshore wind inGermany
Imports from Russia(pipeline)
Coal with CCS inGermany
Gas with CCS inGermany
Imports from SaudiArabia (LH2 ship)
Transport
Renewable production
Coal production with CCS
Gas production with CCS
1,000s TWhs of potential resource
100s 10s 100s 1,000s 1,000s 1,000s 1,000s10s
Source: BloombergNEF
Today:
• There is growing government policy in place to increase the use of hydrogen
• Germany is leading the way, announcing $10 billion of funding to install 5GWs of electrolyzers by 2030.
• The European Commission has announced a 10MMT renewable hydrogen target, and plan to build 40GW of electrolyzers, which would require $500 billion of investment
• Numerous governments have developed national hydrogen strategies, but most are yet to introduce investment mechanisms. With Germany and the EU now leading the way, this could soon change
• Outside the EU policy measures are generally too focused on cars, which are a less promising application
The signs that hydrogen is scaling-up have now emerged
We estimate scaling-up to 2030 requires:
$150 billionOf cumulative subsidies
$300 billionOf investment
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Camilla Palladino
EVP Corporate Strategy &Investor Relations
Snam
Integrated presence along the value chain
TRANSPORTAND DISPATCHING STORAGE REGASIFICATION
BIOMETHANECNG/LNG STATIONS SMALL SCALE LNG
With a market capitalization of € ~15* bn and revenues of € ~2.2 bn, Snam is one of Europe’s main energy players
~41,600 km ~20** bcm/y capacity
~20 bcmcapacity
+100 CNG/LCNG contracted stations
Targeting 3in Italy
Developing biomethaneinstallations in Italy via
* Market Capitalization: BBG 05/06/2020 **Total regasification capacity: Panigaglia (100% Snam); Rovigo Adriatic LNG (7.3% Snam); Revithoussa (DESFA) e OLT (49.07% Snam)
Snam - Europe’s largest natural gas utility
SOURCE: Snam analysis
Ideal renewable production areas in Europe include: • North Africa for solar and wind power • North Sea for wind power
Key benefits of locating some renewables offshore include: • Lower LCOEs due to Greater solar irradiation/wind speed• Lower seasonality in production • Land use/scalability are much greater
H2 can be transported via existing pipelines at low cost, both vs electricity and vs other H2 transport options
High solar availability in the south of
Europe/North Africa
Potential to import from North Africa
Hydrogen transport: Italy at the centre of the North African opportunity
High offshore wind availability from the
North Sea
Snam as an Enabler; Hydrogen BU created
• Pipelines: network is largely hydrogen ready, key reason to underpin replacement
• Components: gas chromatographs and other minor instruments would need replacing
• Gas compressor units: testing the impact of a 5-10% blend.
• Geological storage sites: ongoing analysis and research
• Ongoing assessment of use of membranes to separate NG and H2 out of NGH2 blend
• Evaluating potential opportunities/pilot projects to scale up clean H2 production and use
• Potential partnership with other operators of the value chain
• Scouting for promising technologies
• Long-term scenarios: Expected key role of hydrogen in the energy mix
• Grid evolution: Development of pathway analyses with increasing share of green gasses
• Technical standards: involvement in focus groups to develop common rules on H2 in Italy and Europe
Negligible investment to reach5-10% NGH2 readiness
Ongoing investment in the grid«Hy-ready»
Ongoing workto support
long-term grid planning
Scouting the marketfor investment opportunities and
partnership
Asset Readiness2.System design1. Value chain development3.
Snam hydrogen strategy
H2NG
75 bar 5 bar
L ≈ 700m
R.C. 818End User 1
Pasta Factory
End User 2Mineral Water Bottling
Plant
The Contursi Terme trial
Blending• 10% H2NG carried out at Contursi Terme• Ongoing test for compressors at 10% blend • Ongoing analysis and testing on geological storage• Membranes for gas separation are a key area of focus
New “Hy-Ready” procurement standard • based on ASME B31.12 ‘’Hydrogen Piping and Pipeline’• Suitable for blends up to 100%
Hydrogen audit on existing pipelines• H2 readiness assessment (based on ASME B 31.12)• 70% of our 34 000km of pipeline is hydrogen ready
Snam: ensuring the network is “hydrogen ready”
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Report is available for download @
www.igu.org