submission no 20 part 4 - aph.gov.au
TRANSCRIPT
Joint Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs, Defence and TradeForeign Affairs Sub-Committee
Submission No 20 Part 4Sub Divided & Low ResolutionAnnex A – F-22A DataAnnex B – Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs Industry 2001 ProposalAnnex C – Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (Since May 1998)Annex D – Adverse Effects of Early F-111 RetirementAnnex E – Sources and Bibliography
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
Organisation: AIR POWER AUSTRALIA
Authors: Dr Carlo Kopp, MIEEE, MAIAA, PEngMr Peter A Goon, BEng, FTE (USNTPS)
Address: www.ausairpower.net
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 119
5 Annex A - F-22A Data
Figure 44: The F-22A is uniquely the only fighter in production, or planned, which combinessupersonic cruise capability and top tier stealth performance. (US Air Force).
This Annex provides a series of charts and diagrams which illustrate basic F-22A capabilities andprovides some comparisons against the Joint Strike Fighter.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 120
Figure 45: An early production F-22A Raptor releasing a GBU-32 JDAM satellite aided guidedbomb (upper). The F-22A is a true multirole fighter, intended to excel in the air superiority role,but also to attack the most heavily defended surface targets with precision guided munitions. Withunchallenged survivability it will also be used for electronic and imaging radar reconnaissance. TheF-22A is designed to carry internal weapons where stealth is required, but can also carry significantexternal payloads where stealth is not required (lower) (US Air Force).
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 121
Top ten reasons why the F-22A Raptor is the best choice to replace Australia’s F/A-18A Hornets:
1. GREATER CAPABILITY BETTER SUITED TO AUSTRALIA’S NEEDS. The F-22Ais over twice as capable compared to what is being planned as the Joint Strike Fighter.
2. MORE COST EFFECTIVE. Buying the F-22A and upgrading the F-111s will be a cheaperyet more capable solution to the current plans.
3. BETTER DEFINED AND EARLIER SCHEDULE (NO RISK OF CAPABILITY GAP).Buying the F-22 toward the end of the currently planned full rate production would put thebuy in the 2010-2012 timeframe.
4. LESS TECHNICAL AND FINANCIAL RISK. The F-22A is a known commodity thatis flying today. The Joint Strike Fighter has yet to fly let alone complete development anddemonstrate its capability.
5. MAINTAINING STRATEGIC POSITION AND RELEVANCE IN THE REGION. Thesurvivability of the Joint Strike Fighter against post 2010 Sukhoi Su-30 derivative aircraft ishighly problematic.
6. DEVELOPING AUSTRALIAN DEFENCE INDUSTRY. By targeting return on invest-ment already made in F-111 support capabilities.
7. LESS EFFECT ON BALANCE OF TRADE. Fewer tax payer dollars have to be spent offshore.
8. BETTER LIFE CYCLE GROWTH CAPABILITY. The F-22A and F-111 are larger aircraftwith greater system growth potential.
9. BETTER LONGEVITY AND RETURN ON INVESTMENT. The F-22A and F-111are more robust airframe designs that have not been subject to the ’Cost As an IndependentVariable’ (CAIV) driven cost and capability reductions as is the case with the Joint StrikeFighter.
10. INDEPENDENCE, SELF RELIANCE AND VALUED CONTRIBUTION TO DE-FENCE OF THE REGION.
With the F-22A in service as a replacement for the F/A-18A, it provides the capability to defeat themost capable regional systems, creating a more permissive operational environment for the F-111.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 122
(c) 2005, Carlo Kopp
A33−54
54
08
A33−24
A33−08
Figure 46: This diagram illustrates the F-22A in RAAF colours (C. Kopp).
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 123
Blo
ck 1
0 A
ir S
up
eri
ori
ty / In
terc
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t C
on
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ura
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ura
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n (
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terc
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fig
ura
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fig
ura
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20
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AP
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TE
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ES
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ck
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on
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n (
2007)
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ote
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xt
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B −
Ex
t JA
SS
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res
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nfi
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rati
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Fig
ure
47:
The
F-2
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ceed
sth
ein
tern
alAir-A
irM
issile
carr
iage
capa
bilit
yof
the
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ike
Fig
hter
,an
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atch
esth
est
ealthy
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rnal
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lity
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gth
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iam
eter
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-32
sate
llite
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heF-2
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ceed
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eno
n-st
ealthy
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rnal
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elca
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lity
ofth
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int
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Fig
hter
by50
%.
Use
das
abom
ber
,th
eF-2
2Aca
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rry
asas
man
yor
mor
ewea
pon
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anth
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Fig
hter
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situ
atio
nsw
here
the
Join
tStr
ike
Fig
hter
coul
dno
tsu
rviv
e(C
.K
opp)
.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 124
Blo
ck
40
− A
dv
an
ce
d N
CW
Blo
ck
30
− S
ate
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e C
om
ms
Te
rmin
al
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ap
ab
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ck
20
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all D
iam
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om
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7 H
i R
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pp
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ar
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ck
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(c)
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arl
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ste
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wth
Blo
ck
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Blo
ck
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− IS
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teg
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on
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SA
Arr
ay
En
ha
nc
em
en
to
f A
PG
−77
Ra
da
r S
ys
tem
Fig
ure
48:
The
produ
ctio
nF-2
2Aw
illun
derg
oa
series
ofbl
ock
upgr
ade
enha
ncem
ents
over
com
ing
year
s.T
hest
rike
and
Inte
llige
nce
Sur
veill
ance
Rec
onna
issa
nce
capa
bilit
ies
itpr
ovid
esw
illm
atch
orex
ceed
thos
eof
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Join
tStr
ike
Fig
hter
,w
hile
the
F-2
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illal
way
sbe
mor
esu
rviv
able
inco
mba
tth
anth
esm
alle
rJo
int
Str
ike
Fig
hter
(C.K
opp)
.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 125
US
Air
Fo
rce
Ch
art
F−2
2A
Milit
ary
Th
rus
t P
erf
orm
an
ce
En
ve
lop
eAltitude [−]
Mach
Nu
mb
er
[−]
vs
F−1
5C
Aft
erb
urn
ing
Th
rus
t P
erf
orm
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ce
En
ve
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e
F−1
5C
Aft
erb
urn
ing
En
ve
lop
e
F−2
2A
Dry
Th
rust
En
velo
pe
Fig
ure
49:
The
F-2
2Aw
illpr
ovid
eun
prec
eden
ted
gain
sin
ener
gyper
form
ance
and
super
soni
cper
sist
ence
over
esta
blishe
dfigh
ters
,an
dth
eJo
int
Str
ike
Fig
hter
.T
his
char
tco
mpa
res
the
per
form
ance
enve
lope
ofth
eF-1
5Cat
max
imum
atta
inab
leen
gine
per
form
ance
usin
gaf
terb
urne
r,ag
ains
tth
eper
form
ance
enve
lope
ofth
eF-2
2Aw
itho
utth
eus
eof
afte
rbur
ner.
Aft
erbu
rner
use
incr
ease
sfu
elbu
rnse
vera
lfol
d(U
SAir
For
ce).
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 126
Dia
gn
osti
c C
ap
ab
ilit
y
Co
mp
are
d t
o L
eg
ac
y F
igh
ters
Red
uced
Failu
re R
ate
s
Few
er
Sp
are
sIm
pro
ved
Reliab
ilit
y
F−2
2A
Op
era
tio
na
l a
nd
Su
pp
ort
Co
sts
US
Air
Fo
rce
Ch
art
Sp
are
s, S
up
po
rtE
qu
ipm
en
t
Dep
ot
Main
ten
an
ce
Fu
el, O
il
Air
cre
w,
Main
ten
an
ce a
nd
Su
pp
ort
Pers
on
nel
Ste
alt
h M
ain
ten
an
ce
F−2
2A
F−1
5
Self
Su
ffic
ien
cy
Lo
wer
Dep
loym
en
t R
eq
uir
em
en
tsN
o B
ase L
evel A
TE
Few
er
Mo
dif
icati
on
sN
o S
ch
ed
ule
d D
ep
ot
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fram
e M
ain
ten
an
ce
Few
er
Wo
rkfo
rce S
kills
On
−Air
cra
ft F
au
lt Iso
lati
on
Reduced O&S CostsF−22A
O&S CostsLegacy Fighter
Fig
ure
50:
The
F-2
2Aw
illbe
muc
hch
eaper
toop
erat
eco
mpa
red
toes
tabl
ishe
dfigh
ters
.T
his
char
tsh
ows
aco
mpa
riso
nag
ains
tth
eF-1
5,w
hich
incu
rssim
ilarop
erat
iona
lan
dsu
ppor
tco
sts
toth
eRAAF’s
F/A
-18A
.T
hein
trodu
ctio
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pot
leve
lm
aint
enan
ceac
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ties
and
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ned
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ade
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ram
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G2
&3
plus
Min
orItem
Sub
mission
s)w
illse
eth
eF/A
-18A
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SCos
tsba
lloon
abov
eth
ose
for
the
F-1
5by
som
ede
gree
.(U
SAir
For
ce).
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 127
(Provisional Data)
Thrust, Wet, SL Wing Area Wing Sweep LE Sustained CruiseSpeed (Alt)
Total Fuel Capacity
Ex
tern
al
Inte
rna
l
Inte
rna
lE
xt
Internal Bombload
(Stealth Configuration)8 x GBU−39/B SDB
+ 2
x A
MR
AA
M
+ 2
x A
MR
AA
M +
2 x
AIM
−9X
T.O. 00−105E−9SS−6
JSF CTOL Provisional
External Payload Limit(4 Pylons)
AESA Module Count(APG−77, APG−81)
F−22A vs Joint Strike Fighter − Parametric Comparison
36
,51
5 lb
/ 1
5,8
66
lb
Ex
t (4
x 5
92
US
G)
/ 2
0,6
50
lb
In
t
18
,00
0 lb
In
t /
5,6
72
lb
Ex
t (2
x 4
30
US
G)
/ 2
3,6
72
lb
To
tal
4 x
5 k
lb
2 x
5 k
lb, 2
x 2
.5 k
lb
Figure 51: The F-22A outperforms the Joint Strike Fighter in all cardinal specifications (C. Kopp).
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 128
NG
AP
G−7
7 A
ES
A (
F−2
2A
) N
G A
PG
−81 A
ES
A (
JS
F)
NIIP
N011M
Passiv
e E
SA
(S
u−3
0/3
5)
Rayth
eo
n A
PG
−63(V
)2 A
ES
A (
F−1
5C
) R
ayth
eo
n A
PG
−79 A
ES
A (
F−1
8E
/F)
NG
AP
G−8
0 A
ES
A (
F−1
6E
/F)
NIIP
N001 (
Su
−27S
K)
NG
AP
G−6
8 (
F−1
6C
/50)
Ph
azo
tro
n Z
hu
k (
MiG
−29)
APG−77
APG−81
F−2
2A
− P
ara
me
tric
Co
mp
ari
so
n o
f M
ult
imo
de
Ra
da
rs
20
0
18
0
16
0
14
0
12
0
10
0
80
60
40
20 1
01
0.1
Ta
rge
t R
CS
[S
qu
are
Me
tre
s]
0.0
10
.00
10
.00
01
Co
mp
ara
tiv
e R
an
ge
vs
Ta
rge
t R
CS
(A
W&
ST
, N
IIP
, R
os
vo
oru
zhe
niy
e)
0
Detection/Track Range [NMI]
Ra
da
rS
urv
eilla
nc
eF
oo
tpri
nt
Fig
ure
52:
The
F-2
2Ais
equi
pped
with
the
mos
tpow
erfu
lac
tive
arra
yra
dar
ever
inst
alle
din
afigh
ter
airc
raft.
Thi
sw
illpr
ovid
eit
with
unpr
eced
ente
dra
nge
per
form
ance
,bu
tal
soop
ens
upth
eop
tion
ofus
ing
itas
am
icro
wav
edi
rect
eden
ergy
wea
pon
todi
srup
top
pos
ing
elec
tron
icsy
stem
s.U
Sso
urce
sin
dica
teit
will
also
be
used
toja
mop
pos
ing
X-b
and
rada
rs(C
.K
opp)
.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
5 Annex A - F-22A Data 129
Fig
ure
53:
F-2
2Acu
taway
char
t(G
loba
lSec
urity.or
g).
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 130
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001Industry Proposal
This annex contains a detailed tabular breakdown of the comparative scoring performed between thecurrent Defence NACC plan and the 2001 industry proposal. For convenience, the summary tablein Table 2 is replicated here.
Proposal Metric Australian Industry Solution (2001) Current Defence PlanScore Score
Combat Capability Subtotal +2 -10Supersonic Cruise 0 -2All Aspect Stealth -1 -1Phased Array Radar 0 -1Internal Weapons 2 klb 0 -2Max External Payload +1 0Int Weapons Payload +1 -1Combat Radius (Int Fuel) 0 -2Cost Metrics Subtotal +2 -6Acquisition Cost +1 -2Acquisition Model +1 -2Life Cycle Costs +1 -1Return on Investment 0 -1Risk Metrics Subtotal +3 -13Acquisition Risk 0 -2Cost Risk 0 -2Design Risk 0 -1Strategic Risk 0 -1Strike Capability Gap +1 -2Air Sup Capability Gap +1 -2Air Def Capability Gap +1 -2
Net Assessment +7 -29
Table 5: Summary table of assessment scoring for current defence NACC and interim planningagainst the 2001 Australian Industry solution.
Note on Analysis Method:
The analysis technique and scoring method used is based upon ordinal comparison which is a tech-nique where parameters are ranked by relative magnitude. The scoring is thus based on comparinga large number of parameters against a target, and ranking each score as superior / equal / inferior.This method was chosen over cardinal comparison, in which the relative magnitudes of parametersare each expressed as a number, such as a percentage. For many of the metrics in this annex,this ordinal method in fact favours the Joint Strike Fighter and the F/A-18A HUG, by concealingthe scale of advantage enjoyed by the F-22A and F-111 in comparison. This analysis is thereforeunusually conservative.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 131
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pti
on
in
Tra
nch
e 3
, th
ou
gh
wil
dly
specu
lati
ve a
t th
is s
tag
e.
4
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 132
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 2
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
2S
ub
To
tal
CCOO
MMBB
AATT
CCAA
PPAA
BBII LL
II TTYY
MMEE
TTRR
II CCSS
Su
b T
ota
l-1
0
0F/
A-2
2A
:
Sta
nd
ard
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
No
ne a
nd
never
wil
l h
ave.
-1
0Evo
lved
F-1
11
S :
Ach
ieved
via
en
gin
e u
pg
rad
e(F
11
0 e
x F
-14
D o
r F1
19
)
SSuu
ppeerr ss
oonn
ii cc CC
rr uuii ss
eeCC
aapp
aabb
ii llii tt
yyJS
F :
N
on
e a
nd
never
wil
l h
ave.
-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
Sta
nd
ard
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
N
on
e-1
0Evo
lved
F-1
11
S
: N
ot
req
uir
ed
.P
rim
ari
ly s
tan
d-o
ff m
issi
le c
arr
ier
an
d c
ruis
e m
issi
le i
nte
rcep
tor.
A
ird
om
inan
ce
fig
hte
r an
d
stri
ke
cap
ab
ilit
ies
pro
vid
ed
by F
/A
-22
A
AAll ll AA
sspp
eecctt
WWii dd
eebb
aann
ddSS
tt eeaall tt
hh CC
aapp
aabb
ii llii tt
yy
JSF :
N
on
eO
pti
mis
ed
fo
r ‘F
orw
ard
’ an
d ‘S
ide’ asp
ect
Best
perf
orm
an
ce lim
ited
to
X-B
an
d,
on
ly.
Targ
et
KP
P d
ow
ng
rad
ed
to
LO
fro
mV
LO
– a
n o
rder
of
mag
nit
ud
e c
han
ge.
-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
AN
/A
PG
-77
5F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
N
on
e-1
0Evo
lved
F-1
11
S
: A
N/
AP
G-8
0
or
AN
/A
PG
-81
5 v
ia u
pg
rad
e.
Co
uld
be
do
ne w
ith
fu
nd
ed
NR
E i
n s
up
po
rto
f m
itig
ati
ng
ris
ks
on
JS
F P
rog
ram
PPhh
aasseedd
AArr rr
aayy RR
aadd
aarr
CCaapp
aabb
ii llii tt
yyJS
F :
A
N/
AP
G-8
1 5
0
0F/
A-2
2A
:
No
t re
qu
ired
, d
ue F
-11
1F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
N
on
e-1
0A
ll F
-11
1 (
bu
t R
/F-1
11
) :
Sta
nd
ard
II nntt ee
rr nnaall CC
aarr rr
ii aagg
ee 99
0000
kkgg
WWeeaapp
oonn
ssJS
F :
N
on
e (
CV
vari
an
t o
nly
)-1
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 133
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 3
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
9,0
00
kg
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
6
,80
0 k
gTyp
ical fo
r g
en
eri
c sm
all t
act
ical fi
gh
ter
0
+1
Sta
nd
ard
F-1
11
:
13
,60
0 k
g
MMaaxxii mm
uumm
EExxtt ee
rr nnaall PP
aayyll oo
aadd
(( AAnn
yy WW
eeaapp
oonn
TTyypp
ee))
JSF :
6
,80
0 k
gTyp
ical fo
r g
en
eri
c sm
all t
act
ical fi
gh
ter
0
0F/
A-2
2A
:
2 x
45
0 k
go
r 8
x 1
75
kg
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
N
on
eD
oes
no
t h
ave a
weap
on
s b
ay.
-1
+1
F-1
11
:
2 x
90
0 k
g
Evo
lved
F-1
11
S:
8 x
17
5 k
g
II nntt ee
rr nnaall WW
eeaapp
oonn
ss PP
aayyll oo
aadd
(( SSmm
aarr tt
BBoo
mmbb
ss))
JSF :
2
x 4
50
kg
or
8 x
17
5 k
g0
0F/
A-2
2A
:
70
0+
NM
I-
PLU
S lo
ng
ran
ge a
sym
metr
ic s
ub
son
ic c
ruis
e f
or
stri
ke,
ISR
an
dele
ctro
nic
att
ack
ro
les
as
well a
sfe
rry -
> 1
,00
0 N
MI
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
4
50
NM
I(R
eq
uir
es
exte
rnal fu
el ta
nks
to a
chie
ve
this
ran
ge w
ith
an
y e
ffect
iven
ess
)
-1
0S
tan
dard
F-1
11
:
1,0
00
+ N
MI
Evo
lved
F-1
11
S :
>
1,3
00
N
MI
Asy
mm
etr
ic,
lon
g
ran
ge
cru
ise
cap
ab
ilit
y
for
stri
ke,
ISR
, cr
uis
em
issi
le
inte
rcep
t,
an
d
ele
ctro
nic
att
ack
ro
les
as
well
as
ferr
y.
CCoomm
bbaatt
RRaadd
ii uuss
oonn
IInn
tt eerr nn
aall FFuu
eell
SSuu
ii tteedd
ttoo AA
uusstt rr
aall iiaann
IIssll aa
nndd
CCoo
nntt ii
nneenn
tt SS
tt aatt uu
ss
JSF :
6
50
NM
I
No
te:
C
om
bat
rad
ius
yet
to
be
dem
on
stra
ted
in
cle
an
co
nfi
gu
rati
on
an
dca
rryin
g e
xte
rnal
sto
res.
Exp
ect
th
is w
ill
occ
ur
som
e t
ime a
fter
20
06
, m
ost
lik
ely
in 2
00
8 t
est
pro
gra
m.
-1
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 134
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 4
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
2S
ub
To
tal
CCOO
SSTT MM
EETTRR
II CCSS
Su
b T
ota
l-6
+1
F/
A-2
2A
: (i
n ‘th
en
year’
do
llars
)5
0+
5 S
yst
em
s $
US
6,8
00
.0 m
(Su
bje
ct t
o n
eg
oti
ati
on
on
mo
del -
po
ten
tial fo
r si
gn
ific
an
t re
du
ctio
n)
Est
imate
in
Au
stra
lian
Do
llars
@ 2
01
0 e
xch
an
ge
$A
9,8
55
.3 m
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
$
A3
,00
0+
mP
LU
S M
ino
r It
em
Su
bm
issi
on
(MIS
) P
roje
ct c
ost
s,Est
imate
(M
IS)
$A
10
0m
to $
A2
00
mTh
ese
fig
ure
s are
wh
at
Defe
nce
call
s‘c
ash
do
llars
’ w
hic
h w
ou
ld a
pp
ear
to b
e‘t
hen
year’
do
llars
.
-1
0Evo
lved
F-1
11
S:
(in
20
04
do
llars
)U
pg
rad
es
$A
1,7
60
.5 m
10
x A
ttri
tio
n A
cft
$A
1
33
.3 m
(PLU
S s
pare
s eg
. w
ing
s, e
tc.)
To
tal :
$A
1,8
93
.8 m
VVaall uu
ee ff
oorr
MMoo
nneeyy//CC
oosstt
EEff ff
eecctt ii
vvee
AAccqq
uuii ss
ii ttii oo
nn CC
oosstt
JSF :
$
A1
5,0
00
m+
NA
CC
Bu
dg
et
- (A
ssu
med
‘th
en
year’
do
llars
) O
ften
Sta
ted
$U
S4
5m
per
air
craft
is
Avg
Un
it R
ecu
rrin
g F
lyaw
ay
Co
st in
20
02
do
llars
no
t P
rice
in
20
12
+
-1
+1
F/
A-2
2A
: F
MS
pu
rch
ase
or
Lease
/B
uy o
r co
mb
inati
on
of
bo
th,
wit
h s
trate
gic
off
sets
availab
le.
Neg
oti
ati
on
Win
Th
em
es:
- S
trate
gic
Im
po
rtan
ce t
o U
S-
Su
pp
ort
for
US
AF b
uy/
need
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
larg
e b
lock
up
gra
des
an
dm
ult
iple
M
ino
r It
em
S
ub
mis
sio
n
(MIS
)P
roje
cts.
-1
0F-1
11
:
incr
em
en
tal
up
gra
des
toexis
tin
g
fleet,
acq
uir
e
att
riti
on
rese
rve f
rom
AM
AR
C a
t le
ss t
han
10
% o
f b
oo
k valu
e,
as
has
been
ach
ieved
pre
vio
usl
y.
VVaall uu
ee ff
oorr
MMoo
nneeyy //
CCoo
sstt
EEff ff
eecctt ii
vvee
AAccqq
uuii ss
ii ttii oo
nn MM
oodd
eell
JSF :
Tie
r 3
part
ner
pu
rch
ase
PLU
S l
arg
eLo
ss/
Lead
an
d
hig
h
go
vern
men
to
verh
ead
In
du
stry
In
vo
lvem
en
t P
rog
ram
wit
h n
o g
uara
nte
es.
-1
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 135
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 5
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
Inte
gra
ted
avio
nic
s,
4th
gen
era
tio
n e
ng
ine.
Req
uir
em
en
t fo
r life
cycl
e c
ost
s to
be
less
th
an
60
% t
ho
se o
f F-1
5.
Dem
on
stra
ted
in
In
itia
l O
pera
tio
nal
Test
an
d E
valu
ati
on
to
be o
n t
arg
et.
Au
stra
lia
bein
g
mo
re
than
2
0%
o
fw
orl
d f
leet
pro
vid
es
gre
at
op
po
rtu
nit
y,
com
bin
ed
wit
h u
sin
g a
ttri
tio
n a
ircr
aft
,fo
r A
ust
ralian
In
du
stry
in
vo
lvem
en
t in
life
cy
cle
up
gra
des.
Als
o,
stro
ng
er
bu
yin
g a
nd
neg
oti
ati
on
po
siti
on
.
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G:
Leg
acy
fed
era
ted
avio
nic
s;air
craft
un
derg
oin
g d
eep
er
main
ten
an
cefo
r th
e
firs
t ti
me
in
con
jun
ctio
n
wit
hla
rge
suit
e
of
mo
dif
icati
on
an
dre
furb
ish
men
t p
roje
cts
to
be
do
ne
inp
ara
llel.
Fig
ure
s d
eri
ved
fro
m a
naly
sis
of
Defe
nce
A
nn
ual
Rep
ort
s 1
99
9
to
04
,D
efe
nce
C
ap
ab
ilit
y
Pla
n
to
20
15
, an
dp
revio
us
6 .
PR
ES
EN
T V
ALU
E $
’s in
20
04
:
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G e
t al
Cap
ital C
ost
s (D
CP
, M
IS)
>$
A2
,24
1.7
mF/
A-1
8A
HU
G (
to 2
01
5 7
)To
tal O
pera
tin
g C
ost
s>
$A
3,0
02
.7 m
To
tal :
>$
A5
,24
4.4
m
No
te :
Co
sts
to 2
01
54 v
s 2
02
0 f
or
F-1
11
S
-1
+1
F-1
11
: M
ost
ly i
nte
gra
ted
avio
nic
s, 4
th
gen
era
tio
n
en
gin
e
via
u
pg
rad
es.
Fig
ure
s d
eri
ved
fro
m R
AA
F A
ir C
om
bat
Cap
ab
ilit
y
Pap
er
to
Parl
iam
en
t.
8
PR
ES
EN
T V
ALU
E $
’s in
20
04
:
F-1
11
to
20
20
(R
AA
F)
To
tal C
ost
of
Ow
ners
hip
$A
2,2
24
.5 m
Evo
lved
F-1
11
S (
Ind
ust
ry)
To
tal C
ost
of
Up
gra
des
$A
1,0
90
.5 m
To
tal :
$A
3,3
15
.0 m
VVaall uu
ee ff
oorr
MMoo
nneeyy//CC
oosstt
EEff ff
eecctt ii
vvee LL
ii ffee CC
yyccll ee
CCoosstt ss
(( NNoott ee
:: PP
rr eess ee
nntt
VVaall uu
ee AA
nnaall yy
ss iiss
mmeett hh
ooddss
uuss ee
dd tt
oo pp
rr oovvii dd
ee vv
aall ii dd
bbaass ii
ss ff oo
rr cc oo
mmppaarr iiss oo
nn..
SSaamm
eeeess cc
aall aa
tt iioonn aa
nndd dd
ii sscc oo
uunntt
ff aacc tt
oorr ss
uuss ee
dd ff
oorr
bboott hh
mmooddeell ss
,, ww
hheerr ee
aappppll ii cc
aabbll ee
.. ))JS
F:
In
teg
rate
d a
vio
nic
s, 4
th g
en
era
tio
nen
gin
e,
CA
IV
an
d
inte
rnati
on
al
part
neri
ng
.
To
be d
em
on
stra
ted
in
In
itia
l O
pera
tio
nal
Test
an
d E
valu
ati
on
pre
sen
tly p
roje
cted
to o
ccu
r ci
rca 2
01
2.
Pre
sum
ed
will m
eet
an
d a
chie
ve m
etr
ic.
0
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 136
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 6
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
Exp
ect
ed
li
fe
of
40
+years
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
Pla
nn
ed
to
be c
om
ple
ted
som
eti
me
aft
er
20
10
.
Fu
rth
er
up
gra
des/
reb
uild
s w
ou
ld b
e r
eq
uir
ed
to
go
beyo
nd
20
15
.
-1
0F-1
11
:
20
05
-20
25
+(C
ou
ld
be
exte
nd
ed
, o
r re
pla
ced
wit
h
FB
-22
o
r la
ter
bu
ild
JS
F
or
oth
er
cap
ab
ilit
y).
MMii nn
ii mmuu
mm oo
ff11
00 YY
eeaarr
RReett uu
rr nn oo
nnII nn
vveesstt mm
eenn
tt PP
eerr ii
oodd
AAff tt
eerr
AAccqq
uuii ss
ii ttii oo
nn//
UUpp
ggrr aa
ddee
JSF :
Exp
ect
ed
lif
e o
f 3
0+
years
su
bje
ctto
ap
pro
val
for
full
rate
p
rod
uct
ion
som
eti
me a
fter
20
12
.
0
3S
ub
To
tal
RRII SS
KK MM
EETT
RRII CC
SSS
ub
To
tal
-13
0F/
A-2
2A
:
LO
WF/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
LO
W i
n A
vio
nic
s; H
IGH
in
Cen
tre
Barr
el
Rep
lace
men
t (C
BR
);o
vera
ll H
IGH
in
sch
ed
ule
sin
ce m
ult
iple
ele
men
t p
roje
ct
wit
h
clo
sein
terd
ep
en
den
cies
wh
ich
, in
tu
rn,
is p
art
of
a 5
pro
ject
CA
PS
TO
NE P
rog
ram
wh
ich
has
yet
to b
e m
an
ag
ed
as
a C
AP
STO
NE.
HIG
H
risk
exp
osu
re
on
air
craft
availab
ilit
y.
-1
0Evo
lved
F-1
11
S :
LO
WD
ue
to
exte
nsi
ve
rese
arc
h,
kn
ow
led
ge
an
d
exp
eri
en
ce
on
air
craft
no
w r
esi
den
t in
In
du
stry
,D
STO
an
d,
to
less
er
exte
nt,
th
eR
AA
F
(latt
er
du
e
to
dow
nsi
zin
gan
d d
esk
illi
ng
).
LLoo
ww AA
ccqq
uuii ss
ii ttii oo
nn RR
ii sskkss
JSF :
H
IGH
Po
ten
tial
for
sig
nif
ican
t vari
ati
on
s in
cap
ab
ilit
y,
cost
an
d
sch
ed
ule
ti
meli
nes
wit
h
hig
h
likelih
oo
d
of
curr
en
t ri
sks
mate
riali
sin
g
an
d
furt
her
risk
s ari
sin
geg
. so
ftw
are
pro
ble
ms,
part
ners
leavin
gp
rog
ram
, C
on
gre
ssio
nal in
terc
ess
ion
-1
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 137
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 7
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
LO
WS
ince
matu
re,
inp
rod
uct
ion
desi
gn
wit
h
bu
y
at
en
d
of
curr
en
tp
rod
uct
ion
(l
ow
co
st
en
d
wh
en
NR
E
reco
very
an
d
recu
rrin
gen
gin
eeri
ng
(R
E)
cost
s are
at
low
est
levels
).
Incr
ease
of
US
AF
bu
y t
o 3
00
+ u
nit
s
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
H
IGH
Hig
h p
rob
ab
ilit
y o
f ad
dit
ion
al
stru
ctu
ral
refu
rbis
hin
g
cost
s,
mo
re
exte
nsi
ve
rect
ific
ati
on
s ari
sin
g
fro
m
firs
t ti
me
deep
er
main
ten
an
ce,
an
d
avio
nic
s/w
eap
on
s u
pg
rad
es
as
furt
her
dela
ys
develo
pm
en
t ch
allen
ges
ari
se
in
JSF
pro
gra
m
-1
0F-1
11
:
LO
W
LLoo
ww CC
oosstt
RRii ss
kkss
JSF :
Very
HIG
H –
un
cert
ain
ties
in t
ota
ln
um
bers
will p
ers
ist
un
til at
least
20
15
-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
Nil
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
M
ED
IUM
LO
W0
0F-1
11
:
LO
WIn
crem
en
tal
up
gra
des
of
leg
acy
avio
nic
s (c
ock
pit
, ra
dar)
an
dle
gacy
syst
em
s (P
ave T
ack
) P
LU
San
en
gin
e u
pg
rad
e i
n t
he 2
01
0 t
o2
02
0 t
ime w
ind
ow
.
LLoo
ww DD
eessii gg
nn RR
ii sskk
JSF :
H
IGH
Rem
ain
s in
develo
pm
en
t w
ith
dif
ficu
ltie
sin
p
erf
orm
an
ce,
weig
ht
an
d
coo
lin
gca
paci
ty
PLU
S
sig
nif
ican
t so
ftw
are
an
dsy
stem
in
teg
rati
on
ch
allen
ges.
-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
LO
WN
o c
om
para
ble
typ
e e
xis
tsF/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
H
IGH
Ou
tcla
ssed
b
y
Su
kh
oi
Su
-27
/3
0/3
5fi
gh
ters
in
aero
dyn
am
ic
an
d
rad
ar
perf
orm
an
ce
-1
0F-1
11
:
LO
WP
roven
Tie
r 1
str
ike p
latf
orm
LLoo
ww SS
tt rraatt ee
ggii cc
RRii ss
kkss
JSF :
HIG
H –
Tie
r 2
air
craft
ou
tcla
ssed
by
larg
er
Tie
r 1
S
ukh
oi
Su
-27
/3
0/3
5fi
gh
ters
in
aero
dyn
am
ic p
erf
orm
an
ce
-1
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 138
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 8
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
0F/
A-2
2A
:
No
ne
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
S
ign
ific
an
t G
ap
Red
uct
ion
of
pre
cisi
on
mu
nit
ion
sd
elivery
cap
ab
ilit
y b
y u
p t
o 6
2.5
%.
Refe
r Fig
ure
3 o
f P
arl
iam
en
tary
Su
bm
issi
on
, “A
ir C
om
bat
Cap
ab
ilit
y”,
by
A G
Ho
ust
on
, 0
4 J
un
e 2
00
4.
Defe
nce
deci
sio
n t
o e
xcl
ud
e F
-11
1 f
rom
Air
54
18
,h
as
mad
e g
ap
deep
er
an
d w
ider.
-1
+1
F-1
11
:
Alr
ead
y
has
MIL
-17
60
smart
w
eap
on
s b
us
makin
gin
teg
rati
on
o
f A
ir
54
18
FO
SO
Wan
d JD
AM
easy
(a
nd
ch
eap
). Is
no
t d
ep
en
den
t o
n
refu
ellin
gta
nkers
to
p
rovid
e
lon
g
ran
ge
stri
ke c
ap
ab
ilit
y t
o 1
,00
0 N
MI.
NNoo
SStt rr
ii kkee CC
aapp
aabb
ii llii tt
yy GG
aapp
JSF :
O
ng
oin
g G
ap
Up
to
37
.5%
red
uct
ion
com
pare
d w
ith
Defe
nce
20
00
Wh
ite P
ap
er
gu
idan
ce.
-1
+1
F/
A-2
2A
:
No
ne
Su
peri
or
in a
ll r
esp
ect
s to
all
op
po
sin
g a
ircr
aft
9 o
ut
to 2
02
5 a
nd
beyo
nd
.
F/
A-1
8A
H
UG
:
infe
rio
r sp
eed
, ag
ilit
y,
ran
ge
vs
Su
kh
oi
Su
-27
/3
0/
35
;si
gn
ific
an
t d
ep
en
den
cy
on
A
EW
&C
an
dta
nkers
to
pro
vid
e u
sefu
l c
ap
ab
ilit
y
-1
0F-1
11
:R
eq
uir
em
en
t m
et
by F
/A
-22
A a
ird
om
inan
ce f
igh
ter
cap
ab
ilit
ies
NNoo
AAii rr
SSuu
ppeerr ii
oorr ii
tt yy GG
aapp
JSF :
Infe
rio
r sp
eed
, ag
ilit
y,
an
d r
an
ge w
hen
com
pare
d a
gain
st S
ukh
oi S
u-2
7/3
0/
35
fam
ily o
f air
craft
, p
art
icu
larl
y p
ost
20
10
con
fig
ura
tio
ns;
defi
nit
ely
po
st 2
01
5evo
lved
gro
wth
vari
an
ts
-1
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 139
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 9
of 1
0
S c o r e
AU
STR
ALIA
N I
ND
US
TR
Y S
OLU
TIO
N
(PR
OP
OS
ED
20
01
)C
AP
AB
ILIT
Y,
CO
ST,
&
CU
RR
EN
T D
EFEN
CE P
LA
NS
S c o r e+
1 02
00
8 O
nw
ard
sP
RO
JEC
T R
ISK
20
10
TO
20
18
+1 0
-1 12
METR
ICS
20
18
On
ward
s-1
+1
F/
A-2
2A
:
No
ne
“Th
e
F/
A-2
2
will
be
the
mo
sto
uts
tan
din
g
air
craft
ever
bu
ilt.
Every
fig
hte
r p
ilo
t in
th
e A
ir F
orc
ew
ou
ld d
earl
y lo
ve t
o f
ly it.
”A
ir C
hie
f M
ars
hall A
ng
us
Ho
ust
on
,A
ug
ust
20
04
F/
A-1
8A
HU
G :
C
on
sid
era
ble
Gap
Un
suit
ed
fo
r b
om
ber
an
d c
ruis
e m
issi
led
efe
nce
du
e t
o lim
ited
en
du
ran
ce,
lim
ited
mis
sile
paylo
ad
an
d lim
ited
sup
ers
on
ic s
peed
-1
0F-1
11
:
Evo
lved
F-1
11
ca
pab
ilit
ysu
itab
le
for
bo
mb
er
inte
rcep
t,cr
uis
e
mis
sile
d
efe
nce
an
dIS
R/Ele
ctro
nic
A
ttack
in
ad
dit
ion
to e
stab
lish
ed
str
ike r
ole
s d
ue t
oexce
llen
t en
du
ran
ce,
sup
eri
or
paylo
ad
, h
igh
sp
eed
an
d a
dvan
ced
rad
ar
cap
ab
ilit
y10.
NNoo
AAii rr
DDeeff ee
nnccee GG
aapp
JSF:
un
suit
ed
fo
r b
om
ber
an
d
cru
ise
mis
sile
d
efe
nce
d
ue
to
lim
ited
en
du
ran
ce,
lim
ited
m
issi
le
paylo
ad
an
dlim
ited
su
pers
on
ic
speed
.
Th
eo
pera
tio
nal
JSF
is
inte
nd
ed
to
b
e
ab
att
lefi
eld
str
ike i
nte
rdic
tio
n /
clo
se a
irsu
pp
ort
air
craft
wit
h s
om
e s
elf
defe
nce
cap
ab
ilit
ies11
.
-1
TO
TA
L N
UM
BER
OF M
ETR
ICS
= E
IGH
TEEN
(1
8)
A s
core
of
zero
(0
) m
ean
s th
e a
ir c
om
bat
cap
ab
ilit
y s
yst
em
meets
or
ach
ieves
all t
he d
efi
ned
metr
ics.
A n
eg
ati
ve s
core
mean
s th
e a
ir c
om
bat
cap
ab
ilit
y s
yst
em
fail
s to
meet
on
e o
r m
ore
of
the m
etr
ics.
A p
osi
tive s
core
mean
s th
e c
ap
ab
ilit
y s
yst
em
sig
nif
ican
tly e
xce
ed
s th
e r
eq
uir
em
en
ts o
f o
ne o
r m
ore
of
the m
etr
ics.
INFER
IOR
OU
TC
OM
E-:
20
10
TO
20
18
-16
+7
20
08
On
ward
s
SU
PER
IOR
OU
TC
OM
ENN
EETTTT AA
SSSS
EESS
SSMM
EENN
TTSS
CCOO
RREE TT
OOTTAA
LLSS
INFER
IOR
OU
TC
OM
E :
20
18
On
ward
s-1
3
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
6 Annex B - Comparison of Current NACC Plan vs 2001 Industry Proposal 140
Cop
yrig
ht ©
Air
Pow
er A
ustra
lia a
nd A
ssoc
iate
s, Se
ptem
ber 2
005
-See
End
Not
e - Ψ
.Pa
ge 1
0 of
10
END
NO
TES
:
1
Allo
catio
n of
scor
es b
ased
on
a Pa
ram
etric
Ana
lysi
s Sco
ring
Syst
em w
hich
use
s –1,
0 a
nd +
1 as
a w
ay o
f est
ablis
hing
an
obje
ctiv
e m
eans
of c
ompa
rison
. D
efen
ce sh
ould
be in
vite
d to
subm
it its
ow
n sc
ores
, usi
ng th
is sy
stem
in k
eepi
ng w
ith th
e fo
llow
ing
guid
ance
:+1
Subj
ect m
odel
sign
ifica
ntly
sign
ifica
ntly
exc
eeds
the
requ
irem
ent b
y so
me
degr
ee o
r em
bodi
es m
ore
than
the
stat
ed m
etric
; 0
Subj
ect m
odel
mee
ts th
e st
ated
met
ric o
r the
met
ric is
not
app
licab
le to
that
mod
el; a
nd,
–1Su
bjec
t mod
el d
oes n
ot a
chie
ve o
r em
body
the
stat
ed m
etric
.2
Res
pons
e to
Def
ence
Req
uest
for P
ropo
sal –
“Pr
ojec
t Air
6000
For
ce M
ix O
ptio
n M
arke
t Sur
vey”
, DTC
Air
6000
Tec
hnol
ogy
Gro
up S
ubm
issi
on o
f 25
Janu
ary
2002
and
supp
ortin
g pr
oprie
tary
Indu
stry
Pro
posa
ls su
bmitt
ed in
acc
orda
nce
with
the
Def
ence
Cap
abili
ty S
yste
ms L
ife C
ycle
Man
agem
ent G
uide
, Dec
embe
r 200
1, a
fter m
eetin
gw
ith A
ir600
0 Pr
ojec
t Off
ice
pers
onne
l who
soug
ht fu
rther
, det
aile
d in
form
atio
n to
supp
ort t
heir
reco
mm
enda
tion
of th
e Ev
olve
d F-
111
Opt
ion
for S
tage
3 o
f Air
6000
.3
AM
AR
C –
Aer
ospa
ce M
aint
enan
ce a
nd R
e-ge
nera
tion
Cen
ter a
t Dav
is-M
onth
an A
FB, T
ucso
n, A
rizon
a, U
SA. O
ver 2
00 F
-111
s rem
ain
mot
hbal
led
at A
MA
RC
.4
Sinc
e th
e ex
perts
in c
ompu
ter s
cien
ce (i
n pa
rticu
lar,
in th
e ar
tific
ial i
ntel
ligen
ce d
omai
n) c
an’t
agre
e on
whe
n th
e ca
pabi
lity
for s
afe
and
effe
ctiv
e au
tono
mou
s ope
ratio
n of
high
risk
, let
hal a
sset
s in
dem
andi
ng, h
ostil
e en
viro
nmen
ts (s
uch
as e
xper
ienc
ed in
air
com
bat)
is g
oing
to b
e po
ssib
le, w
ith p
redi
ctio
ns ra
ngin
g fr
om 1
5 ye
ars t
o 50
yea
rstim
e to
nev
er, i
t wou
ld b
e fa
ncifu
l and
was
tefu
l let
alo
ne n
aïve
for t
he n
on e
xper
t to
com
mit
thei
r int
egrit
y an
d pu
blic
reso
urce
s to
a da
te in
tim
e.5
The
F/A
-22A
’s A
PG-7
7 ra
dar a
nd th
e JS
F’s A
PG-8
1 ra
dar s
hare
tran
smit-
rece
ive
mod
ule
tech
nolo
gy, c
ompu
ter p
roce
ssin
g te
chno
logy
, pac
kagi
ng te
chno
logy
, and
mul
timod
e ca
pabi
litie
s, ho
wev
er, t
he F
/A-2
2A’s
APG
-77
is m
uch
mor
e po
wer
ful,
prov
idin
g tw
ice
the
dete
ctio
n fo
otpr
int o
f the
JSF’
s APG
-81
rada
r. W
hile
the
F/A
-22A
’sA
PG-7
7 ra
dar p
rovi
des e
xcel
lent
bom
bing
cap
abili
ty, i
t rem
ains
the
mos
t cap
able
air
to a
ir ra
dar e
ver b
uilt.
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vers
ely,
whi
le th
e JS
F’s A
PG-8
1 ra
dar p
rovi
des
resp
ecta
ble
air t
o ai
r rad
ar c
over
age
capa
bilit
y, it
is b
eing
opt
imis
ed a
s a b
ombe
r rad
ar to
mee
t the
Join
t Ope
ratio
nal R
equi
rem
ents
Doc
umen
t (JO
RD
) and
CA
IV.
6 D
efen
ce A
nnua
l Rep
orts
199
9 to
200
4 in
clus
ive,
stat
utor
y fin
anci
als;
Def
ence
Cap
abili
ty P
lan
2001
-10
and
subs
eque
nt in
clud
ing
anal
ysis
of a
ctiv
ities
in c
urre
nt d
raft;
RA
AF
Air
Com
bat C
apab
ility
Pap
er –
A H
oust
on, 0
4 Ju
ne 2
004;
ASP
I Stra
tegi
c In
sigh
t – ‘I
s the
JSF
good
eno
ugh’
– A
Hou
ston,
Aug
ust 2
004;
A
ir Po
wer
Aus
tralia
-A
FA
REW
ELL
TO A
RM
S - R
EVIS
ITED
, P A
Goo
n., J
anua
ry 2
005;
AD
A D
efen
der -
Win
ter 2
005
– ‘A
ffor
dabi
lity
and
the
new
air
com
bat c
apab
ility
’, P
A G
oon.
7 A
naly
sis a
nd p
rese
nt v
alue
(200
4) c
alcu
latio
ns o
f tot
al o
pera
ting
expe
nses
for t
he F
/A-1
8A H
UG
onl
y ta
ken
out t
o 20
15 si
nce
fleet
num
bers
star
t to
drop
off
due
to fa
tigue
and
mai
nten
ance
rela
ted
lifin
g is
sues
shor
tly a
fter 2
014
(on
the
basi
s of h
isto
rical
flyi
ng ra
te a
nd fa
tigue
dam
age
accr
ual r
ates
whi
ch, i
f red
uced
, will
eff
ect p
repa
redn
ess)
.8
RA
AF
Air
Com
bat C
apab
ility
Pap
er –
Air
Forc
e Su
bmis
sion
to Jo
int S
tand
ing
Com
mitt
ee o
n Fo
reig
n A
ffai
rs, D
efen
ce a
nd T
rade
dat
ed 0
4 Ju
ne 2
004.
Ref
er F
igur
e 2
– F-
111
Cos
t of O
wne
rshi
p (C
ash)
and
Tab
le 1
– T
en Y
ear C
ost o
f Ret
aini
ng F
-111
in S
ervi
ce.
Cas
h flo
w p
rofil
e fig
ures
are
dis
coun
ted
to P
rese
nt V
alue
(200
4) d
olla
rs u
sing
the
sam
e di
scou
nt fa
ctor
s (ha
ving
app
lied
esca
latio
n fa
ctor
s, w
here
app
ropr
iate
) in
the
anal
ysis
and
com
paris
on o
f bot
h m
odel
s.9
The
desi
gn a
ims o
f the
orig
inal
F-2
2A, d
efin
ed in
the
1980
s, pr
ovid
ed c
apab
ilitie
s to
defe
at o
ppos
ing
next
gen
erat
ion
fight
ers a
nd b
ombe
rs.
By
the
early
199
0s th
ese
aim
sex
pand
ed to
incl
ude
high
surv
ivab
le st
rike
capa
bilit
ies,
resu
lting
in re
desi
gnat
ion
to th
e F/
A-2
2A.
Ove
r the
last
five
yea
rs th
ese
capa
bilit
ies h
ave
been
furth
er e
xpan
ded
toin
clud
e in
telli
genc
e, su
rvei
llanc
e an
d re
conn
aiss
ance
in h
igh
thre
at si
tuat
ions
– th
e F/
A-2
2A w
ill th
us a
bsor
b m
uch
of th
e ro
le p
erfo
rmed
unt
il th
e 19
90s b
y th
e SR
-71A
.10
Th
e ea
rlies
t des
ign
aim
s of t
he o
rigin
al F
-111
pro
gram
, def
ined
dur
ing
the
early
196
0s, w
ere
to p
rovi
de a
bom
ber f
or th
e U
S A
ir Fo
rce
and
an in
terc
epto
r for
the
US
Nav
y,to
pro
tect
nav
al fo
rces
from
Sov
iet b
ombe
rs a
nd c
ruis
e m
issi
les.
As t
he F
-111
pro
ved
too
larg
e fo
r airc
raft
carr
ier d
eplo
ymen
t, on
ly th
e bo
mbe
r var
iant
s wer
e bu
ilt.
The
F-11
1 th
us re
tain
s the
end
uran
ce, p
aylo
ad a
nd h
igh
spee
d re
quire
d to
pro
vide
def
ence
aga
inst
bom
bers
and
cru
ise
mis
sile
s. T
he E
volv
ed F
-111
S pr
opos
al e
xplo
its th
isin
here
nt c
apab
ility
to e
xpan
d th
e ut
ility
of t
he F
-111
. R
efer
Par
liam
enta
ry S
ubm
issi
on e
ntitl
ed ‘E
volv
ing
Forc
e’, C
Kop
p an
d A
Cob
b, O
ctob
er 2
003
and
‘Rat
iona
le’.
11
Whi
le th
e JS
F is
ofte
n lo
osel
y de
scrib
ed a
s ‘m
ulti-
role
’, its
per
form
ance
and
avi
onic
s cap
abili
ties a
re m
ostly
wei
ghte
d to
pro
vide
bat
tlefie
ld su
ppor
t cap
abili
ties f
or g
roun
dtro
ops r
athe
r tha
n ca
pabi
litie
s to
defe
at o
ppos
ing
air s
uper
iorit
y fig
hter
s, op
posi
ng b
ombe
rs a
nd p
rovi
de lo
ng ra
nge
strik
e. I
n U
S se
rvic
e, th
e JS
F is
pla
nned
to re
plac
e th
eA
V-8
B H
arrie
r and
A-1
0 Th
unde
rbol
t II,
as w
ell a
s F-1
6s a
nd e
arly
mod
el F
/A-1
8s, a
ll ai
rcra
ft ty
pes u
sed
excl
usiv
ely
or m
ostly
for s
uppo
rting
gro
und
troop
s sin
ce 1
995.
ΨC
opyr
ight
© A
ir Po
wer
Aus
tralia
and
Ass
ocia
tes,
Sept
embe
r 200
5 -
Per
mis
sion
is g
rant
ed fo
r the
use
and
dis
tribu
tion
of th
ese
wor
ks, i
n pa
rticu
lar a
nd sp
ecifi
cally
, to
the
Parli
amen
t of A
ustra
lia a
nd th
e D
epar
tmen
t of D
efen
ce, p
rovi
ded
that
full
attri
butio
n fo
r the
se w
orks
is st
ated
and
incl
uded
in su
ch u
se, t
hat t
he ri
ghts
of t
he o
wne
rs a
repr
otec
ted
and
that
any
resu
lts, o
utco
mes
, gai
ns a
nd/o
r im
prov
emen
ts to
the
stat
us q
uo a
t the
tim
e th
ese
wor
ks w
ere
prod
uced
that
dire
ctly
or i
ndire
ctly
aris
e fr
om th
epr
ovis
ion
of th
ese
wor
ks a
re a
ttrib
uted
in th
eir o
rigin
s to
the
auth
ors a
nd o
wne
rs o
f the
se w
orks
.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
7 Annex C - Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (Since May 1998) 141
7 Annex C - Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (SinceMay 1998)
1. The impact of acquisitions of Su-27SK by China and Su-30MKI by India was accurately pre-dicted. An unpredicted development was the acquisition of the Su-30MKM series by Malaysia.
2. Acquisitions of Su-30MKK by China were accurately predicted. An unpredicted developmentwas the development and acquisition of the Su-30MK2 by the PLA Navy air arm.
3. Acquisitions of A-50 derivative AEW&C aircraft by China and India were accurately predicted.Unpredicted developments were the current intent by Malaysia to acquire AEW&C aircraft,US intervention to block Israel’s sale of the A-50I to China, and US approval of the sale ofthe A-50I to India.
4. Acquisitions of Il-78 Midas derivative tanker aircraft by China and India were accurately pre-dicted. An unpredicted development was the deployment of several squadrons of indigenousChinese H-6U/DU tanker aircraft.
5. Acquisitions of further S-300 variant long range Surface-to-Air Missile systems in the widerregion were predicted. Indonesia’s interest in the S-300PMU series was not predicted.
6. Sukhoi Su-27/30 radar signature reduction measures were accurately predicted.
7. Sukhoi Su-30 N-011M BARS phased array radar capabilities were understated. The Su-27NIIP Pero phased array block upgrade to the NIIP N-001 radar was not predicted.
8. The Su-27SKU digital glass cockpit upgrade was correctly predicted.
9. The regional proliferation of ‘counter-AWACS’ variants of the Kh-31R missile was correctlypredicted.
10. The regional proliferation of ‘counter-AWACS’ variants of the KS-172 missile was correctlypredicted. India’s intent for co-production of the KS-172 was not predicted.
11. The susceptibility of the Wedgetail AEW&C to long range ‘counter-AWACS’ missiles wasaccurately predicted.
12. The emergence of anti-radiation variants of the Russian R-77 (AA-12) BVR missile was cor-rectly predicted, but the development of heat-seeking variants was not predicted.
13. The emergence of the improved OLS-30 Infra Red Search Track set on the Su-30MK wascorrectly predicted.
14. The emergence of third generation optical seeker technology for the Russian R-73/74 familyof WVR missiles was not predicted.
15. Strike capability growth in the F-22A was correctly predicted, but did not predict the extentof this growth, or planning to make all intended 380 F-22A fully strike capable.
16. The emergence of the FB-22A strike aircraft was not predicted.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
7 Annex C - Analysis Predictions Provided to Defence (Since May 1998) 142
17. The limitations in air combat capability in the Joint Strike Fighter were accurately predicted,as were the underlying reasons for this being so. The emergence of the ‘Export Joint StrikeFighter’ variant with reduced stealth was not predicted.
18. The potential for the F-111 to be operated well beyond 2020 was not predicted. This was laterdetermined as one of the results of the Sole Operator Program and is one of the cornerstonesof the subsequent ‘Evolved F-111’ proposals.
19. The potential for the B-1B and F-111 to be retrofitted with supersonic cruise engines wasnot predicted. This was later presented in the ‘Evolved F-111’ proposal entitled ‘Super Cruiseand the F-111’ and more recently for the B-1B in the Boeing response to the USAF RFI forInterim Long Range Strike Capabilities.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
8 Annex D - Adverse Effects of Early F-111 Retirement 143
8 Annex D - Adverse Effects of Early F-111 Retirement
Figure 54: RAAF F-111C departing Amberley for Red Flag exercise in the US, January, 2006(Defence PR).
1. Adverse Capability Effects.
(a) A ≈50% reduction in aggregate RAAF striking power available.
(b) Loss of primary long range land strike capability.
(c) Loss of primary long range maritime strike capability.
(d) Loss of high payload battlefield strike capability (Each F-111 ≈ 12
B-52H heavy bombercapability).
(e) Loss of unrefuelled persistent battlefield strike capability.
(f) Loss of unrefuelled persistent Combat Air Patrol capability for dealing with terroristhijackings.
(g) Loss of potential unrefuelled persistent Combat Air Patrol capability for cruise missileinterception.
(h) Significant increase in F/A-18A fatigue life consumption should regional contingencyarise.
(i) Significant increase in tanker fatigue life consumption should regional contingency arise.
(j) Loss of primary airborne systems and weapons integration engineering capability at Am-berley WSBU.
(k) Loss of primary engineering capability to execute ‘ageing aircraft program’ techniques onRAAF platforms.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
8 Annex D - Adverse Effects of Early F-111 Retirement 144
2. Adverse Strategic Effects.
(a) As regional Sukhoi Su-27/30 numbers and proficiency increase, a ‘strategic inversion’ ofthe deterrence relationship will arise - regional nations could challenge Australian regionalintervention.
(b) Loss of primary strategic deterrence tool for dealing with potentially hostile future regimesacross wider region.
(c) In scenario with high risk of terrorist hijackings, F/A-18 and B-707 fleet too small toprotect all capitals without F-111 support.
(d) Likely perception in US strategic circles that Australia is emulating the behaviour of EUNATO nations which downsized critical defence capabilities and shifted that burden onto the US force structure.
(e) Loss of single highest value combat contribution to US-led coalition air campaigns.
(f) Loss of capability to rapidly integrate and test new weapons on RAAF aircraft - cfUK in Falklands and US in Afghanistan rapidly adding new weapon types in urgentcontingencies.
3. Adverse Industrial Base Effects.
(a) Reduced engineering capability to extend life of other RAAF platforms using ‘ageingaircraft program’ techniques - F-111 provides ‘critical mass’.
(b) Loss of opportunities for domestic industry to effect import replacement through in-country upgrades on F-111 thus impacting balance of payments.
(c) Loss of opportunity to inoculate domestic aerospace industry sector and associated sys-tems integration industry sector from post September, 2001, global downturn.
(d) Loss of opportunities to further add value, and further leverage the vast materiel andintellectual investment the taxpayer has made in the F-111 and its support capabilities.
(e) Significant loss of employment in domestic systems integration and aerospace industrysector, including training positions.
Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority
9 Annex E - Sources and Bibliography 145
9 Annex E - Sources and Bibliography
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4. Fisher R D Jr (2002), ‘CHINA BUYS NEW RUSSIAN DESTROYERS’, CHINA BRIEF, Vol-ume 2 Issue 3, The Jamestown Foundation, January 31, http://www.jamestown.org/
publications_details.php?volume_id=18&issue_id=643&article_id=4609, accessedJanuary 2005.
5. Fisher R D Jr (2002), ‘CHINA’S CARRIER OF CHANCE’, CHINA BRIEF, Volume 2 Issue6, The Jamestown Foundation, March 14, http://www.jamestown.org/publications_
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9 Annex E - Sources and Bibliography 146
14. Kopp Carlo (1995), ‘76N6 Clam Shell Acquisition Radar Revealed’, Australian Aviation,Aerospace Publications, Canberra, May, http://www.ausairpower.net/region.html, ac-cessed January 2005.
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9 Annex E - Sources and Bibliography 147
28. Kopp Carlo (2004), ‘Backfires and the PLA-AF’s New ’Strategic Air Force”, International As-sessment and Strategy Center, September 22nd, http://www.strategycenter.net/research/pubID.5/pub_detail.asp, accessed January 2005.
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9 Annex E - Sources and Bibliography 148
41. Kopp Carlo and Goon Peter (2004), ‘Proof of Prior Knowledge: Regional Capability Growthand Joint Strike Fighter Limitations vs The 1998 F/A-18 Replacement Study (Review of De-fence Annual Report 2002-03: Analysis of Department of Defence Responses)’, Submission tothe JOINT STANDING COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS, DEFENCE AND TRADE DE-FENCE SUBCOMMITTEE, July 4, http://www.aph.gov.au/house/committee/jfadt/
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Figure 55: RAAF F-111C aircraft during the February, 2006, Red Flag exercise in the United States(US Air Force)
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Inquiry into Australian Defence Force Regional Air Superiority