subjective utility and plans for childbearing and employment

Subjective Utility and Plans for Childbearing and Employment

Elizabeth Thomson Department of Sociology University of Wisconsin

Nonrecursive models of plans for childbearing and employment were estimated for a sample of white married women, age 26 to 36, with one or two young children. Women's concerns about care of children already born did inhibit their employment plans. Further, plans to have another child in the near future had a direct negative effect on full-time employment plans among women with one child~ but not among women with two children. No direct effects of childbearing plans on part-time employment plans were found. In contrast to earlier research on Iong- term childbearing and employment plans, no direct effects of employment plans on plans for childbearing were found. It is suggested that attainment of the two-child family marks a turning point in the relation between childbearing and wives' employment.

For a good many years, social scientists have been trying to sort out the causal relationships between childbearing and employment of married women. The best evidence to date indicates that childbearing inhibits employment, but that employment has no ef fects- -at least in the short run--on childbearing (Cain, 1979; Cramer, 1980; Ewer, Crimmins, & Oliver, 1979; Smith-Lovin & Tickamyer, 1978). However, research on the decision processes and plans underlying these behaviors is less conclusive about the relative pr ior i ty of employment and childbearing in women's lives.

Some of the inconsistencies in this research may be due to the

This research was partially supported by grants from the Center for Population Re h search, NICHD to Battel[e Human Affairs Research Centers, Seattle, Washington (1-R01- HD10683), and to the Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison (1-R01-HD05876). I wish to thank Andrew R. Davidson for the opportunity to con- duct the research. I am also grateful to Pamela Oliver, Larry Bumpass, and the two anonymous reviewers for their constructNe comments on earlier versions of this article.

198 ©1984 Human Sciences Press

199

ELIZABETH THOMSON

different ways in which childbearing or employment plans were conceptualized and measured. Waite and Stolzenberg (1976) found that plans for employment "at age 35" had direct negative effects on expected family size, but that the opposite effect was relativeb/ weak. Cramer (1980) estimated several models of expected family size and plans for employment " in the next few years" among married women under age 37. He found that employment plans had negative effects on expected family size, but that the size and direction of the opposite effect was highly depen- dent on the model's specification.

A problem with both of these studies is that childbearing "plans" were represented by expected family size, a combination of past childbearing behavior and future childbearing plans. What does it mean about the planning of children and employment to find that plans for employment have a negative "effect" on the number of children already born? When Stolzenberg and Waite (1977) limited the analysis to women without children, they obtained a less ambiguous measure of plans for children. Among un- married women, the mutual effects of plans for employment at 35 and expected family size were found to be slightly larger than for the entire sample. However, among married women without children, both effects were considerably reduced, appearing to be non-significant. This suggests that, once women have made the decision to marr% they accept and attempt to balance the role of mother with that of employee.

Cain's (1979) preliminary anab/ses dealt with the confounding of past behavior and future plans by using expectations for ad- ditional children as the measure of childbearing plans. However, her measure of plans for employment "someday" was based on the assumption that women who were currentb/employed would plan to continue their employment. This fact, along with the relatively vague time period specified, may explain why no significant effects of either plan on the other were found.

The research reported here attempted to determine the priority of children and employment in women's plans by estimating the reciprocal effects of plans for childbearing and plans for employment during a two-year period. Because the relationship between employment and childbearing may vary by parity (Cramer, 1980; Hout, 1978), childbearing plans were parity- specific, relating to a second or third child. Further, since the relationship of childbearing with full-time employment appears to differ from that with part-time employment (Darian, 1975), plans

200

POPULATION AND ENVlRONMENT

for full-t ime and part-time emp[oyment were elicited and analyzed separately.

A further difference between this research and previous studies is that the determinants of childbearing plans or employment plans were specified to be the subjective util it ies, or the perceived benefits and costs, of childbearing or employment, respectively. Mode]s estimated in other studies generally specified objective characteristics and experiences such as age, income, education, religion, and race as causes of one, or the other, or both plans. In explaining the effects of such experiences on childbearing or employment plans, investigators taust infer the subjective meaning of those experiences. In this study those subjective meanings were directly elicited, rather than inferred.

DATA A N D METHODS

Respondents

From county birth records for residents of Seattle, Washington, married white women were identified who had had a first or second birth during 1973-1976 and who would be age 26-36 at the time of the in- terview. During April and May 1977, potential respondents were contacted indirectly, through the Director of the County Department of Public Health, to request their participation in a survey of contraceptive and childbearing attitudes and behavior. Of the women who could be reached by mail and who responded to the [etter of inquiry, 66 percent agreed to be contacted by the researchers. A woman was excluded from the study if she was no Ionger married and living with her husband, or if she or her husband had been surgically sterilized. Of the women determined to be eligible for the study, 95 percent (378) were surveyed. 1

Unfortunateb/, it was not possible to obtain any information on the nonrespondents to the initial contact in order to identify possible sources of response bias. Compared to white women of similar age, marital, and parental statuses, respondents were relatively weil educated. Over half had obtained college degrees and less than ten percent had terminated their education at or before high school graduation. On the other hand, their employment rate (36 percent) was almost identical to that of married white women with chi]dren under the age of six in the U.S. in 1977 (U.S. Department of Labor, 1978). The higher education of the respondents and their husbands is reflected in the somewhat higher family income reported by respondents than reported for structurally similar families.

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ELIZABETH THOMSON

Measurement

Childbearing and employment plans were measured on seven-point l ikel ihood scales (extremely unl ikely = 1 . . . . extremely l ikely = 7). Reports of three plans were elicited: (1) having another child within twenty months; (2) being employed ful l-t ime during the next two years; and (3) being employed part-time during the next two years. Because none of these women had been sterilized, and because current employment status is obviously reversible, each plan is "pure," i.e., does not include prior behavior.

On the basis of previous studies of childbearing and employment subjective ut i l i ty (e.g., Hoffman & Hoffman, 1973; Fawcett et a]., 1974; Hoffman & Nve, 1974; Davidson & Jaccard, 1975; Townes et al., 1977), and a content analysis of responses to a pi lot studv for the current research, 13 specific consequences of having another child within twenty months and 18 consequences of being employed (full-t ime or part-time) during the next two years were identified. Survey respondents were presented with the lists of childbearing or employment consequences and asked to give two responses for each consequence:

(1) their subjective probabi l i ty that the consequence would result from the behavior, measured on a scale ranging from 0 (no chance) to 10 (certain) 2

(2) their evaluation of the consequence, measured on a scale ranging from - 3 (extremely bad) to + 3 (extremely good)

Subjective ut i l i ty indicators were then constructed by mult ip ly ing each subjective probabi l i tv by its corresponding evaluation. Therefore, the theoretical range of each subjective ut i l i ty indicator is from - 3 0 to +30.

A[though each of these consequences had been distinguished in prior theoretical and empirical work, a number of them were con- ceptual ly similar, seeming to represent the same type of uti l i ty. Factor analyses of these responses supported the fol lowing clustering of subjective ut i l i ty indicators. 3 Indicators in a particular cluster were summed to form a single measure of that ut i l i ty component.

Ut i l i ty of having another chi]d within two years:

a. I ntrinsic benefits (watching child's development) b. Marital ties (stronger marital relationship, husband thinks they

should have child) c. Sibling benefits (boy-girl balance, companionship for children) d. Social approval (friends, religion, parents think they should have

child)

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e. Time/money cost (restrictions on personal activities, physical strain, fatigue, f inancial burden)

f. Parenting cost (less time and attention for children)

Ut i l i ty of being employed during the next two years (separate but parallel measures for ful l-t ime and part-time employment):

a. Intrinsic benefits (mental stimulation, feeling self-reliant, feeling worthwhile, interesting people)

b. Extrinsic benefits(easier to pay bills, more luxuries) c. Time cost (tiredness, restriction on personal activities) d. Marital strain (weaker marital relationship, husband's feeling less

manly, husband's disapproval) e. Social disapproval (disapproval of friends, parents) f. Parenting cost (weaker relationship with children, less time and at-

tention for children, children cared for by nonfamily members, not watching children develop)

g. Housework cost (Iower qual i ty housework)

ANALYSIS A N D RESULTS

Analysis of childbearing and employment plans was l imited to non- pregnant women with one child (N -- 140) orw i th two children (N -- 159). For each group of women, two nonrecursive models were estimated, one for childbearing and part-time employment plans, and one for childbearing and ful l-t ime employment plans. In each model, childbearing plans were specified to be determined by (a) employment plans and (b) the several subjective uti[it ies of childbearing. At the same time, the par- t icular employment plans (full-t ime or part-time) were specified to be determined by (a) childbearing plans and (b) the several subjective uti l i t ies of employment. Two-stage least-squares regression was used to estimate the simultaneous and reciprocal effects of each plan on the other, as weil as the effects of subjective uti l i t ies on their respective planned behaviors.

Table 1 presents the standardized regression coefficients for the two models of employment plans and childbearing plans of women with one child. The estimates for Model 1 indicate that part-time employment plans and childbearing plans did not have significant direct reciprocal effects. The weak zero-order relation between them (r = - .20) was ac- counted for by correlations among their respective subjective utilities. Part-time employment plans were most strongly related to intrinsic benefits of employment, marital strain, and parenting costs. 4 Child- bearing plans were most strongly related to marital ties and time/money costs of childbearing.

On the other hand, as shown for Model 2, childbearing plans did

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EL IZABETH T H O M S O N

Tablel Nonrecursive Models of Childbearing and Employment Plans ~

Parity One, Not Pregnant (N =140)

P~dal 1 Modal 2

Psrt-tlae Full-tlme lndopendont C h l l d b e a r l n i Eaployaent C h l l d b e s r l r ~ ~ p l o y m a n t Var iab lee Plans P l a n e Plarm Plane

Ch l ldbear ln4 Plans

Eaployaant Plane

P a r t - r i a s

F u l l - t l : m

Chl ldbesr£n4 Utllitlee

Intrlnsio Bener i t s

Marltal Tles

S l b l l ~ Beno f t t e

Soo £e i Approval

T 1 M / l ~ n e y ~ s t

Paren~Ing Coat

F, mp loyment Utillties

Intrlnalo Benetlt:B

Extrinslo Benafits

Ti~ Ca)et

Marltal St rain

Boolal Di~pproval

Parentln8 Coat

Houeework Coat

C o r r e l s t lon of ResldLut le

- .132 . . . . .223

- . 020 . . . . . .

. . . . . . . .087

ù087 . . . . 081

.q68 b . . . . ~61 b

- .059 . . . . 065

.021 . . . . 013

.355 b . . . . 339 b

ù122 --- .127

• 02~

.280 b

.255 b

- . 0 4 q

ù 10.5

.030

.239 b

- 120

.085

m ~ D

ù0~2 b

• 13;; b

.210

ù020

• 170

.298 tl

. 006

a- -3 tandard lged r q r a e a l o n o o e r r l o t e n t a ere two-eta~e l e u t - s q u a r a e e s t l m t e a r a r t h e t~o e l a u l t a n e o u e e q u a t l o n e .

b - - ~ t r t o o o e t f l o l e n t t8 a t l e a s t tw loe I t a standard e r r o r .

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POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

have a direct negative effect on full-time employment plans. The reciprocal effect was not statisticaily significant. In addition, full-time emplovment plans were most strongly related to extrinsic benefits of employment and to parenting costs.

The standardized regression coefficients for Models 1 and 2 among women with two children are presented in Table 2. None of the potential reciprocal effects of childbearing plans and employment plans were statistically significant. Plans for childbearing were most strongly related to time/money costs and to marital ties, as for women with one child. Both part-time and full-time employment plans are strongly related to parenting costs. The greater importance of extrinsic benefits for full-time employment plans and intrinsic benefits for part-time employment plans was also found for this group.

It should be pointed out that the models just presented are suf- ficient for estimating the direct reciprocal effects of childbearing and employment plans under the assumption that more distal causes of each plan are mediated by the subjective utilities in the models, as theorized by Fishbein (1967) and supported by Jaccard and Davidson (1976). As a check on this assumption, multiple-partial correlation coefficients (Blalock, 1979:496) were estimated for the relation between a set of objective characteristics and each of the three plans (for each parity group), controlling for the corresponding subjective utilities. Included in the analyses were age, previous marriage, education, number of sib[ings, residential background, religious denomination, husband's income, employment prior to marriage, employment prior to first birth, and age of youngest child. None of the six (three plans, two groups) multiple partial correlation coefficients were significantly different from zero. Thus, the reciprocal direct effects presented in Tables 1 and 2 were appropriately estimated.

DISCUSSION

These findings are consistent with a causal effect of childbearing on employment in the short run. For both groups of women, employment plans were strongly related to parenting costs. This supports Cain's (1979) f inding that perceptions of com- pat ib i l i ty between employment and childrearing were posit ively related to plans for employment. Further, plans to have a second child had a direct negative effect on plans to be employed full- time, while no effects of employment plans on childbearing plans were found.

Differences between findings for women with one child and for women with two children suggest that attainment of the two-

205

E L I Z A B E T H T H O M S O N

Table 2 Nonrecursive Models of Childbearing and Employment Plans ~

Parity lwo , Not Pregnant (N = 159)

Modal I Moda l 2

PLrt-tlss F u l l - t l m e Independsnt Childbearln~ Enployment Chl idbearlnK Enployment

V a r i a b l e s P l a n s P l a n s P lans Plar,-

Ch l l d b e a r l r ~ P lans - - - - , 0 3 6 . . . . .024

K s p l o y s m n t P lans

P a r t - t lme ,020 . . . . . . . . .

Full-tlme . . . . . . .048 ---

Childbsaring Utilitieß

Intrinsio Benefits .067 . . . . 077 ---

Marital T l e s • 3755 - -- .368 b ---

Biblir~

Benefits .078 . . . . 078 ---

S o e l & l Approvsl .05~ --- .060 ---

Tiae/Money Coat .318 b - - - .316 b - - -

Psrentln8

Cost -.056 . . . . .053 ---

[ a p l o y ~ n t U t l l i t i s s

Intrlnslo b b Ber ief i t a - - - ,2q q . . . . . O~ ]

Extrln$io

B e n e f i t s - - - .010 - - - .136

Time Coat - - - .052 - - - .2~ I

M a r l t a l ~traln . . . . .069 --- .091

Soclal

D i ~ p p r o v a l - - - .153 - - - .168

Farent lng Cost - - - . i l 39 b _ _ . .~ 16 b

Housework

~ s t . . . . .026 . . . . .118

C o r r s l s t i o n or Reslduals .058 - ,011

a - - - 3 t a n d a r d l ; e d r e s r e s s l o n o o e f f l o l e n t s a r e t w o - a t a s e l s a s t - s q u a r e a a s t l a l a t e s f o r t h e two a l m u l t a n e o u s e q u a t l o n s .

b - - - H s t r l o o o e f f l o l s n t l a a t l e a s t t w ; o e I t a s t a n d a r d e r r o r .

206


child family marks a turning point in the relation between childbearing and wives' employment. The effect of concerns about care of children on employment plans were greater among women with two children than among women with one child. However, plans to have a second child directly affected full-time employment plans, while plans to have a third child did not. That is, for both groups of women, the total "effect" of children on employment plans can be attributed to the two-child family. Attainment of this normative family size may take prioriW over employment, while plans for three or more children are weighed more equally with plans for employment.

Differences between the findings for part-time employment and full-time employment indicate that this distinction is fun- damental to understanding the relation between childbearing and employment. Only full-time employment plans were significantly affected by plans for a second child. This finding suggests that the desire for a two-child family takes prioriW over full-time com- mitment to employment, but not over some continuing in- volvement in an employee role.

A thorough understanding of the decision processes underlying the relation between childbearing and employment of married women requires Iongitudinal analyses of plans and behavior and would benefit from direct measurement of subjective child utilities. The latter point is underscored by the finding that objective social and economic characteristics did not add significantly to the explanatory power of the subjective utilities for each plan. The sequences analyzed by Cramer (1980) and Cain (1979) are an important step in this direction. Similar studies, in- corporating improvements in the measurement of childbearing and employment plans, and measures of the subjective utility of childbearing and of employment, would contribute a great deal more to our explanations of the relation between childbearing and married women's employment.

REFERENCE NOTES

1. Known mailing failures reduced the initial number of 4,382 potential respondents to 3,486 (72 percent). In addition, 2,304 women did not respond to the initial inquiry either positivel¥ or negatively; due to restrictions imposed by the Public Health Department, it was not possible to determine how many of these nonrespondents should be attributed to unknown mailing fai]ures, assumed ineligibility (e.g., no Ionger married), forget- fulness, Iow motivation to participate, or refusal to participate.

207

ELIZABETH THOMSON

2. This scale differs from the 7-point likelihood scale traditionally used to measure subjective probabilities, and which was used to measure childbearing and employment plans in this research. The 11-point scale is more likely to have a true rational zero than the 7-point scale. Assuming tbat the evaluation scale also has a rational zero at the mid- point, the product of these two rneasures will satisfy the interval measurement assumption of least-squares regression. The products of two interval-level measures, on the otber hand, will not necessarily form an interval scale. Although it would have been more consistent to measure childbearing and employment plans on a similar probability scale, it was not necessary to do so to insure interval-level measurement, and the more traditional measure was therefore used.

3. Results of factor analyses of the employment util ity indicators are presented in Thom- son (1980), using slightly different labels for the factors or components of employment utility. Results of similar analyses of the childbearing util ity indicators are available from the author on request.

4. Although some of the subjective util ity variables represent benefits and others represent costs, the measures were computed in such a way as to expect a positive relation between subjective util ity and childbearing or employment plans. For example, suppose that all women evaluate negatively the consequence "weaker relationsbip with my husband;" then all values on the corresponding subjective util ity indicator would be negative. However, the most negative (lowest) values would be found among women who (a) evaluated the consequence most negatively and (b) believed that the consequences was highly likely to occur. These women would be the least likely to plan to be employed. On the other hand, women who either (a) evaluated the consequence less negatively (minor cost) or (b) believed that the consequence was unlikely to occur, would have higber (less negative) subjective uti l i ty values and would be more likely to plan employment. The resulting relationship between the indicator and plans for employment would be positive.

REFERENCES

Bla[ock, H.M. (1979). Social Statistics (Revised 2nd Edition). New York: McGraw-Hill. Cain, P. (1979). The determinants of marital labor supply, fertility, and sex-role attitudes.

Paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association, Denver, Colorado (April).

Cramer, J.C. (1980). Fertilitv and female employment: Problems of causal direction. American 5ociological Review 45, 167-190.

Darian, J.C. (1975). "Convenience of work and the ]ob constraint of children.'" Demography 12, 245-258.

Davidson, A.R., and Jaccard, J.J. (1975). "Population psychology: A new Iook at an old problem." Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 31(6), 1073-1082.

Ewer, P.A., Crimmins, E., Oliver, R. (1979). An analysis of the relationship between husband's income, family size, and wife's employment in the early stages of marriage. Journal of Marriage and the Family, 41,727-738.

Fawcett, J.T., Arnold, F., Bulatao, R.A., Buripakdi, C., Chung, B.J., Iritani, T., Lee, S.J., Wu, T.S. (1974). The value of children in Asia and the United States: Comparative perspectives. Paper Number 32, East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, Hawaii.

Fisbbein, M. (1967). "Att i tude and the prediction of behavior." Pp. 477-492 in M. Fisbbein (ed.), Readings in Attitude Theory and Measurement. New York: Wiley.

Hoffman, L.W., & Hoffman, M.L. (1973). "The value of children to parents." Pp. 19-76 in J.T. Fawcett (ed.), Psychological Perspectives on Population. New York: Basic Books.

Hoffman, L.W., & Nye, I.F. (1974). Working Mothers. San Francisco: Jossey Bass. Hout, M. (1978). The determinants of marital fertil itv in the United States, 1968-1970: In-

ferences from a dvnamic model. Demography ~5, 139-159.

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POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

Jaccard, J.J. & Davidson, A.R. (1976). The relation of psychological, social, and economic variables to ferti l ity-related decisions. Demography 13, 329-338.

Smith~Lovin, L., & Tickamyer, A.R. (1978). Labor force participation, fert i l i ty behavior, and sex role attitudes. American Sociological Review 43, 541-557.

Stolzenberg, R., & Waite, L.J. (1977). Age, fert i l i ty expectations, and plans for employment. American Sociological Review 42, 769-783.

Townes, B.D., Beach, LR., Campbell, F.L., & Martin, D.C. (1977). Birth planning values and decisions: The prediction of ferti l i ty. Journal of Applied Social Psychology 7, 73-88.

U.S. Department of Labor. (1978). Marital and Family Characteristics of Workers (March, 1977) Special Labor Force Report, 216. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Of- fice.

Waite, L.J., & St.olzenberg, R.M. (1976). Intended childbearing and labor force participation of young women: Insights from nonrecursive models. American Sociological Review 41, 235-252.

subjective utility and plans for childbearing and employment

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