STATE OF MICHIGAN

DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONLANSING

THOMAS D. WATKINS, JR.SUPERINTENDENT OFPUBLIC INSTRUCTION

JENNIFER M. GRANHOLMGOVERNOR

TO: State Board of Education

FROM: Tom Watkins

DATE: September 9,2004

SUBJ: APPROVAL OF CALCULATION OF ADEQUATEYEARLY PROGRESS FOR SMALL, RURAL ANDSPECIALIZED SCHOOLS

The No Child Left Behind Act of2001 (NCLB) requires states to calculate adequate yearlyprogress (A YP) for all public schools. At the same time, the Act pemrits each state to declare aminimum number of students that need to be enrolled in the grade level or student group to betested, in order to calculate A YP. In our recent issuance of elementary and middle school reportcards, we were unable to calculate A yP for 118 schools that did not have sufficient numbers ofstudents.

In order to comply with the law and issue A yP designations to these small schools, as well as toother specialized schools that did not get a report card (for example, Special Education centerprograms), we are proposing the use of a modified confidence interval.

This modified confidence interval is described in the attached pages, which consist of amemorandum sent to the U.S. Department of Education for the Department's preliminaryreVIew.

On September 9, we were informed that the U. S. Department of Education will approve ourconfidence interval proposal, if it is approved by the State Board of Education.

dated Seotember 2. 2004. to calculate A yP for small. rural. and snecialized schools whosestudent enrollments. at the erade levels tested. are less than 30.

STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION

KATHLEEN N. STRAUS - PRESIDENT. HERBERT S. MOYER - VICE PRESIDENTCAROLYN L. CURTIN - SECRETARY. JOHN C. AUSTIN - TREASURER

MARIANNE YARED MCGUIRE - NASBE DELEGATE. ELIZABETH W. BAUERREGINALD M. TURNER. EilEEN LAPPIN WEISER

608 WEST ALLEGAN STREET. P.O. BOX 30008 . LANSING. MICHIGAN 48909www.michigan.gov/mde . (517) 373-3324

MICHIGAN~EducaltiOitTHOMAS D. WATKINS, JR.

SUPERINTENDENT OFPUBLIC INSTRUCTION

STATE OF MICHIGAN

DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATIONLANSING

JENNIFER M. GRANHOLMGOVERNOR

TO:

FROM

DarIa Marburger, U.S. Office of Education

JeremyM. Hughes, Ph.D. M\ Chief Academic Officer/D~~perintendent

DATE: September 2, 2004

SUBJ: PROPOSED CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR SMALLSCHOOLS

Per our phone conversation yesterday, we intend to propose to the State Board of Education, atits September 14,2004 meeting, that a sliding-scale type of confidence interval be applied tosmall schools that enroll fewer than 30 students at the grade level tested. (Thirty [30] is theminimum N that you have approved for Michigan for purposes of calculating A yP based on theachievement scores of students in English Language Arts and Mathematics.)

I am attaching excel files depicting how the confidence intervals would be applied to the varioussizes of schools, ranging from 29 students to 1. (Note that there is only one excel file for middleschools since the middle school achievement target is the same for both ELA and Math.)

You will note that we are applying the confidence interval not to achievement scores but to thepercentages of students who need to demonstrate proficiency on the state assessments in orderfor the school to be considered making A YP. For example, an elementary school with 20students enrolled needs to have 35% of its students proficient on the state ELA test, as opposedto 38% (the state target) for schools of 30 or more students.

I acknowledge that this "sliding scale" is a bit unusual, as well as perhaps the application of aconfidence interval to the percent-proficient as opposed to actual achievement scores. We feel,however, this proposal has the best chance of being approved by our State Board of Education.As you know from some of our earlier conversations, our state board has been opposed to the useof a traditional confidence interval fonnula because of the wide score range that results,allowing, perhaps, more schools to be classified as making A yP when they are actually notachieving well and are in need of improvement.

The sliding scale being proposed imposes, we feel, a more conservative, rigorous criterion thatwill still benefit small schools to a certain degree.

STATE BOARD OF EDUCATION

KATHLEEN N. STRAUS - PRESIDENT. HERBERT S. MOYER - VICE PRESIDENTCAROLYN L CURTIN - SECRETARY. JOHN C. AUSTIN - TREASURER

MARIANNE YARED MCGUIRE - NASBE DELEGATE. ELIZABETH W. BAUERREGINALD M. TURNER. EilEEN LAPPIN WEISER

608 WEST ALLEGAN STREET. P.O. BOX 30008 . LANSING, MICHIGAN 48909_.michigan.gov/rnde . (517) 373-3324

2

Page 2

In our conversation yesterday, I also mentioned that we were considering a request to use a"backmapping" approach with these schools as a second tier to detem1ine A YP. In other words,after the application of the proposed confidence interval formula above, if the school were stillnot making A yP we would consider whether the school could make A yP by backmapping theA yP designation of the school into which it fed its students. Weare not longer considering thisand it will not be part of our proposed Accountability Workbook amendments.

I would appreciate hearing from you as soon as possible, in order to begin preparing materialsfor the September 14 State Board of Education meeting.

If you or your psychometric staff have questions about our proposal, I would also invite you tocontact our Department of Education psychometrician, Dr. Joseph Martineau, at 517-241-1740.

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