Student Futures Project Policy LuncheonAustin, TX

December 17, 2013

Research Discussion• Bring to light regional challenges in meeting our goal

of increasing direct-to-college enrollment rates.

• Review initial approaches to meeting this goal

• Describe some initial successes

• Discuss new research and approaches

• Present some preliminary results from this research (Part I)

Research Questions What are graduating seniors’ high school

experiences, plans and preparation for life after high school?

What share of high school graduates enroll in postsecondary education, become employed, or do both in the fall after graduation?

What share of graduates are enrolled and/or employed over time?

Which factors are significantly associated with positive postsecondary education and employment outcomes?

How do outcomes change over time for cohorts of graduates and selected populations groups?

Reports can be found at: www.centexstudentfutures.org

Senior Surveys Family background/ influences High school experiences Preparation for life after high school

Postsecondary Education Records

National Student

Clearinghouse Texas Education Research Center records

Employment Records Texas Unemployment Insurance (UI) wage records

HistoricalSchool Records Student demographics Courses taken Test performance

Data Sources

Regional ChallengesA number of challenges face the region as it

works to improve postsecondary enrollment rates. These include the following:

Population growth Demographic changes Reduced student employment in high school District diversity Aspiration Gap

Regional Growth of High School Graduates

Demographic ChangesRise in the Share of Low-Income Graduates

Reduced Employment While in High School

Graduating Cohort

Employment After High School Graduation

Percent of Graduates Enrolled in Fall, by College Type and District

(Four Year Averages, N=50,623)

Percent of Graduates Enrolled in Fall, by College Location and District

(Four Year Averages, N=50,623)

College Enrollment Aspiration Gap

82%89% 91% 91% 91% 91%

57% 62% 61% 61% 61% 62%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

College Intention (Survey) College Enrollment (NSC)

Aspiration Gap

Want to go to college but face barriers, some of them financial

Subset of these students might be considered “low-hanging fruit”

A little help might go a long way to increasing regional DTC rates.

Initial StrategiesThe region’s initial efforts to improve direct-to-

college enrollment rates focused on the following:

Performance management through Senior Surveys and District Education Progress Reports.

Improving regional college academic readiness by emphasizing the importance of rigorous academic course taking.

Increasing access to financial aid through Financial Aid Saturdays.

Participation in College Preparation Activities,

2006 through 2011

40%51%

46%55% 56% 58%

67% 70%77% 81%

89% 91%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

FAFSA Submission College Entrance Test

18% Points

24% Points

College Enrollment Aspiration Gap

82%89% 91% 91% 91% 91% 89%

57% 62% 61% 61% 61% 62% 61%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

College Intention (Survey, Seniors) College Enrollment (NSC, Graduates)

Regional, State, and National Postsecondary Enrollment

by High School Graduation Cohort

College Enrollment RatesBy Income Status

39% 44% 44% 46% 44%

67% 68% 67% 71% 70%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Regional Low-Income (NSC) Regional Not Low-Income (NSC)

National Average (BLS)

Regional Response to Flat Direct to College Enrollment

Rates

• Develop clearer research message (The Top 5 Things…)

• Region-wide efforts up to this point primarily focused on the senior year, but they don’t appear to have moved the aggregate needle.

• Examine the effect of coursework and activities during the 11th and 12th grade years, and

• Work to reduce college enrollment barriers during the summer after high school graduation.

Factors Associated with Postsecondary Enrollment

Convenient:

Does not demand additional classroom time and short-term means we could see results quickly.

Important:

Literature in this field and common sense indicate they are important.

Focused:

These activities are almost exclusively associated with the transition to college.

Manageable:

There are so many things you CAN do, and this limits the number examined.

Collaborative Potential:

Require pooling resources across the broader community.

Reasons to Examine Short-Term Strategies Outside the Classroom

Regional Participation Rates

Marginal Adjusted Predicted Effect: If you kept all other variables at there actual values, what change would you expect to see in postsecondary enrollment?

Marginal Predicted Effect on Postsecondary Enrollment for Individual

Variables

Predicted Cumulative Effects on College Enrollment

-65%

-48%

-45%

-49%

-81%

-70%

-60%

-39%

4%

6%

6%

10%

6%

6%

6%

6%

3%

6%

4%

8%

3%

5%

5%

5%

3%

5%

3%

3%

3%

4%

3%

3%

-100% -80% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20%

Overall

Hispanic

Low Income

First Generation

Top Quartile

Second Quartile

Third Quartile

Last Quartile

Met w/Counselor about College Completed FAFSA Plan to Pay for College Using Loans

Took SAT/ACT Prep. Course Participated in College Fair Considered Financial Aid Easy

Baseline Enrollment Cumulative Effect Enrollment

Class of 2010

Class of 2010 research expanded the predicted effect research by including additional types of activities and coursework students engage in during the 11th and 12th grade years including:

•Taking advanced math and an Advanced Placement course (improves predicted DTC rates by 5% points),

•Meeting with their counselor about scholarships (2% points)

•Completing the FAFSA, attending a college fair, taking an SAT/ACT prep course, and visiting a college (4% points),

•Improve high school GPA from the 10th grade to graduation (4% points).

•Do all four of the above (improves predicted DTC rates by 12% points)

General Findings

SFP research over the last several years has identified the importance of the following:

•Focusing on financial aid supports

•Effectively utilizing counseling staff

•Encouraging students to take and succeed in rigorous courses

•Encouraging students to take an SAT/ACT preparation course

•Helping students see college before they go to college in the form of college fairs and college visits

In combination, these work together to improve predicted enrollment rates.

Effective TargetingEffective Targeting Financial Aid

InformationWith ever increasing shares of low-income students, there is an opportunity for increased financial aid for the region.

•Providing targeted financial aid information to students who need it the most is needed to capitalize on this increased regional capacity for financial aid.

•However, there are currently no region-wide and consistent means of measuring financial aid knowledge students have while in high school.

•Many districts already have programs in place to provide college and financial aid information to students throughout their high school years.

11th and 12th Grade Activities and Coursework, Class of 2010Other Examples of Effective Targeting Opportunities

Only 51% of students who took a Career and Technology Education (CATE) course completed the Free Application for Federal Student Aid (FAFSA), compared with 59% of students who took Algebra 2 and 67% of students who took an AP course.

Hispanic, low-income or first generation students and students with a GPA between 70-80% at the end of their 10th grade year not only participate less frequently in key courses and activities known to be related to enrolling in college, those who do participate in these courses and activities are less likely to engage in multiples of them.

Current and Future WorkPlans for current and future work include the following efforts:Providing region-wide information on college persistence as well as college access,

Piloting a Junior Year survey to find out critical information about students and their post-high school plans and then feed this information back to counselors to target students for support earlier and more effectively, and

Reducing barriers to college enrollment that occur in the summer following high school graduation by providing counselor support over the summer.

For More Information

Greg CumptonRay Marshall CenterLyndon B. Johnson School of Public AffairsThe University of Texas at Austingcumpton@raymarshallcenter.org

Heath Prince, Associate DirectorRay Marshall CenterLyndon B. Johnson School of Public AffairsThe University of Texas at Austinheathprince@raymarshallcenter.org www.centexstudentfutures.org

www.raymarshallcenter.org