stuart wright, jason kram, buck feng - power …...fuel forecasting emission forecasting day ahead:...
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Optimizing Hydro and Thermal ResourcesFebruary 19, 2015
Stuart Wright, Jason Kram, Buck Feng
Agenda / Expectations
• Introduction / Company Overview
• PCI Platform and System Overview
• PCI Optimization Framework
• Optimization Model – PCI GenTrader
• Demonstration
• Wrap Up / Questions
2
Key Takeaways
• PCI optimizes thermal and hydro resources across all commodities and markets
• PCI has consistent data model and optimization engine for short term, long term, and post analytic simulation
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4
PCI Overview
Company:– Software Development for Energy Markets– 160 employees as of 1/2015
– Advanced level/skilled employees– Privately owned – no debt / organic growth.– Offices in OKC, Houston, Raleigh
System:– PCI GSMS (Generation Supply Management System)
Portfolio Optimization ISO Bid/Offer Management Bidding Analytics Shadow Settlement Post Analysis Deal Management Gas Management Data warehouse & BI
Market:– 60% of US generation capacity using PCI– 70% of Fortune 500 Utility & Energy companies
Transactional Database, Workflow Management, Communication, Permissions, Auditing, Web Browser Interface, APIs
Platform
Markets: ALL
Front Office
AESOCAISOERCOTIESOMISOISONENYISOPJMSPP
ISO Communication, Bid/Offer Management, Bid Evaluation, Price Forecasting
AESOCAISOERCOTIESOMISOISONENYISOPJMSPP
Trading
Markets: ALL
Deal Capture, E-Tag, Deal Analyst, ICE Interface, Gas Management, Contract Settlement, RT Pricing
Asset Operations
Markets: ALL
Outage Management, Journal, Plant Interface, GADS, Energy (QF) Scheduling, Gas Pipeline Scheduling
Post Analysis
Markets: ALL
Operational Performance Metrics
Optimization
Markets: ALL
ST, LT, Risk
PCI Data Warehouse
Back Office
ISO Shadow Settlement, Allocations, Pre-Settlements, Reporting, Energy Accounting
PCI Application Platform
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PCI GenPortal PCI GenManager PCI GenTraderPCI Deal
ManagementPCI Asset
OperationsPCI PostAnalysis
PCI GenTrader – Feature Evolution
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Unit CommitmentEconomic DispatchLoad & Generation
Constraints:*Fuel*Transmission
Opportunity:*Ancillary
Services
Opportunity:*Markets*Options
Constraints:*Combined
Cycles
Constraints:*Emissions*Renewables
Opportunity:*Hydro
ThermalCo-optimization
Improved computational power and speed increases
Improved optimization logic enhancements and methods
What PCI GenTrader Can Do For You
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LT WM DA
Planning:>1 month< 30 years
Portfolio Structuring
Risk Management
Earnings Forecasting
Asset Valuation
Term Trading
Origination Pricing
Within Month:>1 day< 1 month
Optimize Net Open/Residual
Asset Management
Outage Management
Fuel Forecasting
Emission Forecasting
Day Ahead:>1 Hour< 1 Week
Resource Plan
Suggested Trades
Open Position
Wind Management
Fuel Procurement
Deal Capture
WD PA
Within Day:>0.5 Hour< 1 day
Intra-day optimal dispatch
Outage rescheduling
Wind adjustments
Deal Capture
Post Analysis:>1 Hour< 1 Year
Key Performance Indices
Outage Costing
Transaction Costing
Operational Efficiency
OperationsPlanning Day Ahead Post AnalysisReal Time
PCI GenTrader Applications
Plan with real characteristics
Forecast with real characteristics
Execute with real characteristics
React with real characteristics
Measure and improve with real
characteristics
Optimization: Maximize Profits
• Find (solution variables)
– Generation/fuel/water schedules
– Bilateral purchases and sales
– Market purchases and sales
– Fuel purchases and sales
• Such that (objective function)
– We can achieve maximum Profit = REVENUE – EXPENSE
• While meeting the constraints
Supply = Demand
Respects physical limitations
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GenTrader Input and Output
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Markets Power Markets Fuel Markets
Depth and tiers transmissions pipelines
Prices LMP curves
Energy Ancillary Services Fuel Volatility Correlations
Generator Characteristics reservoirs/waterways operating limits ancillary capabilities ramp & cycling limits
heat rates hydro power curves emission rates startup profiles planned & forced outages
Contracts Options Forward (quantity risk) Energy Ancillary services Fuels Emissions
Financial Data Revenue and expense Mark-to-Market P&L Production costs O&M costs Emission costs Expected portfolio P&L Portfolio Risk Exposure Arbitrage opportunities System Net Open Position
Physical Data Optimized unit schedules Energy & Ancillary Services Combined-cycle operation Waterway flow schedules Reservoir elevation levels Contract schedules Recommended option exercise Fuel consumption Capacity factors, starts/stops Emission constraints Outages
Study Types 1 hour to 30 years Optimized UC Fixed UC
Run Modes Portfolio Stress Test Stochastic
*stochastic information
GenTrader Optimization Capabilities
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Portfolio Manager
Fuel Manager
Fuel Markets
Fuel Contracts
Pipelines
Storage
Emissions
Water Manager
Hydro SystemCascaded
Reservoirs, Waterways
and Generating
UnitsHydro Electric
Asset Manager
Power Trader
Scheduler
Power Markets
Power Gen
Loads
Power Contracts
Trans-missions
AncillaryServices
Wind
Solar
Generation/Trans-
mission Planner
Demand Response
PCI GenTrader Data Models
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Price Library [Power]
Power Market [Purchase]
Plant
Power Market [Sa le]
Unit
Forward / Option [Sale]
Reservoir Hydro Unit
Fuel Market [Purchase]
Price Library [Fuel]
Fuel Market [Sale]Forward [Sale]
Forward / Option [Purchase]
Forward [Purchase]
NOx
CO2 and Other Emissions
SO2
Waterway
Hydro Network Topology
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Generator/Pump
Reservoir
Ground
Connector
Hydro Nodes
Runoff
Penstock
Spillway
Water Release
Waterways
Hydro-Electric Network Optimization
• Optimize thermal and hydro resources across all commodities and markets
• Consistent data model and optimization engine for both short term and long term simulation
• Fully integrated and automated or stand-alone deployment
• Support operational planning, trading, and bidding activities
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PCI In Focus (www.pciinfocus.com)
April 13-16, 2015 / Sacramento, CA
Day 0:
4 parallel training sessions:
EIM – CAISO Workshop
Optimization/Analytics
Front/Back Office Operations
System Admin
Day 1:
9 Customer Presentations
APS
First Energy
Basin Electric
Ameren
Duke Energy
Day 2:
6 Customer Presentations
ISO Panel Session (7 ISOs)
4 Parallel Breakout Sessions
Day 3:
4 Parallel Breakout Sessions
Hydro Network Optimization
• Network topology
– reservoirs, waterways, power houses and pumps.
• Optimal scheduling of water flow (cfs), reservoir elevation level (ft), and power generation (MW)
• Comprehensive hydro-electric characteristics
– Head/Flow dependent generation efficiency (cfs/MW/ft)
– Head/Flow dependent pumping efficiency
– Reservoir storage function
– Tailrace elevation function
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Hydro Network Optimization
• Non-linear Head-Dependent Hydro-Electric
Conversion Function
– Pumping and generation
– Varying water to power rate with head level
– Up to 10 head segments and up to 10 MW breakpoints for each head segment
– Tailrace level is affected by the rate of water discharge at outlet, and it impacts head level for power house
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Hydro Network Optimization
• Reservoir model
– physical min/max storage limits
– target lower/upper bounds with violation costs
• Waterway model
– Min/Max flow limits
– Direct and reverse flow costs
– Multiple waterways between reservoirs
• Hydro Generating/Pumping Units
– Operating limits, cycling constraints, O&M costs
– Multiple units on a single penstock
– Multiple penstocks feeding a unit
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Study Setup
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Same model used for 1-hour to 30-year studies by setting begin and end dates
Gas-day or Reservoir-day definition could be different from calendar day
Handling of NERC Holidays in Standard Product Definition
Support both Optimized Commitment and Fixed Commitment
Reserve sharing
Modeling Capabilities
• Study Types– Short Term and Long Term– Portfolio and Stress Test– Stochastic Analysis
• Markets– Markets and transmissions– Price libraries
• Contract Types (power, fuel, emissions)– Forward– Options
• Generation Asset Model– Heat rates and pump/generation efficiency– Generating units and reservoir/waterway operating limits– Ancillary service capabilities– Cycling constraints, emission constraints, fuel constraints– Multi-stage units (combined cycle)
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Input Data
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Markets• BAs• ISOs
Transmission• Power
Transport• Fuel
Price Libraries• Price index• Forward curves
Contracts• Buy/Sell• Commodities• Emission Allowances
Generation Assets• Plants and units• Hydro Networks• Unit fuel supplies• Emission sources
Running a Study
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Output Data
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For More Information
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Bid-To-Bill Automation– Forecast LMPs
– Automate XML Communications with CAISO
– Create Unit & Demand Bids
– Evaluate Bidding Strategies
– Perform Shadow Settlement
Risk Management– Hedge effectiveness
– Monte-Carlo Simulation
– Earnings-at-Risk
– Deal pricing
Operations & Trading– Optimal unit commitment and economic
dispatch
– Fuel scheduling
– Ancillary services optimization
Post Analysis– After-the-fact Transaction costing
– Optimal vs Actual Production Costs
PCI GENERATION SUPPLY MANAGEMENT SYSTEM™
Khai Le
919-730-9899
Buck Feng
405-226-6398
Jason Kram
832-228-8474