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African Utility Week 2008, Cape Town, South Africa

Stuart FredmanManaging Director

Cullinan Energy SolutionsSouth Africa


FunctionalityAffordabilityPracticalityDurabilityUseability

Solar renewable energy and international trends: The benefits for South Africa


Solar Technologies• PV – Photovoltaic's

– 1st Gen crystalline– 2nd Gen thin film– 2nd + Gen CPV concentrated PV– BIPV

• Thermal Electric– CSP concentrated Solar Power

• Thermal Heating and cooling– SWH


Examples of Solar installations

• Solar Farms

Spain30000 MWh30000 tons CO2

USA Arizona4900 MWh3650 tons CO2

Germany6.3MWp


Examples from Rural Sites


Examples BIPV


CSP Plant


• $120+ a barrel for Oil and rising• Power shortages in India, Pakistan,

Brazil, South Africa• UK to deploy large scale Nukes by

2020• 30 new nukes in process in the USA• Germany lead deployment of PV

systems• EU 30% renewable target by 2020• Round 2 of Kyoto protocol

Global Trends


Local Trends• Economy Grows at 3-5 %, the shortfall in generating capacity

continues • ESKOM cannot sustain nor meet energy demands, black outs ,

large price increases 14% +50%??• R2B rebate from ESKOM for SWH deployment , is this actually

going to materialize?• ESKOM are still planning new stations , little capa city changes

until after 2014• More people are moving up the LSM ladder with highe r energy

demands (TV’s , PC’s etc)• Housing or commercial developments are retarded by lack of

energy• Green issues and legislation starting to bite into costs.• Commercial, industrial and residential projects on hold…go

solar!!


Global Energy Supply to 2100


Exponential growth of PV and CSP deployment in Germany

Installed capacity and energy supplyfrom photovoltaic installations in Germany 1990 - 2 006

188

1,28

2

313

2,00

0

55711

6

64423226161186321

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

[GW

h]

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

[MW

p]

Electricity supply [GWh] Installed capacity [MWp]

Sources: BMU-Brochure " Renew able energy sources in f igures – national and international development-" Version: June 2007provisional f igures

Development of collector area and energy supply of solar thermal installations for heat supply in Germany 19 90 - 2006

1,45

7

1,82

1

2,19

4

2,64

1 3,28

4 4,19

9 4,74

9 5,47

8 6,23

5

7,19

7

8,61

0

946

749

340 468 590

1,15

9

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

area

[1,0

00 m

2 ]

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

[GW

h]

Area Energy supply [GWh]

Sources: BMU-Brochure " Renew able energy sources in figures – national and international development-" Version: June 2007provisional f igures


HKGK

Crunch Time in South Africa


The South African Alternative to HKGK

Go Solar

Why ?Its expensive or is it?Perfect for RSATrack recordBreak the vested interest in fossil fuelsBecome independentGo green


Insolation Map


Solar MotivationFull Autonomy

Once off CostFixed monthly feeTotal autonomy from any supplier : price hikes, out ages, spikes,Clean energy (no carbon footprint for 20 + years )Definable payback periodNew disciplines and lifestyle is a non negotiable f actorUpgrades are very technical but not difficult to im plementOnly 1 consumerable item ( 5-10 years life span of batteries )


Example of full Autonomy Description Qty R/Unit R Total

Solar 44 3200 R 140,800Inverter 1 27500 R 27,500Regulator 1 2500 R 2,500Lights 0 135 R 0Batteries 24 3300 R 79,200Battery Box 1 2500 R 2,500Solar water heater underfloor 200Lx 3 0 28500 R 0piping, valves and pump* EST 0 1200 R 0

Solar water heater 200L Split system internal geysers 2 22500 R 45,000Structures 0 1250 R 0Sundry wiring 8 350 R 2,800Installation* EST 1 8500 R 8,500Hardware Subtotal R 308,800

Project Total R 308,800

Quantity Watts Hours Wh/Day1 125.0 12.0 1,5001 1200.0 0.4 4801 450.0 8.0 3,600

20 11.0 4.0 8801 200.0 24.0 4,8003 220.0 4.0 2,640

13,900Actual Wh / Day

Security systemlights downlightersTV/DSTV/Sound

fridge/freezerAC-LOAD item

microwave

bedrooms


PaybackYears cost per Kwh energy per year Cumulative Total

1 1 0.73 R 10,208 R 10,2081.1400 2 0.84 R 11,637 R 21,8451.2996 3 0.95 R 13,267 R 35,1121.4815 4 1.09 R 15,124 R 50,2361.6890 5 1.24 R 17,241 R 67,4771.9254 6 1.41 R 19,655 R 87,1322.1950 7 1.61 R 22,407 R 109,5392.5023 8 1.84 R 25,544 R 135,0822.8526 9 2.09 R 29,120 R 164,2023.2519 10 2.39 R 33,196 R 197,3983.7072 11 2.72 R 37,844 R 235,2424.2262 12 3.10 R 43,142 R 278,3844.8179 13 3.54 R 49,182 R 327,5665.4924 14 4.03 R 56,067 R 383,6346.2613 15 4.60 R 63,917 R 447,5507.1379 16 5.24 R 72,865 R 520,4168.1372 17 5.98 R 83,066 R 603,4829.2765 18 6.81 R 94,696 R 698,178

10.5752 19 7.77 R 107,953 R 806,13112.0557 20 8.85 R 123,066 R 929,197

This excludes the payback of 3-4 years for the SWH


Solar MotivationPartial Autonomy

Once off CostFixed monthly fee as well as a variable costPartial autonomy from any supplier : outages, spike sDefinable payback periodNo lifestyle changesBest of both worlds at a cost (is the cost justifia ble ?)


• Fast track deployment• Modular and upgradeable• No energy costs• Minimal maintenance costs• Long life and verified in the field• Easy to upskill installation and support teams• Economically viable and increasingly cost competiti ve

The benefits for South Africa


• Think Solar CSP or PV!!!!• Incorporate SWH into your design• Incorporate BIPV into your design• Plan Autonomy or partial Autonomy• Use new technologies for lighting and

heating/cooling• Go Green• Be proactive , motivate these solutions to your

clients• Self sustainable for over 20 years !!!!

Actions!

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