structure data 2014: how microdata can say a lot about macroeconomics, david soloff

Wednesday, March 26, 14

HOW MICRODATA CAN SAY A LOT ABOUT MACROECONOMICS

David SoloffPremise


DAVID SOLOFF@davidsoloff


“—no, a dreary, desolate and, indeed, quite abject and distressing one; what we might call, by way of eminence, the dismal science.”

— Thomas Carlyle


Mikro Data

& Makro

Economics


"There's still a Cold War element to our statistics. We're kind of in a holding pattern. In many situations I found myself wishing we had more current data and broader data."

— Alan Krueger

http://on.wsj.com/1ggFq9c




January 2007

September 2007

February 2008

March 2008

April 2008

Mexico: “Tortilla Riots”

West Bengal: Riots over food shortages and public corruption

Cameroon: High fuel and food prices

Senegal: Protests over high cost of living

Haiti: Riots over rising food prices

Yemen: Riots as price of wheat doubles, rice + vegetables up 20%

Egypt: Riots over the price of bread

November 2008 China: Contaminated milk due to high cattle feed prices

October 2007 Russia: Gov’t pressures food producers to freeze prices


Food prices and the incidence of violence in Africa [van Weezel 2013]


Mar May Jul Sep Nov

0.94

0.96

0.98

1.00

1.02

1.04

China − CPI (Official)Premise − Food Staples Index

Granger Causality: 0.94Correlation: 0.93

Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

India − CPI (Official)Premise − Food Staples Index

Granger Causality: 0.81Correlation: 0.89


there are too many strata to measure everything


“You need to focus on quality. You’ll be better off with a small but carefully structured sample rather than a large sloppy sample.”

— Hal Varian


@premisedata


structure data 2014: how microdata can say a lot about macroeconomics, david soloff

Technology

food prices senegal

food shortages

rising food prices yemen

govt pressures food

high cattle feed prices

high fuel

tortilla riots west

current data