structural changes of global poultry production and the impact on the environment, including on...
TRANSCRIPT
Structural changes of global poultry production and the impact on the environment, including on poultry
genetic resources
Irene Hoffmann and Pierre Gerber, Animal Production and Health Division, FAO
Guidance for the poultry sector – issues and options Joint FAO-WPSA Symposium at EPC, Tours, France, 24 August 2010
Contents
• Poultry production and consumption
• Structural change• Environmental impact• Poultry genetic diversity • Conclusions
Poultry production and consumption
100
200
300
400
500
Index
num
ber:
1961=
100
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Roots and tubers CerealsMeat MilkEggs
Per caput consumption of major food items in developing countries – kg per caput per year (index numbers 1961=100)
Consumption of livestock products is growing rapidly
Calorie and protein consumption from poultry
• 90 mill t meat, 63 mill t eggs (2007)• 28% of world meat production• 2.5% consumption increase globally, 3.4% in
LDC to 2030• low consumer price
Growth in production: animal numbers and yields
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Numbers Yield Numbers Yield Numbers Yield Numbers Yield Numbers Yield
Pig Poultry Cattle Milk Eggs
Ave
rag
e an
nu
al g
row
th (
%)
East and Southeast Asia Latin America and the Caribbean South Asia Near East and North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa
(1980-2007)
Structural change
Contribution of livestock production systems to food production
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
beef mutton pork poultrymeat
milk eggs
industrial
mixed irrigated
mixed rainfed
grazing
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
beef mutton pork poultrymeat
milk eggs
industrial
mixed irrigated
mixed rainfed
grazing
Global Developing countries
68% of eggs and 74% of poultry meat globally from industrial systems
data: 2001-2003, Steinfeld et al 2006
Estimated global distribution of poultry
Estimated distribution of industrially produced poultry populations
Geographical concentration of poultry production
Three types of clusters
• Close to markets (poor transport infrastructure)• Close to feed resources (well developed transport
infrastructure)• In areas characterized by low human population density
(environmental regulations)
Changes in geographic concentration of hens in Brazil from 1992 - 2001
Spatial distribution around Bangkok
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Distance to Bangkok (km)
Hum
an /
anim
al d
ensi
ty
0
10
20
30
40
Mea
n n
orm
alis
ed
cro
p p
rod
uctio
n
human pop (p/km2/10)
pigs (nb/km2)
chicken (nb/km2/10)
maize (tons/km2)
soybean (10*tons/km2)
cassava (tons/km2/2)
Humans, livestock and feed-crops, 2001
Feed
Growing intensities: based on expanding concentrate use
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
developing developed
fish meal
roots/tubers
oilcakes
oilseeds
brans
grains
feed concentrate use in 2002, million tons
Increasing trade of feedstuff
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
1973 1983 1993 2003
China
Asia
World
0
10,000,000
20,000,000
30,000,000
40,000,000
50,000,000
60,000,000
70,000,000
80,000,000
90,000,000
1973 1983 1993 2003
China
Asia
World
Maize imports (tons)Soybean imports (tons)
developing countries: trade deficit in coarse grain
Livestock production and ecosystems
Livestock production and ecosystems • Land
– 26% of emerged land used as pasture/rangeland– 33% of crop land dedicated to feed production
• Water– 8% of water use mostly for feed– alters the status of the resource (quality and quantity)
• Biodiversity– wildlife: follow on effects of habitat degradation and destruction– narrowing agricultural biodiversity
• Climate– 18% of anthropogenic emissions when taking a food chain approach– main causes: deforestation, manure management and enteric fermentation
Projected poultry manure production in Vietnam
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
Total Backyard andsmall scale
Medium scale Large scaleindustrial
Ducks
Manure production 2003in tonsManure production 2015in tons
Nutrient overload
Estimated contribution of livestock to total P2O5 supply on agricultural land, in areas presenting a P2O5 mass balance of more than 10 kg per hectare (1998 to 2000).
http://www.sws.uiuc.edu/docs/hypoxia/satimgMorePic.asp?pic=HypoWebTrueColor.jpg
Trouble at the mouth of the Mississippi
GHG emissions from livestock: a food chain approach
STEP IN FOOD CHAIN ESTIMATED EMISSIONS
ESTIMATED CONTRIBUTION BY SPECIES
(giga-tonnes)
(percent of sector)
Cattle Pigs Poultry Small rum’ts
LULUC 2.50 36 *** * * ns
Feed production 0.40 7 * ** ** ns
Animal production 1.90 25 **** * * **
Manure mgmt 2.20 31 ** *** ns ns
Processing and transport
0.03 1 * * *** ns
LCA for 1 MT of broiler
Pelletier, 2008
Livestock related LUC: Deforestation in the Neotropics
http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/GraphicResources.aspx
Main direct drivers of change of
biodiversity in ecosystems
Poultry genetic diversity
4%
7% 7%
66%
10%9%
8%
89%Local1 946
International 160
Regional 80
Local and transboundary avian breeds
Origin of chicken breeds, by subregion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Centra
l Asia
East A
sia
S-E A
sia
South
Asia
N & W
Afri
ca
East A
frica
South
ern
Africa
Europ
e
E-Eur
ope &
Cauc
asus
Near &
Midd
le E
ast
Caribbe
an
Centra
l Am
erica
South
Am
erica
North A
mer
ica
SW P
acific
international regional local
Trends within breeding industry
• higher capital investment - vulnerability– high cost for Genomic selection– regulation/standards: biosecurity, welfare etc
• merger and concentration – economies of scale– implications for genetic diversity?
• vertical integration, spread risk downstream• strategic research partnerships with (public)
universities, access to public R&D funds
Productivity differential (production/head)
1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
Eggs, primary 117 95 63 47 45 53
Poultry meat 24 19 20 27 29 31
Partial factor productivity differential between selected developed countries with commercial breeding programmes in all species, and the rest of the world (Production/head) selected developed countries: European Union, USA, Canada, Australia, New Zealand. data: FAO STAT, 2009
Implications for developing countries
• < 3 % of total global livestock R&D investment to poultry
• increasing divide between scientific haves and non-haves – high market access barriers
• import of GP/PS stock or day-old chickens– low incentives to build own breeding programmes;
• little characterization, conservation
Countries reporting breeding programmes
Structured breeding programmes
Chicken 20
Turkey 5
Ducks 8
Geese 4
FAO, 2007
Status of poultry GR conservation
• 26 countries with in situ / ex situ poultry conservation programmes– 24 chicken– 7 duck– 2 geese– 2 turkey
• 11 cryo-conservation programmes for semen, tissue or DNA
• 50% run by government
FAO, 2007
Proportion of the world’s breeds by risk status
Mammalian
5% 1%
8%
2%
11%
38%
35%
All species
7%1%
10%
3%
9%
34%
36%
Avian
12%
1%
16%
4%
2%
25%
40%
critical
critical-maintained
endangered
endangered-maintained
extinct
not at risk
unknown
9 % extinct20 % at risk36 % unknown
FAO, 2009
2% extinct31% at risk40% unknown
Risk status of chicken breeds, by subregion
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Centra
l Asia
East A
sia
S-E A
sia
South
Asia
N & W
Afri
ca
East A
frica
South
ern
Africa
Europ
e
E-Eur
ope &
Cauc
asus
Near &
Midd
le E
ast
Caribbe
an
Centra
l Am
erica
South
Am
erica
North A
mer
ica
SW P
acific
unknown extinct at risk not at risk
Threats to poultry genetic resources
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Developed Developing
Status of animal health
Poor conservation strategies
Lack of functional institutionalframeworks
Weak livestock sector policiesand strategies
Socio-political changes andinstabilities
Loss of human resources
Replacement of breed functions
Economic and market drivers
310 responses, first threat for breeds being at-risk
Conclusions
Environment• Protein-energy return on investment 18% for broiler, 7% for
eggs (Pelletier, 2008)• In most cases, farm level environmental issues are limited• FCR reduction = reduced land used to grow feed + GHG
emission/output • Most of the poultry sector’s environmental impacts are
associated with the feed base : deforestation, intensive agriculture, nutrient and water cycles, esp. in regions characterised by high animal concentration
Genetic diversity• High share of transboundary breeds • Intensification and commercialization lead to loss of diversity • Conservation supported by hobby breeders and socio-
cultural functions
http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/A5.html